Nagy Hot Seat

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The Cooler King
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You're dealing with a few low odds scenarios there, but 6 and a missed PAT leaves game tied. And theres theoretically very low odds there's enough time for two possessions.

I think that you could defend either strategy, but that they were apparently unprepared and also burned a TO is inexcusable. Also not sure given you were going for two I agree with taking the penalty on the play instead of the kick.
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Same here..No point to it..(no pun or maybe)..
Nagy needs a new place or occupation..
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The Cooler King wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:05 pm You're dealing with a few low odds scenarios there, but 6 and a missed PAT leaves game tied. And theres theoretically very low odds there's enough time for two possessions.

I think that you could defend either strategy, but that they were apparently unprepared and also burned a TO is inexcusable. Also not sure given you were going for two I agree with taking the penalty on the play instead of the kick.
The final irony being that they still couldn't get the ball into the end zone even from the 1 yard line!
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Music playing..I think no seat left for Mr Nagy...
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They won’t fire Nagy when we have a game 4 days later. We probably beat Detroit even as bad as we are, so they won’t fire him next week. Then even if we lose after that it’ll be too close to the end of the season so they’ll wait until the end of the year.
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Remember the “Fire Nagy” chants that first started to appear after the Chicago Bears lost in a blowout to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? That was just an appetizer for what was coming as it turns out. Facing a do-or-die game coming out of the bye week, Matt Nagy caught an unbelievable break. Just an hour before kickoff, it was revealed Baltimore Ravens start quarterback Lamar Jackson would not play due to an illness. The Bears instead would face backup Tyler Huntley, a former undrafted free agent with 16 career passes.


It should’ve been a statement game for Chicago. A big win to give them some momentum. Instead? Nagy watched the season and probably his career as a head coach go up in flames as the Ravens stunned them 16-13. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Justin Fields struggled and was knocked out with a rib injury. Then despite taking the lead with under two minutes on a crazy Andy Dalton bomb to Marquise Goodwin, the defense once against couldn’t hold their water. Huntley led a backbreaking TD drive aided by a brutal pass interference penalty by Kindle Vildor.
That was when the chants resurfaced, and they were much louder this time.

There is no arguing with that. What else needs to be said. The Bears have steadily declined since the head coach took over. Each of the past three seasons has involved losing streaks of at least four games. It has already reached five this year and could hit six before next week is even over. That is if he even manages to get that far. Rumors have persisted for some time that a bad enough loss might make the “Fire Nagy” movement a reality.

This would certainly qualify. Losing to a backup QB and a banged-up opponent on your home field despite having two weeks to prepare. Nagy is 0-4 off the bye week and still has one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Fans can’t take it anymore. Please just make it stop.


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dplank
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Lambert is a tool. He’s not wrong tho.
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The Cooler King
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:21 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:05 pm You're dealing with a few low odds scenarios there, but 6 and a missed PAT leaves game tied. And theres theoretically very low odds there's enough time for two possessions.

I think that you could defend either strategy, but that they were apparently unprepared and also burned a TO is inexcusable. Also not sure given you were going for two I agree with taking the penalty on the play instead of the kick.
The final irony being that they still couldn't get the ball into the end zone even from the 1 yard line!
My rambling thoughts on the odds. Going for two is basically a 0.5% chance to secure a win if your D doesn't hold and it ends on a Balt TD (1.5% chance he misses and then OT is 1/3 each way).

So depending on how you score your own 2 point success rate, Balts 2 point success rate, odds of a Balt quick score and your own odds of a quick possession long FG, I'm open to the idea that going for one produces better odds (particularly in a quick score scenario where a ballsy coach can influence it a bit on a broken play scenario - i.e. Let them score to leave time), but no TOs leave zero leverage in any crazy scenario you wanna play out. Going for two should probably be the default assumption though in that scenario. But if there were a circumstance (strongest K in game and really weak QB), I could at least begrudgingly accept an explanation for one even if I disagreed. But wasting the TO is just inexcusable.
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4 losses coming out of bye weeks, 3 to backup QBs.
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Grizzled wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:25 am 4 losses coming out of bye weeks, 3 to backup QBs.

