Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

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Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 12:39 pm

Bringing this back up because some new data has been made available on this subject, it's directly applicable and shows a long historical trend.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/bears ... run-inside

Over the last 20 years, the Bears have near the bottom (frequently either 31st or 32nd) in running the ball up the middle, and in short yardage. This is almost 100% on the OL. They even detail how Monty was really, really good at breaking tackles and SHOULD have had more success, but the blocking was SO putrid that he never got a chance.

Most folks on this board disagreed with my take that the Bears have not invested or valued the OL relative to other positions. I'm not finger pointing, counting, or taking names here as I don't mind disagreements and I'm not trying for some "gotcha" moment, I honestly don't remember who was arguing with me on this point.

So for anyone who took the counter position there, I highly recommend you read this and I'm curious if it changes your thinking at all. How can a franchise be THIS bad over THIS LONG a time period unless they've been negligent at addressing the OL?
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 12:57 pm

I don't disagree at all on the results. But instead of "didn't try" or "don't value" my POV is "they actually did try - but failed". I guess it could be said that Pace gambled by paying journeymen to become good OTs versus investing draft capital in thoroughbreds - which would be the more well-worn, safer path.

I would say Pace took a what I would call a "pragmatic risk" this offseason by seeing a couple of questionable contracts (OTs) through and trying to mitigate that with new coaching and game planning. It is a pretty big risk for Pace - his career with the Bears could hinge on it.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 1:10 pm

The Bears' inability to run the ball for the tough inside yardage is historically bad.

In the 21 years they've tracked it, the Bears have been in the bottom three in the league at 30th or worse 15 times. They've been last in the league or next to last 12 times.
That's pretty horrific

I don't know if that really speaks to the whole line - probably just the interior.

I remember during the Angelo years, going nuts almost every single year, that he couldn't see the dire need at T.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 1:28 pm

IE wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:57 pm
But instead of "didn't try" or "don't value" my POV is "they actually did try - but failed". I guess it could be said that Pace gambled by paying journeymen to become good OTs versus investing draft capital in thoroughbreds - which would be the more well-worn, safer path.
It's fair to say there's a distinction between "didn't try" and "tried, but failed".

But at the same time, you can't just lump every effort together into one "tried" category.
There's serious efforts and prioritization and there's not very serious efforts and prioritization.

For example, if your aging RT with an escapable contract sucked last year and your response is to bring in a R5 rookie and a career spot-starting journeyman at vet minimum to "provide competition", that's not really a serious attempt to fix the problem or showing that you value OL. If you draft an experienced T in R1 or 2, that's a serious attempt to fix the problem.

If you want to answer the question of whether OL is valued or not, you have to look at resources (money and picks) spent, over an extended time and/or in response to a specific obvious need. Then compare that to league average and/or analyze semi-subjectively for reasonability.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 2:49 pm

Yea I agree with this take. Of course we tried, everyone tries. But we must know these stats and how badly we've been up front, and yet each year we don't seem to aggressively get after fixing it - we do elsewhere though, hence why I say we don't value it.

For example, we had 4 high first round picks recently, none were spent on OL even though it's been a glaring weakness on the team. Another example, we were tight against the cap this year, but we still went out and signed Quinn to a major deal, making our spend a LB as a team absolutely massive/out of whack. Yet despite our OL being absolutely dreadful last year, we pass on signing any of 7 or 8 top flight lineman that would have helped us TREMENDOUSLY. We CHOSE to bolster our defense, which is already good, and go bargain basement shopping for our OL both in FA and the draft. That is a CHOICE and it shows how Pace values certain positions. Year after year, GM after GM, we keep doing this. We haven't been able to power run the football in as long as I can remember, I'm freaking sick of it. Watching teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Baltimore, etc do it year after year and we remain dreadful - it's just very frustrating that our GM's don't seem to understand that NOTHING WORKS WITHOUT BLOCKING.

