Progressions: QB

[RichH55]

People are bringing up % of progressions - the whole Fields had 19% ! Game. Set. Match!!! foolishness

Putting aside those Stats are actually quite hard to show (People who quote then but then hate PFF ratings is interesting - both need a sizeable Grain of Salt) -




I cannot stress this enough: Speed is the key - not number

If player X has 19% going to 2nd/3rd reads (allegedly) and player Y has only 16% (what a difference!!!!)

If Player Y is faster at getting from 1 to 2 to 3 than Player X - That is what matters

And that was one knock that was consistent against Fields - You heard NFL Network and Kiper (in fairness while raving about the Pick) say "He needs to speed up the progressions"

I guess my contention is that - That's one of the hardest things for a QB to get better at in the Pros - Talk all the smack you want about the Lions defense (Seriously, please do - it's fun!) - but they aren't Rutgers either


The main things I look at for a QB (let's assume they have at least "enough" Arm Strength) : Reading the Defense presnap (*), Speed of Progressions, Accuracy, Speed of getting the Ball out (related to 2 of the above), Anticipatory Throws (everything is open in College, not so much in the Pros)



(*) Great Tom Brady story (True or not it's great and illustrates the point): CB winds up falling down and the WR is open for a nice gain - Brady never looks over - does not make that throw.

Why? Well the presnap look was that the whole defense was designed to keep that WR from getting the ball on that play - So Brady never looked over there - he eliminated in presnap.

A guy like Cutler or Jeff George - more who needs to "see it open" before he throws it - almost certainly hits the guy when the CB fell. CBs don't fall that often though



Alot of the work is presnap - and that is super, super, super hard to scout most of the time

[mmmc_35]

Not really arguable on the general point. I think you can improve processing speed. It might not be from from a 5 gbt to a 120 gbt, but it can improve.

I guess I never saw Fields as a slow processor. My complaint was anticipation. They maybe 2 sides of the same coin. I think you can also get better at anticipation. I think schemes and experience have a lot to do with that.

[dplank]

I would argue that none of us here see any of those things. It's hard enough for pro scouts to discern this type of insight into a player, let alone a bunch of random dudes on the internet. I just laugh when I read some of this shit, like people pretending to be scouts or something. We aren't.

All of us are doing the same thing here, we are reading/watching other peoples takes on guys and applying our own personal bias to their insights. I don't care what % progressions he had, it's OSU, most of the time his first read was probably wide open. Are we supposed to ding him for that? Do we think "generational" QB Lawrence didn't mostly throw to open receivers? Why do we ding Fields for playing against Rutgers but not ding Lawrence for playing against the Citidel? It's meaningless. Same goes for any "mechanical" stuff - I call bullshit on anyone who posts "mechanical" stuff other than just parroting what some other writer/scout said. I mean...I can't really tell any difference between any of the top QB's at all just by watching a few games - no one can. Other than some superficial stuff like one guy appears faster or shows a stronger arm - other than that, we have no clue.

So I take my opinion 90% from what draft experts/scouts say and then apply my own personal factoring in which I readily admit is arbitrary. But what I'm looking for is swag on the field against high end competition - I want a guy who is playing at the highest level and is out there like he knows he's the best guy on the field. And then couple that with production in big moments - that sorta cinches the confidence factor for me, some guys raise their level of play in those moments and some fold. Then you want his measurables to pass muster for an NFL body type, you can't fake size/strength/speed. So all this puts him at the top at his age group, and that age group eventually moves into the NFL so I like my chances that he'll remain one of the best (certainly doesn't always work out that way).

[IE]

One progression I'm looking forward to is for the first time in my life having a Chicago Bear QB who can consistently see and hit a downfield WR in stride, along with the athleticism and spatial awareness as a QB to buy himself the time to make and hit that throw more often than not. That's the only progression that matters - from sucky QB to talented QB.

