Question: Why so many teams passed

[karhu]

Eh, I wrote a big thing about public policy, but this might not be the place for it.

[IE]

Does this sum up the story on why so many teams passed?

Lawrence - White and default QB1.
Wilson - Lily white late riser.
Lance - Half white Minnesota late riser... probably says "eh?" after every sentence like a good northlander. Calls friends "hoser" not "bruh".
Fields - Not white previous default QB1.5 but then faller... ignore all the obvious success and traits...doesn't say much and the default assumption about it is "he dumb, or don't care, or both". Use "Ohio State QB" as a lame excuse.
Jones - White doughboy (lol) drafted after fields but still was a riser and many credibly thought the Bears would select him over fields, because....

[Yogi da Bear]

Does this sum up the story on why so many teams passed?

Lawrence - White and default QB1.
Wilson - Lily white late riser.
Lance - Half white Minnesota late riser... probably says "eh?" after every sentence like a good northlander. Calls friends "hoser" not "bruh".
Fields - Not white previous default QB1.5 but then faller... ignore all the obvious success and traits...doesn't say much and the default assumption about it is "he dumb, or don't care, or both". Use "Ohio State QB" as a lame excuse.
Jones - White doughboy (lol) drafted after fields but still was a riser and many credibly thought the Bears would select him over fields, because....

From a Board Poster:

Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions are all going to favor Jones

Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

[IE]

One more comment on risers, fallers and busts. We ALL know the odds of a first round QB bust are somewhere in the ballpark of 40-50%. Maybe a bit less but that's not the point.

The point I want to make is "these things are not all equal".... like it is flipping coins. Part of the reason the miss rate is so high is guys start rising based on things other than "what he has demonstrated on the field against top competition for an adequate amount of time".

Guys rise based on their ability to throw a ball 75 yards on their knees, or performance against questionable competition, or for "intangibles" or "measurables that are used to make outsized projections" (e.g. Trubisky ,and maybe Lance?). And some guys bust because they simply go to really bad situations/teams and never develop (or regress like Darnold). And then there's the race thing...it's there, and it's obvious.

What are the unique aspects of Fields' career that should be red flags for a bust? I see... none. *Could* he bust? Sure! Is he 40-50% likely to bust? No effing way.

[IE]

Mac Jones delivered against top competition, similar to Fields but maybe not contributing as much as Fields to the success. There are some considerations about how long he did it and his surrounding cast (e.g. is he Matt Leinert redux). But I think he rose up for a reason, and his highly unlikely to bust especially going to NE. I lol'd the doughboy thing was a joke just to show the contrast.

[Yogi da Bear]

A joke? Picture of Mac Jones:

[thunderspirit]

Eh, I wrote a big thing about public policy, but this might not be the place for it.

Respect for the mod rules. That's why I didn't post mine either.

[Atkins&Rebel]

What are the unique aspects of Fields' career that should be red flags for a bust? I see... none. *Could* he bust? Sure! Is he 40-50% likely to bust? No effing way.

Getting selected by the Bears?

[IE]

What are the unique aspects of Fields' career that should be red flags for a bust? I see... none. *Could* he bust? Sure! Is he 40-50% likely to bust? No effing way.

Getting selected by the Bears?

ROFL no kidding! I retract! hehe

[Rusty Trombagent]

What are the unique aspects of Fields' career that should be red flags for a bust? I see... none. *Could* he bust? Sure! Is he 40-50% likely to bust? No effing way.

Getting selected by the Bears?

perfect post. should lock this thread and let it end on a note we can all agree on.

[The Marshall Plan]

What are the unique aspects of Fields' career that should be red flags for a bust? I see... none. *Could* he bust? Sure! Is he 40-50% likely to bust? No effing way.

Getting selected by the Bears?

[RichH55]

Does this sum up the story on why so many teams passed?

Lawrence - White and default QB1.
Wilson - Lily white late riser.
Lance - Half white Minnesota late riser... probably says "eh?" after every sentence like a good northlander. Calls friends "hoser" not "bruh".
Fields - Not white previous default QB1.5 but then faller... ignore all the obvious success and traits...doesn't say much and the default assumption about it is "he dumb, or don't care, or both". Use "Ohio State QB" as a lame excuse.
Jones - White doughboy (lol) drafted after fields but still was a riser and many credibly thought the Bears would select him over fields, because....

