Excited Delirium Over Fields

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Yogi da Bear
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:12 am I don't prescribe to the Orwellian Thought Crime of subconscious bias.
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Sorry, I just noticed this even though I already quoted it once. I believe the word you're looking for is "subscribe." Prescribe is something your doctor does when he orders medication for you.

For IE on rookie QB Injuries:

Maybe I didn't give a good list of injured QBs for you. A few rookie QBs have been injured, and unfortunately running QBs seem most at risk of it. Let's start with RG3. What the Skins did to him is beyond criminal, and I firmly believe they destroyed his career. Mariota was injured not once, but twice, spraining his MCL on two separate occasions and eventually ending his rookie season early. Josh Allen missed four games with an elbow injury. Deshaun Watson tore his ACL (although admittedly in a non-contact drill in practice--coaches should really be banned from sunflower sees on the sidelines lol). Matt Stafford ended his rookie season early with a knee injury. Blaine Gabbert went through his rookie season with a variety on injuries, including a jammed toe on his plant foot. Even Kyler Murray suffered a hamstring as a rookie.

Perhaps my best sentiments on this are expressed in this quote on Tua Tagovailoa, who while he didn't miss times as a rookie do to a foot injury, had suffered a severe hip injury in his final year in college:
After his third start, the rookie first-rounder has landed on the injury report with a foot problem. He nevertheless fully participated in practice on Wednesday, in advance of Sunday’s game at Denver.

The disclosure means that Tua is receiving treatment for the injury, but that it’s not keeping him from performing.

Tua’s history of injuries at the college level became a major concern prior to the draft. After Sunday’s win over the Chargers, I asked him about taking hits at the NFL level.

“I’ve taken a good amount already,” he said, “and I think that’s enough for me.”

Tua explained that he knows the hits will happen, but that he’s trying to be smart and slide when necessary.

There’s no reason to think the foot injury will keep Tua from playing on Sunday. However, it’s a reminder that contact will potentially lead to more injuries. Ideally, all mobile quarterbacks will find a way to use their legs and their brains to avoid taking hits.
That's what I want to be damn certain that Fields learns before he starts. That and fucking eliminating his spin move. Some people think that you can just tell a guy this, but a guy like Fields, who obviously hates going down like he does, needs to be taught it. Otherwise, we run the risk of another Jim McMahon experience.
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dplank
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:31 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:12 am I don't prescribe to the Orwellian Thought Crime of subconscious bias.
Image

Sorry, I just noticed this even though I already quoted it once. I believe the word you're looking for is "subscribe." Prescribe is something your doctor does when he orders medication for you.

For IE on rookie QB Injuries:

Maybe I didn't give a good list of injured QBs for you. A few rookie QBs have been injured, and unfortunately running QBs seem most at risk of it. Let's start with RG3. What the Skins did to him is beyond criminal, and I firmly believe they destroyed his career. Mariota was injured not once, but twice, spraining his MCL on two separate occasions and eventually ending his rookie season early. Josh Allen missed four games with an elbow injury. Deshaun Watson tore his ACL (although admittedly in a non-contact drill in practice--coaches should really be banned from sunflower sees on the sidelines lol). Matt Stafford ended his rookie season early with a knee injury. Blaine Gabbert went through his rookie season with a variety on injuries, including a jammed toe on his plant foot. Even Kyler Murray suffered a hamstring as a rookie.

Perhaps my best sentiments on this are expressed in this quote on Tua Tagovailoa, who while he didn't miss times as a rookie do to a foot injury, had suffered a severe hip injury in his final year in college:
After his third start, the rookie first-rounder has landed on the injury report with a foot problem. He nevertheless fully participated in practice on Wednesday, in advance of Sunday’s game at Denver.

The disclosure means that Tua is receiving treatment for the injury, but that it’s not keeping him from performing.

Tua’s history of injuries at the college level became a major concern prior to the draft. After Sunday’s win over the Chargers, I asked him about taking hits at the NFL level.

“I’ve taken a good amount already,” he said, “and I think that’s enough for me.”

Tua explained that he knows the hits will happen, but that he’s trying to be smart and slide when necessary.

There’s no reason to think the foot injury will keep Tua from playing on Sunday. However, it’s a reminder that contact will potentially lead to more injuries. Ideally, all mobile quarterbacks will find a way to use their legs and their brains to avoid taking hits.
That's what I want to be damn certain that Fields learns before he starts. That and fucking eliminating his spin move. Some people think that you can just tell a guy this, but a guy like Fields, who obviously hates going down like he does, needs to be taught it. Otherwise, we run the risk of another Jim McMahon experience.
Yogi you just haven’t thought that through. It doesn’t take a year to teach someone that they need to get down. That’s, like, a conversation and maybe a few practices. Not a year wasted on the bench lol.

