Who leads the Bears in receiving TDs this year?

[Mikefive]

Seems like an interesting question, because I don't think there's a clear answer. Let's survey some options.

Jimmy Graham... Last year's leader with 8. But he's getting old and his replacement who showed promise enters year 2.
Allen Robinson... Our #1 WR is a reasonable choice, but only led the team once in his 3 years and he's not a burner to match JF1's long ball tendancy.
Darnell Mooney... A guy who can be a home run hitter if we can make the long ball connections.
Cole Kmet... A big, tenacious red zone target.
Damiere Byrd... A speedy veteran who has made big plays in OTAs.
Anthony Miller... Former R2 guy who had several TDs as a rookie and needs to rebound.
Marquise Goodwin... Another bomb threat with lots of experience.
Others...
Tarik Cohen... Versatile open field threat coming off ACL.
David Montgomery... Has worked on his speed, but not yet shown a lot of passing game potential.
Dazz Newsome... Rookie speed demon who broke collarbone in OTAs, but should be back early enough.

Answer the poll and discuss.

[wulfy]

Cole Kmet: 21 Touchdowns (minimum)

[Mikefive]

I'm going to be boring and say Allen Robinson, although I think the TDs will be very distributed instead of one guy getting a bunch. I think Graham and Kmet will split the red zone production. In the same way, the three smurfs Mooney, Byrd and Goodwin will divide up the long balls. The other thing about small WRs is that they have a higher injury tendancy. Miller I have no faith in whatsoever, particularly since we brought in the experienced vets. That leaves Robinson, who will play more than any of those other guys, tends to avoid injury and is a reliable target. He may not get many deep balls, but if you divide up 30 TDs among that group, Robinson could put up 6 or 7 and still come out on top.

[dplank]

I went with ARob. Graham is most likely but I think we will see a bunch of guys in the 4-8 range and ARob squeaks it out by 1 over either TE.

I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Miller though.

[G08]

Depends on the QB, honestly... but for my money I think Allen Robinson forms a connection with the kid QB and gets a lot of looks in the red zone.

[IE]

I see ARob having a big year with TDs. Even on fewer catches and a few less yards. He's not a burner but he's got fine speed and a much bigger field with either QB throwing to him. Double figures TDs... 10 or 11 likely but maybe even 12. Healthy mid-20s AJ Green-ish.

I see Graham splitting more with Kmet this year, but not being passed by him.

Mooney & the rest will have more TDs... just not the production of ARob with these QBs.

[Yogi da Bear]

I also think it will be pretty evenly distributed, and I had ARob as well.

Would like to take umbrage with calling Kmet (I assume that's who you meant) Graham's replacement. Kmet is an inline TE primarily, while Graham is pretty much only an H-Back. Not really a replacement. We're going to need a new H-Back next year. I like Evan Engram for that role. Has to work on his drops though. Still would love to see us try Ryan Nall in that role. Don't know why we haven't yet.

[Burl]

I voted Kmet but thinking on it a little more, that's just me being hopeful he pans out.
Arob is most likely the guy.

[Moriarty]

Anthony Miller had 7 his first year, but then it stopped.
Throw out his high and low and ARob has logged 6,7,6. You can guess pretty well what you're getting there.
Mooney had 4, but could rise strongly with competence from the OL and QB.
Graham has been all over the place. If Kmet takes a lot of his snaps, he could drop - but I don't think that happens in the red zone, at least.


I'll take Graham, Mooney, ARob as the most likely, in order.

[Mikefive]

I went with ARob. Graham is most likely but I think we will see a bunch of guys in the 4-8 range and ARob squeaks it out by 1 over either TE.

I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Miller though.

Another thing working against Miller is that any QB cohesion advantage he had by being on the team for multiple years just vanished with the QB changes. Further, if any of those small vet guys with more speed step up (like Byrd has so far), Miller could be bumped out of the slot role he had last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller on some of the inactives this year.

[IE]

I went with ARob. Graham is most likely but I think we will see a bunch of guys in the 4-8 range and ARob squeaks it out by 1 over either TE.

I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Miller though.

Another thing working against Miller is that any QB cohesion advantage he had by being on the team for multiple years just vanished with the QB changes. Further, if any of those small vet guys with more speed step up (like Byrd has so far), Miller could be bumped out of the slot role he had last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller on some of the inactives this year.

I'd LOVE to see Miller get 9-10. He's totally capable if his head is right. AND if he can be in better synch with a QB who doesn't have to throw to a precise spot. I don't think it is possible to judge Miller fairly without considering who he had throwing the ball to him for 3 years.