From a Board Poster:

Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions are all going to favor Jones

Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

Yeah - that is Mac's game - He is a better athlete than people think but that is only because people think he's the Doughboy and a statute - It's relative

And yes Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions (reading the defense pre-snap and how fast he gets through them) all Absolutely favor Mac Jones

If they didn't they he wouldn't have sniffed being picked high

His arm is fine and he's "fine" athletically too - Certainly not Plus on either level for the NFL.

You do get there was SOME reason he was picked top 20 right?

[RichH55]

Me: "There are inherent racial bias' baked into the NFL that can cause a player like Justin Fields to drop."

You: "THATS INSANE BLACK PLAYERS HAVE BEEN TAKEN HIGH BEFORE WE HAD A BLACK PRESIDENT FOR PETES SAKE RACISM IS DEAD"

The NFL: Black Men Have Lower Cognitive Skills Than White Men.

https://www.newsweek.com/black-men-have ... ts-1591752

That is a "wow" legal take - and not in a good way

[Moriarty]

Here's something on the subject:

https://walterfootball.com/ws2021jfields.php

It claims Aaron Rodgers actually gave the Bears a big assist.

[IE]

Not a fan of that article in many ways. I think they're rationalizing the fall instead of explaining it.

I find it infuriating that they're trying to "explain" the fall but then weasel-word their own narrative to support & justify it. "Uneven" performances, they say. Really? He did win those games, you know. So if all his wins aren't spectacular flawless individual performances then that is considered "uneven"? That means Mahomes is "uneven"...or Brady, who lost to the Bears... ROFL. And Zack Wilson's loss to COASTAL CAROLINA isn't "uneven"? Or Lance's bad one-game performance in 2020?

What is "uneven" here is the analysis.

They seem to grudgingly have to admit Fields "played well" in what was actually an EPIC performance for the ages on the highest stage in beating QB1 and his Tigers on new years day. Gee whiz- thanks for recognizing that was an OK performance and also giving Fields credit for being "respectable" against Alabama's all-NFL team. Could they be less effusive in describing his performance in his college career? I don't think they could.

Fields turned in a number of uneven performances across Ohio State's limited 2020 schedule. He dominated Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers, but he struggled against Indiana and Northwestern. Fields then played well in the college football playoffs, leading Ohio State to victory over Clemson and he putting together a respectable outing versus Alabama.

I also find it weird that to explain the fall they simply repeat what we already know.

Everyone knows the Niners preferred Lance... we just want to know WHY because it doesn't make sense. There is literally nothing Lance can do that Fields can't do better. And Lance has hardly played! I LIKE Lance... but over Fields!? At least he has a chance to develop (and needs to)... but what a waste of all that draft capital if he sits for even a year.

Even Wilson doesn't even make sense, really. He clearly has talent and put on a show last year. But he played nobody and won nothing. The pass that he threw at his pro day that everyone loved so much? Fields did the exact same thing in his pro day. AND in games, against really good teams. The reason Fields doesn't get credit for his off-platform throws is he's so athletic it is assumed he can rip the ball anywhere he wants anytime he wants... so it isn't special? WhereTF is the perspective? Wilson could easily shrink in the face of top NFL competition, while Fields has already literally played NFL-level players in large numbers & competed. Wilson could struggle in the NFL for a while. He's my #1 candidate to bust out of the first round QBs.

We want to know WHY the Panthers made their bad bet on Darnold. The Jets are a disaster (see Wilson comment above) that should take a while to fix. But Darnold was pretty bad and it seems pretty sketch to put all your eggs in that basket unless you're eyeing a '22 QB pick.

OK the Falcons we get - they want to give Matty a big weapon to try to win one especially with Drew retiring and Darnold in Carolina and Brady aging (at some point hopefully soon). Did Ryan threaten them or force the Pitts pick?

And the Lions can justify wanting to give Goff another opportunity because he's played well in the past and they loaded up on Oline and run game to see if he can again. But they could also have easily justified hedging in that area, and Lions fans are livid they passed on Fields (or at top WR) to pick the OT when they already have a good young line.

NFL sources said Fields' slide stemmed from team-specific reasons. The first three drafters, the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers, simply preferred other quarterback prospects. The Falcons, meanwhile, were not sold on Fields and decided against having him sit behind Matt Ryan as the quarterback in waiting. The next two teams, the Bengals and the Dolphins, did not need quarterbacks, while the two teams after them, the Lions and the Panthers had already committed to giving veteran quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Sam Darnold respectively, fresh starts with their clubs.

This article really doesn't give much real explanation or insight into the real questions at all beyond Denver's hopeful pass. Probably because they can't come out and say the truth even though it is obvious to even the most casual (and objective) observer.

[IE]

Did you know that Fields' first 3 offers were from Harvard, Yale and Northwestern?

