Reading this made my blood boil

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dplank
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Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:59 am

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/ ... -safeties/

Can someone who is a Chuck Pagano fan explain to me how you still back a guy that takes the games best free safety and moves him to strong safety? And let's career disappointment HHCD take the free safety spot over him? It's just DUMB, and ARROGANT.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Moriarty
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:42 am

That's such an inexplicable move.

Maybe Haha is better at FS than SS, but so is Eddie, and there's no way Haha's dropoff from FS to SS is anywhere near as big.
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Wounded Bear
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:02 pm

I’m not a Pagano fan. Last year was a big disappointment for me as far as the defense was concerned. Moving Eddie Jackson to SS is like moving K Mack to inside linebacker.

Wade Phillips is a much better defensive coordinator who is still available.
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:56 pm

OMG preaching to the choir bud! Wade Phillips with this roster would be awesome!
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:14 pm

Wade Phillips consistently gives the Patriots troubles. Pagano plays checkers, Wade Phillips chess.
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:31 pm

Seems like not so very long ago we were complaining that all we had on the roster were strong safeties.
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Kylo Bearen
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:37 pm

Wounded Bear wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:14 pm
Wade Phillips consistently gives the Patriots troubles. Pagano plays checkers, Wade Phillips chess.
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Richie
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:12 pm

HHCD is not a star but he is far from a bust. He's a solid player.

I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either. The secondary was far from an issue. The dominance dipped off because the inevitable turnover regression took place, Hicks got hurt, and our pass rush suffered because of it. Not because Eddie Jackson played SS instead of FS.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:15 pm

Richie wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:12 pm
HHCD is not a star but he is far from a bust. He's a solid player.

I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either. The secondary was far from an issue. The dominance dipped off because the inevitable turnover regression took place, Hicks got hurt, and our pass rush suffered because of it. Not because Eddie Jackson played SS instead of FS.
The Turnover numbers were absolutely bound to fall.

But let me make this point: Moving perhaps the best Ballhawking FS in the game away from what he does best can only serve to exacerbate that
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:10 am

Richie wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:12 pm

I didn't care for the move but it didn't hurt us either.
Really? Taking a playmaker like Eddie Jackson out of the position of making plays didn't hurt us?

So making interceptions or breaking up passes aren't valuable in determining the outcome of a game and having less of them doesn't hurt the team's performance?

That's news to me.
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:34 am

Yea, it did hurt us Richie. And while you are right that turnovers were bound to drop after the historic 2018 season that Vic oversaw, that doesn't mean they should have dropped off a cliff like they and our sack numbers did. That point always gets missed in this conversation, when it's absolutely the centerpiece of it. Dismissing it all with a "2018 wasn't sustainable" waive off completely misses the point. SOME regression would have been ok and expected, falling off a cliff however is a different story.

There were a handful of things that happened:

1) We had a coaching/scheme change
2) Hicks got hurt and missed 3/4 of the season
3) We moved two key players out of their best position (Roquan and EJax) (see #1 above) both of whom had down years

What's really interesting is if you look at the advanced stats, you see we had a lot of "hurries" on the QB (we ranked 4th), but were middling (14th) in knockdowns and near bottom in sacks (24th). I really focus on sacks more than turnovers because they tend to drive turnovers and kill drives. And while turnovers have an element of luck to them, sacks don't, so I think sacks are a much better measure to look at from a year to year comparison. In 2018, we were 3rd in sacks with 50. In 2019, we dropped to 24th in sacks with just 32. You can't say that the sack numbers weren't sustainable like you can with the turnover numbers. I view the drop in turnovers as derivative from the drop in sacks. We dropped from 3rd to 24th in sacks, and we dropped from 1st to 22nd in turnovers, damn near perfect match.

Richie I'm curious how you explain the drop off in sacks w/o leaning on Hicks as your only answer?
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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southdakbearfan
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 pm

I blame Floyd not being able to do jack and improve at all. Everything was on Mack after hicks went down because of Floyd’s lack of ability in the pass rush.