“Hey Justin, you’re in the pros, no unnecessary risks ok? You see guys coming at you, get down”. That’s it, done! Why are you over complicating this? The only other way he will learn is with reps and he needs to play to get them, it doesn’t take many practice reps dude.

You think he has to watch Dalton slide a couple times, from the bench, during a live game to learn this??? There’s nothing to “teach” here, he either takes the verbal instruction or he need live actions reps and needs to play. This is one of your more odd fixations.
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Yogi da Bear
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If you think it's nothing but telling a guy with Fields' to get down for him to get down, I think you're being woefully naïve DP. We tried that with Jim McMahon. It didn't work. Fields struggles for nearly every last yard. That's the way he's built. You don't think that his college coach didn't try to get him to stop that Spin Move he does? I do. That things an injury waiting to happen. As often as he threw it in college, I don't think that any coach talking to him about it was successful. I feel so strongly about this, I think they actually need to practice it in training camp. Even if he's not allowed to be touched, teach him to slide in the open field when defenders are close. Definitely get him to throw the ball away when in the pocket. Remember how upset Nagy got at Trubisky last training camp for that.
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dplank
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:43 pm If you think it's nothing but telling a guy with Fields' to get down for him to get down, I think you're being woefully naïve DP. We tried that with Jim McMahon. It didn't work. Fields struggles for nearly every last yard. That's the way he's built. You don't think that his college coach didn't try to get him to stop that Spin Move he does? I do. That things an injury waiting to happen. As often as he threw it in college, I don't think that any coach talking to him about it was successful. I feel so strongly about this, I think they actually need to practice it in training camp. Even if he's not allowed to be touched, teach him to slide in the open field when defenders are close. Definitely get him to throw the ball away when in the pocket. Remember how upset Nagy got at Trubisky last training camp for that.
I just think that you’re failing to draw a line from this thought to insisting he sit. After you’ve told him, then seen him do it in practice, the next step is he needs to play. Like you said, McMahon never learned, you can’t sit Fields forever and there’s only 1 way to find out if he really gets it or not in game conditions - that’s by playing him. Watching Dalton from the sidelines doesn’t help at all. Giving QB1 practice reps to Dalton instead of Fields doesn’t help either. You keep arguing your point without explaining why Fields sitting on the bench on Sundays helps solve the problem.

I’m not even sure I want him getting down lik you’re describing, but that’s a whole other conversation. For this one, you need to explain how sitting on the bench week 1 helps him learn this better than he’s already going to learn it in practice, scrimmage, preseason, etc.
“I’m a tough, physical, nasty mf'er. A dude who does not shy away from hits; a dude’s who is going to bust his ass.”~ Teven Jenkins
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*taps billy club against palm*

Just making sure things stay civil.
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dplank
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UOK wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:07 am *taps billy club against palm*

Just making sure things stay civil.
You don’t have to worry about Yogi and I dude, we’re fine. It’s only when people start straw manning and/or lying that things get heated.
“I’m a tough, physical, nasty mf'er. A dude who does not shy away from hits; a dude’s who is going to bust his ass.”~ Teven Jenkins
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dplank wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:41 am
IE wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:09 am

This is exactly right - good explanation. Widespread bias is what put Mitch ahead of the other guys,, and ENABLED the pick even though it was unjustified. It provided rationale and enabled Pace to see what he wanted to see & not question himself. The comparison to Brees was a complete joke. Brees led Purdue to a title over Michigan and Ohio State... and checked all those boxes except for the size one. Actually if you check all the rest the size aspect is less important if you're athletic enough (Brees, Murray, Wilson).

The Bears did pick Vince Evans way back in the day. He just wasn't a good passer. He was also on bad teams for most of his Chicago career (besides handing to Walter). The fact that the Bears drafted Evans way back in the day is not evidence that bias didn't drive the Trubisky selection in the first round 40 years later.
That's right Yogi/IE. But the bias IMO is less about Pace and the Bears as it is from the media that set the initial narrative on guys. We've all heard the term "echo chamber" and we kinda know that sports writers and talking heads spend 90% of their time parroting other people's opinions - but I don't think we realize how much that influences the teams behavior. The narratives get set on a guy early and are damn near impossible to shake. Once scout says something, right or wrong, and then some media outlet picks it up, and then more media outlets pick up what the other media outlet just said, and next thing you know "it's a thing". And these GMs don't like to swim against the current and put their jobs/reputations at risk.