:frustrated: :frustrated: :frustrated:

Also, this pokes a hole at our groupthink that Whitehair/Daniels are the strength of our OL doesn't it? I go along with it, but in the back of my mind I keep thinking to myself....we get NO PUSH EVER up front, why does everyone love Whitehair so much? Our guys must grade on pass pro 80% and run blocking 20%.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 3:00 pm

If you want to answer the question of whether OL is valued or not, you have to look at resources (money and picks) spent, over an extended time and/or in response to a specific obvious need. Then compare that to league average and/or analyze semi-subjectively for reasonability.
This isn't precise either though. The reason being is that once you land a good player, then you can stand pat for a long time and not have to continue investing in that spot. Once your OL is set, you just don't have spend as much draft of FA capital there. I'm not suggesting a better way, just saying it isn't perfect any way you want to try and look at it. On our side, we've not been set for 30 freaking years, and yet we don't get after the problem in a meaningful, aggressive way.

When I saw those stats man.....wow. I knew we were bad up front and never seemed to be able to push anyone off the ball, but that is a goddamn embarrassment. That stat should be made into posters and placed all through Halas Hall IMO. When a trend is that long and that consistent, there's a fundamental reason behind it. To me, the obvious answer is that we don't value the position enough to correct it.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 3:57 pm

Yeah, no arguments. There is a difference between someone who tries and fails and one who doesn't care and fails. But it doesn't matter. I guess I got caught on the "value" word and it took my eye off of the important fact - which is they've failed regardless.

Right now I have my Papa Bear t-shirt on that says "run the damn ball". I love a good running game, and it's been missing so long from the Bears. I've always hated pass-first offenses, and I think that is part of it... the Bears have been trying to "modernize" their offense for all this time, is the truth... when in reality they got away from just plain fundamental football (with a few exception seasons e.g. with TJ and Ced).
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 5:53 pm

After 2018 I got the impression Pace felt like the OL was adequate, a unit that helped bring the Bears within a double doink of the NFC championship. He put his chips in with the OT's he had, was comfortable with Whitehair/Daniels AND Long looked like he could be able to squeeze a few more years out. It's a damn shame that the Bears could not build an OL with Long as an anchor. So many other holes on the team had to be patched.

I agree it is maddening and frustrating that the Bears do not and cannot knock a DL off the line for a couple of yards when needed. When was the last time on a crucial 4th and short that you wondered what gadget play they would run, rather than just pound it down the middle? The Bears tradition of three yards and a cloud of dust has turned into stopped at the line and littered OL.

I suppose if there were draft regrets for Pace it could be not taking an OT in 2018 when they drafted Roquan Smith. Most everyone was hoping Nelson would drop to the Bears but did not. His teammate McGlinchey was picked just after Smith. Otherwise they missed out on an OT in Kolton Miller who was picked 15th by the Raiders.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 9:00 pm

I think we've certainly TRIED to address the OL in the draft. Since 2008, three of our nine first round picks have been offensive linemen. Two of our last six second rounders have been offensive linemen, and one of our last three third rounders have been OL. Part of the problem is sacrificing four first round picks since 2008 for Cutler and Mack.

This might bring some relief though. Here's a clip of Ifedi play OG toward the end of his rookie year. https://twitter.com/i/status/1262503894632083462

It's encouraging at least.

I do expect a first or second going to OL next year though.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 pm

Also, a lot of our running woes up the middle under Fox could be attributed to predictability. For four years, it seemed like that was all he tried to do.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 10:01 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 pm
Also, a lot of our running woes up the middle under Fox could be attributed to predictability. For four years, it seemed like that was all he tried to do.
The trend charts back to 1999 Yogi. This is a more systemic issue.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 11:32 am

dplank wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:01 am
Yogi da Bear wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 pm
Also, a lot of our running woes up the middle under Fox could be attributed to predictability. For four years, it seemed like that was all he tried to do.
The trend charts back to 1999 Yogi. This is a more systemic issue.
My personal opinion on the core cause of the repeated failure to build a strong Oline has been Chicago's desperate attempt to install a "modern" (pass-first) offense. I believe it resulted in poor coaching choices and scheme choices, influencing personnel choices and also obviously in-game play selection choices.

Nobody can tell me that the Bears *couldn't* run some power running plays during this time - the people who were brought in to "modernize" just clearly chose to as Lovie used to say "go in a different direction".

