The Bears elite pass disruptor

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HisRoyalSweetness
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So, apparently the Bears had a top 10 pass disruptor last season... and it wasn't Khalil Mack.
Next Gen Stats' top 10 disruptors of 2020

Rank 10: Robert Quinn

Disruption rate: 15%
Sack rate: 0.7%
Total disruptions: 46
Sacks: 2

Quinn was a top-three disruptor in 2019, which is why the Bears were willing to sign him to a five-year, $70 million deal in 2020. Good news for the Bears: He's still a top-10 disruptor at 31 years old. Quinn has eye-popping speed off the edge, posting an average get-off of 0.8 seconds or less in each of the last five seasons. He finished with the fourth-fastest average time to hurry (any time a player gets within 1.5 yards of a QB from snap to pass) in 2020 at 2.75 seconds. His sack total, however, is not what you'd expect for a player making $14 million per year. Quinn tied for the fewest sacks of any player who has posted a 12 percent or better pressure rate and 300-plus pass rushes in a single season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), meaning his sack total should be higher than it was in 2020. That's what Bears fans hope will happen in 2021. I know it might be a surprise to see Quinn included here, but keep in mind that sacks are not an all-encompassing stat. Quinn was still making a difference even if he wasn't getting home often in 2020.

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats ... t-not-no-1
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Interesting take; thanks for posting this!
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I don’t think I’m buying this, but I do expect a bounce back year from Quinn.
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Shades of Shea having lots of pressures according to PFF IMHO
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Xee wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 4:21 pm Interesting take; thanks for posting this!
At the risk of sounding American, you're welcome Xee. :)

Like dplank, I'm not sure I buy it. I certainly can't say I noticed him getting near the QB very often and if he was that effective then shouldn't Mack have had an easier time of things? However, perhaps it's a reason to hope the pass rush this year will be a force. It needs to be because our secondary, especially our CBs, looks shaky at best and I fear losing Fuller is going to have a much bigger impact than many seem to think.
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Unfortunately I can't provide time or place or link, but I recall later in the season, announcers were saying that Quinn was doing a better pass rushing job for the Bears than fans realized, because his effectiveness was not in getting sacks which is all fans notice.
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The Marshall Plan
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I call bullshit on the whole thing.

What's the phrase? There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. This is one of those examples.

Quinn wasn't signed to almost sack the QB.

This reminds me of the conversations people used to have with me about Derek Jeter and his intangibles.
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I dunno. I'm skeptical.

If he was so effective and Mack was on the other side, why wasn't the defense a Holy Terror?
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Moriarty wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 am I dunno. I'm skeptical.

If he was so effective and Mack was on the other side, why wasn't the defense a Holy Terror?
I think the right answer to that is QBs WERE close to be under pressure. BUT the QBs had safe and steady targets all season covered by Danny T and Skrine, and almost always were able to deliver the ball to whoever those guys were covering.

So sure, if these less tangible stats can often be successfully used to measure stress on the QB maybe they're legit more often than not. But in the case of the Bears last year I don't think it works because being "that close" didn't translate to failure for the QB like maybe it should more often than not.

So in this case the stat doesn't pass the smell test.

I think CB will be fine this year replacing Skrine and coming close to Fuller. But ILB other than 58 is a problem.
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IE wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 11:25 am
Moriarty wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 am I dunno. I'm skeptical.

If he was so effective and Mack was on the other side, why wasn't the defense a Holy Terror?
I think the right answer to that is QBs WERE close to be under pressure. BUT the QBs had safe and steady targets all season covered by Danny T and Skrine, and almost always were able to deliver the ball to whoever those guys were covering.

So sure, if these less tangible stats can often be successfully used to measure stress on the QB maybe they're legit more often than not. But in the case of the Bears last year I don't think it works because being "that close" didn't translate to failure for the QB like maybe it should more often than not.

So in this case the stat doesn't pass the smell test.

I think CB will be fine this year replacing Skrine and coming close to Fuller. But ILB other than 58 is a problem.
Really disagree with you on your ILB analysis (in other thread as well). I believe we had a Chuck Pagano problem, not an ILB problem. Opposing teams knew what we were doing out there, so even when "pressure" came it always seemed like the QB knew exactly where it was coming from and exactly where to go with the football. But PFF counts those pressures based on snap to throw timing and doesn't account for what I call "lazy pressure", pressure that doesn't actually impact the play.

I'm counting on Desai to have a major impact and I believe he will. But part of my confidence here is based on how bad I knew Pagano was and so I just know" it can only get better" than that garbage.
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To be fair though IE, the statistics pertain to Quinn's apparent effectiveness. It's not his fault if he gets close to the QB but there's a wide open outlet because others have done a poor job in coverage.
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Moriarty wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 am I dunno. I'm skeptical.

