dplank wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:36 am
RichH55 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:06 pm
I absolutely do ding Lawrence for the talent around him and a good chunk of the schedule
(I wasnt the one who liked to ignore 17 INT against that similar inferior competition for most of the year when it was a different Clemson QB)
So, I'm going to appeal to your seeming attempt at better behavior and post this here for you to read again - I've mentioned it more than once but I'll give benefit of doubt that maybe you just didn't bother to read it. And after reading it now, I'd ask that you stop misrepresenting that I "like to ignore 17 INT" on Watson and not mention that again as it's a blatant lie. Thanks!
dplank wrote:
In Watsons sophomore year, he had combined rushing/passing TD's: 47 against 13 picks.
In Watsons junior year, he had a combined rushing/passing TD's: 50 against 17 picks.
And yards combined, sophomore year was 5,214 and junior was almost identical.
Trevor Lawrence sophomore year, about 4,200 combined yards, 45 TD against 8 picks
Trevor Lawrence junior year, about 3,400 combined yards, 32 TD against 5 picks
When I look at these numbers and put them in context of the team they played on, I see Watson as the better player. Now, I can see the value in the reduced INT's from Lawrence, I'm not blind to it, but he's behind every other category, BIG in some cases, and the fact is Lawrence had a GREAT defense so he didn't have to force it as much. That plays both ways, meaning that fact would also suppress his yardage/TD numbers as well as the INT numbers because he wasn't having to run up the score as much and take as many chances. These things go hand in hand, context matters.
You may feel Lawrence is the better player, that's fine and that's NOT the point here. So please save it and focus on the actual point being made. The point is that the national media has anointed Lawrence a "generational talent" (the last one was Andrew Luck, hmmmmm) and found all sorts of reasons to ding Watson - many so much so that they sandbagged him as a 2nd rounder LMAO. It's very difficult to justify that when objectively looking at the two players, but that's exactly what happened. And we know the rest of the story now.
And now back to the issue - I've never heard you actually ding Lawrence. Maybe you have and I haven't read it, if so please feel free to quote yourself and I'll retract. All I recall you ever saying about him is that he's "generational". No dings or downgrades or qualifications about opposing talent / team talent disparity or anything else. Not until after you were called out for it.
IMHO Yeah it's largely glossing over the INT thing and then saying things like the other stuff clearly shows Watson is better!!!!
17 INT in 1 College Season these days - especially when a team plays a schedule like Clemson does - Is Simply A Lot. No two ways about that (even when you try and piggyback in Runnings Stats - but Make sure to not note that they fell markedly in Watsons Jr Year in both Yards and YPC). And with Running Stats for QBs - that is something to be careful about for College numbers Not coo about - especially when the guy is more of a Good Athlete than a Great one (this wasn't Lamar Jackson or Vick or even the Size of Cam Newton)
Nor is it clear why running numbers defer away from Interception numbers -
The above analysis is iffy based on some bias IMHO
For instance - I do have a preference in the players - But
I don't have a strong opinion on
Player A. 69% Completion, 9.4 YPA, 169 Rating (**)
Player B 67% Completely, 7.9 YPA, 151.1 Rating
Not really - both are really good numbers - Video Game basically - but Player A is Lawrence there and B is Watson so its weird when that is read as Watson is clearly the better player -But to me those numbers just say both were really good in College
As far as context mattering - Watsons numbers got worse in many of these categories from Sophomore Year to Junior year - Never addressed of course (at least not in the above post - maybe elsewhere)- but that is also a negative thing
(Watson threw for 400 more yards and 6 more TD his Junior year - but his Rushing yards fell markedly (40+%), he threw more INT, completion %/ YPA/ Passer Rating all fell (in fairness some only by a little)
But this statement - Lawrence is "he's behind every other category" - is demonstrably false
(**) I think the Rate stat is absolute garbage - but you seem to like it so weird that its not more prominent in the above analysis
It's also really a red flag to look at Junior years and total yardage - but not acknowledge that one guy played 15 Games that year and the other played 10 - Weird Choice but ok (And yes even in Sophomore year and true Freshman year Lawrence threw 12 INT TOTAL in 30 Games) Maybe Watson was just that much better at not getting Covid?!??
Defense point
Lawrence's "GREAT " Defense - 0 Players drafted. 2 players did get 1st team ACC (Kendrick was dismissed from the team and missed multiple 2020 games due to Disciplinary Reasons - but he was first team ACC). We both agree the ACC isn't the best of conferences right? (For both Lawrence and Watsons tenures)
No national award winners, No All-Americans
(***) In fairness I fully expect the Sophomore DT they have who WAS 1st team ACC to probably be a very high draft pick so we should add that in for sure
All awards and such taken from Wikipedia (so apologies if they missed anything pertinent - happy to add it in!!!)
Watson's Lesser Defense? (Based on context we can assume it wasn't GREAT) -
2 Defensive Players drafted in 2017 (3rd and 4th Rounds respectively)
Ben Boulware (not drafted) - Did win the Lambert Award, Co-Defensive ACC Defensive Player of the Year
Wilkins - future 1st Round pick, All American
Dexter Lawrence - future 1st Round pick, Freshman All American,
Whats messed up - Watson was only 2nd team ACC his Junior Year - Wild - I certainly don't agree there but he was (even with the INT and the lesser running numbers his Junior year he was a helluva College QB and the ACC isn't that great)(***)
(***) Editor's Note: Looked up who was 1st Team ACC that year: Lamar Jackson. Fair enough
All Americans 2016 Clemson
All-Americans
CB Cordrea Tankersley: 1st Team - USA Today; 2nd Team - Fox Sports; 3rd Team - AP, Athlon
QB Deshaun Watson: 1st Team - Scout.com; 2nd Team - AP, AFCA, Athlon, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, Walter Camp
DT Carlos Watkins: 1st Team - CBS Sports; 2nd Team - AP, Athlon
DE Christian Wilkins: 1st Team - AFCA, FWAA; 2nd Team - Fox Sports, Sporting News, USA Today, Walter Camp; 3rd Team - AP, Athlon
LB Ben Boulware: 2nd Team - AFCA, FWAA, USA Today, Walter Camp; 3rd Team - AP, Athlon
TE Jordan Leggett: 2nd Team - CBS Sports; 3rd Team - Athlon
WR Mike Williams: 2nd Team - Walter Camp; 3rd Team - Athlon
DT Dexter Lawrence: Freshman - FWAA, ESPN, Scout.com, USA Today
So the whole Trevor Lawrence had a great Defense and Watson had markedly less - just seems like more Bias to me
Especially if we are using 2020 as the benchmark (which to bring it back to the Fields context - We basically are.- No one wants to talk about Fields when he lost to Clemson)
Clemson had more defensive talent in 2019 and 2018 than 2020 - but I think that was true in 2016 too - I think 2020 was a pretty average (for their standards) Clemson defense
At the very, very least - I'd say the Defenses were at least not showing a particular advantage for Trevor Lawrence