The "Gardner Minshew" Memorial Thread of Whatever

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Against the Lions last weekend, the Mississippi Mudflap got some playing time to shake the rust off - going 2 for 2 for 11 yards while handing off to Gainwell 12 times and burning the clock for the entire 4th quarter on two FG scoring drives. That's right - you can score 24 points on the lions just by handing off the ball every single time.
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The Mississippi Mudflap ... starting today for the Eggles againt the Jet. The Legend continues...
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IE wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:52 pm The Mississippi Mudflap ... starting today for the Eggles againt the Jet. The Legend continues...
Granted - it is the jets. But 11-12 for 166 and 2 TDs in the first half is pretty decent for a QB nobody wants.
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The Marshall Plan
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IE wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:16 pm
IE wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:52 pm The Mississippi Mudflap ... starting today for the Eggles againt the Jet. The Legend continues...
Granted - it is the jets. But 11-12 for 166 and 2 TDs in the first half is pretty decent for a QB nobody wants.
And / or too stupid to not trade for given the cost of a 6th round pick.

Good thing we've got Carrot Top out there kicking ass and taking names today at $10M per year. Not to mention the $25M third stringer Foles.
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He finished 20/25 for 242 yards and 2 TDs for a 133.7 rating.

Now if he can put up those sorts of numbers against better teams than the Jets...
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Gardner was seen driving his '77 Firebird "Smokey and the Bandit" clone..soon looking for the original after his well deserved PAY DAY.
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He would suck here. Nagy.
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:54 pm He finished 20/25 for 242 yards and 2 TDs for a 133.7 rating.

Now if he can put up those sorts of numbers against better teams than the Jets...
That's a fair point.

Here's what I will say.

Andy Dalton gets $10M to play like that yesterday.

Minshew cost a 6th round pick and is still on a rookie deal.
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:16 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:54 pm He finished 20/25 for 242 yards and 2 TDs for a 133.7 rating.

Now if he can put up those sorts of numbers against better teams than the Jets...
That's a fair point.

Here's what I will say.

Andy Dalton gets $10M to play like that yesterday.

Minshew cost a 6th round pick and is still on a rookie deal.
Not just a rookie deal, $850,000 this year and $965,000 next. I'm fairly sure you could have also convinced him to sign a short extension without having to up those numbers much, even just a year. The odds of him being meaningfully worse than Dalton were virtually non existent, it's absolutely insane to me that this wouldn't be seen as a better option, even if the trade had cost a 4th. Plus if he does continue to play at the level his Jacksonville numbers suggested but with more wins with our defence, well then you have a hugely tradeable asset or the best backup in football for a couple/few years.

Signing cast off QBs that are actually good enough to start could be *the* wrinkle for success over the next few years, if only a brave GM will go for it.
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Unfortunately, you know who had "say" in the QB acquisition? The Badvisor (TM).
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malk wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:37 am
The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:16 am

That's a fair point.

Here's what I will say.

Andy Dalton gets $10M to play like that yesterday.

Minshew cost a 6th round pick and is still on a rookie deal.
Not just a rookie deal, $850,000 this year and $965,000 next. I'm fairly sure you could have also convinced him to sign a short extension without having to up those numbers much, even just a year. The odds of him being meaningfully worse than Dalton were virtually non existent, it's absolutely insane to me that this wouldn't be seen as a better option, even if the trade had cost a 4th. Plus if he does continue to play at the level his Jacksonville numbers suggested but with more wins with our defence, well then you have a hugely tradeable asset or the best backup in football for a couple/few years.

Signing cast off QBs that are actually good enough to start could be *the* wrinkle for success over the next few years, if only a brave GM will go for it.
The pisser about Minshew is that he was only traded because JAX drafted Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer wanted his guy.

Minshew is a legit QB who continues to get better.

He put up GOOD numbers playing for the shittiest team in the league.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... nsGa00.htm

But Minshew probably doesn't fit some overly-analytical prototype for a QB. Who knows?

Just imagine how much better off we'd be if we had Minshew who is actually competent. It would take some of the pressure off the whole Start Fields thing because if you're winning you can hold that argument off. Or when Fields gets hurt you don't have a total shit show like we had yesterday.

It's just one of the reasons why the Bears will always be the Bears and the rest of the league passes them by.
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The Jets point is still extremely, extremely important
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RichH55 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:31 am The Jets point is still extremely, extremely important
Why?

