The Disconnect

Moriarty · Fri May 08, 2020 1:27 pm

Everyone here has really rosy expectations for the 2020 Bears - witness the schedule thread and win poll.

The nationals feel very, very, very differently.

NBCSports (Adam Hoge, a local and a Bears fan): 10/32

PFF: 18/32
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pffs-too-e ... the-top-10

Bleacher Report: 21/32
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/287 ... -offseason

Sporting News 24/32
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... n2s4u1dx2m

ESPN (Dan Hanzus): 25/32
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... 2020-draft

CBSSports(Pete Prisco): 26/32
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl- ... offseason/

WalterFootball: 28/32
https://walterfootball.com/draft2021.php

I don't see any major non-Chicago, non-Bear fan who has them anywhere in the top 16.

Now, usually when there's a major disconnect between what the team fans think and the outsiders think, it's just the locals being a bunch of homers. Not always, but a strong majority of the time.
Last year with Mitch was an example. Bear fans were heavily sold on him after 2018, the national media wasn't. A lot of Bear fans savaged the nationals for being 'so stupid'...and they were entirely right.

In this situation, though, it's got me thinking. Maybe I'm just spending all my time in a bubble on this board. But my immediate inclination is leaning to feeling like this is a rare case where the locals are right and the outsiders are way off.

dplank · Fri May 08, 2020 1:52 pm

I agree. The problem with the national media is that they base everything they think on the upcoming season on the previous one - even though everyone knows that's is simply NEVER the case. (It's one reason why I never get too excited or depressed about strength of schedule, because that "strength" is measured by the previous years results).

So I look at our team and think, at the simplest level, that we managed an 8-8 record even though A) We had if not the worst, nearly the worst QB play in the NFL and B) Our most important player outside of Mack, Akiem Hicks, went down for the year as did a number of other quality starters for us and C) We had the worst TE corps in the NFL, partially driven by injury. So the national writers see our 12-4 record as an aberration, and maybe it was since we stayed unusually healthy all year, but I see 8-8 as just as much of an aberration. Seeing Hicks go down as well as BOTH starting TE's (U and Y) for the entire year just killed us.

As I look at this year, we will almost certainly be better on defense barring major injury. Hicks, Trevathan return from injury, and we added Quinn which is a huge upgrade to Floyd. We also have continuity as Pagano moves into Year 2 with this team and returns nearly every starter. We were good last year on defense, we'll be very good and maybe great this year. There's no way, again barring injury, that we don't do at least as well as 8-8 from last year just looking at our defense alone and assuming the offense stays at the bottom 5 like last year. And yet, I don't think that will happen either! We completely overhauled our TE room, new starters at both U and Y, and we set a new floor for QB play by adding Foles so if Trubisky shits the bed again we have somewhere to turn. I can't see us being bottom 5 again.

So with a very simply view of where we are, we appear to be heading for improvement on our 8-8 record. Just a 2 game improvement puts us at 10-6, I think that's conservative. Those national writers who see us going backwards from 8-8? I just don't get it.

RichH55 · Fri May 08, 2020 2:28 pm

I would think that Mitch will run more this year (he doesn't have the luxury of trying to protect himself) and that will make him better right away

I also think Foles is light years better than Chase Daniels

Can't predict injuries though

Richie · Fri May 08, 2020 9:03 pm

Whose the guy who had 31st? THIRTY----FIRST!!!!!?????

Behind JACKSONVILLE!

I simply don't get it. You don't like our off-season, fine. However, we are 20-12 over the past two seasons and lost nobody. Added a couple of guys that definitely don't makes us "worse". Graham is clearly better than any TE last season and Quinn a big upgrade from Floyd as a pass rusher. WHO DID WE LOSE? TAYLOR GABRIEL!? lol

The team is 20-12 because of the D. It's still all together. In fact, it's more together than it was last year when we lost several key starters. At worst, it's going to be a lateral move. I am mind blown by the national consensus about this team.

Richie · Fri May 08, 2020 9:06 pm

dplank wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 1:52 pm I agree. The problem with the national media is that they base everything they think on the upcoming season on the previous one

Then, why the hell are we projected 31st and 27th by people? We were 8-8 and that was good for the 14th overall finish in the NFL (our pick was 19th overall that LVR got).

Z Bear · Sat May 09, 2020 7:19 am

The national media tends to rate football teams on one position, the QB. All the national guys are looking at Trubisky and think the Bears suck.

RichH55 · Sat May 09, 2020 8:53 am

Z Bear wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 7:19 am The national media tends to rate football teams on one position, the QB. All the national guys are looking at Trubisky and think the Bears suck.