Moving Jackson wasn’t smart but the d line not getting home near as often really hurt.
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G08
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm

4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA

Come on man...
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:11 pm

G08 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA
24th in sacks
22nd in turnovers

Come on man...
I added two key stats for you in the quote, this all sounds decent (but not great). We appear to be teetering on the edge of being a Top 10 defense, not terrible, but not 2018. After 2018, and with this personnel, we should be expecting great defense, not "decent".

Compare it to 2018 with the same personnel and it pops right out at you...

1st in the league in points allowed
5th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
1st in net yards allowed per attempt
1st in DVOA
3rd in sacks
1st in turnovers

Four 1sts, a 3rd and a 5th. Dominant. Nothing in the lower third of the league in 2018 unlike like last year, where the two high impact areas were simply awful. And dropping from 1st to 11th in net yards allowed per attempts is UGLY, not something I'd be posting if I were trying to defend Pagano - that's a BIG drop.

Sorry, I know you don't want to hear it, but that is a precipitous drop in performance. Across the board, and in some cases (impact plays in particular), we dropped off a cliff from best in the league to bottom feeders. Blaming Floyd makes no sense, he sucked on the 2018 team too and yet we dominated. We lost Mack for a month as well, still dominated.

You guys all seem so want to white wash over the scale/proportion issue here. I get that we were a pretty decent defense last year. Pagano was handed the keys to a Ferrari there was no way we were going to be awful. But the delta between 2018 and 2019 is massive, PPG be damned. Here's one way to see the scale issue, PFF has something called Expected Points contributed by all Defense (EXP). It's a really interesting stat because you don't just see teams in linear order with small delta's in their numbers, you see MASSIVE gaps. Last year the Patriots had a GREAT defense, and their EXP was 165, the next ranked ones were 85, then 77, then 39, 16, and 12. Then every other team in the league, including our Bears, had a NEGATIVE number. This shows how wide the gap was between the Pats last year and everyone else. Guess what? In 2018 that was us! We were first, and the next closest team to us was less than half our number - a HUGE gap.

Sometimes just looking at rankings doesn't tell the whole story. We went from dominant to pretty toothless in one season, and Pagano was the main change.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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G08
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm

Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am

G08 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm
Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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G08
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:12 am

dplank wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am
G08 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:54 pm
Health in 2018 vs 2019. We also had a magical year when it came to takeaways in 2018. Statistical anomaly.
Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
Plank this is making my ears bleed.

How are you shitting on a defense that was top 4 in points allowed?

I'll gladly trade away sacks to give up less points if this is the road we are taking.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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crueltyabc
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:53 pm

1. I don't think it was crazy to think that Eddie would still have 3-4 INTs at SS and with HHCD getting 3-4 that's great safety production. HHCD was a disappointment and got shipped out so whoever decided on this plan - maybe Pagano or maybe Pace - realized it was the wrong idea. Good.

I'm not gonna get too excited about this mistake because the Bears defense was still good and

2. The team was bad because the offense was bad. I seriously doubt there was much more the defense could do to carry this team. Maybe 1 win more? Does that really matter?

Until they figure out QB there is a ceiling for this team
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:14 pm

As the "famous" philosopher, DC, Greg Blache stated, "Sacks don't matter." To finish his quote,

""There's more to playing defense than getting sacks," he said. "We've developed the concept here even further. We talk about disruptions, where you try to get batted balls, altered passes. You try to get hands in the quarterback's throwing lanes to make him adjust the ball. Breakups and disruptions are just as important; it's a big statistic for us. A sack is just one portion of it.
"Sacks are a cosmetic statistic. Guys go to the Pro Bowl with 10-12 sacks, and they're not necessarily complete players."

There you have it.
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:46 pm

G08 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:12 am
dplank wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am


Thoroughly debunked bud and only accounts for a part of the drop, but I'm not going to keep on with it. Think what you want man.

Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
Plank this is making my ears bleed.

How are you shitting on a defense that was top 4 in points allowed?