[wab]

Did you know that Fields' first 3 offers were from Harvard, Yale and Northwestern?

No shit? I did not that know this.

[The Marshall Plan]

Did you know that Fields' first 3 offers were from Harvard, Yale and Northwestern?

Great find. Good to know he's not a meathead.

He still needs facial hair though.

[IE]

Did you know that Fields' first 3 offers were from Harvard, Yale and Northwestern?

No shit? I did not that know this.

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/ ... elds-99343

He had a large number of offers yeah including great academic schools. He went to a really good highschool, had a 3.9 GPA, a 29 ACT (not too shabby) and graduated a semester early.

I know Ivy kids these days all have well over a 4.0 because of AP courses - but a 3.9 is pretty darn good for also being a 2 sport guy and 5 star player. Especially when you consider the reality star limelight attention he was getting even in high school - with a Netflix show and ESPN televising his games in HIGH SCHOOL.

Like he says, he was built for this.

[thunderspirit]

I knew about Northwestern, as Ryan Fitzpatrick had stated that on of the podcasts I heard. Didn't know about the Ivies, tho.

[southdakbearfan]

From a Board Poster:



Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

Yeah - that is Mac's game - He is a better athlete than people think but that is only because people think he's the Doughboy and a statute - It's relative

And yes Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions (reading the defense pre-snap and how fast he gets through them) all Absolutely favor Mac Jones

If they didn't they he wouldn't have sniffed being picked high

His arm is fine and he's "fine" athletically too - Certainly not Plus on either level for the NFL.

You do get there was SOME reason he was picked top 20 right?

It only takes 1 GM to fall in love with a player to make them rise. Remember, Tebow was round 1 QB selection.

Or one story to make them fall especially when you are isolating on one position.

[IE]

It only takes 1 GM to fall in love with a player to make them rise. Remember, Tebow was round 1 QB selection.

Or one story to make them fall especially when you are isolating on one position.

That accounts for the decisions that are made - but not for the chatter and pre-draft narrative & group think.

[Yogi da Bear]

Notice that there's absolutely NO evidence given as to pocket presence, accuracy, or progression aside from one fact of where he was picked (which IN FACT four spots lower than Fields). And this despite DIRECT STATISTICAL EVIDENCE to the contrary. I'll just repost these:

Throws Past the First Read:

NUMBERS DON'T LIE. The narrative heading into the draft is already that Justin Fields is the decidedly inferior passer compared to guys like Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, and I've even heard a few people suggest that Fields' numbers are inflated due to easy underneath passes to open receivers.

But the thing is, the numbers say Fields is the best and most accurate downfield passer in the draft, and it's not really all that close.

Highest accurate pass % on throws past the sticks in 2020:

Justin Fields - 68.4%
Zach Wilson - 59.0%
Mac Jones - 58.5%
Trevor Lawrence - 57.6%

Most passing yards on screen passes last season among 2021 Draft QBs:

1st - Trevor Lawrence - 686
2nd - Mac Jones - 591
...
5th - Zach Wilson - 318
...
22nd - Justin Fields - 86

So statistically it seems that Fields goes past his first read far more and with far more accuracy than Jones. He also is far more accurate downfield than Jones. It seems that Jones relied on screen passes to increase his completion percentage and the ability of his first read (those great Alabama receivers) to get open to decrease his processing time. Yes, it appears that NFL's Race Bias at QB is live and well with Rich. I wonder if he's ever touted a black QB before the draft. I can't remember any.

[RichH55]

Yeah - that is Mac's game - He is a better athlete than people think but that is only because people think he's the Doughboy and a statute - It's relative

And yes Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions (reading the defense pre-snap and how fast he gets through them) all Absolutely favor Mac Jones

If they didn't they he wouldn't have sniffed being picked high

His arm is fine and he's "fine" athletically too - Certainly not Plus on either level for the NFL.

You do get there was SOME reason he was picked top 20 right?

It only takes 1 GM to fall in love with a player to make them rise. Remember, Tebow was round 1 QB selection.

Or one story to make them fall especially when you are isolating on one position.

This tends to account for why a player might go higher than expected

With Fields it's the opposite

It only took 12 Teams (*)- Most of whom either needed a QB - or Flat out took a DIFFERENT QB.

(*) You could probably extend this to a couple of extra teams like New England or Minnesota who presumably could have matched our trade offer while offering the better 1st Round pick this year BUT That is a GOOD Degree of speculation so lets leave them out

That is the crux of one of the worries

Also he was uneven against Northwestern and Indiana - and Ohio State just outclasses those squads something fierce folks

[RichH55]

Its not great that people have to throw the term racist around - or imply racism to describe this - it's pretty dumb

(BTW people know that Trey Lance is a minority right?)

