The "Gardner Minshew" Memorial Thread of Whatever

[IE]

Maybe Jax shut it down or just said they aren't talking until after things get closer with Lawrence. Who knows - maybe Lawrence will be at a pot party and look like he's considering jumping from a balcony when the cops show up.

Everything's for sale. There's going to be a market for Minshew now that they won't have maybe even next year. Buy low; sell high.

[Moriarty]

Maybe Jax shut it down or just said they aren't talking until after things get closer with Lawrence. Who knows - maybe Lawrence will be at a pot party and look like he's considering jumping from a balcony when the cops show up.

Everything's for sale. There's going to be a market for Minshew now that they won't have maybe even next year. Buy low; sell high.

That's kind of what I've been expecting - talk heats up in the week before the draft, once they're totally convinced that they are going Lawrence.

[IE]

As long as Bear fans are talking about propping up Alex Smith's body in '21 or considering a trade for a guy like Darnold over a guy who has already demonstrated he can actually play well in the NFL on a bad team ... I'll keep bumping this Minshew thread up.

OK maybe it isn't fair to say Darnold hasn't played well. He's actually had some good quality wins (a good handful). I actually like Darnold, and would like to see what he could do on a decent team. But I'd 100% much rather see the guy who has already shown what I consider to be above-average QB performance in the NFL. Glory Days are over. They're not in college anymore and those pedigrees don't mean shit. We're in "prove something" days. Don't get me wrong... again, I like Darnold as an option but just not as much as Minshew.

Why? Well, first he seem to protect the ball in an elite way (percentages wise), considering his circumstances. I think attitude and composure MEANS something in the NFL. Not Manziel dumb frat boy overconfidence - but definitely Baker Mayfield type self-confidence and not taking oneself seriously while simultaneously demonstrating competence at NFL level. This is a guy with the swagger to lead & calm the team and go beat Green Bay but without the careless and wild "moxie" of Grossman or Cutler that dashed our hopes over & over again.

Jorts and Mississippi Mudflap in Chicago. Quick - before someone like the Packers or Patriots grab him for another decade of winning. A 3rd rounder almost certainly won't do it.

This is hilarious. This guy would OWN the Chicago media, in a good way.

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/gardne ... f0bgg9an5s

[IE]

I personally think it will take a 2nd rounder or a really good starting defensive player.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nfl ... I4V-pyVPQI

[The Marshall Plan]

I personally think it will take a 2nd rounder or a really good starting defensive player.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nfl ... I4V-pyVPQI

I would trade Roquan for Minshew right now if I could.

If we acquired a good QB with a future and maintained the first and second picks so we could rebuild the OL that would be an enormous win.

[IE]

I'm seeing some interest on Darnold out there. I like him a bit. He has some good tape. His stats are decent, for being on a bad team. But I don't think he's even close to Minshew. At some point, their draft status has to be far less meaningful than what they've actually done in the NFL. A look at some good comparisons & context tells the story.

I've said this before, there are leadership and competitive qualities (evident in the stats) that I personally believe separates Minshew: "How does a guy play even when things are cratering around him?" Does he stand & put up a good fight? Or does he go south with the team? Does he get frustrated, snowball bad decisions and start throwing interceptions? Or does he stay competitive? My conclusion is Minshew is competitive with a very high floor. He's not the reason his team loses, and plays well in spite of his team being beaten. And when things are going well, he plays very well.

Stats and splits comparisons:

Good performance in losses: Is he unflappable? Does the QB still play well even when his team is outmatched and loses? If "garbage" time is so easy... why can't these other guys manage it?
- Minshew in 20 starts (7 wins; 13 losses) he has 8 games where he put up a 90 rating or better in a LOSS (62% of his losses, he plays very well!). What would his record be with a good supporting cast?
- Darnold has only 4 90+ rating losses in 25 losses in his 38 games. (less than 20%)
- For comparison, Mitch Trubisky has 4 90+ rating losses in 21 losses in his ~50 games. (less than 25%)

Poor performance in wins: Does the team win in spite of the QB?
- Minshew has only 1 of 7 wins below a 90 rating (85). The kid shows up. Even his "bad game" win wasn't *that* bad. His team NEVER wins in spite of him.
- Darnold has 4 of 13 wins below 90 rating (76,87,84,87). 1/3 of the time, when Darnold's team wins it wins in spite of him.
- For comparison, Trubisky has 13 of his 29 wins below a 90 rating (8 in the 70s or below including a 33). Almost 45% (!!) of the time, the Bears have won in spite of him.