So no, Ryan Pace isn't a flippin racist. The Bears aren't a racist organization. That's just not thinking deeply about the problem here and going 1/4 inch deep. This is a much deeper problem than that. And I think the Watson / Lawrence thing shines a pretty bright light on it. The fact that Watson was dinged hard for playing in Clemson's offense and how that might translate, his level of talent advantage, etc but you never heard any of that for "generational" golden boy is blatant. Fields too, who had just as good a career but quickly got dinged as a "one read QB" even though that's a moronic take now that I've studied him closely. One guy said it one time and it's stuck to him.

Watson ran double(+) the amount of times Lawrence did

Watson literally ran 200+ times as a Sophomore

That is materially different on how they used him and Lawrence right there alone

Plus - as noted (Size, usage, INT (Dplank loves to gloss over that - they don't matter as much because he also ran for a lot of scores?!?!? , numbers dropping some as Junior etc). There were some other Dings there

Averaging 1 INT a game Sophomore and Junior years (In College) - with the Junior year being worse - will absolute be mentioned as a Ding - Why wouldn't it?

Lawrence came in an won a National Title as a True Freshman - he's kind of always been the guy - there are no dings to be had
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vd
Yogi da Bear wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:36 am
IE wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:54 am I think Mariota is a decent/average NFL QB, actually. I think the part he doesn't pass on my list was Pro level college passing performance or ball protection. I think he's a good example of the list and IF he is considered a bust I'll say that's the floor of someone who checks all those boxes. Even missing one box though is disqualifying.
As a Duck fan, I'm obviously biased, but I think that Marcus is far from done. I sure wish we had approached him rather than traded for Foles last offseason. He got a bit shell shocked in Tennessee and went through a wide assortment of injuries there, but he performed fairly well (89.8 QB rating) and led them to three straight 9-7 seasons (out of four) and the playoffs with a playoff victory against the Chiefs. I disagree that he didn't have a Pro Level College Passing Performance. He did. He also protected the ball well with only 14 ints in 3 years. What he does struggle with though are fumbles. Has throughout college and the pros. I think when he's given a chance again, he'll shine. He did last year in his one solo performance.

Which is why when he was replaced the team instantly got better - He didn't find a team that wanted him to be a Starter in the offseason (he got a nice contract for a Backup!) - And then had to take a pretty massive pay cut the very next year

Shell shocked is Derek Henry as your HB - Wish Tennessee would have put weapons around him like they did - checks notes - Ryan Tannenhill? (Oh- he was replaced in season - Whoops)

You know - Pro Bowl stuff!!!

His last 2 Full Seasons before getting pulled in season (in part because he wasn't hitting the broadside of a barn that year - and his replacement started winning
immediately )


13 TD- 15 INT

11TD- 8 INT
RichH55
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I actually have no issue if someone wants to say on a Mariotta or a Winston - Hey, it's not fully over yet (I'd bet more on Winston there than Mariotta though) - But fair enough

But to suggest that Mariotta was anything other than a disappointment in his career SO FAR - is at best being disingenuous - The data is in on that.

No two ways about it

As bad as Mitch was here - he NEVER had a year where he threw more INT than TD - Never
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dplank wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:27 am
Yogi da Bear wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:43 pm If you think it's nothing but telling a guy with Fields' to get down for him to get down, I think you're being woefully naïve DP. We tried that with Jim McMahon. It didn't work. Fields struggles for nearly every last yard. That's the way he's built. You don't think that his college coach didn't try to get him to stop that Spin Move he does? I do. That things an injury waiting to happen. As often as he threw it in college, I don't think that any coach talking to him about it was successful. I feel so strongly about this, I think they actually need to practice it in training camp. Even if he's not allowed to be touched, teach him to slide in the open field when defenders are close. Definitely get him to throw the ball away when in the pocket. Remember how upset Nagy got at Trubisky last training camp for that.
I just think that you’re failing to draw a line from this thought to insisting he sit. After you’ve told him, then seen him do it in practice, the next step is he needs to play. Like you said, McMahon never learned, you can’t sit Fields forever and there’s only 1 way to find out if he really gets it or not in game conditions - that’s by playing him. Watching Dalton from the sidelines doesn’t help at all. Giving QB1 practice reps to Dalton instead of Fields doesn’t help either. You keep arguing your point without explaining why Fields sitting on the bench on Sundays helps solve the problem.