Just using last year as an example... Holtz demonstrated he could be a real help and they could line up in I formation and run the ball. They just chose not to. And it is because Nagy wasn't brought in to run the I formation. Because like I said the focus has been on being "modern" more than winning.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 2:01 pm

I think it's more complicated than that, and a lot of it comes from predictability. I've posted before that historically our offense has fluctuated madly between ultra conservative and wide open. I think this is true.

In response to my comment on Fox, DP mentioned that this has been going on since 1999. But also don't forget the three years of Shoop where it was up the middle, up the middle, up the middle.... And don't forget Ron Turner, although not as ultra conservative as either Fox or Shoop, he was still pretty conservative.

The problem isn't so much that we neglect the run but that we have wild pendulum swings in our offensive philosophy. Interspaced with these conservative offenses, we've had wide open affairs, like Crowton, Martz, and Trestman where the running game was all but forgotten. The problem isn't that we neglect the run game so much as that we either completely rely on it or completely forget. In both circumstances we become too predictable.

This is why I want Nagy to learn how to run the ball, and keep with it, if it's working. I don't want yet another ultra conservative offense brought in to compensate for our current trickery. Can anybody say "Mike Tice?" No way do I want to go back to something like that, or even Shoop or Fox. Fuck no.

As to our draft resources used for offensive linemen, I think it was a real problem under Jerry Angelo. After his first draft where he took Colombo in the first and Metcalf in the third, he didn't take another offensive lineman in the first three rounds for five consecutive years. Then he panicked and took two offensive lineman with his next two first rounders (separated by two years because of the Cutler trade). Problem is that neither of those picks were anywhere worthy of being first rounders, like Stan Thomas.

Pace seems to be addressing the OL much like he's addressed other areas of need. First, he hits it with bodies with mid to lower priced free agents. Then he hits it with draft picks. Then he hits it with higher priced veteran talent. Think of all the bodies he brought in at kicker. Think of how he addressed OLB with first the McPhee signing, then the drafting of Floyd, then the Mack trade and the Quinn signing, all while bringing in guys like Lynch.

Pace has been willing to address the OL in the draft with two second rounders, a third, a fifth, a sixth, and two sevenths, despite having limited resources because of the Mack trade. Only one year did he fail to draft an offensive lineman and that's because he only five picks and our line seemed set (mistake). He's since brought in two lower tier free agent lineman in Spriggs and Ifedi, both of whom are huge upgrades over the free agent linemen like Kush and Larsen that he's had in the past. With a fuller draft card next year, I expect to see another first or second offensive lineman.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 2:54 pm

Pace also passed 4 straight times with Top 10 picks to use one on an OT. That's typically the type of draft capital you need to commit to get a top notch OT, else you end up having to spend gobs of money in FA, which he's also refused to do. I just don't buy it Yogi, scanning through that list since 1999 should make any Bears fan sick to their stomachs. It's the ultimate "pussy" identifier for offenses, it's not something we should settle for as fans. If you want to win with defense, great, but you can't be literally the worst rushing team in the NFL over the last 20+ years in combo with that. You need to be a decent running team to win with defense. This year was a perfect microcosm. We have a gaping hole at RG, quality prospects are available in Rd2 of the draft to address that need, we pass and through two meaningless 7th round picks at it. A future HOF player in Trent Williams is available FOR NEXT TO NOTHING and a MODEST 12.5M cap hit this year, and we pass and let the 49ers get him. But we commit that same amount of draft/trade capital and cap spending on Nick Foles? Or even more on the cash side to Robert Quinn? No. No no no. I do not buy the line that Pace is working the OL as much as he's working other positions, he simply is NOT.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 4:52 pm

I wouldn't put too much stock in him NOT getting an offensive lineman with those four top 10 picks. They were practically salivating over Quentin Nelson, who unfortunately went to the Colts two picks before us. He then didn't take McGlinchey despite having McGlinchey's college coach coaching our OL. So I'm okay with that. He took a QB rather than any offensive lineman, the first not being taken until pick 20. He didn't take Ereck Flowers in his first draft. Flowers hasn't exactly set the world on fire, playing on four separate teams in five years. The one that kind of bugs me is Tunsil. I would have taken him rather than Floyd (or my guy Shaq Lawson ;)). But there were the character issues with Tunsil with the pot mask and everything, so I can understand that.