Poor performances: When he trots out there, how often can you expect the QB to have a REALLY bad game?
- Minshew has 6 out of 20 starts under an 80 rating. But never under 50. And only two under 70. He just plain has a high floor. He's really never ugly bad ... which would be a first for Bear fans (at least in a long time).
- Darnold in HALF of his 38 games he has below an 80 rating. Including SIX below a 50. He had 7-8 of them in 2020... not a good sign in his 3rd year. Half the time you can expect bad. And in almost 20% ugly bad.
- Trubisky has 22 games out of 50 under an 80 rating? 44%!! 3 below 50 and about 10 in the 60s. That's 13 ugly bad games... almost 25% of his games are ugly, embarrassing performances. I don't need to tell Bear fans who those are against (good teams).

Turnovers: Does the QB protect the ball and not give the other team gifts? Does he "see ghosts"?
- Minshew had 14 TDs and ZERO INT in the red zone in '20. Overall in 20 games he's at 37 TDs to 11 INTs (3.5:1). Per game fumble rate was .7 in '19 and about .5 in '20. He protects the ball, and doesn't become part of the problem
- Darnold had 5 TDs and 3 INT in the red zone. Darnold is a 1:1 TD/INT guy. He doesn't fumble much - only once in every 2-3 games in his career.
- For comparison, Trubisky had 13 TD and 3 INT in the red zone in '20... an improvement in his red zone turnovers. Mitch is a 2:1 TD/INT guy since '18.. but the catch is 12 of those (20% of his career total!) are against the Lions in only 4 games...30% when you include 2-3 more big games! This is why his average stats look better than his median stats... in 10% of his starts (always against bums) you get 3 TDs or more. Nevermind the 45% that are ugly performances. Mitch is average with fumbling. He fumbled in only 1 out of 2-3 games in '18 and '19, but in '20 that increased to .5 rate.

Ball Possession - 3rd down performance: How does the QB perform in terms of holding onto the ball / resting the D by converting 3rd downs?
- Minshew had 70% completions and a 118 rating on 3rd down (52% / 84 in '19, as a rookie)
- Darnold had 53% completions and a 70 rating on 3rd down (54% / 76 in '19)
- For comparison, Trubisky had 56% completions and a 63 rating on 3rd down (60% / 81 in '19)

There's a lot more. Situational stats still need context. But some good comparisons can be made that separate the men from the boys, IMO.

[The Marshall Plan]

Darnold is a hard no for me.

I’ve gone Meatball 4 Minshew if we can’t get Watson.

You laid out the case really well in your post so I don’t know what there is to add with the numbers.

One thing I’ll say is that Minshew succeeded on a poor team. Darnold did not.

[HurricaneBear]

Ill be disappointed but give Minshew a chance if he ended up being the guy next season.

If it's Darnold i'll just wrap up watching football early because the season is over. Darnold is fucking terrible. And he's terrible because he is not a good QB, being on the Jets is just a coincidence.

[wulfy]

Sam Darnold was pretty damn good at USC. Now after saying that, I'd rather bring Mitch back than spend any draft capital on brining Darnold here.

I could live with Minshew for a test drive - but wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him.

[wab]

Minshew is currently connected to the WFT and the Pats, FWIW.

[IE]

For the guys who are lukewarm on Minshew... can you explain why? There has to be something I've missed. I love context, so what it is I'm missing? I know it is a lot, but did you see the splits/stats I shared. They're kind of astonishing, given the context.

[wulfy]

Of the non Watson/Wilson options that are available for trade or free agency, I would say Minshew is probably the best option. I just don't want to overpay and over-commit financially to a relative unknown commodity in this particular scheme.