I’m not even sure I want him getting down lik you’re describing, but that’s a whole other conversation. For this one, you need to explain how sitting on the bench week 1 helps him learn this better than he’s already going to learn it in practice, scrimmage, preseason, etc.
I think that standing on the sideline absolutely gives you more of an idea of the speed and violence of the NFL than you otherwise normally have. Hell, just being in the stands close to the field at a game gives you much more of an idea. You also get an more of an idea of the processing that takes place between plays (as I believe he'll be plugged into the QB/Coach communication), so he doesn't have to think so much about that. Finally, we're playing Aaron Donald and that Ram defense in Primetime at their place. I certainly don't want to throw him into that mess. It's just asking for trouble.

For the life of me, I have no clue why you would want to throw our rookie QB out there in the very first game against the number one defense in the league with the second most sacks in the league at their place, in prime time. And with us having a fledgling OL where we're replacing three spot who weren't there opening day of last year. I don't see how you could NOT have a problem with that. I don't get why you're so impatient with our rookie? Why do you want to just throw him out there? Why not give him a few plays here and there, a series over time, isolated plays that he's very well practiced in, and allow the coaches to dissect those with him first, before throwing him in against the number one defense in the league with a complete NFL game plan he has to work through.

To me, that's just nuts.
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I don’t want to put him in if he’s not ready, but if he is then I see no reason not to. You seem to want to sit him whether he’s ready or not, I disagree. You act like he’s some toddler or something, he’s been playing high level ball for a while now - this won’t be too big for him.

While I’m at it...I disagree with trying to neuter him as a runner as well. No I don’t want him throwing the ball away at the first sign of trouble and no I don’t want him sliding instead of making guys miss in the open field for big plays! We got a ball player, let him play! Imagine telling Mahomes “Just throw it away” or Lamar Jackson to just slide down. Too conservative man, let him play his game and be special. I feel we ruined Mitch over coaching him, let’s not ruin Fields the same way.

#FreeSoldierFields
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dplank wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:40 pm I don’t want to put him in if he’s not ready, but if he is then I see no reason not to. You seem to want to sit him whether he’s ready or not, I disagree. You act like he’s some toddler or something, he’s been playing high level ball for a while now - this won’t be too big for him.

While I’m at it...I disagree with trying to neuter him as a runner as well. No I don’t want him throwing the ball away at the first sign of trouble and no I don’t want him sliding instead of making guys miss in the open field for big plays! We got a ball player, let him play! Imagine telling Mahomes “Just throw it away” or Lamar Jackson to just slide down. Too conservative man, let him play his game and be special. I feel we ruined Mitch over coaching him, let’s not ruin Fields the same way.

#FreeSoldierFields
This is a bad post

Slide - yes - it's tough to be special with a torn ACL
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It's just nonsense to project a higher risk of torn ACL to Fields if he plays. "Murray got a hammy"? lol For every QB listed there are many more that had no major injuries (and even some of the ones listed are just normal things that happen to all QBs). It's football!

Jim McMahon was (and still is) and idiot. IF Justin Fields is an idiot, he may not ever adjust his play to protect himself better. But that will have absolutely zero to do with when he starts playing regularly. "Some guys never learn" is a bad argument to advocate sitting to learn. IF we think JF1 is a smart kid and a quick study (as advertised), we should all believe he'll quickly adapt and see what he can do & what he can't at this level. Watching Andy Dalton get sacked or scrambling or checking down or getting rid of the ball isn't going to help him learn anything. There is zero way the kid isn't going to watch that and think "I could have made a play". So let him figure out what he can & can't do himself.

Fields isn't a runner like Jackson or Allen. He's more of a runner like Mahomes where he'll take it if you give it - but he wants to throw the ball & his default is to throw it. There is no special risk of him getting an ACL from running - no more than any other QB of any age. Don't quote made up stats. Show a statistical likelihood that younger QBs suffer more serious injury, or admit it is just fear and emotion driving opinions - not math.
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IE wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:05 am It's just nonsense to project a higher risk of torn ACL to Fields if he plays. "Murray got a hammy"? lol For every QB listed there are many more that had no major injuries (and even some of the ones listed are just normal things that happen to all QBs). It's football!

Jim McMahon was (and still is) and idiot. IF Justin Fields is an idiot, he may not ever adjust his play to protect himself better. But that will have absolutely zero to do with when he starts playing regularly. "Some guys never learn" is a bad argument to advocate sitting to learn. IF we think JF1 is a smart kid and a quick study (as advertised), we should all believe he'll quickly adapt and see what he can do & what he can't at this level. Watching Andy Dalton get sacked or scrambling or checking down or getting rid of the ball isn't going to help him learn anything. There is zero way the kid isn't going to watch that and think "I could have made a play". So let him figure out what he can & can't do himself.

