Justin Fields Megathread - A story of Lovers and Haters

[wab]

My concern about him playing was less about his development and more about him taking a beating and getting hurt.

[dplank]

JF1 talking about speaking up to the refs during the MNF game....

“He said he (the defender) rushed into me, which I thought was a late hit, so I don’t know whether you run into me after I deliver the ball.” ‘Big Ben just got that call, so I’m not sure why you can’t give me that call,’ I explained. All I needed was for him to call it both ways. That’s exactly what I said to him. That was the only time we spoke.”

I love that he's already jawing at the refs. The dude just oozes leadership.

Good for the kid. He's showing he's got more balls than his head coach who doesn't have the courage to defend his players and call out the refs. I don't care what the rules about criticising the officials are, Nagy can find a way to speak out on his players' behalf rather than avoid questions or outright dismiss his players' legitimate grievances the way he did Marsh's. A leader doesn't do that. The guy simply isn't fit to be a head coach, not on any level.

You’re a really level headed poster, I can’t recall you ever going off like you have about this game and Nagy. I like it! It’s well deserved and you are spot on.

[G08]

My concern about him playing was less about his development and more about him taking a beating and getting hurt.

Same here. I don't think anyone doubts that you learn best from being on the field, but I've always maintained that if we cannot protect him I don't want him on the field.

He's getting pummeled but not nearly as badly as he did against Cleveland, and he's showing progress as a QB so it's a net positive IMO.


That being said... Fields is the most sacked QB in the NFL, despite "only" playing in 8 games (first appearance doesn't count since it was a blowout).

[KOP_Snake]

Eh... Grossman had some of the best offensive lines of this century and he still took season killing injuries.

[The Cooler King]

Well sacks are mostly a QB stat anyways so..

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Some good videos:

Breakdown of some of Field's plays against the Steelers:


Debate around whether Fields is a franchise QB:


Interviews with Fields:

[o-pus #40 in B major]

Thanks, HRS!

[IE]

It is great to see JT really digging JF1's performance. He doesn't go easy on guys. I agree with JT I thought it was weird to see them run the wildcat and have the best player on the field... not on the field. The only time I'd think that was OK is if JF1 was dinged or something.

And then there is the enigma that is ARob... I mean he's running down the seam wide open and I think JF1 saw him - maybe he just doesn't trust him. And then on the one he did throw to 12 up the sideline he caught the ball a good 5 yards from out of bounds... but then inexplicably went quickly right - which slowed him down and made the sideline his enemy. That was a sure TD if he just caught the ball and ran straight. To me it shows that ARob doesn't trust his speed at all and thought he'd need that extra angle. Boo.

[Grizzled]

They absolutely have to protect him better. We don't want David Carr part 2.

[AZ_Bearfan]

This is just the beginning.

[dplank]

They absolutely have to protect him better. We don't want David Carr part 2.

Most of his sacks have been scrambling out of the pocket, shoestring tackles. His big hits he’s taken have generally happened while scrambling downfield and not getting down in time. David Carr he is not.

[IE]

They absolutely have to protect him better. We don't want David Carr part 2.

Most of his sacks have been scrambling out of the pocket, shoestring tackles. His big hits he’s taken have generally happened while scrambling downfield and not getting down in time. David Carr he is not.

Those shoestring tackles are a testament to both his speed and his inexperience. These are very fast NFL defenders who rarely let a QB get around the edge - and in the times when he doesn't actually get around and they manage to trip him... it is them desperately diving at his feet to try to stop him, and not good or hard tackles. IIRC a good half-dozen times it has been *that* close where if the defender didn't manage to trip him he was good for another 15-20 yards. IMO JF1's clock in his head is going to get better & he's going to figure out when to accelerate, use slightly better angles (for him, using his speed) and how to high-step out of those finger tackles.

Actually I think he's already done a bit of that, and we've seen the result in the past several games. He isn't being tripped on the edge anymore, and accordingly his run yardage is way up.

[Grizzled]

They absolutely have to protect him better. We don't want David Carr part 2.

Most of his sacks have been scrambling out of the pocket, shoestring tackles. His big hits he’s taken have generally happened while scrambling downfield and not getting down in time. David Carr he is not.

He's been sacked at a rate which is highest in the NFL in the past 15 years. But hopefully with him learning the trade better and improved blocking, this will drop.

[wab]

Most of his sacks have been scrambling out of the pocket, shoestring tackles. His big hits he’s taken have generally happened while scrambling downfield and not getting down in time. David Carr he is not.

He's been sacked at a rate which is highest in the NFL in the past 15 years. But hopefully with him learning the trade better and improved blocking, this will drop.

I've brought this up before, but it was brushed aside like it was no big deal.

[Grizzled]

He's been sacked at a rate which is highest in the NFL in the past 15 years. But hopefully with him learning the trade better and improved blocking, this will drop.

I've brought this up before, but it was brushed aside like it was no big deal.