If he was so effective and Mack was on the other side, why wasn't the defense a Holy Terror?
Yeah, particularly when you have this from Mack:

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So on one side, we had the #10 pass disruptor and on the other side we have the #1 Edge Defender, but somehow our defense becomes Milquetoast? Only a special kind of inept defensive coordinator can squander resources like. And that's not even considering the likes of Eddie Jackson, Kyle Fuller, JJ, Roquan, Akeem, et al.... A special kind of stupid.
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Moriarty wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 am I dunno. I'm skeptical.

If he was so effective and Mack was on the other side, why wasn't the defense a Holy Terror?
To paraphrase the great Thornton Melon, BECAUSE PAGANO WAS TOO MUCH OF A PUSSYWIMP TO LET MACK GO IN THERE AND KILL THOSE PACKER BASTARDS!

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dplank wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 11:52 am
IE wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 11:25 am

I think the right answer to that is QBs WERE close to be under pressure. BUT the QBs had safe and steady targets all season covered by Danny T and Skrine, and almost always were able to deliver the ball to whoever those guys were covering.

So sure, if these less tangible stats can often be successfully used to measure stress on the QB maybe they're legit more often than not. But in the case of the Bears last year I don't think it works because being "that close" didn't translate to failure for the QB like maybe it should more often than not.

So in this case the stat doesn't pass the smell test.

I think CB will be fine this year replacing Skrine and coming close to Fuller. But ILB other than 58 is a problem.
Really disagree with you on your ILB analysis (in other thread as well). I believe we had a Chuck Pagano problem, not an ILB problem. Opposing teams knew what we were doing out there, so even when "pressure" came it always seemed like the QB knew exactly where it was coming from and exactly where to go with the football. But PFF counts those pressures based on snap to throw timing and doesn't account for what I call "lazy pressure", pressure that doesn't actually impact the play.

I'm counting on Desai to have a major impact and I believe he will. But part of my confidence here is based on how bad I knew Pagano was and so I just know" it can only get better" than that garbage.
I'm no expert on LB play for sure. Calling my opinion analysis is a compliment - even if I was wrong! lol

I really hope it was Pagano. But to me it looked like OCs really picking on the Bears' weak links & to me it was those two in particular (in addition to picking on the rookie corner a bit as well).

But Danny just looked like he can't cover at all any more - like passing a basic smell test. It was like "if you ever get in trouble, throw to who Trevathan is covering". It is my personal biggest concern on the team, actually. Maybe I was spoiled by watching Urlacher patroling the field. Or even KPL for that matter - he was pretty good in coverage. As was Kwit, after he had the chance.
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I think they should take this as an indicator that their methodology is AFU...

Still, here's hoping he gets his act together this year!
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Quinn played a lot like Floyd.

The absence of Goldman was felt, Trevathon sucked in coverage, RRH didn’t play like RRH, Nichols was ok, Mack was double and triple teamed, Hicks wasn’t a monster.

I am hoping it was a lot of Paganos scheme and a little bit of a down year on players performance.

Trevathon isn’t going to gain speed back, Hicks is a year older, RRH is gone, but Quinn is hopefully healthy, Goldman is back and Paganos scheme is gone.

Here is to hope eternal.
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Maybe RRH DID play like RRH! He flashed in some games, and then in others just disappeared. I really seriously disliked his self-celebrations when he made the smallest play. The defensive Anthony Miller, in that way. Act like you've been there before, and doing well is standard - not special.

@Plank I AM with you that Quinn is probably due to deliver more this year, for several reasons (Goldman, Desai, hopefully healthy Hicks). I'm just not a big Christian Jones fan, and I really don't like all the Lions fans here saying they're glad (or ok with) him being gone. I know he's a very serviceable journeyman/backup and part time starter. I think he's probably AS good as Danny right now. But to me that is the problem. Again it is more of a smell test thing, and me remembering when the Bear D was giving up plays and first downs who was not making the play. I don't want to over-exaggerate it. I think the Bears are a really good team with few weak links now at the worst.
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i think too, and i dont want to sound like this is a sweeping catch-all explanation, but not having goldman was huge and basically takes everyone out of their comfort zone.
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RustinFields wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:13 pm i think too, and i dont want to sound like this is a sweeping catch-all explanation, but not having goldman was huge and basically takes everyone out of their comfort zone.
Agree. And I hate it when people suggest cutting Hicks. We may finally have Hicks/Goldman play together, it’s been two years! And with Nichols coming on, our front is ELITE. We will stop the run with base defense, that was absolutely not true last year - we got gashed and had to overplay the run. I still hate Pagano, but he never had the line healthy during his tenure.
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I'm not arguing or discounting the Pagano angle of this.