Fields isn't a runner like Jackson or Allen. He's more of a runner like Mahomes where he'll take it if you give it - but he wants to throw the ball & his default is to throw it. There is no special risk of him getting an ACL from running - no more than any other QB of any age. Don't quote made up stats. Show a statistical likelihood that younger QBs suffer more serious injury, or admit it is just fear and emotion driving opinions - not math.
100% man. Bears fans just don't know what to do with a guy like Fields, we've never had a playmaker like this at QB. So of course the first thing we want to do is neuter him and take away his natural play making ability! Huh? I can see it now, Andy Reid pulls Patrick Mahomes aside and says, "Hey Patrick, no more of this free lancing stuff I'm worried you might get hurt or damage your fragile psyche, just throw the ball away". And BOOM, Mahomes ain't Mahomes anymore. There are times when he needs to slide or throw the ball away, and there are times when he should make a play. If he's got nowhere to go, or a bigger guy like a LB is bearing down on him, then of course he needs to slide. But if he's in the open field? Make a move and use that speed for a big play! Don't just turtle up, if that's what you want then you might as well have drafted Mac Jones. And guess what, the only way he learns what he can and can't get away with is by PLAYING.

You are spot on that he'll get no value watching Dalton out there - like as close to none as possible. He needs to learn by doing, just like every other human in every other aspect of life. You can't protect him by stashing him on the sidelines or trying to coach all the good stuff out of him, all you'll end up doing is having a nice, safe, healthy, SHITTY QB. Which is exactly what Bears fans know.

I'm not gonna freak out if he sits a few weeks, I base my opinion on his readiness not some internal belief that he must do this or must do that. If he's struggling to pick up the system or the game seems to fast for him in practice/preseason, fine, sit him a few weeks until he's ready. But if he's outplaying Dalton in practice, play the kid and for fucks sake keep Nagy from overcoaching him like he did Mitch.

Last thing: has anyone considered how the NFL protects the QB's these days in their thinking? I mean, if you fart on a QB they throw a flag now. They do everything they can to reduce hitting now, not just for QB's but "defenseless receivers" too. Basically, any time there's a big hit, the flag comes out. Now, as Bears fans, we're used to getting screwed by this because we're always a "defense first" team. But the game is designed for offense, not defense, so not only will Fields be protected by the refs, we'll start benefitting from the "new NFL rules" like other teams have for so long.

Statistically it's not even more dangerous to run: https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new- ... ured-most/
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:20 am
Statistically it's not even more dangerous to run: https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new- ... ured-most/
That's interesting.
But they do get sloppy with their wording and you have to look closely.
NFL quarterbacks that run most are not injured most. NFL quarterbacks that run the least are injured the least. Middle-of-the road running quarterbacks are injured most frequently.
Running very little is safer.
Future Study

Some questions remain unanswered by this study, leaving room for exciting new research projects:

Now that we know that Run Frequency is not a reliable predictor of QB injuries, the quest for a more reliable predictor continues. A future study could explore which types of quarterbacks expose themselves to the most risk by participating in the most dangerous types of plays.
While Run Frequency isn’t a reliable predictor of how many games a quarterback will miss due to injury, Run Frequency has not been ruled out as a reliable predictor for career longevity. It could be argued that while Lamar Vick quarterbacks may not miss more games due to injury than the rest of the league, the types of injuries they sustain could take a bigger toll on their bodies over time, forcing them to retire earlier than other NFL quarterbacks. That argument has been neither proved nor disproved by this study. The relationship between Run Frequency and Career Longevity is a logical next step of exploration.
They didn't sort out career longevity or account for what types of runs (Understandably an overwhelming task for a hobbyist, but also very important. Dropping back, seeing a huge hole in the rush, running untouched into the center of the field which you had a great view of all along, and sliding before a tackler can get within 5 yds just isn't similar to seeing the rush coming from your front side and spinning blindly to your blind side to flee pressure.) each was.
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Yea I get it, it's imperfect. But one can't simply claim it's irresponsible to let a guy run which is what folks have been doing, the data doesn't bear that out. Plus, if that's what you want, you don't draft a guy like Fields to begin with. This urge to coach the "special" out of this kid really bothers me, we drafted him for a reason LET HIM PLAY HIS GAME.
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IMO...

* It's a misnomer to say that Nagy "ruined" Trubisky by "overcoaching" him. Nagy DID, in 2019, assume that Mitch was ready to take another step - he clearly wasn't and may never be ready - but Mitch flopped because he's severely limited and his athleticism isn't at the level of a Lamar Jackson and he can't throw the ball like Josh Allen.