He's played in 25 games now and in only 3 he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. 16 games with zero interceptions, career QB rating of 94.4. If Fields had come out with 21 TDs to 6 interceptions as a rookie people would be literally exploding with joy in Chicago.

And I'm not even saying he'll be a great player but how a player on a rookie deal, with lots of starting experience and a history of looking after the ball, got barely any interest... baffling.
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malk wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:21 pm
RichH55 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:31 am The Jets point is still extremely, extremely important
Why?

He's played in 25 games now and in only 3 he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. 16 games with zero interceptions, career QB rating of 94.4. If Fields had come out with 21 TDs to 6 interceptions as a rookie people would be literally exploding with joy in Chicago.

And I'm not even saying he'll be a great player but how a player on a rookie deal, with lots of starting experience and a history of looking after the ball, got barely any interest... baffling.
QB Rating does not matter in the least and people should never use it. No offense. It's absolute garbage.

I actually subscribe to the Minshew is good school - Wanted him this offseason (even before I knew the price was only a 6th). AND I did think it was baffling the lack of interest (though perhaps telling? I dont know - No one in the NFL pays me now do they?)

But all that said - The Jets are a terrible, terrible Football team - So I think that Data point tells you essentially nothing.

I would also be surprised if Philly gives him a long leash - If they play him 2 more games the 6th becomes a 5th
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The Marshall Plan wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:23 am
malk wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:37 am

Not just a rookie deal, $850,000 this year and $965,000 next. I'm fairly sure you could have also convinced him to sign a short extension without having to up those numbers much, even just a year. The odds of him being meaningfully worse than Dalton were virtually non existent, it's absolutely insane to me that this wouldn't be seen as a better option, even if the trade had cost a 4th. Plus if he does continue to play at the level his Jacksonville numbers suggested but with more wins with our defence, well then you have a hugely tradeable asset or the best backup in football for a couple/few years.

Signing cast off QBs that are actually good enough to start could be *the* wrinkle for success over the next few years, if only a brave GM will go for it.
The pisser about Minshew is that he was only traded because JAX drafted Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer wanted his guy.

Minshew is a legit QB who continues to get better.

He put up GOOD numbers playing for the shittiest team in the league.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... nsGa00.htm

But Minshew probably doesn't fit some overly-analytical prototype for a QB. Who knows?

Just imagine how much better off we'd be if we had Minshew who is actually competent. It would take some of the pressure off the whole Start Fields thing because if you're winning you can hold that argument off. Or when Fields gets hurt you don't have a total shit show like we had yesterday.

It's just one of the reasons why the Bears will always be the Bears and the rest of the league passes them by.

whoever was doing the evaluating of Minshew for the Bears apparently couldn't get past the mullet so gave a quicker than necessary thumbs down?

it does seem odd the Bears would cough up $10 mil for a career mid level talent with a known ceiling but not be willing to take a flyer on a younger less expensive option who still has the potential to get better ... not quite the same deal with Mike Glennon but there are similarities, the main one being over paying for a QB of question

might be nice to be the guy who leases cars to the Bears ... charge them for a Mercedes 500 SL and then watch them smile with glee when their new Ford Fiesta is delivered
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I think at the very least we can see some success from Minshew and conclude that Dalton is/was nothing special and he didn't need to be signed ASAP. If Pace was actually bold he would have waited until after the draft and taken from the remaining options.
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The Dalton thing very much seemed like them trying to recreate Alex Smith in KC IMHO
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crueltyabc wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:33 am I think at the very least we can see some success from Minshew and conclude that Dalton is/was nothing special and he didn't need to be signed ASAP. If Pace was actually bold he would have waited until after the draft and taken from the remaining options.
There is no guarantee that we were going to be able to draft a QB high though. Nor that Jags were going to let him go and cheaply

You would have been ok potentially going into the Season with Nick Foles and no other QB?

Picking from the leftovers at a position that people overpay and overdraft already - Or trying to trade for a QB when people KNOW you need one?

This is a poor process
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RichH55 wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:33 am The Dalton thing very much seemed like them trying to recreate Alex Smith in KC IMHO
Yeah, signing Dalton smacks very much of that 'collaboration' of Pace getting Nagy who he wanted. When he went after Russell Wilson and failed (thank goodness) Pace turned very quickly to Dalton.
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My problem is that Nagy only seems to be able to copy what other people have done, he isn't his own man. And when he has to stand on his own he fails. I supported his hire early so I'm not wagging fingers here, I got it wrong too, but with benefit of hindsight I can see clearly now that he was just a byproduct of Andy Reid's success and not a key contributor of making Andy Reid successful. I'm very much against what I'll call "clone hires" now. Trying to copy the Alex Smith thing is just another example of a copycat coach who can't draw on his own without having tracing paper.