I do understand that ARob's median performance is more around 6 - which is half of what I projected. But in my guess I applied a severe QB discount to his past performances. It is not unprecedented to have him disappear a bit. Marquise Lee seemed to steal a lot of attention from ARob after ARob's big year. Maybe Miller could be that guy. Or Byrd - he's actually pretty good.

I think/hope the answer to the U TE (Hback reference) is Jesper Horsted. They re-signed him for some reason. If he wasn't developing I'd think they'd just cut him and move on like some other TEs that have come through. Kmet will always be a Y. But Y TEs still can catch a lot of TEs so in that sense he could be Graham's replacement (in scoring). Gronk is a Y. I agree that unless Horsted makes the squad and really contributes as a passing target, a move TE is a key need next year to replace Graham.

[The Marshall Plan]

AR12 is a high capacity scoring machine who for the first time in his career with have a talented QB (yes Fields) throw him the ball for the better part of the season.

Mooney will have a good year too.

[Wounded Bear]

When we get on the Red Zone, teams seem to pay AR a lot of attention. That’s why he won’t lead the team in reception TDs.

I put Cole Kmet, who is going to be Fields best friend for a while.

[spudbear]

Went with K-Mert as I think he's ready for a quantum level improvement after an offseason of NFL training and the change in QB's. Mitch didn't seem to look for his TE's as safety valves.
A mobile QB like JF1 is going to look of a TE to help him out, and I believe the two youngsters will become good friends.

[RichH55]

I went with ARob. Graham is most likely but I think we will see a bunch of guys in the 4-8 range and ARob squeaks it out by 1 over either TE.

I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Miller though.

Fair take across the board

[RichH55]

Anthony Miller had 7 his first year, but then it stopped.
Throw out his high and low and ARob has logged 6,7,6. You can guess pretty well what you're getting there.
Mooney had 4, but could rise strongly with competence from the OL and QB.
Graham has been all over the place. If Kmet takes a lot of his snaps, he could drop - but I don't think that happens in the red zone, at least.


I'll take Graham, Mooney, ARob as the most likely, in order.

Also a very fair take

TDs just really aren't ARob's game - He does plenty of other things very well but TDs aren't his thing

I just hope whomever is #1 isn't #1 in a prettiest woman on Radio type of way

[grendel2000]

The answer is Mooney...

- Rob will be the center of attention for opposing D and he's never been a prolific scorer.
- Graham and Kmet will split TDs so neither will be in the lead
- Montgomery is a possibility if he can be a threat in the passing game too
- Everyone else is meh.

[dplank]

The answer is Mooney...

- Rob will be the center of attention for opposing D and he's never been a prolific scorer.
- Graham and Kmet will split TDs so neither will be in the lead
- Montgomery is a possibility if he can be a threat in the passing game too
- Everyone else is meh.

I hope you’re right cause if Mooney has 9-10 TDs we are going to have a great year.

[grendel2000]

The answer is Mooney...

- Rob will be the center of attention for opposing D and he's never been a prolific scorer.
- Graham and Kmet will split TDs so neither will be in the lead
- Montgomery is a possibility if he can be a threat in the passing game too
- Everyone else is meh.

I hope you’re right cause if Mooney has 9-10 TDs we are going to have a great year.

BOOK IT!

[Atkins&Rebel]

Dalton: Graham for 10 (vets tend to use their TE's down in the red zone and Graham still knows how to body position and be "open" against most defenders he tends to face. Foles leaned on him heavy at times.)
Fields: Cohen for 6 (There will simply be more designed plays to help slow the game down, and Nagy can't help but get cute when he needs a yard, but I think good O line + effective QB = more success.)

[Mikefive]

The answer is Mooney...

- Rob will be the center of attention for opposing D and he's never been a prolific scorer.
- Graham and Kmet will split TDs so neither will be in the lead
- Montgomery is a possibility if he can be a threat in the passing game too
- Everyone else is meh.

I hope you’re right cause if Mooney has 9-10 TDs we are going to have a great year.

I'm going to predict--not necessarily a sophomore slump--but a tough time for Mooney to improve on what he did last year. Why is that? First, new QBs. There's no opportunity for him to leverage his QB familiarity he built last year. Second, there are two other guys who are just like him. So while Mooney is battling with the CB2's, Byrd and Goodwin will be competing with weaker coverage, thus have opportunities to be involved in the same kind of plays Mooney got last year. We're already seeing it so far with Byrd making big plays in OTAs. Note that after Cohen went down early, there weren't any speed guys to compete with Mooney last year. And third, Mooney (as well as the other smurfs I mentioned) are small guys who will be fighting for balls with guys bigger than they are. So injury is a greater possibility for smaller guys as Mooney found out late last year.

