Kmet's involvement year #1

Richie · Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:26 pm

Curious as to how much we see him making an impact in year #1. It's rather widely accepted that rookie TE's aren't going to contribute a whole bunch. When you look at the elite TE pass catchers over the past decade, it makes sense. Graham, Gates, and Kelce... these guys did absolutely nothing in their rookie seasons. Ertz, Kittle, Olsen... these guys did a little bit more than nothing. Rather minimal contributions, though.

There are your rare outliers like Evan Engram. Who came on rather strong right away in 2017. Gronk caught 10 TD's in his rookie season, but was mostly limited to red zone snaps. He more than doubled his yardage and nearly doubled that TD count in year #2.

It's a big learning curve for young TE's. Especially since Kmet profiles as a guy who really has work to do with his blocking.

Our offense obviously utilizes multiple TE's and for different purposes. U, X, Y, Z. However, I don't anticipate we see Kmet getting heavy snap loads until Jimmy Graham departs from this team. Graham will be our featured pass catcher in the group and play the U. While Harris is easily our best blocker. Kmet doesn't profile as an in-line TE anyway.

I'm not saying Kmet doesn't have some packages and make a play here or there. However, it should be a minimal contribution.

Arkansasbear · Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:21 am

I think he will, by week 4, be a starting TE with Graham. So I see him getting lots of reps, but he won't be asked to do a ton from a receiving standpoint. I see him with at least 20 catches but a max of 40 (and that likely means Graham sucks or is hurt).

Moriarty · Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:12 am

No question you can't set the bar very high for year 1 - especially if 2020, with limited practices, turns out to be his year 1.

They picked up Harris knowing they needed help there even if they drafted someone.

WagonForce · Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:33 am

I don't expect much, if any, production from Kmet this year. Anything he puts together on the field in the 2020/2021 season I view as a bonus.

This doesn't diminish my feeling that he will develop into a great NFL player.

Umbali · Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:59 pm

I dunno, I can see Nagy designing plays where he can get loose up the middle and exploit the size and speed advantage against a linebacker. However...who knows. I just want to see good production from our TE group..not just Kmet

Arkansasbear · Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:58 pm

Word from practice today was he was playing well and making several catches in the redzone

https://sportsmockery.com/2020/08/chica ... -practice/

Mikefive · Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:24 pm

Umbali wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:59 pm I dunno, I can see Nagy designing plays where he can get loose up the middle and exploit the size and speed advantage against a linebacker. However...who knows. I just want to see good production from our TE group..not just Kmet

But how much speed advantage will he have? He sure looks to me like a thicker, 2-way player than a tall WR. And that's OK. But it doesn't lend itself to him being a big receiving threat in year 1. It would be just fine if we could see him play a lot of 2nd TE and help out the run game with the occasional release as a short range target. If he does that and catches 25 balls, that's a reasonable expectation.

dplank · Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:12 pm

Kmet is a highly regarded prospect. I think it’s fair to hope for a little more than that.

Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:23 am

I think his work is going to be done in the redzone with some occasional work in the seam.

G08 · Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:29 am

I just want him to master blocking this season. Get that shit down, be serviceable, and we can sprinkle in some PA or misdirection shots to him. He doesn't need to be a 75, 80 target guy.

If he can keep defenses honest with not knowing if it is run or pass, that's a win for us in 12 personnel.

IE · Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:50 am

Yeah agreed if he can block in line and bring that value to the team... that's the biggest need. He'll get his looks and opportunities in the red zone because he's a big target and also they'll want to show off their new toy a bit and make sure other teams consider him a threat in that way.

I'll guess he'll have at most 20-25 catches and 3-4 TDs which would be great because there are a lot of hands to feed on this team. Of course it would always be welcome if he showed as an out-of-the-box complete TE and put up 50-60/8-10 on top of blocking. We can dream!

Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:07 pm

Regarding his speed, he looks to be back down to the 245-250 range he was at before breaking his collar bone before his junior season. I think he was a little sluggish and lumbering after the injury. He's a much better athlete than he showed at times last year.

Richie · Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:49 pm

dplank wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:12 pm Kmet is a highly regarded prospect. I think it’s fair to hope for a little more than that.

I mean, regardless of where you're drafted. TE's aren't expected to do much of anything year #1. As I pointed out, even the elite guys recently did very little. Kelce literally played in one game. Jimmy Graham did nothing. It almost always takes until year #2 when TE's are able to take on full-time roles. Nature of the position.

Long-term? Yes, we have expectations. This year? Any contributions he makes will almost be a bonus.

dplank · Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:03 pm

Hockensen was a highly targeted rookie for the Lions last year. It can happen if the situation is right.

The Cooler King · Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:39 pm

dplank wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:03 pm Hockensen was a highly targeted rookie for the Lions last year. It can happen if the situation is right.