1. Watson (will never happen)
2. Wilson
3. Minshew
4. Jimmy G
5. Winston
789. Foles
822. Mitch

[dplank]

For the guys who are lukewarm on Minshew... can you explain why? There has to be something I've missed. I love context, so what it is I'm missing? I know it is a lot, but did you see the splits/stats I shared. They're kind of astonishing, given the context.

I posted this in the other thread, but it belonged here so I'll answer here as well.

No one knows Minshew better than Jacksonville. They've had him for a few years now. They liked him enough to have him start a number of games for them, so it's not like they hate the guy or anything. But, they clearly don't view him as a championship caliber player. If they did, they would not have "tanked for Trevor" and, even if they still landed on the top pick, they'd be actively looking to trade that pick for what would be a monumental haul. That point is crucial. If they honestly believed that Minshew was a championship caliber QB, no matter how great they might think Trevor could be, they'd take that bird in hand and use the opportunity to get a huge return for trading that pick.

And so that alone tells me that the Jags don't REALLY view him in the way that you do by reading his stat lines. Couple that with the "they know him better than anyone" fact, and the fact that every media head / ex player/gm type out there seems to see him as a "good backup", all jives as extra data points that I value less overall but reinforce the main thought above. And the answer I've heard thus far is "Jacksonville is stupid and the talking heads can't read stat sheets", which just isn't a strong enough argument to get me super excited about the guy. I can see it, hence why I don't push back entirely, but I'm lukewarm on Minshew.

[wab]

I’m not saying I 100% agree with this, but there’s some interesting commentary in here about Minshew’s stats looking better than they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blackandte ... -time/amp/

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/kirk ... bage-time/

[IE]

I saw the garbage time article, and his splits basically prove that as nonsense. He actually had worse stats in garbage time than non-garbage time - garbage time dragged him down! Its the opposite of what we'd expect - as opposed to things like (for example) throwing for zero yards in the first half against the Saints and doing nothing well into the 3rd quarter, but then against a prevent D throwing 2 TDs for 100 yard to Arob.

The garbage time article (or one I saw) showed that ARob is one of the kings of garbage time.

From the first article, which is referenced in the second article (there is only one article):

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars: 102 garbage-time attempts
Minshew also attempted 78 garbage-time passes as a rookie in 2019. That means that 22.5% of his career pass attempts occurred when his Jacksonville Jaguars were getting blown out. Minshew completed 61.8% of his passes and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in garbage time last year. Those numbers were lower than his 66.1% completion rate and 6.9 yards per attempt for the whole season.

On the one hand, it’s hard to argue that Minshew benefitted from padded stats. On the other hand, it’s hard to be too optimistic about a quarterback’s future who always seems to look gritty and determined when playing from way, way behind.

After that they say anyone who signs Minshew should get used to losing with "groovy grace". They actually said that. That's a load of horseshit. He wasn't always playing from way, way behind.

Again - his splits make these authors look like morons. They're saying what they think people want to hear, and appealing to generalizations. It's nonsense.

[Burl]

... so why did Minshew get benched for Foles and Glennon again?

[dplank]

... so why did Minshew get benched for Foles and Glennon again?

...and why is Jacksonville looking to move on from him instead of keeping him and netting, oh I dunno, 3 first round picks plus some players for the Trevor draft rights?

You're missing something IE, I don't watch Jaguars games enough to try and say exactly what that is, but the facts just don't line up other than a pure view of the stat sheet.

[Otis Day]

For Glennon. The tank was on. For Foles, I would imagine they wanted to see if they could get their money's worth.

[IE]

... so why did Minshew get benched for Foles and Glennon again?

Well, in 2019 with Foles they paid him a fortune so it *kinda* makes sense they would want to see him succeed. Or am I wrong there?

Last year Minshew hurt his thumb, hid it from the coaches and played with it for a few games and then they went with Glennon so he could heal. He had a 94 rating against Houston and 97 rating against the Chargers with a broken hand...

