Pace hot seat

[RichH55]

Yes I believe thats the one. And its all somewhat (Alot?!) subjective - Sure.

But the notion that the OL has been "terrible" - Just is not true

[dplank]

The OL was terrible, absolutely 100% terrible, for the first quarter of the season. It has moved from dreadful to just "below average" now as it has clearly improved as the season has worn on and Peters got his legs under him. Despite the improvement, we are still a long ways away from having a top tier line as we don't have a single player that would be considered pro bowl level. The fact that a 40 year old guy that can't outrun Steven Hawking is our best lineman is an indictment, not a selling point, for this unit. I struggle to understand why as the individual pieces seem fine, but as a unit they don't get it done. Something isn't right with Whitehair/Daniels, I can't put my finger on it but they are not the players we think they are or the results would be different. It's not all Mustipher.

Narratives do need to change though, this unit right now is vastly better than the one who got whooped so badly by Cleveland and Tampa. Narratives need to change on Fields also IMO, his sack numbers for the past 2 months (which coincide with improved line play) have been pretty normal. His narrative should not be "he holds the ball too long" anymore.

The offense is clearly broken, has been since Nagy. So it seems wise to wait and see how people perform when the next staff comes in. Unfortunately, we have to decide on Daniels this off season so we won't get that benefit.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I struggle to understand why as the individual pieces seem fine, but as a unit they don't get it done. Something isn't right with Whitehair/Daniels, I can't put my finger on it but they are not the players we think they are or the results would be different.
...

The offense is clearly broken, has been since Nagy.

I think you answered your own question.

[Grizzled]

The Bears aren't going to stumble into an Ozzie Newsome in a new GM's first year on the job. It's a matter of building a strong management team, developing a culture which doesn't settle for "good enough". It could have a President of Football Ops and a GM (which I'd prefer) or just a GM and Head Coach.

[malk]

Hub said on the Score this week that he isn't hearing anything from Halas Hall sources about any significant sentiment for Pace to go

I don't think he's going anywhere. I'm not even sure he's going to get bumped up.

Again, I'll share his 'hits':

Draft Picks and Free Agents

Goldman
Amos (thriving in GB)
Floyd (thriving in LA)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski (paid by LV)
Howard
DHC
Jackson
Cohen
Roquan Smith
Daniels
Nichols
Montgomery
Kmet (early)
Jaylon Johnson
Gipson (early)
Mooney
Fields
Jenkins/Borom (way too early)
Herbert

Trevathan
Hicks
Robinson (I guess...)
Khalil Mack Trade
Quinn


Over the course of 7 seasons, including overhauling Halas Hall, this isn't bad

Any player that isn't on the roster and didn't contribute to even a single playoff win can't be considered a hit. Drafting isn't much use if you can't keep hold of them when it matters. Then of the players that are still here, how many of the draftees are genuine difference makers? Smith, Montgomery absolutely. Johnson looks great at this early stage. Jackson and Goldman earned their contracts but look a little shaky now, plus Cohen was a nice piece pre injury. After that you've got middling starters in Whitehair, Daniels and Nichols. Kmet looks bad but Mooney looks good. Fields, Jenkins and Borom have done virtually nothing so far and can't be considered hits.

Free agency is harder to score but those expensive players haven't contributed to a single playoff win so, essentially, they've had some nice individual seasons and nothing else. That's more on Pace than them but since we're looking at Pace, ugh!

[malk]

He had 3 years of rebuilding and 4 years of trying to win.
They ought to balance out.
They don't, because he did a bad job.
Just the 4 years of "pedal to the metal, go for it!" alone only has 1 winning season, 2 .500, and 1 losing, and just barely above .500 for those 4 years. That's a pathetic payoff for 3 years of building.

Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?

Me.

[G08]

I don't think he's going anywhere. I'm not even sure he's going to get bumped up.

Again, I'll share his 'hits':

Draft Picks and Free Agents

Goldman
Amos (thriving in GB)
Floyd (thriving in LA)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski (paid by LV)
Howard
DHC
Jackson
Cohen
Roquan Smith
Daniels
Nichols
Montgomery
Kmet (early)
Jaylon Johnson
Gipson (early)
Mooney
Fields
Jenkins/Borom (way too early)
Herbert

Trevathan
Hicks
Robinson (I guess...)
Khalil Mack Trade
Quinn


Over the course of 7 seasons, including overhauling Halas Hall, this isn't bad

Any player that isn't on the roster and didn't contribute to even a single playoff win can't be considered a hit. Drafting isn't much use if you can't keep hold of them when it matters. Then of the players that are still here, how many of the draftees are genuine difference makers? Smith, Montgomery absolutely. Johnson looks great at this early stage. Jackson and Goldman earned their contracts but look a little shaky now, plus Cohen was a nice piece pre injury. After that you've got middling starters in Whitehair, Daniels and Nichols. Kmet looks bad but Mooney looks good. Fields, Jenkins and Borom have done virtually nothing so far and can't be considered hits.