As for Fields running, it's part of his game - it's why he can put more stress on a defense than a pure pocket passer. He likely will be on the move more early in his career - no matter how smart he is, and even if all of the anecdotes we heard about his "processing speed" are false, as a young QB, he's going to get fooled/confused by NFL defenses. When they happens - he needs to leverage his legs to improvise - to either make room in the pocket for an off-schedule throw OR to run for a 1st down (and more). He just needs to be smart about when and how he runs.

As for the value of him sitting behind Dalton, early in the season anyway, I believe the issue is moot. Dalton is starting the opener.
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A few things -

1) Yes - the more he runs- the more likely an injury is - Not scrambling, not freelancing but running and taking hits Absolutely leads to the chance of more injury

Give me the R. Wilson nice gain and a slide where he only gets 30 Yards v. juking and taking a big shot for 38

(and the stats seemed to show - Contact is key to getting injured)

There's also this:" One last note on injuries and dangerous plays. The Lamar Vick group, whose Run Frequency is higher than any quarterback group, takes more sacks than any other group, as can be seen in the NFL QB Sack Rate chart rate below."

I also think this: This goes toward Games missed. Dinged up, nagging type things you can play through are not mentioned



2) The flag thing is truer for statutes (and guys with SB who get extra benefit of the doubt sadly)- They seem to give "Running" QB less in that department IMHO
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Moriarty wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:13 am
dplank wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:20 am
Statistically it's not even more dangerous to run: https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new- ... ured-most/
That's interesting.
But they do get sloppy with their wording and you have to look closely.
NFL quarterbacks that run most are not injured most. NFL quarterbacks that run the least are injured the least. Middle-of-the road running quarterbacks are injured most frequently.
Running very little is safer.
Future Study

Some questions remain unanswered by this study, leaving room for exciting new research projects:

Now that we know that Run Frequency is not a reliable predictor of QB injuries, the quest for a more reliable predictor continues. A future study could explore which types of quarterbacks expose themselves to the most risk by participating in the most dangerous types of plays.
While Run Frequency isn’t a reliable predictor of how many games a quarterback will miss due to injury, Run Frequency has not been ruled out as a reliable predictor for career longevity. It could be argued that while Lamar Vick quarterbacks may not miss more games due to injury than the rest of the league, the types of injuries they sustain could take a bigger toll on their bodies over time, forcing them to retire earlier than other NFL quarterbacks. That argument has been neither proved nor disproved by this study. The relationship between Run Frequency and Career Longevity is a logical next step of exploration.
They didn't sort out career longevity or account for what types of runs (Understandably an overwhelming task for a hobbyist, but also very important. Dropping back, seeing a huge hole in the rush, running untouched into the center of the field which you had a great view of all along, and sliding before a tackler can get within 5 yds just isn't similar to seeing the rush coming from your front side and spinning blindly to your blind side to flee pressure.) each was.
Good post

I thought it was an interesting study too - Thanks for posting it Dplank
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:35 am Yea I get it, it's imperfect. But one can't simply claim it's irresponsible to let a guy run which is what folks have been doing, the data doesn't bear that out. Plus, if that's what you want, you don't draft a guy like Fields to begin with. This urge to coach the "special" out of this kid really bothers me, we drafted him for a reason LET HIM PLAY HIS GAME.
I do think it hurts career longevity / hurts effectiveness earlier

Cam Newton seems more dinged up in his early 30s than Tom Brady does in his 40s
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Do you think it is safe to have that planning meeting without a pre-meeting? Let's schedule a pre-meeting and then you and I can connect off-line to talk about the pre-meeting to make sure we're on the same page. Then we can have the pre-meeting and get set for the planning meeting.

- or, alternatively -

Did you ever know those old people who would buy a couch and then use plastic covers on it because they were afraid of everything that could happen to ruin it?

- caveat -

I got my wife pregnant on our wedding night ... because "what can happen, really, with taking a chance this one time?"
Ryan Pace for Mayor.
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I feel like folks are arguing to extreme cases here. No, I don't want Fields lowering his shoulder to gain an extra couple yards on a run - that's foolish risk/reward. I also don't want Fields being neutered as a play maker and being asked to slide PREMATURELY or throw the ball away at the first sign of trouble. On these logical ends of each spectrum, we probably all agree.