In six drafts, he's taken an offensive lineman with his second pick twice and his third pick once. Plus he's pick four other offensive linemen on the third day. So I do think he's devoted draft resources to the position.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Fri May 22, 2020 9:57 pm

20 Years is not a thing in Football

Feels like that can't be mentioned enough

Additionally valuing OL and being good at it are Different things - Gabe Carimi couldn't play - That doesn't mean a freaking 1st Round pick means you don't value the position
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:01 pm
I think it's more complicated than that, and a lot of it comes from predictability. I've posted before that historically our offense has fluctuated madly between ultra conservative and wide open. I think this is true.

In response to my comment on Fox, DP mentioned that this has been going on since 1999. But also don't forget the three years of Shoop where it was up the middle, up the middle, up the middle.... And don't forget Ron Turner, although not as ultra conservative as either Fox or Shoop, he was still pretty conservative.

The problem isn't so much that we neglect the run but that we have wild pendulum swings in our offensive philosophy. Interspaced with these conservative offenses, we've had wide open affairs, like Crowton, Martz, and Trestman where the running game was all but forgotten. The problem isn't that we neglect the run game so much as that we either completely rely on it or completely forget. In both circumstances we become too predictable.

This is why I want Nagy to learn how to run the ball, and keep with it, if it's working.
There is nothing wrong with our pass/run ratio. The ineffectiveness of each endeavor is the issue. Our ratio was almost identical to KC and NO. We passed 12th most. That's not a lot and is damn near league average. Especially for a team who lost 8 games (teams who lose are forced more into pass-heavy game scripts) that's not a lot of passing.

I also roundly reject the notion that one regime on offense impacts the next. It's entirely irrelevant who our former OC's were. It doesn't matter what Martz, Trestman or Tice did.
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Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sat May 23, 2020 2:16 pm

Not from what I've seen Richie. The pendulum swings back and forth. We make it pass happy with Crowton, we swing to ultraconservative Shoop, get a little more creative with Turner, then make it pass happy with Martz, swing to idiotic conservative with Tice, get pass happy again with Trestman, get Fox. We seem to swing back and forth in philosophy between regimes like a ping pong ball. That's why I want to see Nagy learn how to run the fucking ball, and when it's working, stick the fuck with it, but still keep the rest of his creativity. Nothing bugs me more than seeing either Howard (two years ago) or Montgomery (last year) hit for couple of runs in a row, and then leave the fucking game! What the hell is up with that? At least use him as a decoy. He does that crap again and again.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sat May 23, 2020 9:55 pm

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:16 pm
Not from what I've seen Richie. The pendulum swings back and forth. We make it pass happy with Crowton, we swing to ultraconservative Shoop, get a little more creative with Turner, then make it pass happy with Martz, swing to idiotic conservative with Tice, get pass happy again with Trestman, get Fox. We seem to swing back and forth in philosophy between regimes like a ping pong ball. That's why I want to see Nagy learn how to run the fucking ball, and when it's working, stick the fuck with it, but still keep the rest of his creativity. Nothing bugs me more than seeing either Howard (two years ago) or Montgomery (last year) hit for couple of runs in a row, and then leave the fucking game! What the hell is up with that? At least use him as a decoy. He does that crap again and again.
The NFL has simply changed since 2004
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 1:11 am