Anyway, when his hand was feeling better a few games later, the story is Morrone had he and Glennon split snaps in practice and Glennon got the nod for whatever reason. It is reported Minshew wasn't happy that he didn't have his starting job back. Glennon wasn't playing well, so it is a bit of a mystery that they didn't go back to the guy who had been playing better. Or IS IT? They DID insert him for 1.5 games - one against Indy and one against Baltimore, where he played well but had no prayer of winning.

Glennon was put back in for the last 2 games. Do you really need clarity around where Jax was at later in the season last year? To me it is intuitively obvious. But if you weren't paying attention to the Tank for Trevor sweepstakes then I'll just say I think it was to cement their position to get a player who many consider to be the best talent to come out in decades. I didn't say Minshew was GOD. I AM saying he's the best option for the Bears. And he's really good. For the cost and the potential upside, it's a no-brainer.

Don't worry - you'll likely see it. It just won't be on the Bears because Minshew is a stand-up double & Pace needs to swing for the fence.

https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2020/11/6 ... ery-stupid

[IE]

Sorry, Plank. You keep saying yourself that you give up whatever you can for a generational talent or transcendent QB. You can't turn around and then call Jax crazy for going all in and rejecting 3-4 first rounders for Trevor.

It has nothing to do with Minshew's abilities. Which again - are just really good. I never approached delusion or called him a GOAT or even potential one. All I'm doing is saying he's way better than a superficial look implies, and it is absolutely worth pursuing to make sure he isn't a LOT better on a good team. If he isn't, it hasn't cost you anything. But his demonstrated floor on the Jags suggests the Bears - a team that has won 45% of its games in the past 4 years in SPITE of its main QB - would win a LOT with him.

[dplank]

Sorry, Plank. You keep saying yourself that you give up whatever you can for a generational talent or transcendent QB. You can't turn around and then call Jax crazy for going all in and rejecting 3-4 first rounders for Trevor.

It has nothing to do with Minshew's abilities. Which again - are just really good. I never approached delusion or called him a GOAT or even potential one. All I'm doing is saying he's way better than a superficial look implies, and it is absolutely worth pursuing to make sure he isn't a LOT better on a good team. If he isn't, it hasn't cost you anything. But his demonstrated floor on the Jags suggests the Bears - a team that has won 45% of its games in the past 4 years in SPITE of its main QB - would win a LOT with him.

I couldn't disagree more bud, sorry. You don't pass up on a huge draft haul if you think you already have your guy! You move mountains until you have your guy, then when you do you build around him. Jacksonville has CLEARLY INDICATED that Minshew is not the guy - period full stop. You asked why I was luke warm on him, that's why. Because Jacksonville doesn't see him as their guy, and they know him best.

[The Marshall Plan]

@dplank

Dude I think you’re great but I disagree.

The answer to your concern about Minshew vs drafting Lawrence is that if you have the opportunity to upgrade your QB you do so.

Same reason why the Packers drafted Rodgers even though they had Favre.

Lawrence is a better prospect than Minshew is a pro. There are only a handful of teams in the league that if they had the 1 drafting Lawrence would be a downgrade.

I’m not saying Minshew is the second coming, but he is a pretty good QB with the potential to be very very above average. His cost is also what is attractive.

Before I continue though, I’m all in on Watson. I’m not trying to sound like I’m all for Minshew.

Anyway, I love the idea of Roquan for Minshew plus a second. We shouldn’t sign Roquan to a long term deal anyway. He’s good but he ain’t Ray Lewis.

Given that, I say get something for him now given that ILB isn’t a make or break position.

Going into the draft with the QB situation solved plus an extra second while hanging onto the first is a huge win.

[Otis Day]

So is Seattle saying Russell isn't their guy? I get where IE is coming from, cost vs. reward. As of right now, Minshew wins that. I think trading a haul of pics and a player or 2 for Watson or Russell does not equal Super Bowl this year or lasting top shelf play. I believe it makes you a playoff contender, maybe. I believe the cost for the next 3 yrs is prohibitive.

[dplank]

@dplank

Dude I think you’re great but I disagree.

The answer to your concern about Minshew vs drafting Lawrence is that if you have the opportunity to upgrade your QB you do so.