But my issue is with over coaching him. We drafted a natural playmaker, let him make plays! You want to discourage stupid risk taking and all, but you gotta let the kid learn and be his own man out there. Every great QB is his own man, not reliant on a coach trying to play the game FOR him, like Nagy seemed to do with Mitch. Art, we disagree on this point. Mitch has some issues, we agree his skills don't measure up to be a good pro, but I also think Nagy fucked him up royally. 2018 Mitch was better than 2019 Mitch. 2018 Mitch wasn't great or anything, the signs of failure were evident, but there's no mistaking that he regressed as a player and I firmly believe that's because Nagy tried to turn him into a player that he wasn't ever supposed to be. This can't happen with Fields, Nagy needs to run a scheme that accentuates Fields abilities and not try to turn Fields into a completely different player.

The great QBs run the offense autonomously out there and have a heavy hand in the game plans, play calls, and certainly adjustments/reads - even personnel sometimes. I want Fields to be one of THOSE guys, a Top 5 guy, not some athlete that needs to be coached up every 2 seconds. Players play, not coaches.
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DP, you seem to keep moving the goal posts on me. First, it's start him opening day. Then it's start him when he's ready. This has been my stance all along. Finally, it's start him if he's better in practice than Dalton.

I can guarantee you three things:

First, if you ask a rookie QB starting on opening day if they're before the game, they'll all unequivocally say, ""yes, absolutely."

Second, if you ask that same QB a year later if they were ready on that opening day, they'll most probably say, "absolutely not."

Finally, being better than another QB in practice does NOT at all mean that he's ready to start an actual game.

There are just too much that separates practice, even preseason games, from actual NFL games. In practice, QBs aren't allowed to be hit. In practice, you're focusing on learning specific plays or a specific series of plays. Even in preseason games, you're limiting your play selection to the more generic ones. None of that has absolutely anything to do with installing an actual regular season game plan and having command over the entire playbook. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I think that Fields is most probably better than Dalton RIGHT NOW in practice. But that's a far cry from having command of the playbook.

You're article on QB injuries is really interesting, but it's also terribly skewed from somebody like Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson who haven't really been injured. As Moriarity mentioned, look at the longevity of the careers of the QBs who ran little, while look at all those who run at a lot and the career changing injuries they've suffered: RG3, Alex Smith, and Cam Newton. Look at all the season ending injuries from that running group: Bridgewater, Mariota (multiple times), Garoppolo, Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith.

But really that's not my point, as I'm really NOT trying to neuter Fields. I'm trying to get him to run SMART. In going through every throw and run of his in college, I also saw a handful of times that he went out of bounds or slid. Mostly, he's trying to get extra yards, sometimes very foolishly. And he does that awful spin move quite often. He has to do better. Play smarter.

Some of you think that he'll learn absolutely nothing standing on the sidelines. I completely disagree, and those QBs who did that, agree with me. Here's what Mahomes has said:
"I would have just been trying to make plays,” Mahomes told PFT by phone after Sunday’s 42-37 win over the Steelers, “and I wouldn’t have had the same confidence I have now.”
Just going out and trying to make plays is EXACTLY what I worry about with Fields. That's how a rookie can get hurt, particularly one with the attitude of Fields in trying to get the absolute most out of every single play and refusing to go down.
Instead, Mahomes learned while not playing. He learned how to prepare. He learned how to read coverages. He learned how to execute the Chiefs offense the way coach Andy Reid wants it to be executed. As a result, Mahomes was ready for games like the one he played today, in a stadium that he said was the loudest he’d ever experienced as a player.
This is something else I want to see. I don't want him out there starting if he doesn't completely have the play book down. If he has to go out there with a play list on his sleeve, he shouldn't be out there. I can't even imagine starting him opening night in that Los Angeles environment against that Ram defense with a fucking playlist he has to check on his sleeve. That's the height of stupidity right there.

Something else that hasn't been spoken about as near as I can tell is how much a rookie QB can learn from running the scout team, as Mahomes attests:
Playing the scout-team quarterback in practice really helped develop my game. When we were playing the Jets, with Josh McCown, I'd have to throw a lot of deep balls. Tyrod Taylor with the Bills, you'd have to scramble around a lot. With Tom Brady, it was about dissecting the defense. You go through other offenses, and you make them into your own, and try to make it relate to your offense. I had to do stuff I wasn’t comfortable with, and see what I liked and what I didn’t like.
Nagy is apparently talking to Daly and Fields about what Fields like in college and trying to incorporate that. This scout team experience might even increase Field's exposure to other plays he might like in other offenses he's had to run. It can only increase the size of the playbook but also increase Fields' comfort zone. Sure wish Nagy had this experience with Trubs before straight jacketing him into his offense.