Free agency is harder to score but those expensive players haven't contributed to a single playoff win so, essentially, they've had some nice individual seasons and nothing else. That's more on Pace than them but since we're looking at Pace, ugh!

I don't think a playoff qualifier is fair or relevant, honestly. By your account, Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers weren't 'hits'.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Any player that isn't on the roster and didn't contribute to even a single playoff win can't be considered a hit. Drafting isn't much use if you can't keep hold of them when it matters.

I totally disagree.

If you draft well you can't afford to keep every player beyond their rookie contract. It doesn't mean they weren't good picks. We got 4 good years out of Adrian Amos as a starter. For a 5th round pick that's tremendous value. We got good value from the fourth round pick spent on Kwiatkoski too. He was a starter-quality backup who was very solid when he had to come in (22 starts). Not every player, especially those taken later in the draft is going to be a Pro Bowler. If I recall correctly both helped net compensation picks.

Floyd was much-maligned for not being the sack-machine fans expected of a top 10 pick, but he's shown that he was capable of being just that in LA. Why wasn't he more productive in Chicago? Perhaps because of the way he was being used. His sack production prior to Mack's arrival wasn't bad (7 in 12 games as a rookie and 4.5 in 10 games in his second year including safeties in both). He was expected to feast opposite Mack but didn't. Perhaps that was because he was asked to drop back in coverage more and because he played the vast majority of snaps on the right edge because Mack prefers the left. In LA he appears to play more on the left. Regardless, he has shown that he clearly has the talent Pace recognised him having.

As to the second part of your criterion for a 'hit', having to contribute to even a single playoff win, you realise that would exclude both Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus neither of whom ever even played in a playoff game?

Edit: I see G08 beat me to the punch on the last point!

[The Cooler King]

As much as I constantly rag on the needlessly pointless playing of titles, this was, fwiw, my attempt at a org restructure that I think is pretty minor, but looks more substantial and plays on some positive fan/PR angles. I had posted elsewhere, but not here I think

Keys to me that make it different that typical "Bears should hire a football president" proposal is that it requires largely on internal movement, and doesn't totally eliminate Phillips. Even still, it's maybe a bit optimistic on the Champ Kelly angle, more realistic would prob bump that pedigree down a touch.
-----

Leading up to week 15/16, fire Nagy and Pace. Announce that Cliff Stein will be named as President of the team and Ted Phillips will retain the CEO role as well as being named CEO of "Arlington Park Development LLC" which will focus on the Bears stadium project and development of the rest of the Arlington Park project. Champ Kelly as interim GM and whoever as interim HC, who cares. Ted can also announce a small team of proven sports execs who have been part of major stadium deals who are hired for the stadium development.

Further, Cliff Stein and George McCaskey will work with a consultant to immediately begin the hiring process for both GM and HC. They can start interviewing Head Coach prospects the last two weeks this year. GM candidates they still have to wait on I think, though they could obviously start the search with any possible GM candidates who are not currently employed by an NFL team (Rick Smith? Thomas Dimitroff?). They could obviously also interview Champ Kelly as an internal candidate. Let's just say hypothetically they decide to hire Rick Smith and for gooey PR purposes give him the fancy title of Senior Vice President of Football Operations. He'd then be ready to go pretty early on in the hiring cycle and finish up the head coach search. He hires Greg Roman as soon as the Ravens are done with their playoff run. He retains a healthy amount of the former FO staff with a promotion for Champ Kelly to "General Manager". It won't be a true GM role that you can block him from other GM roles, but maybe one where he has slightly elevated responsibilities (Rick Smith is a retread GM and single father to 3 teenagers, so its slightly believable he might give Champ greater responsibility than a typical number 2 role, along with a nice pay raise to keep him content and not seeking other jobs). But it would ultimately still be Rick's vision and Rick's coach, as well as bringing in some of his own guys to replace/supplement some of Pace's old FO staff (let's assume Lucas and a few others depart but many scouts stay on).

So you're left with Stein in Phillips old role (from a fan standpoint at least - we don't have to see his face anymore unless it's stadium related). And an experienced GM and hot internal GM candidate. From a practical perspective I don't think it makes a huge difference from the status quo (Smith is just Pace with a fancy title, and Champ is still Champ with a fancy title). But it kind of plays into some positive PR angles that sound like we're beefing up the football minds, as well as putting Phillips out of sight out of mind. If the family hasn't sold by the time the stadium deal is complete, he likely retires into the night eventually.

If you want to go for a little bit more meatball fan service, chose any well liked former Bear and name them as a Senior Special advisor to the Chairman (George). Heck, pick 2 or 3 of them. Just to give some feel that there's extra "football guys" with some input for George and Cliff. Maybe part ambassador role even.

[malk]

I don't think a playoff qualifier is fair or relevant, honestly. By your account, Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers weren't 'hits'.

That's fair, but to be honest I was thinking of the guys who never made it out of their rookie deals. If Butkus or Sayers did four years each with us and then moved onto success elsewhere would we be talking about them as great Bears hits?

