Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

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dplank
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Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:14 pm

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2020 ... ining-camp

It seems like such a no brainer I thought I'd ask the counter intuitive question and see if anyone thinks we should pass on paying ARob big money. Cap space is tight, but he's one hell of a player. MAYBE if we see massive growth from some of our young guys we could try and save that $$, seems like a big risk though.
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Moriarty
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:49 pm

Season uncertainty is going to hold back stuff like this.

Once it's clear that the season will/won't be completed and how compensation/contracts/cap will work, things will start happening.
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Bad Flanders
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:20 am

I don't know what they are thinking. Give the guy his money. He's earned it. There's only two options: give him his money and make him happy or hold his money for a few months and piss him off and then give him the same money and hope he doesn't hold a grudge... what sense does that make?

It's not like they are being cheap with everyone, they spend money, and it's not like they have a ton tied up in WR... he's the one... so WTF?!?! Pay the man.
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Yogi da Bear
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:43 am

I will. I was a big Robinson fan until I saw a twitter feed about his blocking. Now, I can understand a WR whiffing a block or not blocking very well, but to not even try? Nope. When that happens it's not good. And when it's your #1 receiver? It's even worse. What is that teaching your other WRs. Now, I don't know the backstory to these clips. Perhaps he was injured and told not to risk himself with a block as he was too important to the team otherwise. But for myself, I don't want to see us give him big money until he proves to me that he's actually willing to block.

Here's the link to that twitter feed, but warning, it might make you change your mind about Robinson. http://p/?f=2&t=14326&p=240https://www. ... ng#p240161

If that kind of shit is okay with you, then by all means sign him, but for me, before I give him big bucks, I need to see better effort from him, hell some kind of effort would be an improvement.
RichH55
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:36 pm

I was disappointed we didn't draft a WR in one of the best WR Drafts in recent memory
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dplank
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:08 pm

Darnell Mooney
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:58 am

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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:03 am

Like all contracts, if there's reasonable flexibility to not get murdered by a back-loaded deal and/or you know the client would be willing to manuever future payment into a bonus, getting him into a 4 year deal would be a benefit.
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:34 pm

dplank wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:08 pm
Darnell Mooney
Actually forgot about him - I more meant top 3 Rounds - but I stand corrected nonetheless
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Richie
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:18 am

I think he'll get paid. He deserves it. He's a beast.

If he had a better track history of QB's he would be a really big star. IMO
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:43 am

Does the 2021 Cap being in flux give anyone pause on contracts generally?
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:00 pm

I forget who was announcing the Chief’s game last year (maybe Collinworth), but he said if ARob was on KC, he would probably the #3 or #4 wide-receiver for them. I tend to agree.

Personally, I’m more inclined to think of him as an excellent possession wr, but not a true #1. He runs the 40 in the 4.6’s. So he’s an awesome #2 for us (if we ever get a true #1).

So break the Bank for him? In my opinion, no. If we had a gm who knew how to conduct a draft, we could have easily replaced ARob for a fraction of what he would want to be paid.

Moneyball dictates that you don’t break the bank on wideouts or running backs. They are too easily replaced.
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm

Wounded Bear wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:00 pm
I forget who was announcing the Chief’s game last year (maybe Collinworth), but he said if ARob was on KC, he would probably the #3 or #4 wide-receiver for them. I tend to agree.

Personally, I’m more inclined to think of him as an excellent possession wr, but not a true #1. He runs the 40 in the 4.6’s. So he’s an awesome #2 for us (if we ever get a true #1).

So break the Bank for him? In my opinion, no. If we had a gm who knew how to conduct a draft, we could have easily replaced ARob for a fraction of what he would want to be paid.

Moneyball dictates that you don’t break the bank on wideouts or running backs. They are too easily replaced.
Yeah, I remember laughing at Collinsworth over that comment. It was absurd. Robinson put up a better season than Hill has in 3 of his 4 seasons and did so with Mitch Trubisky throwing to him. In Jacksonville, he matched Hill's best season with Blake Bortles throwing to him.