Tell that to John Fox and Mike Tice. lol

I really, really don't want to see us rebound into another ultra conservative coach. I want to see Nagy fix his fault but maintain his creativity and leadership. I really like him, but he has to learn too.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 7:25 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:16 pm
Not from what I've seen Richie. The pendulum swings back and forth. We make it pass happy with Crowton, we swing to ultraconservative Shoop, get a little more creative with Turner, then make it pass happy with Martz, swing to idiotic conservative with Tice, get pass happy again with Trestman, get Fox. We seem to swing back and forth in philosophy between regimes like a ping pong ball. That's why I want to see Nagy learn how to run the fucking ball, and when it's working, stick the fuck with it, but still keep the rest of his creativity. Nothing bugs me more than seeing either Howard (two years ago) or Montgomery (last year) hit for couple of runs in a row, and then leave the fucking game! What the hell is up with that? At least use him as a decoy. He does that crap again and again.
Not from what I've seen Richie. The pendulum swings back and forth. We make it pass happy with Crowton, we swing to ultraconservative Shoop, get a little more creative with Turner, then make it pass happy with Martz, swing to idiotic conservative with Tice, get pass happy again with Trestman, get Fox. We seem to swing back and forth in philosophy between regimes like a ping pong ball.
I have so many separate issues with your posts in this thread.

#1 - Can you quantify this? Do you have numbers that say all of the eras were as you say they were in terms of philosophy? Not to mention, you would also have to make the case that each regime had the proper personnel to run or pass more than they did.

I mostly ask, well... because THIS VERY era is not as you claim. Leading me to my 2nd point of contention.

#2 - Nagy has not been pass happy. In 2018, we ran the ball the 6th MOST and passed the 6th LEAST in the NFL.

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/18_run_pass_ratios.html

In 2019, (again you're going to pass more when you lose 8 games) we only had the 12th highest pass vs run ratio.

In Nagy's two seasons, our average finish has been 19.5 in the NFL with our pass to run ratio. We are actually more on the run heavy side of the league.

#3 - You have yet to state what John Schoop, Turner, Martz, Tice, etc. have to do with this regime. I cannot find a single way in which it impacts Matt Nagy's offense. It's a waste of space. If you have a problem with Nagy's play calling. State it... but for the love of god, John Schoop doesn't matter in 2020. lol

Regimes come and go. Personnel comes and goes. Philosophies change. You don't really have a relevant point by stating this.
That's why I want to see Nagy learn how to run the fucking ball, and when it's working, stick the fuck with it, but still keep the rest of his creativity. Nothing bugs me more than seeing either Howard (two years ago) or Montgomery (last year) hit for couple of runs in a row, and then leave the fucking game! What the hell is up with that? At least use him as a decoy. He does that crap again and again.
We're watching very different games. I don't see that happening. When Howard wasn't working at the beginning of 2018, he wasn't used as much. When he was? We were a run heavy offense at the end of the season. In 2019, the run game hardly worked. However, the few times it did. Versus LAC, etc. He ran it.

My opinion is also backed by the numbers. Nagy has not led a pass happy offense over his two seasons as head coach. Quite the contrary, in fact.


EDIT

I had to look back as I just swore we didn't throw that much under Martz. Our OC in 2010 and 2011.

Low and behold. We threw the 32nd (THE LEAST) amount of passes in the NFL in 2010.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt

In 2011, we threw the 27th (6th to last) amount of passes in the NFL.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt



So, I really think this theory needs to be disposed of my man.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 9:13 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:11 am
Tell that to John Fox and Mike Tice. lol

I really, really don't want to see us rebound into another ultra conservative coach. I want to see Nagy fix his fault but maintain his creativity and leadership. I really like him, but he has to learn too.
In a related story - I can tell that to John Fox and Mike Tice in many different forums and locales.

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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 10:16 am

Richie wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:25 am
EDIT

I had to look back as I just swore we didn't throw that much under Martz. Our OC in 2010 and 2011.

Low and behold. We threw the 32nd (THE LEAST) amount of passes in the NFL in 2010.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt

In 2011, we threw the 27th (6th to last) amount of passes in the NFL.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt


So, I really think this theory needs to be disposed of my man.
They were also in the bottom half of rushing plays, too. They just didn't have many plays, period, because they sucked that much on offense.

You should measure in ratios, not raw numbers.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 10:26 am

Moriarty wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 10:16 am
Richie wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:25 am
EDIT

I had to look back as I just swore we didn't throw that much under Martz. Our OC in 2010 and 2011.