I'm hoping the rate goes down the rest of the season. Also, Fields seems incredibly tough and doesn't appear adversely affected (gun shy) from all the abuse he's gotten. But it does have to improve.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

He's been sacked at a rate which is highest in the NFL in the past 15 years. But hopefully with him learning the trade better and improved blocking, this will drop.

I've brought this up before, but it was brushed aside like it was no big deal.

In part that figure must be down to that brutal game against the Browns. It should continue to drop as the season continues.

It will be interesting to see if they make any changes to the O line this Sunday having had the bye week to evaluate it. They should but I very much doubt they will.

[dplank]

I've brought this up before, but it was brushed aside like it was no big deal.

I'm hoping the rate goes down the rest of the season. Also, Fields seems incredibly tough and doesn't appear adversely affected (gun shy) from all the abuse he's gotten. But it does have to improve.

I'm not saying it doesn't need to improve, it does. But sack numbers for guys like Watson, Russ, Lamar, and Fields can be deceiving. And all sacks are not equal, a shoestring tackle as he tries to escape the pocket is a negative play but does not create any "David Carr" risk at all - like, literally none. And that was the context of the comment "we don't want to David Carr him" - we aren't. The blocking needs to improve, Fields needs to continue to improve, and accept the fact that he can't outrun everyone or break every tackle and protect himself better. All these things can be true without any "David Carr" risk. The hard hits he's taken the last few weeks have been on runs that weren't sacks, they were downfield tackles.

[dave99]

In my opinion, none of JF's overall season stats are very relevant at this point. Almost a third of his sacks came in the Browns game which was obviously an aberration. Similarly his low QB rating is skewed by that game and Tampa. Even with regard to turnovers as Briggs points out:

Yes, he has eight interceptions and has lost two fumbles in nine games (seven starts). But not all of the interceptions have been his fault, and with the exception of the five-turnover meltdown last month at Tampa Bay, he has been excellent in this regard. This is one of the first steps for a young quarterback, and Fields is without question ahead of the curve.

The issue to me is now where he started but where he is now and is he getting better? Is he ahead of the curve?
And honestly, I can't think of a single metric or category where he hasn't shown improvement.

[G08]

I've brought this up before, but it was brushed aside like it was no big deal.

In part that figure must be down to that brutal game against the Browns. It should continue to drop as the season continues.

It will be interesting to see if they make any changes to the O line this Sunday having had the bye week to evaluate it. They should but I very much doubt they will.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/loser ... aderboards

[IE]

To me, a 9 sack game is a lot like a 5 or 6 TD game ... outliers that create more noise than information. Unless that is reflective of some sort of trend or persistent performance level, you have to throw it out when you're evaluating a situation - especially over short period of time where one large number skews the picture. Outliers can happen and really not be an accurate picture, or in any way predictive.

I mean sure, we could reduce our JF1 evaluation period to one game and declare that JF1 takes nine sacks a game. That would be statistically true and historically bad and make for some great fodder for funny articles (and "fire the coach" pitchfork and torch marches). But beyond that it isn't helpful.

This is one reason why footballoutsiders requires a minimum of 1500 attempts before they slot you into their leader board on QB sack %. IF JF1 continues to be sacked at a rate of 4 per game for the next 3 years then he'll indeed enter this list at #1 with a bullet. Personally? I don't see that happening. I'd actually bet a lot of money on that not happening.

I believe he'll have a lot of games over the next year or two where he's sacked 3-4 times because I think his competitive nature is to intentionally hold the ball & try to make things happen. But he'll learn to better pick his spots and I also believe he'll average between 2-3 sacks a game like most mobile QBs who try to extend plays with their athleticism.

All time percentage list:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm

Single game sack records list:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... e_game.htm

[dplank]

JMO, but I think this actually bolsters the point many were making at the start of the season in favor of playing Fields. JF1 has been sacked a lot, and the fear was that if he was sacked a lot it would somehow damage his psyche and slow his development. The whole "david carr" thing. The opposite has been true, as I and many others thought would be the case. Rather than folding like a lawn chair, the kid has "it" and has used his negative experiences to learn and improve. That's what great players do. He's not there yet, but he's showing that he has the correct mental attitude to be a great one. Playing him was absolutely the right move, and frankly I can't imagine anyone seeing it differently given what we've all seen happen over the last 6 weeks. His growth as a player has been astounding. And he's learning some lessons he simply can't learn from the bench, in particular that he can't escape every sack like he thinks he can, and that he really needs to protect himself better when taking off with the ball and stop taking those big hits downfield.

[Grizzled]

I'm hoping the rate goes down the rest of the season. Also, Fields seems incredibly tough and doesn't appear adversely affected (gun shy) from all the abuse he's gotten. But it does have to improve.