I didn't realize about the backups.


That's a really, genuinely, truly impressive level of incompetence.
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With Dalton starting, the Bears likely beat Detroit. IF they somehow lose, it would be gross misconduct for George NOT to dismiss Nagy - and possibly DeSai along with him. I know...I know...the Bears have never fired a coach in season. However, Nagy looks completely defeated - why prolong his misery?

I'd make Tabor the interim HC and name Mike Pettine the DC and run out the string from there.
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How about going for it on 4th and 1 with a 1 point lead on the wrong side of the 50 against a first time starting QB? This is Coaching 101 and we don't seem to grasp that. Last week after Santos missed the long one at the end, O-Donell said that there was a 0% chance of making that kick. I mean, WTF is Nagy even doing? His desperation is making him coach even worse and I thought that was impossible 2 days ago.
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so the question has to be asked, wtf happened?

Nagy was hired, and his opening pressers seemed positive ... he talked about innovation and utilizing the talents of his players to their best advantage ... a good first impression ... then he led the Bears to an intriguing winning season and playoff spot, winning coach of the year as a result ... the Bears of course lost their playoff game on the infamous double doink, so we were all disappointed but encouraged by the year overall

and then, a lot of oddities ... strange and ineffective offense was the real warning sign ... Nagy was hired to bring the Bears offense into the modern era, even saying himself he was not brought in to run the I formation ... instead, the offense declined from his first year for multiple reasons ... and he never again captured the magic of his first year ... and looking back, that offensive magic wasn't actually great as the Bears had trouble finishing drives and scoring points ... instead of that being improved upon, it has only gotten more frustrating and ineffective, which pretty much describes the Bears offense to date

all evidence points to Nagy simply not being up to the task at the NFL level, and that his first season was a mirage with the seasons since showing his true abilities ... a stubborn coach who resists change rather than embracing it ... an annoying coach who thinks he is smarter than everyone else but has no evidence to show that being even close to true ... and the most damning, a coach who seems unwilling or unable to actually create an offense that utilizes the players he has, which is against his own happy talk introductory presser ... and a Bears team that stumbles and bumbles along while their coach keeps telling us how close they are to greatness when everyone but him can see the truth

the Baltimore loss brings it all to a head ... Bears had an extra week to prepare, and then had the good fortune to be facing a backup QB ... the defense held their ground all the way until the final 2 minutes of the game, but the offense just never really established anything and were lucky to have scored at all

Nagy as an offensive guru simply is not the case and even the offensive stats of his magical first year work against him

so he is a pretender trying to talk his way into being something he clearly is not and the Bears need to close the door on the Nagy era and move on, the sooner the better
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Nagy's a head coach who has had 4 different starting QBs in 4 years and has been unable to have success with any of them!

It hasn't mattered if the QB was a highly drafted first round pick or an experienced veteran (even one who actually won a Super Bowl in a supposedly similar scheme) the offense has stunk.

Nagy's the common denominator. He's got to go. If they lose on Thursday there should be no delay. Get rid of him and give the interim replacement a long week to prepare for the next game.
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Nagy is toast.
We know it. He knows it. We'll have a new HC next year.

I get the impulse to fire him immediately, but I don't see what that actually accomplishes other than to make folks feel better.
Tabor and Lazor aren't going to turn the team around.

I would wager that keeping Nagy until the end of the year, then separating more amicably once the season ends makes the Bears appear a better option to potential HC candidates.
Firing people mid-season IMO comes across as impulsive, punitive, and pointless. Keep it classy Chicago.
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I sincerely think that Nagy will be a good college coach ... not a Nick Saban type of Savant, but a Pat Fitzgerald type who runs a good program and makes an academic-first average to below average program competitive .... like at a Vanderbilt, Duke, Boston College, etc.

Rumors remain strong that Pace is going to get "kicked upstairs" and Nagy will be the sacrificial lamb - but this will never happen during the season. I'm kind of sick of listening to end of season management pressers while sitting in my car somewhere.
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Burl wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:56 am Nagy is toast.
We know it. He knows it. We'll have a new HC next year.