[AZ_Bearfan]

I can't remember the last time a Bears QB hit a WR in stride on a long bomb. All the deep plays the past few years were diving, acrobatics on the WRs part.

[Boris13c]

I can't remember the last time a Bears QB hit a WR in stride on a long bomb. All the deep plays the past few years were diving, acrobatics on the WRs part.

Grossman and Cutler could both do it with some regularity, but then would throw similar passes to the opposition to negate that ... and neither was a long term consistent answer at the position

I think we will all enjoy seeing Fields develop into the type of QB the Bears have never had and also enjoy the winning seasons that are sure to follow ... and I am much more comfortable that my optimism for him and the team is so much more than a wish for it to be so ... he has the tools required ... he has a calm confidence that is reassuring ... all he needs is guidance and reps ... of course it is the guidance part that worries me the most, but I am willing to give Nagy a fresh do-over in the QB development area and hope he is smart enough to be a man of his word and not force Fields in until he is ready

[Wounded Bear]

I would argue that none of us here see any of those things. It's hard enough for pro scouts to discern this type of insight into a player, let alone a bunch of random dudes on the internet. I just laugh when I read some of this shit, like people pretending to be scouts or something. We aren't.

Okay. But just so you know, many “draft experts” and scouts had Mitch Trubisky ranked higher than both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahones while many of of us idiots on the board thought drafting Mitch was a dumb fucking move.

So there’s that. What they’re doing isn’t magic (or Wizard of Oz behind the curtain bullshit) so I believe many of us are quite capable of spotting legit talent.

You know, it’s amazing to me how many players come out of nowhere and gain a bunch of hype to get drafted in the first round (e.g. Mitch Trubisky and Shea McClellin). So color me dubious when it comes to the almighty “draft experts”.

[Wounded Bear]

And by the way, if he doesn’t get better at progressions, then all we have is just a faster version of Jay Cutler.

So let’s hope he can improve on that.

[RichH55]

I would argue that none of us here see any of those things. It's hard enough for pro scouts to discern this type of insight into a player, let alone a bunch of random dudes on the internet. I just laugh when I read some of this shit, like people pretending to be scouts or something. We aren't.

All of us are doing the same thing here, we are reading/watching other peoples takes on guys and applying our own personal bias to their insights. I don't care what % progressions he had, it's OSU, most of the time his first read was probably wide open. Are we supposed to ding him for that? Do we think "generational" QB Lawrence didn't mostly throw to open receivers? Why do we ding Fields for playing against Rutgers but not ding Lawrence for playing against the Citidel? It's meaningless. Same goes for any "mechanical" stuff - I call bullshit on anyone who posts "mechanical" stuff other than just parroting what some other writer/scout said. I mean...I can't really tell any difference between any of the top QB's at all just by watching a few games - no one can. Other than some superficial stuff like one guy appears faster or shows a stronger arm - other than that, we have no clue.

So I take my opinion 90% from what draft experts/scouts say and then apply my own personal factoring in which I readily admit is arbitrary. But what I'm looking for is swag on the field against high end competition - I want a guy who is playing at the highest level and is out there like he knows he's the best guy on the field. And then couple that with production in big moments - that sorta cinches the confidence factor for me, some guys raise their level of play in those moments and some fold. Then you want his measurables to pass muster for an NFL body type, you can't fake size/strength/speed. So all this puts him at the top at his age group, and that age group eventually moves into the NFL so I like my chances that he'll remain one of the best (certainly doesn't always work out that way).