I'm not saying it doesn't need to improve, it does. But sack numbers for guys like Watson, Russ, Lamar, and Fields can be deceiving. And all sacks are not equal, a shoestring tackle as he tries to escape the pocket is a negative play but does not create any "David Carr" risk at all - like, literally none. And that was the context of the comment "we don't want to David Carr him" - we aren't. The blocking needs to improve, Fields needs to continue to improve, and accept the fact that he can't outrun everyone or break every tackle and protect himself better. All these things can be true without any "David Carr" risk. The hard hits he's taken the last few weeks have been on runs that weren't sacks, they were downfield tackles.

Good points. Fields got crushed by pure sacks in the Cleveland game but that's not happening near as much since then.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

JMO, but I think this actually bolsters the point many were making at the start of the season in favor of playing Fields. JF1 has been sacked a lot, and the fear was that if he was sacked a lot it would somehow damage his psyche and slow his development. The whole "david carr" thing. The opposite has been true, as I and many others thought would be the case. Rather than folding like a lawn chair, the kid has "it" and has used his negative experiences to learn and improve. That's what great players do. He's not there yet, but he's showing that he has the correct mental attitude to be a great one. Playing him was absolutely the right move, and frankly I can't imagine anyone seeing it differently given what we've all seen happen over the last 6 weeks. His growth as a player has been astounding. And he's learning some lessons he simply can't learn from the bench, in particular that he can't escape every sack like he thinks he can, and that he really needs to protect himself better when taking off with the ball and stop taking those big hits downfield.

I was watching a TTNL video the other day with journalist Mark Schofield of TouchdownWire/USA Today. He had this to say:

"I used to be one of those people who thought you could learn by watching, but the more I've studied quarterback play, the more I've sort of studied how we're transitioning young quarterbacks into the league, you gotta do it. You gotta get on the field and do it because, yeah, you can read out a defense from the sideline but until you're doing it under center or in the gun, until you're doing it with guys coming at you, until you're doing it when you have to do it on the fly and make a read and a throw with Aaron Donald breathing down your neck, it's not going to click in. There's so much muscle memory that you have to learn playing the position."

[IE]

Yeah, that has always been intuitively obvious to me - that learning by doing > watching. Watching is just not the same. The examples where guys watched and then came in and played well are sort of fallacies of correlation and causation, IMO.

The Cleveland game is an outlier and JF1 is going to spend the rest of the next 2 years dealing with scrutiny from those 9 sacks skewing his otherwise-in-a-normal-range sack rate. Thanks, Nagy!

[dave99]

I think some of us might be haunted by the ghost of Trubisky.
When Fields makes a great throw we think, yeah Mitch did that from time to time.
When he makes a mistake, takes a sack or throws an interception we think here we go again (how many involuntarily hold their breath when Fields throws into the end zone?) .
But Mitch is just a ghost, a scary figment that goes bump in the night.
He is not real.
Fields is.

[IE]

I think some of us might be haunted by the ghost of Trubisky.
When Fields makes a great throw we think, yeah Mitch did that from time to time.
When he makes a mistake, takes a sack or throws an interception we think here we go again (how many involuntarily hold their breath when Fields throws into the end zone?) .
But Mitch is just a ghost, a scary figment that goes bump in the night.
He is not real.
Fields is.

I know personally for me when JF1 is under center I have a lot of confidence and very little trepidation... like the least I've had with a Bear QB out there since really McMahon (whose confidence made people trust him even when he wasn't playing well).

When JF1 makes a deep throw I'm excited and have little fear - especially in the end zone where I feel like he's going to put the ball in a catchable spot (I am rather hoping the Bear receivers will hold up on their end). When I look at his next gen stats, he pops off the page... intended and completed air yards, aggressiveness, yards to the sticks. He's already in rare company he really is. I see no comparison to Mitch.

JF1 is the athletic, big-armed accurate passer Bear fans have always dreamed about.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/pass ... eted-yards

[grendel2000]

I still mostly worry about possible injury. Granted, the sack #s have been declining and his decision making is getting faster but I still feel like he's on the verge of getting killed FAR too often. There have been too many times he's sacked or wrapped up in ways that look ugly and make me worry about his legs.

[Grizzled]

Entirely in the area of speculation but, hey, that's what bye weeks are for. A perspective from a guy who informally asked several NFL scouts on the order of QBs drafted if 2021 were to take place. He said the thoughts were the Jets would take Fields #2 instead of Wilson and Mac Jones would go much higher:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/where-mac- ... 44462.html

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

The thing I get from Fields getting sacked or throwing picks is that every time he “fails” he grows. You can see it happening. He’s going to go back to work and cut that problem out.

The polar opposite to Mitch who used to be crushed every time he failed. You could see the confidence drain from him. He was scared to “go to work”, whereas Fields gets more determined every time.

When he gets sacked or takes a bad hit I feel him growing.

[IE]

The thing I get from Fields getting sacked or throwing picks is that every time he “fails” he grows. You can see it happening. He’s going to go back to work and cut that problem out.

This is exactly right.