Let's swap Hill and Robinson hypothetically with both of their situations last year. Robinson posted 99-1147-7 with Mitch. With Mahomes throwing him in that offense - those numbers become monstrous.

And your "moneyball" comment only applies to RB's. WR's have only grown in importance as the passing game continues to dominate the game more and more.

Robinson also isn't a "possession" WR. He's become that because our field shrinks so much with the two QB's we've started over his two seasons. Neither could throw the ball downfield. Robinson averaged 17.5 Y/R in that big year in Jacksonville. Better than Hill has ever done in his career. It was a lot of big plays. Not chain moving plays.

Robinson is one of the very best in all of football. He's a stud.

3rd or 4th best wide receiver on KC? Who could you even argue is better besides Hill (which I would agree with)? Sammy freaking Watkins? Who? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... tkSa00.htm
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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GSH
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:28 pm

I agree he should be extended, but the fact he hasnt even been approached by the bears about it makes me think they are doing something crazy like keeping him available for a possible trade move collateral.
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wab
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:25 am

Extensions for the most part are pretty stagnant across the league right now. I don't think it's a concern when taking into account the context of everything that's going on.
Arkansasbear
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:33 pm

I think the Bears want him long term and he wants to be here long term. The issue is years, total years and guaranteed money. (Shocker and yes water is still wet). The whole COVID thing is a huge monkey wrench in all of it. The team has no idea about revenue coming in the next 2 years and what the cap will look like. There is talk of the cap taking a huge hit next year. What do you do if that happens AND Trubisky finally "gets it AND you have to give ARob his fair share.

managing the cap next year could be super difficult.
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:42 pm

GSH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:28 pm
I agree he should be extended, but the fact he hasnt even been approached by the bears about it makes me think they are doing something crazy like keeping him available for a possible trade move collateral.
Have you been reading PFF??? :frustrated:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... ball-focus
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:18 pm

Arkansasbear wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:42 pm
GSH wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:28 pm
I agree he should be extended, but the fact he hasnt even been approached by the bears about it makes me think they are doing something crazy like keeping him available for a possible trade move collateral.
Have you been reading PFF??? :frustrated:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears ... ball-focus
HA! i dont read PFF at all but yeah, coincidence. I can see why.
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Arkansasbear
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:14 pm

For the record, no one should read PFF.

This guy pretty much sums up my view of them. :flick:
RichH55
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:03 pm

I'd take Hill (on the field) over Arod pretty easily

I think Arod is an interesting case - Really a question of how you define #1 WR in this league (and where you have to pay him regardless )

If he's asking for A. Cooper money (20 a year) - that's a real question to me
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G08
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:03 pm

I love him, hope he retires as a Chicago Bear.
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First 41 starts:

Drew Brees: 61.2% | 8261 yards | 52 TDs | 37 INTs | 6.60 YPA | 82.2

Mitch Trubisky: 63.4% | 8554 yards | 48 TDs | 29 INTs | 6.7 YPA | 85.8
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Yogi da Bear
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:47 pm

RichH55 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:03 pm
I'd take Hill (on the field) over Arod pretty easily

I think Arod is an interesting case - Really a question of how you define #1 WR in this league (and where you have to pay him regardless )

If he's asking for A. Cooper money (20 a year) - that's a real question to me
I would agree with that. I think strictly from a fantasy stat perspective, they're probably about even (although Hill will be chosen before ARob in almost every league because of name recognition and who his QB is). But Hill's threat value on the field is almost as valuable as his actual contribution. He extends defenses vertically like nobody's business.
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:04 am

Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm

Yeah, I remember laughing at Collinsworth over that comment. It was absurd.
It's cute you think you know more about football than Collinsworth. A guy who not only played the position, but now as an announcer, analyzes teams and players on a weekly basis.