Fair post Dplank - I do want to focus on this line though

"you can't fake size/strength/speed". Those are the traits that are always Side Dishes for me at the QB position - DT/DE? Great

But if it was just as easy as size/strength/speed - then guys like Logan Thomas would have been great. OR RGIII would have been great - Heck. Brady Quinn loved the gym

I think consistently Size/Strength/Speed/Arm Strength are the Most overrated QB traits - NOT saying they have no role or lack importance - But certainly overrated(*)

(*) Two things here - random asides
1) I do think scouts put too much emphasis on them because they are tangible - is it the offense? the talent around him? is that his real second progression? Etc. All kind of vague / debatable / in the eye of the beholder

Big and Fast? I can time and measure that

2). I play a lot of Hockey - and you see the kids who can skate like the blazes - fall it love with that - Well know that I have to play old man positionally sound and smart hockey - I can tell you this-

There is not a skater in the NHL that can skate faster than I can pass the puck

Same thing in Football. What's faster than a guy with 4.3 Speed? A QB getting the ball out in 1.5 seconds


One more: I also think Speed is improperly correlated with pocket mobility for the QB position.

I completely get why that is - there is an intuitive thinking - well he's faster than that guy so he must evade rushers easier. (**). TO me it seems like the in pocket stuff is mostly a "Knack". a step here, moving up there, etc. RGIII was terrible at this, whereas Tom Brady running his fat OL 40 time is great.


(**) Where I think it helps - aside from big runs (though that can usually be done just as well by a "reasonable" athlete if he escapes the pocket and every one is down field, but I digress) - It helps in terms of muzzling the Pass Rush somewhat - They have to be more disciplined, contain, etc. Anything that takes options and space away from the Pass Rusher helps the Offensive Lineman

[dplank]

I would argue that none of us here see any of those things. It's hard enough for pro scouts to discern this type of insight into a player, let alone a bunch of random dudes on the internet. I just laugh when I read some of this shit, like people pretending to be scouts or something. We aren't.

Okay. But just so you know, many “draft experts” and scouts had Mitch Trubisky ranked higher than both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahones while many of of us idiots on the board thought drafting Mitch was a dumb fucking move.

So there’s that. What they’re doing isn’t magic (or Wizard of Oz behind the curtain bullshit) so I believe many of us are quite capable of spotting legit talent.

You know, it’s amazing to me how many players come out of nowhere and gain a bunch of hype to get drafted in the first round (e.g. Mitch Trubisky and Shea McClellin). So color me dubious when it comes to the almighty “draft experts”.

We simply don't have the access to information that the experts get, nor I assume the training/eye for it - and certainly not the time. I agree with you though that it's not magic, and these guys obviously aren't fool proof. I got into a lengthy argument on the golf course with a Ravens scout once about this very subject, he kept insisting "regular folk" didn't know shit and I kept saying "dude, you learned from someone, it' s not like you were born with an eye for football projections, so it can be taught/learned".

These guys like the smell of their own farts. And they LOVE to one up each other. Winning to them is nailing a prospect that no one else saw coming. IMO, they tend to reach more for talent in part to show off their "chops", and fall in love with testing/data far too often over tape. This is what I think happened with Trubisky. The obvious choice was Watson, all day every day, the guy was the best player on the field and led his team to a national championship. Year after year great. But those farts start coming on and scouts gotta scout. They just over think it. I believe same happened with Fields this year as what happened to Watson.

So anyhow, I'm not bowing at the alter of these scouts. But I also have a job and a family, I'm not sitting down scouring gobs of NCAA coaches film (nor do I even have access to it). I also don't know the scheme's nearly well enough to properly understand who should be doing what out there, these guys live and breath that stuff. I watch the QB Room stuff that G08 posted and quickly realize I don't know jack shit. I don't mean to short change anyone, by all means if you're spending 10-20 hours a week on this stuff then great, but my strong suspicion is none of us are doing that and instead we're working off a starting point of a Mel Kiper/Todd McShay type, then sorta putting our own minor spin on it. At least that's what I'm doing.

[dplank]

I would argue that none of us here see any of those things. It's hard enough for pro scouts to discern this type of insight into a player, let alone a bunch of random dudes on the internet. I just laugh when I read some of this shit, like people pretending to be scouts or something. We aren't.

