Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Yeah, I remember laughing at Collinsworth over that comment. It was absurd.
It's cute you think you know more about football than Collinsworth. A guy who not only played the position, but now as an announcer, analyzes teams and players on a weekly basis.
Don't get me wrong, he's annoying at times, but I guarantee you, he know a shit ton more about football than you do.
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmRobinson put up a better season than Hill has in 3 of his 4 seasons and did so with Mitch Trubisky throwing to him. In Jacksonville, he matched Hill's best season with Blake Bortles throwing to him.
Wow, to anyone reading, let this be a case study in how and why statistics do not tell the entire story. Only idiots look at the pure numbers and say things like, "Allen Robinson is a better wide-receiver because the number of yards next to his name is bigger than the number of yards next to Tyreek Hill's name..."
So, hmm, why would Allen Robinson have more yards than Tyreek Hill... Could it be that:
Allen Robinson:
*Allen Robinson is the WR1 on the Bears meaning that he is the first option for a young, skittish QB (like Mitch Trubisky) who rarely goes through his progressions.
*Allen Robinson had 24 receptions in his first 4 games compared to Anthony Miller's 4 receptions in his first 4 games.
*Allen Robinson had 17 receptions in his first 3 games compared to Taylor Gabriel's 9 receptions in his first 3 games (I go to three for Taylor since he missed both the 4th and 5th game)
*The Chicago Bears have no Tight End to speak of so Robinson, a big receiver, will get those balls as well.
*David Montgomery wasn't exactly killing it in the pass catching aspect of his game. Even more balls to Robinson.
Now let's look at Tyreek Hill.
Tyreek Hill:
*Tyreek Hill is has Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson as his number 2 and number 3. Both legit wide receivers who Patrick Maholmes will throw to.
*Sammy Watkins stretches the field which competes with Hill as a downfield threat.
*Demarcus Robinson is a solid possession receiver who runs a 4.59 40 (about the same speed as Allen Robinson/actually .01 second faster than Allen Robinson).
*Tight End, Travis Kelse, is one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL and nearly had a thousand yards in receptions.
*The Chiefs offense utilize the running backs frequently in the passing game. The Bears want to, but we don't nearly to the extent the Chiefs actually do.
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmLet's swap Hill and Robinson hypothetically with both of their situations last year. Robinson posted 99-1147-7 with Mitch. With Mahomes throwing him in that offense - those numbers become monstrous.
You put forth an argument with little thought and/or nuance.
There are only so many balls to be caught and when you are competing with 4 other legitimate threats, regardless of how good you are, your numbers won't be as good as a player who plays on a team where the QB rarely goes beyond the first option (especially early in the season).
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmAnd your "moneyball" comment only applies to RB's. WR's have only grown in importance as the passing game continues to dominate the game more and more.
This statement clearly shows that you know nothing about "moneyball" or the simple concept of
supply and demand.
First off, both receivers AND RUNNING BACKS are very important to an offense. But it's not about
how important they are. It's about how
easy it is to replace them.
There are only a few receivers in the league that cannot be replaced because they are such rare talent, such as Tyreek Hill. But most can be replaced because there is a ton of very good receivers coming into the NFL on an annual basis.
This year alone, I was reading several GM's stating that you could get a starting wide receiver well into the 4th round. The same is usually true with running backs.
So that is why moneyball dictates that you do not spend a shit load on running backs or wide receivers because they can be easily replaced with players with affordable rookie contracts. It's common sense.
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmRobinson also isn't a "possession" WR. He's become that because our field shrinks so much with the two QB's we've started over his two seasons.
Neither could throw the ball downfield.
No, he's a possession because he has above 4.6 speed. He shrinks the field because he has 4.6 speed.
What makes him an excellent possession receiver is that he uses his big body extremely well to fight for reception and is sure handed.
Maybe if he lost some weight, his speed would pick up and he could stretch the field, but at this point, he doesn't because he can't.
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmRobinson averaged 17.5 Y/R in that big year in Jacksonville. Better than Hill has ever done in his career. It was a lot of big plays. Not chain moving plays.
Way to cherry pick a five year old stat. Unfortunately, a stat ARob has not gotten close to before or after that year. (btw, Muhsin Muhammad had a season with 16.3 yds/rec. He also had a 1400 yard season.)
Tyreek Hill's average Yards/Reception stat is consistently higher than ARob's because he is far more dangerous and can actually stretch the field unlike Robinson.
Richie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 pmRobinson is one of the very best in all of football. He's a stud.
Tell that to Jalen Ramsey who made the "stud" look like a little boy when we played the Rams last year. ARob had 4 catches for 15 yards (3.8 yds/rec).
A truly elite receiver may have difficulties with a talented CB like Jalen Ramsey, but he wouldn't be completely shut down like Robinson was. It was embarrassing.
Meanwhile the NFL just came out with their Top 100 players.
Tyreek Hill is ranked #22 in the NFL. #19 in 2019.
Allen Robinson is ranked #93 in the NFL.
I'm no mathematician, but that's 71 spots.
Jesus Christ, you just went on and on about how ARob was better than Tyreek Hill and now you're saying you agree that Hill is better than ARob?! If you can't swallow your own horse shit, why do you think I will.
But to answer your question: If I'm Mahomes, I look at my most dangerous to my least dangerous players. And if ARob is on my team, it goes like this:
1) Hill - one of the fastest most dangerous guys in the league
2) Watkins - not near as dangerous as Hill, but more dangerous than ARob. Not as dependable as ARob, but more of a downfield threat.
3) Kelce - Big and Dangerous. If things get hairy, I quickly locate Kelce and forget Hill and Watkins.
4) When I really need to move the chains, I look to Kelce. If Kelce is covered, ARob is my guy. A great receiver who will use his big body and is sure-handed when guys are all over him.
So it depends on the situation. On my own 20 and I have time, I'm looking at Hill, Watkins, Kelce, ARob.
If I'm in the Red Zone: I'm looking at Kelce, Watkins, ARob, Hill.
5 yards out, I'm looking at Kelce, ARob, Watkins, Hill.