I'll gladly trade away sacks to give up less points if this is the road we are taking.
Just looking at points is really poor dude, so much goes into that number and too much of it is independent of defensive performance. You must know better. All sorts of things go into that, it's over simplified.

DVOA is far better. While imperfect it at least tries to tie in a number of important elements into one perspective. We dropped from 1st to 8th, which seems about right from a gut check perspective. We went from "elite" in 2018 under Fangio to "pretty good" in 2019 under Pagano. I don't think anyone is arguing this, some of you are just content with the fall - I'm not. We put all our chips/salary cap into our defense, "pretty good" is not good enough for this team, we have to be elite on that side of the ball. And what kept us from being elite was the lack of sacks, which drive turnovers. Those went away under Pagano, and it's simply not ok. We can't win unless this defense returns to the elite status we enjoyed while Fangio was here. Nothing in Pagano's past results make me believe he's capable of it, he had one good year running someone else's defense in Baltimore almost a decade ago, then he floundered horribly when he struck out on his own. The results are what they are. And sure enough, he started taking our elite defense in the wrong direction the moment he got here. It's not a complicated take.

Otis I'll take that Greg Blache quote as one point in my favor lol....that guy sucked and was universally roasted for those comments.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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G08
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:26 pm

Then go with DVOA, top 8.

Hicks was hurt.

Trevathan was hurt.

Mack apparently was battling neck and back injuries.

Amukamara was hurt.


Etc etc etc. I mean shit dude, if your expectation is #1 defense overall year after year after year, I don't think you're going to be happy often. 2018 was a magical season, but just like 17 years earlier, it ended with a thud against the fucking Eagles.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:06 am

This team isn’t built to win with only a pretty good defense G08, 8th out of 32 isn’t all that great. We were behind the Jets man. We are built to have a great defense but didn’t play great. We don’t have to be #1 every year, that’s a straw man argument, but dropping 8 spots in one year after a coaching change is cause for alarm IMO. We should have stayed in the top 10th percentile IMO. We had injuries in 2018 as well, that’s too easy an excuse for me.

On paper the 2020 defense is better than 2018. Anything less than Top 3 or 4 in DVOA (that’s top 10th percentile) is a failure. Agree?

8th out of 100 would be great! Would be safely within the top 10th percentile. It seems like that's the perspective you are hanging on to. But there's only 32 teams. 8th out of 32 is BARELY 25th percentile - meh. Pretty good, not great by any means. Nothing to parade around like Pagano did anything but a mediocre job considering the talent he had and the performance that immediately preceded him. We should stop acting like we didn't have any injuries in 2018 either, we lost Mack for a month and Callahan for a huge chunk also, and EJax went out late in the season. The injuries in 2019 were more, absolutely, and Hicks hurt. But Kwit filled in great for Danny, and other than that there weren't many injuries on that side of the ball. So i just don't buy it.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:18 pm

If we average more then 27.82 yards per drive, on offense, I believe our defense will be in the top 5 of all rankings.

Hate Pagano or love him. As long as we have the talent we have, I could keep this defense in the top ten.

Our offense needs to better sustain drives on better consistency to help this defense out.

Pat O'Donnell does not have the greatest leg but is accurate as all hell. We can't keep asking him to drive a punt 75 yards.

If this offense can sustain drives we should be just fine. We really don't need a top 10 offense. Damn it would be nice though.
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crueltyabc
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:38 pm

dplank wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:06 am
On paper the 2020 defense is better than 2018. Anything less than Top 3 or 4 in DVOA (that’s top 10th percentile) is a failure. Agree?
I’d like to raise my hand and say no. We have a sketchy CB battle and no real SS. Quinn as OLB drama. Depth is questionable all over, especially ILB where we have an older player and a guy who can’t help himself but party with porn stars during a pandemic. It’s not hard to imagine some tough games mixed in with the ones where these guys play at their potential. More talent at the top but less reliable
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:29 am

G08 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
4th in the league in points allowed
6th in rushing yards allowed per attempt
11th in net yards allowed per attempt
8th in DVOA

Come on man...
He isn't saying we were bad - but that there was a clear falloff with Pagano - not really explained by anything other than that.