I get the impulse to fire him immediately, but I don't see what that actually accomplishes other than to make folks feel better.
Tabor and Lazor aren't going to turn the team around.

I would wager that keeping Nagy until the end of the year, then separating more amicably once the season ends makes the Bears appear a better option to potential HC candidates.
Firing people mid-season IMO comes across as impulsive, punitive, and pointless. Keep it classy Chicago.
Better evaluation of offensive weapons hopefully.

But if he can manage to "keep the locker room" I understand that's a point in favor of not firing.

But since they can interview during the last two weeks of the season now, that's a point in favor of calling it early. However if there's a chance that Pace might not be the one hiring the next coach, that would obviously negate a great deal of that benefit.
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Burl wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:56 am Nagy is toast.
We know it. He knows it. We'll have a new HC next year.

I get the impulse to fire him immediately, but I don't see what that actually accomplishes other than to make folks feel better.
Tabor and Lazor aren't going to turn the team around.

I would wager that keeping Nagy until the end of the year, then separating more amicably once the season ends makes the Bears appear a better option to potential HC candidates.
Firing people mid-season IMO comes across as impulsive, punitive, and pointless. Keep it classy Chicago.
Firing Nagy before the season ends isn't about 'turning the team around', but about taking an opportunity to get an idea of how much the team's issues are due to his incompetence. If young players start performing better without him around then the team can go into the offseason with a greater degree of confidence and the team would be more attractive to top head coaching candidates who may get more than one job opportunity.

Obviously there's no guarantee that players would play better without Nagy, but at least it's a possibility. We've seen enough to know the standard under Nagy and it's nowhere near good enough. This team has to do everything it can to figure out which players will be part of the future and which they need to jettison. Having Nagy continue isn't going to help with that in the slightest. With no first round pick, potentially winning a meaningless game or two is irrelevant. It's the youngsters on the current roster that matter and they're not best served by keeping Nagy around while the team plays out the string.
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Burl wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:56 am
I get the impulse to fire him immediately, but I don't see what that actually accomplishes other than to make folks feel better.

Keep it classy Chicago.
Trotting out a team doomed to lose because of the HC seems like the opposite of classy to me. Fielding a team that is always prepared and competitive because of it's organization and coaching leadership.... to me, that is classy. Teams that go out there & prepare and compete with backup QBs and overcome injuries even to key players - that is a classy organization.

What can be gained from shit-canning Nagy right now? Sending a clear message to the players that the organization wants to win & will do what it takes. It may or may not make the fans feel better - but it will give the player something that appears to be waning... "hope".
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NFL players aren't children. They understand that it's a results-driven league and that repeated poor showing will lead to replacement. You don't have to "send a message' to let them know that you'd prefer to win rather than lose. They see coaches and teammates come/go every year. They saw it with Mitch. They understand change is on the horizon and that they're all playing for their jobs.

I suppose there's some potential as noted to evaluate the performance of certain players with someone else calling the plays, but we already have someone else calling the plays. It's not like we can install an entirely new system mid-season. Just my opinion, but I'd rate this as a negligible benefit of firing Nagy.

The benefit of keeping him? I feel it suggests and promotes organizational stability. If Nagy had completely lost the locker room as Trestman had, I'd be a bit more sympathetic to the idea but even then I was against it (I think). I feel that although he isn't performing well, he seems a good guy who works hard, treats his players respectfully, and is likely a good person himself who should be treated with respect and dignity. I feel mid-season firings should be saved for guys that commit crimes or otherwise can no longer reasonably represent the team.
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I don't think we have to be a child to be hopeful. Will adults persist and do their job in a bad environment? Sure. Will adults phone it in if they find themselves in situation fubar? Yes - they will.

I want to watch a team that is excited about turning the corner starting with the next game. No way they're doing that under Nagy. Like Foles said in the Cleveland game for us all to see... "the offense is not working". They know it. There is plenty of evidence of players having an understanding that what they are being asked to do under Nagy won't work.

