I’m going to take a different approach to this Picnic Basket than I normally do.
First, although I have on occasion included Free Agency in my Baskets, it’s not something I typically do. But it’s something I will endeavor for this Basket, because, well, because I’m just so on top of it this year.
Second, I’ve sometimes mentioned alternatives in the past, but I’m going to be much more speculative with that than in the past because we have some gaping holes which have to be filled. Finally, in the draft, I’m not as much locked into trying to get a prospect slotted into a particular pick, particularly later in the draft. That’s because I’m convinced the Bears will trade down from at least one of their two second picks (if not both). Who we trade with and what those deals are are just too hard to project. Consequentially, my later round picks might actually be projected higher but I’m not worried about it as I believe that we’ll have more intermediate picks in the third and fourth rounds. The players I project in my Picnic Basket will reflect that assumption.
With that in mind, let’s begin with my projections and alternatives for free agency.
Resignings:
High Priority—
These are the guys I’d like to see resigned before Free Agency begins.
Danny Trevathan(2 years at 8 million plus).
I think he likes it in Chicago and knows that his best chance for another ring. And let’s face it, who’s going to give him much more than that with the time he’s missed in Chicago alone. Maybe give him some incentives for starts, but he wanted much more than that, I’d let him walk and look to resign Kwit.
Roy Robertson Harris (1 year at 2.144 million).
That’s the cost of his original round tender for a RFA. We might lose him for this, but probably not. We’d be able to match any other tender to him.
Deon Bush (2 years at 3 million plus).
I like Bush. In fact, I believe that he might be a better fit for our defense than Ha Ha was. He’s more physical and a surer tackler. He knows the defense and deserves a real shot at earning the starting job. If he wins that starting role, give him a 100 K a game for a contract which come out to 3.1 million. For a starting safety, that is reasonable.
Let Them Walk:
Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Nick Kwiatkowski, Sherrick McManis, Chase Daniel, Ted Larsen, T. J. Clemmings, Bradley Sowell.
For the first four, I’d like to thank them for their service and let them go. Kwit and McManis is especially sad to see go. And although Kwit would be good insurance in case Danny gives us trouble renegotiating, his lack of speed is just too much of a detriment to deal with on a consistent basis. And Sherrick, it’s been swell, but it’s just too much to pay for a strictly a special teamer. Finally, Ha Ha, sorry. It’s been real, but too bad you play Eddie’s position. We need a true Strong Safety back there. Clemmings and Sowell never did anything to keep them around except maybe for losing weight. Lol
Low Priority:
Rashard Coward, Isaiah Irving, Deandre Houston-Carson, J.P. Holz, Aaron Lynch, Cornelius Lucas, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Nick Williams, Patrick Scales, Brent Urban.
Of these, KPL, Nick Williams, and Patrick Scales (as our long sapper) are the ones I most want to see back. The first four are RFAs so they should be back. It’s time for DHC to step into McMannis’ shoes. Personally, I thought that KPL looked as good as Kwit inside when he had the chance. Much more range on him. I’m just not sure if he can call signals. And Nick Williams at times seemed to be the only defensive lineman doing anything once Hicks went down. I think those two are the two most important resignings of this group. Lucas played well enough to be given more time. Coward, I don’t know. Didn’t show a lot but he still beat out Larsen. Isaiah I can give one more year to show something, and Lynch I could bring back on a deal similar to last year’s deal. None of these guys are absolutely critical to us. If somebody was to snatch them away, that would only increase our chances of a compensatory pick next year.
Renegotiation:
Leonard Floyd—
I love Leonard Floyd but even I must confess that 13 million is a lot for him. I’d like to see us renegotiate with him to a longer term deal that comes out to around 9-10 million per year. I do think that given time, Floyd will develop his pass rushing capability. He’s already started to add new moves and some power to his repertoire. A back loaded deal should be able to free up another 4-5 million for us.
With our that out of the way, let’s look at some acquisitions
New Acquisitions:
High Priority:
Eric Ebron, TE, (7.5 Million Per)
Nagy’s offense desperately needs a TE. The Chiefs have Travis Kelce; the Eagles have Ertz. Despite spending 22 million on Burton and a second rounder on Shaheen, Nagy’s had nothing but a medevac unit’s totes. Nagy desperately needs a consistent and healthy Tight End. I think that that could be Eric Ebron.
I must confess that when I originally thought about the TE issue, I was all in on Austin Hooper. I just wanted that consistency. That guy has only missed five games in four years despite having a MCL last year. And he has caught 70 plus balls in two consecutive seasons. He’s a model of consistency. And then Green Bay jumped in.
The more I researched this, the more I thought, ‘Fine, be that way. We should just drive the price up on them and then walk away. You see, I’ve found that Ebron has been a helluva lot healthier than I presumed. He hasn’t had a major injury yet: no ACL, no bad shoulder, nothing like that. All of his injuries have been hamstring or ankle injuries. After missing half of last year with an ankle, he’s only missed eight other games in his six year career. Speaking of which, he has two years more experience on two different teams than Hooper has, despite being only a year older.
What it comes downs to though is the tape. I mean face it, if you want to compare the threats of Ertz and Kelce, Ebron is a much more viable comparison than Hooper is. And you’d be getting him for less money. Dynamically, Ebron is by far the best receiving TE in Free Agency this year. Next to him, Hooper’s clips are a yawn. And oh, Hunter Henry might be the best all round Free Agent TE, but he sees the field about as often as Shaheen does, which is just a hair more than Tyler Eiffert does. We need a real threat who can stay on the field. I think that is Eric Ebron.