HOWEVER....there were other angles to this.

1) The offense was dogshit. It doesn't help when Mitch can't complete a pass over 20 yards. Or when Foles starts showing his age. Or when the OL is swiss cheese.
2) Total lack of commitment to the running game. The drives never had any length to them to give the defense a rest.
3) Goldman sitting out killed us.

More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.

4) Even though we're dealing with professionals, it has to be demotivating as hell to have the offense constantly shit the bed, have the weight of the world put on your shoulders, and then deal with the criticism when the slightest thing goes wrong.

I wish I had the enthusiasm some of you guys have about Desai. I just don't. I don't think a potential contending team (dependent upon how Fields does this year) should have somebody goes from safeties coach to DC. Hopefully we get a snapback and become an elite unit again.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am
More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.
You are correct.
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I just don't buy that Quinn was that effective in pressuring QBs. He was, though, just part of a defense which was about as tough as a marshmallow. If DeSai brings a more aggressive schema and with Goldman returning, stats for pressures/sacks/fumbles caused/ints/run defense should show improvement.
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Moriarty wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 10:11 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am
More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.
You are correct.
This is not a good look.
His life, not mine. I've got no right to tell him what he should do.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am I'm not arguing or discounting the Pagano angle of this.

HOWEVER....there were other angles to this.

1) The offense was dogshit. It doesn't help when Mitch can't complete a pass over 20 yards. Or when Foles starts showing his age. Or when the OL is swiss cheese.
2) Total lack of commitment to the running game. The drives never had any length to them to give the defense a rest.
3) Goldman sitting out killed us.

More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.

4) Even though we're dealing with professionals, it has to be demotivating as hell to have the offense constantly shit the bed, have the weight of the world put on your shoulders, and then deal with the criticism when the slightest thing goes wrong.

I wish I had the enthusiasm some of you guys have about Desai. I just don't. I don't think a potential contending team (dependent upon how Fields does this year) should have somebody goes from safeties coach to DC. Hopefully we get a snapback and become an elite unit again.
Couple things here:

1. Eddie Goldman has asthma along with his weight, so a retraction is in order.
2. It's hard to stick with the run when you are getting stuffed for no gain or losses. When we finally started having a little success, Nagy did actually stick with it. Successful runs and "sticking with the run" do go hand in hand, you can't just keep running into a brick wall over and over again. Charles Leno was dogshit at run blocking, Jenkins will provide an immediate boost there.
3. I do agree that the offensive woes hurt our defense, but our offense sucked in 2018 too and our defense was so great they propped them up. It's an unreasonable standard, but we've done it before pre-Pagano.
4. Goldman sitting out absolutely killed us. Hicks is a 12 game player, you can count on him missing 1/4 of the season at this stage of his career. Without those two we simply can't stop the run at all. It was tough even with just one of them. With both? Shades of Ted Washington/Keith Traylor - no one will be running up the middle on us when we have Nichols/Goldman/Hicks + Mack and Roquan? I mean, no one will be running down our throats if we stay healthy. We will make teams one dimensional, and that's where EJax does his thing. And Desai will play him at his correct position to make the impact!
5. Pagano sucks
6. Brandon Staley made a similar jump as Desai is making, and was a GREAT DC and how already a HC.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am 4) Even though we're dealing with professionals, it has to be demotivating as hell to have the offense constantly shit the bed, have the weight of the world put on your shoulders, and then deal with the criticism when the slightest thing goes wrong.

ah, but that has an historical basis for being ... way back to the days of Butkus in his prime (and even earlier) where he was quoted once telling the offense as he came to the sidelines to "go out and hold them for a while", good to great defenses being wasted due to inept, or worse, offensive play is tradition ... a tradition the Bears only break every now and then

dplank wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 11:19 am 4. Goldman sitting out absolutely killed us. Hicks is a 12 game player, you can count on him missing 1/4 of the season at this stage of his career. Without those two we simply can't stop the run at all. It was tough even with just one of them. With both? Shades of Ted Washington/Keith Traylor - no one will be running up the middle on us when we have Nichols/Goldman/Hicks + Mack and Roquan? I mean, no one will be running down our throats if we stay healthy. We will make teams one dimensional, and that's where EJax does his thing. And Desai will play him at his correct position to make the impact!

this is a good example of another tradition I would like the Bears to get rid of - not having a Plan B for when their plans go amiss

yes Goldman was important and the defense is so much better with him out there, but at some point it would seem the Bears defensive minds would have the discussion in their meetings about "what if Goldman isn't available?", and come up with some options and adjustments ... I would like to think they have those discussions about everyone, but sometimes during games it looks like they never thought about a player going down until he actually does