Low and behold. We threw the 32nd (THE LEAST) amount of passes in the NFL in 2010.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt

In 2011, we threw the 27th (6th to last) amount of passes in the NFL.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt


So, I really think this theory needs to be disposed of my man.
They were also in the bottom half of rushing plays, too. They just didn't have many plays, period, because they sucked that much on offense.

You should measure in ratios, not raw numbers.
I couldn't find ratios from back then. As you can see, I measured 18 and 19 by ratios.

Regardless, it doesn't matter. In 2011, they were 9th most in terms of rushes. So, you're only half correct. You can eyeball the numbers and see they were run heavy relative to the rest of the league.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 10:29 am

Moriarty wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 10:16 am
Richie wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:25 am
EDIT

I had to look back as I just swore we didn't throw that much under Martz. Our OC in 2010 and 2011.

Low and behold. We threw the 32nd (THE LEAST) amount of passes in the NFL in 2010.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt

In 2011, we threw the 27th (6th to last) amount of passes in the NFL.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt


So, I really think this theory needs to be disposed of my man.
They were also in the bottom half of rushing plays, too. They just didn't have many plays, period, because they sucked that much on offense.

You should measure in ratios, not raw numbers.
Found it by searching passing play percentage instead of "ratio".

22nd in passing percentage in 2010. 55-45 ratio

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamst ... rt=passatt

26th in 2011. 53-47 ratio

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/p ... 2012-02-05

This makes Mike Martz one of the most run heavy play callers in the NFL during his stint with the Chicago Bears.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Sun May 24, 2020 4:04 pm

Yeah, Martz's problem really wasn't running the ball (although Forte's carries under Martz were the lowest of his career until the very end) so much as it was his insistence on the five step drop and NOT using the TE. That's why Cutler had 52 sacks in 2010 and Hanie, McCown, and Cutler had 49 in 2011! And Olsen was stupidly traded.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Mon May 25, 2020 8:24 am

Which begs the question whether the ratios mentioned factor in pass plays that end in sacks or scrambles or are they just based on pass attempts and runs? In other words did the team attempt to pass more than the stats show but the plays were unsuccessful and in the case of scrambles actually got categorised as running plays?

Ultimately the concern with Nagy isn't the overall run/pass ratio, it's his tendency to virtually stop running the ball at times even when games are close thus making his offense one-dimensional and predictable.

The concern with the running game in general is the paltry ypc that puts the offense behind the chains and regularly leaves it in low conversion third and long situations.

The impact of this on the QB's success cannot be ignored. None of the 7 regular veteran starters at QB whose teams averaged 4 yards a carry or less last season had a passer rating higher than 92.1. The average was 85.8. Trubisky's was 83.0.

Some will point to Trubisky's play being a cause for the lacklustre running game, but that group included the likes of Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. What really stands out is the correlation between the drop in ypc from the year before and the drop in all those QBs' passer ratings.

It is imperative that Nagy and his new coaches get the run game figured out and that starts up front. The offensive line was dreadful at run blocking . That has to change and they're going to have to do it with at least four of the same players they had starting last season. That's quite a challenge.
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Mon May 25, 2020 11:25 am

Yogi da Bear wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:04 pm
Yeah, Martz's problem really wasn't running the ball (although Forte's carries under Martz were the lowest of his career until the very end) so much as it was his insistence on the five step drop and NOT using the TE. That's why Cutler had 52 sacks in 2010 and Hanie, McCown, and Cutler had 49 in 2011! And Olsen was stupidly traded.
He only tried to go with his big drops at the beginning of each season, though. He did adjust. All in all, he was the best OC we've had, IMO. The 2nd half of 2010 and 2011 pre Cutler injury was the most consistent our offense ever was.

And I don't really understand your posts then. You just sort of moved the goal posts. "Okay, he did run... but it was the 7 step drops!". The line was also brutal in pass pro. Cutler also held the ball a lot.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Mon May 25, 2020 11:42 am

HisRoyalSweetness wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:24 am
Which begs the question whether the ratios mentioned factor in pass plays that end in sacks or scrambles or are they just based on pass attempts and runs? In other words did the team attempt to pass more than the stats show but the plays were unsuccessful and in the case of scrambles actually got categorised as running plays?