Besides, there’s also that North Carolina connection with Mitchell.
Marcus Mariota, QB, (10 Million Plus):
Call me an Oregon Homer, which I am, if you want, but I just get sick to death of hearing of possible trades for the likes of Derek Carr and Andy Dalton when there’s a QB with the potential of Marcus Mariota sitting out there just waiting to be claimed. The picture above is appropriate for Marcus’ Titan tenure as he was under constant pressure there, enduring seasons with 38, 25, 23, 48, and 25 (in six and a half games) sacks, while coping with five different offensive coordinators in as many years. And it’s not like he totally sucked there either. He led them to three straight 9-7 seasons. They lost out on the playoffs in two of those years as Marcus was lost at the end of those seasons due to injury. In the other, he led the to divisional round in the playoffs before they lost to the Patriots.
While it’s true that Ryan Tannehill outperformed Marcus this past season as he led the Titans to the playoffs, much of that is due to the fact that the Titans went strong to their running game to relieve the pressure being brought on the QB and Derek Henry started to take off. There’s also the very real possibility that the Titans “David Carred” Marcus a bit. 25 sacks in only six and a half games is ridiculous. Yet even then he still had his moments. He was benched after throwing for 7 TDs and only 2 picks and he had one game with a 133.4 QB Rating and another with a 129.7 QB Rating. The promise is there.
But instead we hear talk about us giving up resources for Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. With Mitchell Trubisky right now, we don’t know if we have our franchise QB yet. Far from it. And neither Carr nor Dalton is going to be that for us. Marcus very well could be. He’s a perfect fit for Nagy’s offense. Hell, it’s very similar to what he ran while at Oregon. It’s time to take Trusbisky’s training wheels off and give him the ultimatum—either do it or we have somebody else on the roster who will become what we’ve tried to set you up for. We have a chance to go all in on a potential franchise QB. We should take it.
Why would Marcus come to Chicago? A couple of reasons. First, we have to make it clear that he will have a real shot at beating out Mitchell for the starting gig. We offer to pay him 10 million plus one million for every start. That could come out to a one year deal of 26 million but more likely 20 million as he sits on the bench for the first six games or so. After the year, we’ll have to enter into a long term franchise QB deal with either Mitchell or Marcus, depending on who earns it, if either of them do. Second, we let him work under John Defilipo. Defilipo should be able to greatly improve Marcus’ technique, and whatever else suffered under the pressure at Tennessee. Pace went after Marcus once, I would love to see him go after him again. He has a real shot at him.
Alternative: Case Keenum.
Unfortunately, I think it’s more likely that we’ll bring in a guy like Keenum to support Trubisky for about three million rather than bring in real competition for him. And I’ll be left praying that Trubisky finally puts it all together while Marcus goes some place else to become a bona fide franchise QB, possibly New England. Heavy sigh.
Low Priority:
I call these low priority signings because they’re really depth signings while also providing possible competition for the starting spot. As such, they’re signings that can be put on hold, maybe even after the compensatory signings deadline occurs. Think Ha Ha or Larsen last year. In fact, with the Ha Ha signing, I think we might have found a unique approach to these types of prospects—get reputable players on your roster to recruit them, the way that Eddie recruited Ha Ha last year.
Karl Joseph, SS, (3-4 Million):
The more I see of this guy, the more I want Khalil to talk him into coming here. He’s not a turnover machine by any stretch. He has only 4 picks in four years. That’s what Eddie is for. What he is is an enforcer that we missed for so much of last year. Check out his clip and tell me you wouldn’t want him paired up with Jackson. The Raiders were apparently going to move on from him in ’18, and then in ’19 he injured his foot in the ninth game and was lost for the season. So he should be able to be had for a reasonable amount. If not him, Vonn Bell of New Orleans is another strong safety I’m really interested in.
Kendall Fuller, CB, (2 Million)
I pretty comfortable with Kyle Fuller and Kevin Tolliver as our starting CBs and with Buster Skrine and Duke Shelly as our slot corners. I’m curious how much last year’s seventh round pick, Stephen Denmark, has improved and how good our recent CFL signing Tre Roberson is. We did give him a pretty substantial 215 K in guaranteed money for a CFL signing. Still we could use some more depth and some more competition for a starting role at reasonable compensation.
Right now, there are a number of options at Free Agent CB who should bring in a modest signing number: From Eli Apple to Darqueze Dennard, to Jason Verrett, to Vernon Cockerell and Trae Waynes to resigning our own Prince. But how great would it be if Kyle to talk his brother into signing for 1.5 to 2 million plus incentives?
Last year, Kendall struggled a bit as he dealt with some injuries. As Bear fans, we all know how that was with Kyle a few years ago. But Kendall came through down the stretch as he started feeling better and finished by nabbing the game ending interception in the Super Bowl. The nice thing about Kendall is that although he’s performed best at slot corner, he’s also played wide CB and last year played free safety for the Chiefs. He could plus in at any of those positions for us. That’s a true depth signing.
With Washington:
With Kansas City:
Well, there’s my absolute brilliant take on Free Agency. Talk about stealing a Picnic Basket! I’ll post my Post Combine Draft Picnic Basket later this week.
) versatile, rugged on STs