Finally, apparently the rookie wall is real. Here's what Sam Darnold says about that:
The turning point in Sam Darnold's first professional season started with a foot injury he suffered in the Jets' 13-6 loss to the Dolphins in Miami on Nov. 4. Even though the competitor in him didn't know it at the time, he needed to step away from the field.

"The break definitely helped me get a little more juice and a little more energy because that rookie wall is real," Darnold said this spring. "Don't get me wrong — I'm the last person to make an excuse, but it's a long year for us: going through the draft, combine, all those things that go along with the process, pro day, getting ready for so many different things."

The No. 3 overall selection in the 2018 Draft would sit for more than a month as his foot healed. Grizzled veteran Josh McCown, Darnold's backup last season and trusted confidant, led the Green & White for a three-game stretch. While the Jets wouldn't taste victory in any of McCown's starts, they ultimately won because Darnold took a step forward despite never getting a rep.

"He was able to sit in the classroom with me and teach me how to do things," Darnold said of the well-traveled McCown. "But I think more than anything, while I was hurt, watching him play those few games just really helped out there and taught me how to play fast. I think I kind of carried that on the last few games of the season where I thought I played my best football."
And that's what I'm talking about--the ability to play fast and smart. Only then will he be ready.

In the meantime, I think that we should give him a couple of plays to start with, ones that he's practiced enough to have completely down. I see nothing wrong with letting him go in as weapon for those couple of plays and then letting them evaluate them afterwards. Give him a taste. I wouldn't even be against doing that opening night. Then you progress to giving him a series that he's well versed in, and diagnose that. THEN when he has things down, you turn him loose. But not before then.
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I'm so hyped to watch this kid play.
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re: Mitch and Nagy f-ing him up. I think Nagy f-ed up the Bears chances by thinking Mitch was progressing. As for f-ing Mitch up, he actually became increasingly ineffective after his injury in 2018 against the Vikings. The offense was anemic when he returned....all the way through the playoffs...in large part due to his uneven play. Unlike a Mahomes, Mitch doesn't have natural playmaking instincts...when he's confused, rather than get out of harm's way and reset himself (the way we see Mahomes do all the time), Mitch freezes. the only way you can win with Mitch - and only against teams with average at best defenses - is to be a run heavy attack that uses a ton of play action and generally cuts the field in half. Good defenses will stymie this as we saw when Mitch was re-inserted in the lineup a year ago.

As for Fields, he was apparently Nagy's guy from the beginning. Nagy has struggled to find his footing as a play caller, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who would covet a player he plans on completely changing - I'm guessing he believes that, over time, Fields can bring out the best in his offense.
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I’m not moving the goal posts Yogi, I’m trying to make my position clear to you. I think we define “ready” differently.

I have evolved my thinking on Fields, but not since we started this particular debate.
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PFF Data Study: Justin Fields was the most accurate quarterback in the PFF College era

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chicago-be ... ollege-era
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dplank wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:48 pm I’m not moving the goal posts Yogi, I’m trying to make my position clear to you. I think we define “ready” differently.

I have evolved my thinking on Fields, but not since we started this particular debate.
So to clarify, should we start Fields when he's actually ready? Does him performing better than Dalton in training camp make/prove him ready? Or should we simply start him opening day? Because I'm confused.

And what exactly are looking for to determine whether or not Fields is ready?
AZ_Bearfan wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:18 pm
PFF Data Study: Justin Fields was the most accurate quarterback in the PFF College era

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chicago-be ... ollege-era
And yet some will simply proclaim that Mac Jones is the more accurate QB between the two, as if there is not even a question in the matter.
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So all PFF data should be taken as gospel Yogi?

Just curious

Though Any time a number says that Mitch Trubisky was 2 times as Accurate as Patrick Maholmes - Why wouldn't you take that with a grain of salt??!

Do you guys do any critical analysis on these just curious?

I don't even mind this stat - that much -though a ton of salt - BUT it's not a one to one conversion for Passer Accuracy either.

I would ALSO take this stat with a grain of salt - but Mac Jones had a 77% completion percentage last season

Not on throws of 1-5 yards - Total.

You have seen him shirtless - He didn't go Top 15 because teams are selling jeans


I also love the idea that Ohio State played "The gauntlet" v. Alabama's BS Georgia type schedule

Mac Jones played 13 games - The lowest (LOWEST) completion percentage he had in ANY game was 66% - He completed 80% (!) against tOSU in the National Title game throwing 45 Times


Justin Fields - 44% v. Indiana. If your Justin Fields boner lasts more than 4 hours - please either consult a Doctor or watch the Indiana tape
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