Ultimately the concern with Nagy isn't the overall run/pass ratio, it's his tendency to virtually stop running the ball at times even when games are close thus making his offense one-dimensional and predictable.

The concern with the running game in general is the paltry ypc that puts the offense behind the chains and regularly leaves it in low conversion third and long situations.

The impact of this on the QB's success cannot be ignored. None of the 7 regular veteran starters at QB whose teams averaged 4 yards a carry or less last season had a passer rating higher than 92.1. The average was 85.8. Trubisky's was 83.0.

Some will point to Trubisky's play being a cause for the lacklustre running game, but that group included the likes of Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. What really stands out is the correlation between the drop in ypc from the year before and the drop in all those QBs' passer ratings.

It is imperative that Nagy and his new coaches get the run game figured out and that starts up front. The offensive line was dreadful at run blocking . That has to change and they're going to have to do it with at least four of the same players they had starting last season. That's quite a challenge.
Which begs the question whether the ratios mentioned factor in pass plays that end in sacks or scrambles or are they just based on pass attempts and runs? In other words did the team attempt to pass more than the stats show but the plays were unsuccessful and in the case of scrambles actually got categorised as running plays?
It's hard to dress up 6th highest run ratio as being "Oh, well... it was just all of the scrambles". Mitch also rarely scrambled last year.
Ultimately the concern with Nagy isn't the overall run/pass ratio, it's his tendency to virtually stop running the ball at times even when games are close thus making his offense one-dimensional and predictable.
As we have seen unfold in this thread. Conjecture often falls on its face. Facts/data go a long way. Can you back this claim up?
The impact of this on the QB's success cannot be ignored. None of the 7 regular veteran starters at QB whose teams averaged 4 yards a carry or less last season had a passer rating higher than 92.1. The average was 85.8. Trubisky's was 83.0.

Some will point to Trubisky's play being a cause for the lacklustre running game, but that group included the likes of Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. What really stands out is the correlation between the drop in ypc from the year before and the drop in all those QBs' passer ratings.
I know you sort of touched on this... but it's a classic conflating of correlation/causation. A huge reason nothing opens up in the run game is because defense's have ZERO respect for our passing attack. That list is also a whole lot of name power, but not much else. Rivers and Brady are on their last legs and played poorly. Their passing games were bad too. Goff has been largely exposed going back to mid-late 2018.

I could also arbitrarily cut this off at "teams who average less than 100 YPG on the ground" and boom... KC/Mahomes appears.

One of those 7 teams was also TB. Who passed at a fantastic clip and possessed the #1 overall passing offense. Winston's issues with his rating stems from his turnovers. However, there was zero issue moving the ball.
It is imperative that Nagy and his new coaches get the run game figured out and that starts up front. The offensive line was dreadful at run blocking . That has to change and they're going to have to do it with at least four of the same players they had starting last season. That's quite a challenge.
I agree that the run game needs to improve. I think a lot of it has to do with Nagy adjusting his scheme.

I just don't agree that we need to have more of a commitment to it.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Revisiting the "Bears don't value OL" discussion

Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm

Richie wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 11:42 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:24 am
Which begs the question whether the ratios mentioned factor in pass plays that end in sacks or scrambles or are they just based on pass attempts and runs? In other words did the team attempt to pass more than the stats show but the plays were unsuccessful and in the case of scrambles actually got categorised as running plays?
It's hard to dress up 6th highest run ratio as being "Oh, well... it was just all of the scrambles". Mitch also rarely scrambled last year.
Which of course is not what I suggested. I was just posing the question about how the stats re. pass/rush are calculated and whether they factor in details such as sacks and scrambles or not. I don’t know the answer. Do you?
Ultimately the concern with Nagy isn't the overall run/pass ratio, it's his tendency to virtually stop running the ball at times even when games are close thus making his offense one-dimensional and predictable.
As we have seen unfold in this thread. Conjecture often falls on its face. Facts/data go a long way. Can you back this claim up?
Here are a few whole game examples:

Wildcard Game 2019 vs the Eagles
Jordan Howard had finished the season strongly. In the last 5 games he averaged 17.5 carries and 80 rushing yards a game at 4.5 ypc and he scored 4 TDs. He finished the regular season with his best game of the year, a 109 yard, 5.3 ypc, 2 TD effort against the Vikings. The following week in a close, low scoring game against the Eagles he got just 10 carries despite half of them gaining 5 yards or more.