All of us are doing the same thing here, we are reading/watching other peoples takes on guys and applying our own personal bias to their insights. I don't care what % progressions he had, it's OSU, most of the time his first read was probably wide open. Are we supposed to ding him for that? Do we think "generational" QB Lawrence didn't mostly throw to open receivers? Why do we ding Fields for playing against Rutgers but not ding Lawrence for playing against the Citidel? It's meaningless. Same goes for any "mechanical" stuff - I call bullshit on anyone who posts "mechanical" stuff other than just parroting what some other writer/scout said. I mean...I can't really tell any difference between any of the top QB's at all just by watching a few games - no one can. Other than some superficial stuff like one guy appears faster or shows a stronger arm - other than that, we have no clue.

So I take my opinion 90% from what draft experts/scouts say and then apply my own personal factoring in which I readily admit is arbitrary. But what I'm looking for is swag on the field against high end competition - I want a guy who is playing at the highest level and is out there like he knows he's the best guy on the field. And then couple that with production in big moments - that sorta cinches the confidence factor for me, some guys raise their level of play in those moments and some fold. Then you want his measurables to pass muster for an NFL body type, you can't fake size/strength/speed. So all this puts him at the top at his age group, and that age group eventually moves into the NFL so I like my chances that he'll remain one of the best (certainly doesn't always work out that way).

Fair post Dplank - I do want to focus on this line though

"you can't fake size/strength/speed". Those are the traits that are always Side Dishes for me at the QB position - DT/DE? Great

But if it was just as easy as size/strength/speed - then guys like Logan Thomas would have been great. OR RGIII would have been great - Heck. Brady Quinn loved the gym

I think consistently Size/Strength/Speed/Arm Strength are the Most overrated QB traits - NOT saying they have no role or lack importance - But certainly overrated(*)

(*) Two things here - random asides
1) I do think scouts put too much emphasis on them because they are tangible - is it the offense? the talent around him? is that his real second progression? Etc. All kind of vague / debatable / in the eye of the beholder

Big and Fast? I can time and measure that

2). I play a lot of Hockey - and you see the kids who can skate like the blazes - fall it love with that - Well know that I have to play old man positionally sound and smart hockey - I can tell you this-

There is not a skater in the NHL that can skate faster than I can pass the puck

Same thing in Football. What's faster than a guy with 4.3 Speed? A QB getting the ball out in 1.5 seconds


One more: I also think Speed is improperly correlated with pocket mobility for the QB position.

I completely get why that is - there is an intuitive thinking - well he's faster than that guy so he must evade rushers easier. (**). TO me it seems like the in pocket stuff is mostly a "Knack". a step here, moving up there, etc. RGIII was terrible at this, whereas Tom Brady running his fat OL 40 time is great.


(**) Where I think it helps - aside from big runs (though that can usually be done just as well by a "reasonable" athlete if he escapes the pocket and every one is down field, but I digress) - It helps in terms of muzzling the Pass Rush somewhat - They have to be more disciplined, contain, etc. Anything that takes options and space away from the Pass Rusher helps the Offensive Lineman

I agree that speed/strength for QB's is not what I value most, it's the mental side. And I agree that is obviously the far more difficult thing to project from NCAA to Pro. My size/strength/speed comment was more general, not specific to QB's. But I do think this played a part in the Trubisky debacle. Mitch was, and still is, a better athlete than Watson. Watson though had gobs of tape playing at a really high level against the best of the best. Watson seemed like a natural player, I also agree that intuition here is a thing and it's really important. Also agree that a quick trigger is the best weapon, that's been Brady's secret sauce his whole career IMO - he's the smartest guy on the field and gets the ball out before he gets hit all day long. Yea, I could have summed this all up with a simple "Agreed" post, I agree with all of it.

[Wounded Bear]

Okay. But just so you know, many “draft experts” and scouts had Mitch Trubisky ranked higher than both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahones while many of of us idiots on the board thought drafting Mitch was a dumb fucking move.