Same reason why the Packers drafted Rodgers even though they had Favre.

Lawrence is a better prospect than Minshew is a pro. There are only a handful of teams in the league that if they had the 1 drafting Lawrence would be a downgrade.

I’m not saying Minshew is the second coming, but he is a pretty good QB with the potential to be very very above average. His cost is also what is attractive.

Before I continue though, I’m all in on Watson. I’m not trying to sound like I’m all for Minshew.

Anyway, I love the idea of Roquan for Minshew plus a second. We shouldn’t sign Roquan to a long term deal anyway. He’s good but he ain’t Ray Lewis.

Given that, I say get something for him now given that ILB isn’t a make or break position.

Going into the draft with the QB situation solved plus an extra second while hanging onto the first is a huge win.

The Packers drafted Rodgers when Favre was near the end of his career as an heir apparent. They were not spending high firsts on QBs in his prime and certainly not when he was in his 3rd year. That’s fundamentally different. And actually makes my point even moreso.

[The Marshall Plan]

@dplank

Dude I think you’re great but I disagree.

The answer to your concern about Minshew vs drafting Lawrence is that if you have the opportunity to upgrade your QB you do so.

Same reason why the Packers drafted Rodgers even though they had Favre.

Lawrence is a better prospect than Minshew is a pro. There are only a handful of teams in the league that if they had the 1 drafting Lawrence would be a downgrade.

I’m not saying Minshew is the second coming, but he is a pretty good QB with the potential to be very very above average. His cost is also what is attractive.

Before I continue though, I’m all in on Watson. I’m not trying to sound like I’m all for Minshew.

Anyway, I love the idea of Roquan for Minshew plus a second. We shouldn’t sign Roquan to a long term deal anyway. He’s good but he ain’t Ray Lewis.

Given that, I say get something for him now given that ILB isn’t a make or break position.

Going into the draft with the QB situation solved plus an extra second while hanging onto the first is a huge win.

The Packers drafted Rodgers when Favre was near the end of his career as an heir apparent. They were not spending high firsts on QBs in his prime and certainly not when he was in his 3rd year. That’s fundamentally different. And actually makes my point even moreso.

It doesn’t matter where your current QB is in his career as to whether or not you upgrade to a better option.

Are you really trying to say that if a team has a good QB but a high first that would enable a franchise QB that they should ignore that? No way. You upgrade the most important position on the field.

[Moriarty]

The Jags Q/A guy thinks getting a 4th for Minshew may be stretching it.

https://www.jaguars.com/news/o-zone-oh-no

Reuben from Pikesville

I don't know why Minshew isn't shopped for a late pick. Whatever the circumstances, the fact remains that he compiled good numbers and teams with picks like the New England Patriots and Washington could afford to part with a fourth-round pick for a young quarterback with some ability. The Falcons did trade Brett Favre...

Perhaps that will happen. I'm not sure Minshew will bring a selection quite so early as the fourth round, but we'll see.

[dplank]

The Packers drafted Rodgers when Favre was near the end of his career as an heir apparent. They were not spending high firsts on QBs in his prime and certainly not when he was in his 3rd year. That’s fundamentally different. And actually makes my point even moreso.

It doesn’t matter where your current QB is in his career as to whether or not you upgrade to a better option.

Are you really trying to say that if a team has a good QB but a high first that would enable a franchise QB that they should ignore that? No way. You upgrade the most important position on the field.

When has that ever happened? Can you name one time a team drafted a new QB to replace a really good one they already had - where it wasn’t age / succession planning as the primary motivation?

[dplank]

May not matter man, the Russ Twitter talk is going nuts today! I’m thinking it happens!

[Grizzled]

The amount of first round talent that Jax has drafted and screwed up keeping would stock a Super Bowl winning team. They also took Blake Bortles 3rd in the draft. Their personnel management ain’t exactly top notch. Their best move is to keep Minshew and play him until Lawrence is ready, which means they won’t.

[wab]

I’m kinda with Plank here. If Minshew was as good as advertised, I’d take the haul of picks they’d get for #1 to build around him.