If someone was saying after 2018 that they were worried about Mitch because a good chunk of his best plays came with his legs - and that doesn't bode well for sustainability at the Pro level - Absent insane athletic ability or a combo (Think Vick or Cam v. the "pretty good athlete")

Would that be racism?

Or saying something like "Hey this QB had 200+ carries/runs in a College season but only runs a 4.6-4.7 - That isn't sustainable in the Pros". Is that racist?

Somehow preferring Winston to Marriota also means Racist in terms of QB views?

Cool cool

Dumb - but you do you

[Arkansasbear]

Did you know that Fields' first 3 offers were from Harvard, Yale and Northwestern?

Great find. Good to know he's not a meathead.

He still needs facial hair though.

Not as much as Wilson does. He looks 12.

[AZ_Bearfan]

Haha. Wilson makes me want to buy popcorn from him to help his troop save up for scout camp.

[Arkansasbear]

Does this sum up the story on why so many teams passed?

Lawrence - White and default QB1.
Wilson - Lily white late riser.
Lance - Half white Minnesota late riser... probably says "eh?" after every sentence like a good northlander. Calls friends "hoser" not "bruh".
Fields - Not white previous default QB1.5 but then faller... ignore all the obvious success and traits...doesn't say much and the default assumption about it is "he dumb, or don't care, or both". Use "Ohio State QB" as a lame excuse.
Jones - White doughboy (lol) drafted after fields but still was a riser and many credibly thought the Bears would select him over fields, because....

From a Board Poster:

Pocket Presence, Accuracy, and Progressions are all going to favor Jones

Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

Maybe they give him mad props for "pocket presence" because he's a statue that never leaves the pocket and his line was so good they still kept him upright.

Yeah that's called a joke.

[RichH55]

From a Board Poster:



Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

Maybe they give him mad props for "pocket presence" because he's a statue that never leaves the pocket and his line was so good they still kept him upright.

Yeah that's called a joke.

Nice. For what its worth I thought this was "only" a solid Alabama OL (I think Leatherwood is more a Guard...I think the fat guard is not that great an athlete....I thought Landon Dickerson was the best of the bunch but he was also hurt come Playoffs - Though having Davonte and N. Harris certainly, certainly helps mitigate that

He's also a better athlete than people give him credit for - granted thats because they think he's got Robocops 40 time, but still.

Most of what I liked most about Mac Jones came during Senior Bowl practices - where he doesn't get the Alabama talent around him to that degree - its not Rutgers or the Citadel on Defense - and he hasn't had years of practice with the WRs

But it's also that it HAS to be part of his game - When you can't run a 4.3 or can't throw like Josh Allen - then you don't - you get better at the other aspects of the game or you aren't an NFL 1st Rounder or even the Alabama QB (*)

(*) The kid who was backing up Jones is an absolute stud - if Mac would have stumbled at all they would have replaced him during the Playoffs without a second thought

Ark - I know that doesnt make the SEC competitor in you happy to hear - sorry

[RichH55]

From a Board Poster:



Without any evidence whatsoever that that's true, except for the fact that Jones really is a white doughboy, and In fact, despite direct statistical evidence to the contrary.

Maybe they give him mad props for "pocket presence" because he's a statue that never leaves the pocket and his line was so good they still kept him upright.

Yeah that's called a joke.

Nice. For what its worth I thought this was "only" a solid Alabama OL (I think Leatherwood is more a Guard...I think the fat guard is not that great an athlete....I thought Landon Dickerson was the best of the bunch but he was also hurt come Playoffs - Though having Davonte and N. Harris certainly, certainly helps mitigate that

He's also a better athlete than people give him credit for - granted thats because they think he's got Robocops 40 time, but still.

Most of what I liked most about Mac Jones came during Senior Bowl practices - where he doesn't get the Alabama talent around him to that degree - its not Rutgers or the Citadel on Defense - and he hasn't had years of practice with the WRs

But it's also that it HAS to be part of his game - When you can't run a 4.3 or can't throw like Josh Allen - then you don't - you get better at the other aspects of the game or you aren't an NFL 1st Rounder or even the Alabama QB (*)

(*) The kid who was backing up Jones is an absolute stud - if Mac would have stumbled at all they would have replaced him during the Playoffs without a second thought

Ark - I know that doesnt make the SEC competitor in you happy to hear - sorry