I think the Bear organization is a source of concern for prospective coaches. Doing something they haven't done before may very well be needed to telegraph to prospective coaches that they're going to be serious about winning.
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IMHO...

* The Bear job, even with a bad roster and limited draft capital, will continue to be a coveted destination for prospective head coaches. In addition to being the NFL's charter franchise in the league's 3rd largest market, they have young QB with (albeit still unrealized) considerable upside. This will be true whether they dump Nagy in season or after the season.

* While I realize it won't happen, if the Bears lose to the Lions, an already forlorn Matt Nagy is likely to slip further into the abyss. Letting Nagy go after Thursday (should they lose) is arguably showing him some empathy. The schedule gets markedly more challenging - the losses figure to be REALLY ugly moving forward.
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I agree with IE.

Accepting failure in any organisation is like a cancer. It grows, it spreads and it leads to the downfall of the organisation.

You have a culture which accepts failure - that’s very difficult to change with evolution - you need “revolution”.
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I heard a talking head (not sure who it was, memory is not good) say it best yesterday, don't hire a good, great coordinator to be the next head coach. Hire someone who is and will be a great head coach. Hire the guy who can put a great staff together. Hiring the up and coming coordinators has not worked for this team.

I agree. Hire the guy who can be the head coach. Not the head coach and coordinator. Hire the guy who can bring in those up and coming coordinators. The HC, let him be responsible for clock management, praising the team, putting the hammer down, making suggestions to OC and or DC based on what he sees, being the one guy who knows the personnel and who won't be afraid to tell the GM that a certain guy sucks and bring in someone else.
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Another point about Nagy is his press conference post game.

He says “we just can’t finish the game”.

Matt, do you ACTUALLY watch the tape? You know, when you’re trying to find the “why’s” and figuring out “where we’re at”. Do you ACTUALLY do that?

If you did you’d note we are being out played and out scored im almost every game. Not Detroit, we had that game, but the others were car crashes.

We don’t know how to start games (shut out in first half yesterday) we don’t know how to finish games (surrendering slender leads) and we’re not that good in the middle.

This is WAY beyond knowing “how to finish the game”.

I’m a total novice and even I recognise that.
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AZ_Bearfan wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:58 am How about going for it on 4th and 1 with a 1 point lead on the wrong side of the 50 against a first time starting QB? This is Coaching 101 and we don't seem to grasp that. Last week after Santos missed the long one at the end, O-Donell said that there was a 0% chance of making that kick. I mean, WTF is Nagy even doing? His desperation is making him coach even worse and I thought that was impossible 2 days ago.
I think I'll see your fireable offense and raise you a rudderless fool... I am actually thinking he went for it in response to the crowd - I really think he did. When the crowd booed loudly when they showed punt. And Nagy went through some strange hysterics about having his headset not working. And then he changed his call to appease the crowd. And it failed.

I can't remember the play but was that really Monty taking a shotgun snap in the wildcat on 4th and 1?
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You fire him now (or after TGiving) to get the ball rolling on next year. Primarily finding a new HC, a process you can now start earlier than before. It’s not about feeling better, it’s about closure for the players and org and expeditiously moving to the next era of Bears football. It doesn’t pay to drag your feet, get going now and show urgency. Make the shift mentally to “the rest of this year is about developing for next year not saving Nagys job”.
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Ditka’s dictaphone wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:52 pm Another point about Nagy is his press conference post game.

He says “we just can’t finish the game”.

Matt, do you ACTUALLY watch the tape? You know, when you’re trying to find the “why’s” and figuring out “where we’re at”. Do you ACTUALLY do that?

If you did you’d note we are being out played and out scored im almost every game. Not Detroit, we had that game, but the others were car crashes.

We don’t know how to start games (shut out in first half yesterday) we don’t know how to finish games (surrendering slender leads) and we’re not that good in the middle.

This is WAY beyond knowing “how to finish the game”.

I’m a total novice and even I recognise that.
If Lamar Jackson was playing the game wouldn't have been close ..... the Bears would have lost by three touchdowns and the moral victories would be hard to come by.
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