Mooney is a nice WR who works hard at his craft. But it's tough for me to see a guy like him getting more production than he got last year, particularly with the way this team is setup.

[dplank]

I hope you’re right cause if Mooney has 9-10 TDs we are going to have a great year.

I'm going to predict--not necessarily a sophomore slump--but a tough time for Mooney to improve on what he did last year. Why is that? First, new QBs. There's no opportunity for him to leverage his QB familiarity he built last year. Second, there are two other guys who are just like him. So while Mooney is battling with the CB2's, Byrd and Goodwin will be competing with weaker coverage, thus have opportunities to be involved in the same kind of plays Mooney got last year. We're already seeing it so far with Byrd making big plays in OTAs. Note that after Cohen went down early, there weren't any speed guys to compete with Mooney last year. And third, Mooney (as well as the other smurfs I mentioned) are small guys who will be fighting for balls with guys bigger than they are. So injury is a greater possibility for smaller guys as Mooney found out late last year.

Mooney is a nice WR who works hard at his craft. But it's tough for me to see a guy like him getting more production than he got last year, particularly with the way this team is setup.

Wait a minute. We went from Mitch/Foles to Fields/Dalton and you’re pointing to that as a negative?

[Yogi da Bear]

I hope you’re right cause if Mooney has 9-10 TDs we are going to have a great year.

I'm going to predict--not necessarily a sophomore slump--but a tough time for Mooney to improve on what he did last year. Why is that? First, new QBs. There's no opportunity for him to leverage his QB familiarity he built last year. Second, there are two other guys who are just like him. So while Mooney is battling with the CB2's, Byrd and Goodwin will be competing with weaker coverage, thus have opportunities to be involved in the same kind of plays Mooney got last year. We're already seeing it so far with Byrd making big plays in OTAs. Note that after Cohen went down early, there weren't any speed guys to compete with Mooney last year. And third, Mooney (as well as the other smurfs I mentioned) are small guys who will be fighting for balls with guys bigger than they are. So injury is a greater possibility for smaller guys as Mooney found out late last year.

Mooney is a nice WR who works hard at his craft. But it's tough for me to see a guy like him getting more production than he got last year, particularly with the way this team is setup.

I don't think so. Last year, we overused Mooney underneath because our QBs couldn't get him the ball deep. That put a lot of stress on the kid and is eventually what got him injured:



God, I forget how absolutely awesome Mooney was. Hopefully, with Dalton/Fields, we can use him more to stretch the field rather than continuously hitting him underneath against a defense that's expecting it. That should relieve some of the stress against him. He won't have to dodge three guys only to have a fourth slam him out of bounds. I hope.

[Mikefive]

I'm going to predict--not necessarily a sophomore slump--but a tough time for Mooney to improve on what he did last year. Why is that? First, new QBs. There's no opportunity for him to leverage his QB familiarity he built last year. Second, there are two other guys who are just like him. So while Mooney is battling with the CB2's, Byrd and Goodwin will be competing with weaker coverage, thus have opportunities to be involved in the same kind of plays Mooney got last year. We're already seeing it so far with Byrd making big plays in OTAs. Note that after Cohen went down early, there weren't any speed guys to compete with Mooney last year. And third, Mooney (as well as the other smurfs I mentioned) are small guys who will be fighting for balls with guys bigger than they are. So injury is a greater possibility for smaller guys as Mooney found out late last year.

Mooney is a nice WR who works hard at his craft. But it's tough for me to see a guy like him getting more production than he got last year, particularly with the way this team is setup.

Wait a minute. We went from Mitch/Foles to Fields/Dalton and you’re pointing to that as a negative?

No. I said that the advantage that he'd have because the QB going into his second year of working with him, knowing his style and tendancies is mitigated. Mooney, Byrd and Goodwin are ALL in their first year with Dalton and Fields who are both learning about their new targets.

[dplank]

Ok but if I’m Mooney I’d trade the familiarity for the improved deep ball by a mile

[grendel2000]

Ok but if I’m Mooney I’d trade the familiarity for the improved deep ball by a mile

This (more or less)...

Mooney showed last year that he has the talent. At times he absolutely embarrassed DBs but found nothing to show for it due to sub par QB play. Once he gets on the same page with Fields that's going to be a whole new story. NONE of our other WR have shown they have that, including ARob (who has many talents but being a game breaking talent as a deep threat simply isn't one of them).

If one of the other "Smurfs" shows they have the same talent as Mooney the, yes, he may lose TD looks but I think that's unlikely (yet I hope to be proven wrong).

[o-pus #40 in B major]

I am pulling for the underdog here. With a healthy dose of red zone pass distribution, I think Jake Butt could end up with the most TDs.