So there’s that. What they’re doing isn’t magic (or Wizard of Oz behind the curtain bullshit) so I believe many of us are quite capable of spotting legit talent.

You know, it’s amazing to me how many players come out of nowhere and gain a bunch of hype to get drafted in the first round (e.g. Mitch Trubisky and Shea McClellin). So color me dubious when it comes to the almighty “draft experts”.

We simply don't have the access to information that the experts get, nor I assume the training/eye for it - and certainly not the time. I agree with you though that it's not magic, and these guys obviously aren't fool proof. I got into a lengthy argument on the golf course with a Ravens scout once about this very subject, he kept insisting "regular folk" didn't know shit and I kept saying "dude, you learned from someone, it' s not like you were born with an eye for football projections, so it can be taught/learned".

These guys like the smell of their own farts....

Right on.

I watch JT Sullivan’s YouTube videos critiquing QB play. Sometimes I know exactly what he’s saying, other times I haven’t a clue.

So I get it. I think you said it best when you said some of these seasoned professionals get seduced by the measurables instead of watching the tape and seeing if the player’s skills have a chance of making the transition to the NFL.

Good post.

[mmmc_35]

Well no reason to watch the games if you are not an expert.

It doesn't take an expert. It takes an expert to determine if noticeable faults can be fixed, if surrounding talent helps or hurts a players deficencies, etc. Basic talent and normal skills a normal fan should be able to spot. If not we watch football differently.

[WP.1]

Fair post Dplank - I do want to focus on this line though

"you can't fake size/strength/speed". Those are the traits that are always Side Dishes for me at the QB position - DT/DE? Great

But if it was just as easy as size/strength/speed - then guys like Logan Thomas would have been great. OR RGIII would have been great - Heck. Brady Quinn loved the gym

I think consistently Size/Strength/Speed/Arm Strength are the Most overrated QB traits - NOT saying they have no role or lack importance - But certainly overrated(*)

(*) Two things here - random asides
1) I do think scouts put too much emphasis on them because they are tangible - is it the offense? the talent around him? is that his real second progression? Etc. All kind of vague / debatable / in the eye of the beholder

Big and Fast? I can time and measure that

2). I play a lot of Hockey - and you see the kids who can skate like the blazes - fall it love with that - Well know that I have to play old man positionally sound and smart hockey - I can tell you this-

There is not a skater in the NHL that can skate faster than I can pass the puck

Same thing in Football. What's faster than a guy with 4.3 Speed? A QB getting the ball out in 1.5 seconds


One more: I also think Speed is improperly correlated with pocket mobility for the QB position.

I completely get why that is - there is an intuitive thinking - well he's faster than that guy so he must evade rushers easier. (**). TO me it seems like the in pocket stuff is mostly a "Knack". a step here, moving up there, etc. RGIII was terrible at this, whereas Tom Brady running his fat OL 40 time is great.


(**) Where I think it helps - aside from big runs (though that can usually be done just as well by a "reasonable" athlete if he escapes the pocket and every one is down field, but I digress) - It helps in terms of muzzling the Pass Rush somewhat - They have to be more disciplined, contain, etc. Anything that takes options and space away from the Pass Rusher helps the Offensive Lineman

I agree that speed/strength for QB's is not what I value most, it's the mental side. And I agree that is obviously the far more difficult thing to project from NCAA to Pro. My size/strength/speed comment was more general, not specific to QB's. But I do think this played a part in the Trubisky debacle. Mitch was, and still is, a better athlete than Watson. Watson though had gobs of tape playing at a really high level against the best of the best. Watson seemed like a natural player, I also agree that intuition here is a thing and it's really important. Also agree that a quick trigger is the best weapon, that's been Brady's secret sauce his whole career IMO - he's the smartest guy on the field and gets the ball out before he gets hit all day long. Yea, I could have summed this all up with a simple "Agreed" post, I agree with all of it.

MT10 is maybe better athlete in shorts, track and field but certainly not on a football field.