Don't get me wrong, he's annoying at times, but I guarantee you, he know a shit ton more about football than you do.

Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Robinson put up a better season than Hill has in 3 of his 4 seasons and did so with Mitch Trubisky throwing to him. In Jacksonville, he matched Hill's best season with Blake Bortles throwing to him.
Wow, to anyone reading, let this be a case study in how and why statistics do not tell the entire story. Only idiots look at the pure numbers and say things like, "Allen Robinson is a better wide-receiver because the number of yards next to his name is bigger than the number of yards next to Tyreek Hill's name..."

So, hmm, why would Allen Robinson have more yards than Tyreek Hill... Could it be that:

Allen Robinson:
*Allen Robinson is the WR1 on the Bears meaning that he is the first option for a young, skittish QB (like Mitch Trubisky) who rarely goes through his progressions.

*Allen Robinson had 24 receptions in his first 4 games compared to Anthony Miller's 4 receptions in his first 4 games.

*Allen Robinson had 17 receptions in his first 3 games compared to Taylor Gabriel's 9 receptions in his first 3 games (I go to three for Taylor since he missed both the 4th and 5th game)

*The Chicago Bears have no Tight End to speak of so Robinson, a big receiver, will get those balls as well.

*David Montgomery wasn't exactly killing it in the pass catching aspect of his game. Even more balls to Robinson.

Now let's look at Tyreek Hill.

Tyreek Hill:
*Tyreek Hill is has Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson as his number 2 and number 3. Both legit wide receivers who Patrick Maholmes will throw to.

*Sammy Watkins stretches the field which competes with Hill as a downfield threat.

*Demarcus Robinson is a solid possession receiver who runs a 4.59 40 (about the same speed as Allen Robinson/actually .01 second faster than Allen Robinson).

*Tight End, Travis Kelse, is one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL and nearly had a thousand yards in receptions.

*The Chiefs offense utilize the running backs frequently in the passing game. The Bears want to, but we don't nearly to the extent the Chiefs actually do.

Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Let's swap Hill and Robinson hypothetically with both of their situations last year. Robinson posted 99-1147-7 with Mitch. With Mahomes throwing him in that offense - those numbers become monstrous.
You put forth an argument with little thought and/or nuance.

There are only so many balls to be caught and when you are competing with 4 other legitimate threats, regardless of how good you are, your numbers won't be as good as a player who plays on a team where the QB rarely goes beyond the first option (especially early in the season).
Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
And your "moneyball" comment only applies to RB's. WR's have only grown in importance as the passing game continues to dominate the game more and more.
This statement clearly shows that you know nothing about "moneyball" or the simple concept of supply and demand.

First off, both receivers AND RUNNING BACKS are very important to an offense. But it's not about how important they are. It's about how easy it is to replace them.

There are only a few receivers in the league that cannot be replaced because they are such rare talent, such as Tyreek Hill. But most can be replaced because there is a ton of very good receivers coming into the NFL on an annual basis.

This year alone, I was reading several GM's stating that you could get a starting wide receiver well into the 4th round. The same is usually true with running backs.

So that is why moneyball dictates that you do not spend a shit load on running backs or wide receivers because they can be easily replaced with players with affordable rookie contracts. It's common sense.
Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Robinson also isn't a "possession" WR. He's become that because our field shrinks so much with the two QB's we've started over his two seasons.
Neither could throw the ball downfield.
No, he's a possession because he has above 4.6 speed. He shrinks the field because he has 4.6 speed.

What makes him an excellent possession receiver is that he uses his big body extremely well to fight for reception and is sure handed.

Maybe if he lost some weight, his speed would pick up and he could stretch the field, but at this point, he doesn't because he can't.
Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Robinson averaged 17.5 Y/R in that big year in Jacksonville. Better than Hill has ever done in his career. It was a lot of big plays. Not chain moving plays.
Way to cherry pick a five year old stat. Unfortunately, a stat ARob has not gotten close to before or after that year. (btw, Muhsin Muhammad had a season with 16.3 yds/rec. He also had a 1400 yard season.)

