That QB's are held back by supporting casts.
I don't think I buy it anymore. For years, I would dive into the arguments of "if this guy had a better O-line, receivers, play calling, system, etc. He would be good/elite!" Either I totally don't buy it anymore... or it's used so much by every fan-base unable to accept a failed/under performing QB that I am sick of it. If it's true - it's correct somewhere between 1-5% of the time it is used for a QB. Not only that, it's only ever true for extremely young QB's.
If he has been playing for a handful of years? Fucking stop. He is what he is. And even if after just say... two years. If you're LIGHT YEARS away from producing at a high level? Like, you have a negative or even TD/INT ratio. What are we really talking about? How much are the right pieces going to do for you? You're lost out there. What? If EVERY SINGLE thing is in line for you. You might be just regular shitty or maybe below average instead of arguably the worst starter in the league?
Like, think through the NEVER ENDING list of QB's you have heard get the usual laundry list of excuses for shortcomings. How many of those QB's have wound up truly successful, legit long-term franchise QB's? Very, very few.
I also just can't get into it anymore because fans are so full of shit (myself included) and attach themselves to desired conclusions.
I mean, when somebody likes a QB or wants them to succeed for their own team. How many times have they said to you "Of course, they're not performing. Who could with that line/receivers?". Then, think about that same person discussing a QB they don't like or maybe they adamantly shouted that they sucked coming out of college. So, they have some interest in them failing. But... they come out red hot in their first couple seasons. THAT SAME PERSON will then say "Of course they're lighting it up. Look at the line and receivers (or system) they have! It's really not him!"
So, let me get this straight. When a particular QB DOES NOT have the pieces you claim he needs to succeed and fails. It's NOT on him. You need those things to succeed, right? But then, when another QB DOES HAVE those pieces and SUCCEEDS. He deserves no credit... why now? I thought EVERYONE needed these pieces?
To clarify further. I don't mean that poor line or receiver play/injuries in a given season can't create struggles. Lowering an established QB's level of production. Meaning, a tier 1 guy can produce at a tier 2 level, tier 2 can drop to tier 3, etc. On the same token, a QB can be facilitated in the other direction. And yes... there are some exceptions of true volatility and I get that. Rich Gannon won an MVP. Crazy shit can happen if all the stars PERFECTLY align for a year or two. However, that stuff is few and far between. Overall, over an extended period of time. How you play is what you are.
The exceptions like a Rich Gannon are extreme outliers and if I always take the position of "He just sucks and he always will" or "He's not elite and he never will be" I will be right 95-99% of the time.
FWIW, I think this is what separates the truly elite from 2nd/3rd rate QB's. The former just always have their window open because they're almost going to play at an elite level. The latter will get one year to make the most out of it where the stars are aligning everywhere and they're producing at an elite/perhaps MVP level. Elite = I never have to argue you're elite. You just are. Typically, regardless of what's going on.
This is especially true in the salary cap era - where overall team talent doesn't have that big of a gap. I never watched Archie Manning or Steve Young in TB. So, I'm not really speaking to that.
In conclusion, fuck all the QB's besides like 4 of them. The rest are dog shit and will probably never be better than they are.
Wake up.