Week 1 2019 vs the Packers
The Bears only ran the ball 15 times (including a Trubisky scramble) and 11 of those carries came in the first quarter. Every one gained yardage with 7 of them gaining at least 4 yards. Yet in a game that finished 10 - 3 they only ran 4 more times the rest of the game.

Week 7 2019 vs the Saints
The Bears only ran the ball 7 times in the whole game, which was Trubisky's first back from injury and following their bye-week. The score was 12 - 10 at half time.
The impact of this on the QB's success cannot be ignored. None of the 7 regular veteran starters at QB whose teams averaged 4 yards a carry or less last season had a passer rating higher than 92.1. The average was 85.8. Trubisky's was 83.0.

Some will point to Trubisky's play being a cause for the lacklustre running game, but that group included the likes of Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. What really stands out is the correlation between the drop in ypc from the year before and the drop in all those QBs' passer ratings.
I know you sort of touched on this... but it's a classic conflating of correlation/causation. A huge reason nothing opens up in the run game is because defense's have ZERO respect for our passing attack. That list is also a whole lot of name power, but not much else. Rivers and Brady are on their last legs and played poorly. Their passing games were bad too. Goff has been largely exposed going back to mid-late 2018.

I could also arbitrarily cut this off at "teams who average less than 100 YPG on the ground" and boom... KC/Mahomes appears.

One of those 7 teams was also TB. Who passed at a fantastic clip and possessed the #1 overall passing offense. Winston's issues with his rating stems from his turnovers. However, there was zero issue moving the ball.
Brady and Goff led their teams to the Super Bowl earlier in the year, Brady's third in a row, and Ryan was only a couple of years removed from doing the same whilst winning league MVP. Rivers had taken the Chargers to the playoffs in 2018 too. All but Brady had passer ratings of over 100 in 2018 and his wasn’t far short at 97.7. Targets of the calibre of Julio Jones, Keenan Allen and Austin Hooper can't be ignored either.

Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.5/3.8
Quarterback Passer Rating: 108.1/92.1
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 15%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 17%

Los Angeles Chargers - Philip Rivers
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.7/4.0
Quarterback Passer Rating: 105.5/88.5
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 15%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 16%

Los Angeles Rams - Jared Goff
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.9/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 101.1/86.5
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 24%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 14%

New England Patriots - Tom Brady
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.3/3.8
Quarterback Passer Rating: 97.7/88.0
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 12%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 10%

Chicago Bears - Mitch Trubisky
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.1/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 95.4/83.0
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 10%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 13%

Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Jameis Winston
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 3.9/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 90.2/84.3
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 7%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 5%

Cincinatti Bengals - Andy Dalton
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.7/3.9
Quarterback Passer Rating: 89.6/78.3
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 17%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 13%

I find hard it hard to conclude that all these QBs’ passer ratings and their teams’ rushing averages fell so substantially from one year to the next simply because their personal play did, especially those who were amongst the best in the league just a season before. Winston was the QB whose rating was least impacted by the fall in ypc which was relatively small.

Teams that run effectively, as indicated by a good ypc, open up their offense to be successful by staying ahead of the chains, whether that is by continuing to run like the Ravens and Titans last year or via passing like the Chiefs. Whether you apportion the blame to the QBs for a poor ypc or not, this notion doesn’t alter.
It is imperative that Nagy and his new coaches get the run game figured out and that starts up front. The offensive line was dreadful at run blocking. That has to change and they're going to have to do it with at least four of the same players they had starting last season. That's quite a challenge.
I agree that the run game needs to improve. I think a lot of it has to do with Nagy adjusting his scheme.

I just don't agree that we need to have more of a commitment to it.
I agree with you to a large degree. The running game just has to be effective and Nagy has to keep mixing in runs to keep the defense honest. It doesn’t need to dominate his play calling.

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