I am hoping Tonga is the real deal so he can contribute to solidify the interior DL and be a reliable force in the rotation
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Moriarty wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 10:11 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am
More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.
You are correct.
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dplank wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 9:14 pm
RustinFields wrote: Fri May 28, 2021 7:13 pm i think too, and i dont want to sound like this is a sweeping catch-all explanation, but not having goldman was huge and basically takes everyone out of their comfort zone.
Agree. And I hate it when people suggest cutting Hicks. We may finally have Hicks/Goldman play together, it’s been two years! And with Nichols coming on, our front is ELITE. We will stop the run with base defense, that was absolutely not true last year - we got gashed and had to overplay the run. I still hate Pagano, but he never had the line healthy during his tenure.
I dont consider it a knock on Hicks per se, but I just dont think he's a dude who has the stamina to take on double teams the majority of the game. I'm also in the column of people really excited to see him back playing next to Goldman.
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dplank wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 11:19 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Sat May 29, 2021 8:57 am I'm not arguing or discounting the Pagano angle of this.

HOWEVER....there were other angles to this.

1) The offense was dogshit. It doesn't help when Mitch can't complete a pass over 20 yards. Or when Foles starts showing his age. Or when the OL is swiss cheese.
2) Total lack of commitment to the running game. The drives never had any length to them to give the defense a rest.
3) Goldman sitting out killed us.

More on Goldman. OK, I'm going to come off like an asshole here, but this is what I think. If Goldman has a comorbidity (maybe his weight counts) then I retract this statement and I apologize, but I think he should've played.

4) Even though we're dealing with professionals, it has to be demotivating as hell to have the offense constantly shit the bed, have the weight of the world put on your shoulders, and then deal with the criticism when the slightest thing goes wrong.

I wish I had the enthusiasm some of you guys have about Desai. I just don't. I don't think a potential contending team (dependent upon how Fields does this year) should have somebody goes from safeties coach to DC. Hopefully we get a snapback and become an elite unit again.
Couple things here:

1. Eddie Goldman has asthma along with his weight, so a retraction is in order.
2. It's hard to stick with the run when you are getting stuffed for no gain or losses. When we finally started having a little success, Nagy did actually stick with it. Successful runs and "sticking with the run" do go hand in hand, you can't just keep running into a brick wall over and over again. Charles Leno was dogshit at run blocking, Jenkins will provide an immediate boost there.
3. I do agree that the offensive woes hurt our defense, but our offense sucked in 2018 too and our defense was so great they propped them up. It's an unreasonable standard, but we've done it before pre-Pagano.
4. Goldman sitting out absolutely killed us. Hicks is a 12 game player, you can count on him missing 1/4 of the season at this stage of his career. Without those two we simply can't stop the run at all. It was tough even with just one of them. With both? Shades of Ted Washington/Keith Traylor - no one will be running up the middle on us when we have Nichols/Goldman/Hicks + Mack and Roquan? I mean, no one will be running down our throats if we stay healthy. We will make teams one dimensional, and that's where EJax does his thing. And Desai will play him at his correct position to make the impact!
5. Pagano sucks
6. Brandon Staley made a similar jump as Desai is making, and was a GREAT DC and how already a HC.
1. Yeah I retract.

2. Nagy wouldn't know what to do with a running game if it sat on his face and wiggled. He had Jordan Howard run out of town. Why would he do that? He was a 1,000 yard rusher. That's a problem I have with Nagy. He's more interested in the string theory aspects of offense than he is on the simpler things that make an entire team better. I'm not saying to abandon string theory. I'm just saying that if you have a possible generational defense that you need to structure things to give them as much rest time as possible to sustain those maximum results.

3. 2018 was just a magical year. Fangio. The Mack trade poured kerosene all over it. Its just sad. Reminds me of all those Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers and Tillman years where their efforts were squandered.

4. Agreed. The run defense will be much better. Danny T's decline concerns me. I think the sky is the limit for Bilal Nichols. So in terms of the immediate front 3. Good luck going up against Nichols, Goldman and Hicks.

5. Yes. It's sad because he's such a likeable guy, but yeah.

6. I hope you're right. I'm rooting for Desai and I want him to succeed. I just would've preferred a name that could be almost a co-head coach like Fangio given Nagy and the offense.
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Lack of Goldman, poor schematic structure in the back 7, RRH only playing 6 games, losing JJ early....

And a lot of playing from behind.
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He had Jordan Howard run out of town. Why would he do that? He was a 1,000 yard rusher.
I legitimately don't understand the angst about Howard.

He ran for 1300 yards in 2016, then 1100 in 2017, then 900 in 2018, then was traded and ran for 500 yards in 2019, and 60 yards in 2020 (between two teams).

And now the Bears have another 1000 yard back, who by all appearances is a better schematic fit. I don't see the issue.
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