BTW - does anyone remember tracing paper? Is that still a thing or am I just a thousand years old?
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dplank wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:51 am BTW - does anyone remember tracing paper? Is that still a thing or am I just a thousand years old?
We certainly had it over here dplank. In fact when I started secondary school at age 11, the toilet paper was basically the same thing! My nan used to have it too. Revolting stuff to wipe your backside with. :scared:
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dplank wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:51 am BTW - does anyone remember tracing paper? Is that still a thing or am I just a thousand years old?
It's not still a thing

You're old

I remember purple mimeographs

I think Yogi is older than all of us combined
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RichH55 wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:57 am
malk wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:21 pm

Why?

He's played in 25 games now and in only 3 he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. 16 games with zero interceptions, career QB rating of 94.4. If Fields had come out with 21 TDs to 6 interceptions as a rookie people would be literally exploding with joy in Chicago.

And I'm not even saying he'll be a great player but how a player on a rookie deal, with lots of starting experience and a history of looking after the ball, got barely any interest... baffling.
QB Rating does not matter in the least and people should never use it. No offense. It's absolute garbage.

I actually subscribe to the Minshew is good school - Wanted him this offseason (even before I knew the price was only a 6th). AND I did think it was baffling the lack of interest (though perhaps telling? I dont know - No one in the NFL pays me now do they?)

But all that said - The Jets are a terrible, terrible Football team - So I think that Data point tells you essentially nothing.

I would also be surprised if Philly gives him a long leash - If they play him 2 more games the 6th becomes a 5th
That's fair on QB rating. I was using it as a lazy shorthand to show that he's not awful but it barely does that. What I love about him is that he knew how to look after the ball from the start. Well, more fumbles than you'd like in his first year but that was sorted out in year two. And it wasn't because he wasn't throwing touchdowns either which itself wasn't down to stellar talent around him. Plus you have 3 of his 6 wins in 2019 coming on game winning drives so he even had some clutch about him as a rookie. That's an incredible base to build on! Now that isn't to say he hasn't been a conservative QB and better analysts than I may be looking at this traits with doubt that he can push the ball more without it all going to hell. But at that point you've basically got the best backup in football. Someone who can hold the fort, protect the ball and yet not be an absolute zero on offence.

So for me I'd have been looking to build the talent around him to push up that TD% from 4.9 in 2020 to over 6.0 whilst keeping the interceptions down. At that point he's a top ten QB with potential to be elite. And for what, a 6th and less than $1m per year. The risk/reward there is just off the charts.
RichH55 wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:35 am
crueltyabc wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:33 am I think at the very least we can see some success from Minshew and conclude that Dalton is/was nothing special and he didn't need to be signed ASAP. If Pace was actually bold he would have waited until after the draft and taken from the remaining options.
There is no guarantee that we were going to be able to draft a QB high though. Nor that Jags were going to let him go and cheaply

You would have been ok potentially going into the Season with Nick Foles and no other QB?

Picking from the leftovers at a position that people overpay and overdraft already - Or trying to trade for a QB when people KNOW you need one?

This is a poor process
I mean, would I have been happy with Foles and little else rather than Dalton and Foles? You're not winning anything meaningful in either scenario so you might as well have the extra cap space and do a soft rebuild with likely high draft picks. I definitely would have scoured the league for a flyer at QB, a high ceiling kid to take a punt on rather than Foles doing little but you tell ownership and the fans that you didn't like the options that came up at QB in the draft and decided to build for the future with the picks you do have. Honestly selling rebuilds isn't that hard at the moment, fans like the promise of fresh newness around the corner.
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Given the dislike of passer rating some have, I hesitate to mention this nugget but...
Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew’s 133.7 passer rating against the Jets on Sunday in place of Jalen Hurts is better than any Bears quarterback’s rating in the last three seasons. Minshew, who had thrown just two passes all season, completed his first 11 passes and was 20-of-25 for the game, for 242 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Bears’ best single-game passer rating this season is 93.2 against the Raiders (with Justin Fields starting and Dalton completing his only pass). The league average is 91.3.