Tyreek Hill's average Yards/Reception stat is consistently higher than ARob's because he is far more dangerous and can actually stretch the field unlike Robinson.
Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Robinson is one of the very best in all of football. He's a stud.
Tell that to Jalen Ramsey who made the "stud" look like a little boy when we played the Rams last year. ARob had 4 catches for 15 yards (3.8 yds/rec).

A truly elite receiver may have difficulties with a talented CB like Jalen Ramsey, but he wouldn't be completely shut down like Robinson was. It was embarrassing.

Meanwhile the NFL just came out with their Top 100 players.

Tyreek Hill is ranked #22 in the NFL. #19 in 2019.

Allen Robinson is ranked #93 in the NFL.

I'm no mathematician, but that's 71 spots.
Richie wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
3rd or 4th best wide receiver on KC? Who could you even argue is better besides Hill (which I would agree with)? Sammy freaking Watkins? Who? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... tkSa00.htm
Jesus Christ, you just went on and on about how ARob was better than Tyreek Hill and now you're saying you agree that Hill is better than ARob?! If you can't swallow your own horse shit, why do you think I will.

But to answer your question: If I'm Mahomes, I look at my most dangerous to my least dangerous players. And if ARob is on my team, it goes like this:

1) Hill - one of the fastest most dangerous guys in the league
2) Watkins - not near as dangerous as Hill, but more dangerous than ARob. Not as dependable as ARob, but more of a downfield threat.
3) Kelce - Big and Dangerous. If things get hairy, I quickly locate Kelce and forget Hill and Watkins.
4) When I really need to move the chains, I look to Kelce. If Kelce is covered, ARob is my guy. A great receiver who will use his big body and is sure-handed when guys are all over him.

So it depends on the situation. On my own 20 and I have time, I'm looking at Hill, Watkins, Kelce, ARob.

If I'm in the Red Zone: I'm looking at Kelce, Watkins, ARob, Hill.

5 yards out, I'm looking at Kelce, ARob, Watkins, Hill.
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wulfy
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:17 am

Goldman opting out this year actually creates more salary space in 2021 .... he was due to count about $4.85M against the cap this year and over $8M next year. His opting out slides his 2020 number ($4.5) to 2021 and his 2021 number (~$8+M) into 2022.

Bryan Perez with the full story here.
RichH55
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:13 pm

Thanks Wulfy
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Yogi da Bear
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:29 pm

Wounded Bear, I generally agree with your post, except that I think you give way too much credit to Sammy Watkins. A better red zone threat than Robinson? What on earth makes you think that?
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:03 pm

Wounded Bear you forgot one more thing about Robinson. He is the only WR we have on this team that would make the Chiefs roster.

Sorry guys I remember the game and Collinsworth said he would be the third option not WR and that is a big difference. He put him behind Hill and Kelce.

As far as Hill goes I will never give him any respect since that little wanna be gangster deserves to be in Jail. Flippin wanna be
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Re: Is there anyone here that wants to argue against signing ARob to a long term deal?

Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:15 pm

From cbssports.com .... it's in AR3's best interest to get a deal done vs getting tagged next year:
Joel Curry (former NFL Agent) of cbssports.com wrote:Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is a good example to illustrate this point. He will be a top franchise tag candidate in 2021 absent a new deal since he is in the final year of his rookie contract. The wide receiver franchise number is $17.865 million this year. With a $175 million salary cap, the 2021 wide receiver number projects to $15.681 million. That would be a little more than a 12 percent drop from this year. The wide receiver amount would be on par with the 2017 figure of $15.682 million when the salary cap was $167 million. The NFL and NFLPA agreeing to a freeze on franchise and transition numbers would be one way to prevent the decrease from happening.

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