Kmet is in a much different spot expectation wise than Hockensen.

dplank · Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:47 am

He is. Graham should cyphon the majority of catches most likely. BUT, Nagy might finally have the TE room where he wants it and I could see a year where the TE's do a LOT of damage out there as a group. Harris is going to get some time also, so the likelihood that Kmet has a big statistical year is pretty low. And it doesn't mean he isn't any good. I agree with all of that.

The Cooler King · Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:07 am

dplank wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:47 am He is. Graham should cyphon the majority of catches most likely. BUT, Nagy might finally have the TE room where he wants it and I could see a year where the TE's do a LOT of damage out there as a group. Harris is going to get some time also, so the likelihood that Kmet has a big statistical year is pretty low. And it doesn't mean he isn't any good. I agree with all of that.

It's possible. In the high end of TE targets last year was PHI with 235 targets to their TEs. If you look at the upper quartile those teams on average targeted their TEs 9-10 a game, but really only 3 of those teams targeted their number 2 TE a sigificant amount. The other 5 teams were just really heavy on their number 1.

Worth mentioning that PHI and IND are two of those three teams, which both come out of the Reid tree like Nagy. Interestingly though, those two teams are really on the low end of catch % so they weren't necessarily getting as much out of those targets (65% and 60% catch rate whereas most other top TE usage teams were getting at least 70% and as high as 77-78% out of their TE targets.) On the high end that means a team like SFO or OAK was getting 30-35% more yard per TE target than IND or PHI. Maybe there was something in the Bay air

The Cooler King · Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:27 am

One point to add the last part there.

Bears were 32nd overall in Y/A in the overall pass game and 31st for Yds/target to TE. So while even modest improvement to the TE group could theoretically go a long way towards even being a middle of the pack passing team, it's worth mentioning that Ind was 30th and PHI 26th on overall Y/A, so forcing it to their TEs wasn't something that opened up the rest of their passing game either. Whereas the other top TE passing teams all were top 10 in Y/A, and really in overall offense Yards/Play. This is obviously also all limited to a single season sample and there's other factors like QB and supporting teammates... But something to chew on.

Arkansasbear · Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:07 am

Some highlights from practice that open up with him "breaking some tackles." I think the video is from Saturday as it shows a great pass down the middle to Horsted that was talked about in another piece that was talking about Saturday's scrimmage.

https://sportsmockery.com/2020/08/video ... king-kong/

BTW, good to see BillGeorge61 in da house - AKA The Cooler King.

IE · Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:28 pm

Arkansasbear wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:07 am Some highlights from practice that open up with him "breaking some tackles." I think the video is from Saturday as it shows a great pass down the middle to Horsted that was talked about in another piece that was talking about Saturday's scrimmage.

https://sportsmockery.com/2020/08/video ... king-kong/

BTW, good to see BillGeorge61 in da house - AKA The Cooler King.

My boy Jesper appears to have packed on a few good lbs if the videos I've seen aren't deceiving my eyes. That's good. Maybe he will get some time spelling Jimmy.

Some more reps with the playbook in the offseason and more strength will certainly help him in other aspects of the game. But he's kinda always going to be a Trey Burton type, and I don't expect him to be a fierce blocker. Just make spectacular catches!

RichH55 · Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:48 pm

The Cooler King wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:27 am One point to add the last part there.

Bears were 32nd overall in Y/A in the overall pass game and 31st for Yds/target to TE. So while even modest improvement to the TE group could theoretically go a long way towards even being a middle of the pack passing team, it's worth mentioning that Ind was 30th and PHI 26th on overall Y/A, so forcing it to their TEs wasn't something that opened up the rest of their passing game either. Whereas the other top TE passing teams all were top 10 in Y/A, and really in overall offense Yards/Play. This is obviously also all limited to a single season sample and there's other factors like QB and supporting teammates... But something to chew on.

Great posts

Umbali · Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:08 am

I think we will see him a bit more than what you normally get out of your typical rookie T/E. Part of that might be forced out of a sense of urgency and part may be he actually has picked up the intellectual part of the position as quickly as the coaches have said. I wonder how many 2 T/E sets you will see also simply because there are so many question marks at our W/R position.

Arkansasbear · Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 am

Umbali wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:08 am I think we will see him a bit more than what you normally get out of your typical rookie T/E. Part of that might be forced out of a sense of urgency and part may be he actually has picked up the intellectual part of the position as quickly as the coaches have said. I wonder how many 2 T/E sets you will see also simply because there are so many question marks at our W/R position.

I think we will see a lot more 2 TE sets as that is what Nagy prefers and we now have enough talent at the spot to run it. Even if you through Kmet out of the equations, Grahme + Harri > Burton + Shaneen. Plus I think Kmet takes over for Harris by week 4. I actually think when you factor in Horsted and Holtz our TE in room is very talented.