Minshew was a sixth-round draft pick by the Jaguars in 2019 and had a 91.2 passer rating as a rookie (21 touchdowns, six interceptions) under coordinator John DeFilippo, who is the current Bears quarterbacks coach.

(Courtesy of Mark Potash of the Sun Times: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2021 ... -a-message)
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Minshew is another example of overanalyzing. The guy has a winner's mentality.
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Grizzled wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:19 am Minshew is another example of overanalyzing. The guy has a winner's mentality.
so I guess comparing him to McMahon would be appropriate

McMahon never had the flashiest of stats but the team ALWAYS performed better when he was the one taking snaps ... and he did have some memorable games and moments ... McMahon was magical at times and had that hard to define "it" factor

Minshew could likely follow that similar path ... maybe not the flashiest of stats but capable of memorable games and moments

plus, when you see him interact with his dad after this win, how can you not like him?

Minshew's postgame moment with dad is hilarious, perfect
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HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:41 pm Given the dislike of passer rating some have, I hesitate to mention this nugget but...
Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew’s 133.7 passer rating against the Jets on Sunday in place of Jalen Hurts is better than any Bears quarterback’s rating in the last three seasons. Minshew, who had thrown just two passes all season, completed his first 11 passes and was 20-of-25 for the game, for 242 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Bears’ best single-game passer rating this season is 93.2 against the Raiders (with Justin Fields starting and Dalton completing his only pass). The league average is 91.3.

Minshew was a sixth-round draft pick by the Jaguars in 2019 and had a 91.2 passer rating as a rookie (21 touchdowns, six interceptions) under coordinator John DeFilippo, who is the current Bears quarterbacks coach.

(Courtesy of Mark Potash of the Sun Times: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2021 ... -a-message)
It isn't that the data point (pass rating) can't be useful. It is when people pretend that it is always useful or use it to imply something that isn't true. Just like when a coach's winning percentage can be a useful measuring stick. But then sometimes it isn't - like with Nagy.

They way you used passer rating here is useful... individual game ratings comparisons or using a rating as a benchmark for comparative performance (e.g. league or career average leaders). But oftentimes the use of passer rating AVERAGEs is not only not useful - but misleading. We went around a bit on this on MItch's stats (maybe in this very thread - but I'm too lazy to look LOL). The reason passer rating is oftentimes not useful is when it is used as an average it allows a small percentage of very high rated games against bums to be used as air cover for an unacceptably high number of horrible rated games against decent teams it can skew the picture. So oftentimes other context is needed.

Minshew is a great example. In his 24 games as a starter he has only 8 that are below a 90 (league average) rating. Then he has only 6 below 80 and only 2 below 70. His floor is amazingly high given his circumstances... he is quite literally an above-average QB in his typical performance - 75% of the time. Some have said "well those numbers are a function of garbage time on a losing team"... but a look at his stats (splits) disproves that. He's an early starter and his best quarters are first and third.

Mitch Trubisky is a great example of average passer rating being highly misleading. Mitch has almost 60% of his games with a below 90 rating (below average). Then he drops off a cliff even more from then. He has 23 games below 80 rating (40%!), 13 below 70 (24% - a quarter of all his games!) and then 4 below 50 (something Minshew never did once, on the Jags). Mitch's career 87 rating looks like he plays just below league average, if you use his career average and take the stance that he's at least an average QB. But that is not remotely true. Even if you use individual year averages it is misleading. In his best year '18 he had only 6 games above league average and 8 games below the league average, 6 below 80 and 3 below 70.... simply brutal. He made the probowl as an alternate and that was fine - because we were assured he was going to take the next step in Nagy 2.0 starting in '19. Right?

Anyway that's my objection to using "passer rating"... it is HOW it is used and what is it being used to imply. It isn't always bad and it isn't always good. It is just another data point in a bigger picture.
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Passer Rating is a terrible, terrible stat.

Every bit of context goes out the window with it. Every bit.

Matt Schuab is better than (WAY better) than Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw according to it.

We are in a golden era of stats - Don't use the one from the dark ages.
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I'm confused. With Fields falling into our laps, why do we care so much about Minshew?

Is this thread more about Pace and his handling of the QB position? Would any of you want Minshew over Fields?
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Hema2.0 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:18 pm I'm confused. With Fields falling into our laps, why do we care so much about Minshew?

Is this thread more about Pace and his handling of the QB position? Would any of you want Minshew over Fields?
I think the question is:

Would you take this trade on Fields:

Minshew, Top 5 Pick, Top 15 Pick last year

I assume most would not take that
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