And is anyone going to address the Pagano Indy years at all? (for those defending him)

I don't think he's Mel Tucker here - but I have my questions about him
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dplank
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:52 am

I can answer that lol....they'll claim that Indy didn't value defense during his tenure there, even though they hired a defensive coordinator to be head coach lmao. If you look at their actual draft history while Pagano was there, their drafts weren't overtly focused on offense or defense. So it's simply not true, but it's the simple "surfacy" knee jerk answer you're sure to receive.

The picks they took on defense didn't work out, but I wonder how much of that is the player and how much is the team/coaching? As a comparative example used only to illustrate what I mean by that: is Tom Brady the same Tom Brady if he were drafted here in Chicago? Likely not. It's hard to say with regards to Indy's defensive draft picks, but after one year with Chuck we saw what happened to EJax, Mack, and Roquan...studs under Vic, pedestrian under Pagano. Nichols and Goldman went backwards as well. So that's not a positive trend.

Again, in Pagano's last two years in Indy, after having 4 prior years to get "his people" and "his system" in place, his defenses ranked 30th and 30th. Then he was fired. He got labeled a "defensive genius" because he had one great defense in Baltimore, where for 1 season he ran someone else's defense and managed not to fuck it up. That's it. He took over Vic's GREAT 2018 defense, almost 100% the same roster, and started his eventual downward march towards mediocrity. Sure, he didn't tank us overnight, we have too much talent to fall that far; but his trendline combined with his history looks bad from where I sit. I'm not sure even the immortal Mel Tucker could have run this defense into the lower third of the league...well....maybe.

I remain hopeful that our talent is so good that it won't matter a whole lot. We'll see...
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:18 am

Yeah - I mean - I could cut slack for a Lack of Talent (Don't get me wrong)

But that slack isn't 30th best overall either

And just like certain coaching things - Talent being equal - the Coach that is better at two things: 1) Adjustments and 2) Simply getting his guys to play Hard and Fast - That Coach will get more out of that Talent

Motivation - especially on the Defensive Side (ESPECIALLY) matters - and some of that doesn't even have to be the Coach - Leaders on D (Ray Lewis types) matter more than their firey counterpart on O (IMHO)



Though I will push back on Tucker - He would have had us in the lower 50% for sure. Guys didn't even jump on loose fumbles under him
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Yogi da Bear
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Re: Reading this made my blood boil

Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:39 pm

First, as to Ha Ha, perhaps Pagano made the move not because of what Eddie does best, but because of what Ha Ha can't do--tackle. Not a good trait for an in the box safety. Of course, although much better than Ha Ha, Eddie isn't exactly a top flight tackler either. Probably would have been better to just let Eddie play his position and let Ha Ha and Deon fight it out for the SS spot. But in this regard, the whole situation is as much on Pace as Pagano. Ha Ha was simply not a good fit for the rest of our defense.

dplank wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:18 am
Can anyone answer the question I posed? How do you account for the falling off a cliff in sacks w/o Hicks being the only answer? You don't drop from 1st to one of the worst in the league in one season due to one guy getting hurt. Which of Pagano's 6 straight shitty years of defense in Indy gives you guys so much confidence that he's not part of the problem?
You do have me getting itchy with Pagano DP. The whole thing with Quinn is really starting to concern. Standing him up and putting him in a blitzing situation I think is a mistake. You're far better off letting him do what he does best--getting to the QB as a down RDE.

I've said this in another thread, but it bears repeating here. Hicks is a pretty big damn reason our sacks and turnovers declined last year:
In all fairness, the loss of Hicks can't be UNDERESTIMATED enough. Through five games last year (with Hicks only playing 8 snaps against Oakland), the Bears had 10 turnovers and 17 sacks (none in the Hicks deprived Raider game). Four and a half of Mack's 8.5 sacks came in those first four Hicks Games. That is close to being on par with 2019's 36 (32 estimated for 2019) turnovers and is actually above board on 2019's 51 sacks (54.4 estimated in 2019 even considering the Hicks shortened Raider game).

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