And that's the thing - I'm not even sure that is right on "only evaluating QB"

Either Mitch is going to be better than he was last year (and it could be as simple as - He runs more - which absolutely worked well in 2018)

Or Foles is better than him

southdakbearfan · Sat May 09, 2020 4:50 pm

The media also gets hung up on who "wins" the offseason, which rarely correlates to actual success in the season.

dplank · Sat May 09, 2020 5:00 pm

RichH55 wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 8:53 am
Z Bear wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 7:19 am The national media tends to rate football teams on one position, the QB. All the national guys are looking at Trubisky and think the Bears suck.
And that's the thing - I'm not even sure that is right on "only evaluating QB"

Either Mitch is going to be better than he was last year (and it could be as simple as - He runs more - which absolutely worked well in 2018)

Or Foles is better than him

Exactly, we have a performance floor of Nick Foles now. Whether you think he can make another run in a friendly offense or not, he's clearly setting an improvement mark for Mitch/Nagy. Either way we're better at QB than we were last year.

Hero · Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm

Richie wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 9:06 pm
dplank wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 1:52 pm I agree. The problem with the national media is that they base everything they think on the upcoming season on the previous one
Then, why the hell are we projected 31st and 27th by people? We were 8-8 and that was good for the 14th overall finish in the NFL (our pick was 19th overall that LVR got).

The Cowboys were 8-8 and they are in the top 10 on several power rankings.

spudbear · Sun May 10, 2020 1:33 pm

Hero wrote: ↑Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm
Richie wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 9:06 pm

Then, why the hell are we projected 31st and 27th by people? We were 8-8 and that was good for the 14th overall finish in the NFL (our pick was 19th overall that LVR got).
The Cowboys were 8-8 and they are in the top 10 on several power rankings.

Good catch Hero with the Cowpokes. What was a league-leading offense sputtered at the end of last season, and they decided to spend big $$ on Prescott and Cooper as well as the fat Irishman HC. To save cap space they dropped one of their best pass rushers (buh bye Quinn said Jerry, Hullo! said Pace) from an already shaky defense. Their LB corps is weak and their DB's are at best average if not suspect.

I don't mind the low expectations from the rest of the nattering national nabobs in the sports news, as the big story they've run with is "QB Trouble in Chicago" from the Foles acquisition. We'll have bout 3 months to hash it out before TC, but the Bears have a good chance to reclaim the NFC-N crown.

SgtPerry · Mon May 11, 2020 3:30 am

Let's hope that the players would not be pleased by those predictions/rankings.

Umbali · Mon May 11, 2020 7:33 am

I think national is way off for all the reasons stated. As a side note, if this turns into a shortened year, and we shit the bed, it would be a great time for it to happen in time for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields lol

Moriarty · Tue May 19, 2020 4:30 pm

I was starting to toy with the idea of putting some $$$ down on this, even with all the extra variables involved in a (possible) 2020 season, so I checked the Vegas over/unders

They aren't buying the national perspective, either
https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/05/08/2020- ... s-gambling

Chicago Bears
8.5 (Over +115/Under -135)

IE · Tue May 19, 2020 5:11 pm

Last year we hated that many predicted "mean reversion" for the D. It happened, there were unfortunate injuries, and it overshot.

Even so the team was still good and in most games, with one of the most historically bad offensive performances across a season. That is with a young coach making some mistakes, a mis-firing oline that played worse than their ability, literally no TE play for more than half a season, and a QB who didn't handle the pressure well.

Just average play on offense and a return of average luck and this team is a contender.

WagonForce · Thu May 21, 2020 2:50 pm

IE wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 5:11 pm Last year we hated that many predicted "mean reversion" for the D. It happened, there were unfortunate injuries, and it overshot.

Even so the team was still good and in most games, with one of the most historically bad offensive performances across a season. That is with a young coach making some mistakes, a mis-firing oline that played worse than their ability, literally no TE play for more than half a season, and a QB who didn't handle the pressure well.

Just average play on offense and a return of average luck and this team is a contender.

You've captured the basis of my 10 win prediction for this upcoming season IE.

Last year's offensive performance was unbelievable. I don't even care about the stats (though I'm sure if I could handle looking in detail they are awful), the eyeball test was all it took. Part of me is curious what the outcome would have been if last year's Bears offense could have squared off against the Mel Tucker era Bears defense. My gut reaction is that the combined mass of utter ineptitude would form a black hole that would quickly devour Soldier Field, the city of Chicago, and then...mercifully, would make it's way up north to Canada where it would put me out of my misery.

Nonetheless, somehow the team finished 8-8. This is with a defense that regressed to a material degree (though the team did get a lift from better place kicking, which helped). I think (and pray) we will see a better offense this year. There is also reason to believe the defense will better.

This team could surprise a lot of people.