And just to be clear, it isn't a comment on the players themselves but one about whether it can be considered a hit for the GM.

[G08]

Jason Licht was given swing number 3 on his head coach, and he's got a Super Bowl trophy to show for it.

27-53 record before Arians came along... just sayin'

[malk]

Any player that isn't on the roster and didn't contribute to even a single playoff win can't be considered a hit. Drafting isn't much use if you can't keep hold of them when it matters.

I totally disagree.

If you draft well you can't afford to keep every player beyond their rookie contract. It doesn't mean they weren't good picks. We got 4 good years out of Adrian Amos as a starter. For a 5th round pick that's tremendous value. We got good value from the fourth round pick spent on Kwiatkoski too. He was a starter-quality backup who was very solid when he had to come in (22 starts). Not every player, especially those taken later in the draft is going to be a Pro Bowler. If I recall correctly both helped net compensation picks.

Floyd was much-maligned for not being the sack-machine fans expected of a top 10 pick, but he's shown that he was capable of being just that in LA. Why wasn't he more productive in Chicago? Perhaps because of the way he was being used. His sack production prior to Mack's arrival wasn't bad (7 in 12 games as a rookie and 4.5 in 10 games in his second year including safeties in both). He was expected to feast opposite Mack but didn't. Perhaps that was because he was asked to drop back in coverage more and because he played the vast majority of snaps on the right edge because Mack prefers the left. In LA he appears to play more on the left. Regardless, he has shown that he clearly has the talent Pace recognised him having.

As to the second part of your criterion for a 'hit', having to contribute to even a single playoff win, you realise that would exclude both Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus neither of whom ever even played in a playoff game?

Edit: I see G08 beat me to the punch on the last point!

If we were dratfting sufficiently well to not be able to keep players we wouldn't be having this conversation. We're in the position of not being able to keep Amos, Floyd, Kwiatkoski etc. because of Pace's cap management. If he was just the draft guy I'd agree with you but in the context of whether Pace's decisions are hits I really don't think we should be giving him a pass for his own poor analysis post draft. Amos is a great example of this, for whatever reason Pace didn't value him enough, despite fantastic consistency and all around great play, Pace wanted more splashy inerceptions and decided to cut bait when his own bad cap management forced his hand.

So is Amos a good player? Yes. Was he a good draft pick? Yes. Is he a hit for Pace? I think it's an embarassment for Pace that his judgement has resulted in a great player he picked playing for our biggest rival.

When it comes to Floyd, he signed for the Rams for $10m and Pace didn't think he was worth that, or perhaps Pace's organisation had alienated him so much that he just wanted out. Anyway Pace is fine with this becuase he can give 30 year old Robert Quinn $70m, backloaded of course, and after a terrible first season he's looking ok again. But let's see how that decision plays out as we stare down the barrel at years 32-34 with cap hits around $18m per year...

Which is a similar situation as Kwiatkoski. Pace judged it more important to throw money at Trevathan than keep the player he drafted. Now we got some decent depth from him for a few years and that's not nothing from a 4th round pick but it seems to me like that should be considered scraping the barrell for a good GM.

Then to go back to the point about playoff wins, I'm talking about guys that left immediately after their rookie deals not HoF players that were in Chicago their whole careers in a completely different era. But thinking on it more, let's say Pace decides that our cap situation is such that we can't keep hold of Smith and he then goes on to have a HoF career somewhere else. There's zero chance I'd look back at this in ten years and think, wow, Pace had a great "hit" with Smith, I'll be cursing the idiot who let him slip from our grasp!

[o-pus #40 in B major]

I don't think a playoff qualifier is fair or relevant, honestly. By your account, Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers weren't 'hits'.

That's fair, but to be honest I was thinking of the guys who never made it out of their rookie deals. If Butkus or Sayers did four years each with us and then moved onto success elsewhere would we be talking about them as great Bears hits?

And just to be clear, it isn't a comment on the players themselves but one about whether it can be considered a hit for the GM.

If Sayers wasn't a hit after 4 years I'm a f**king giraffe.

[o-pus #40 in B major]

If a gm lets a Sayers or Butkus go after 4 years, it's the gm who needs to be hit, his own self.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

If we were dratfting sufficiently well to not be able to keep players we wouldn't be having this conversation. We're in the position of not being able to keep Amos, Floyd, Kwiatkoski etc. because of Pace's cap management. If he was just the draft guy I'd agree with you but in the context of whether Pace's decisions are hits I really don't think we should be giving him a pass for his own poor analysis post draft. Amos is a great example of this, for whatever reason Pace didn't value him enough, despite fantastic consistency and all around great play, Pace wanted more splashy inerceptions and decided to cut bait when his own bad cap management forced his hand.

So is Amos a good player? Yes. Was he a good draft pick? Yes. Is he a hit for Pace? I think it's an embarassment for Pace that his judgement has resulted in a great player he picked playing for our biggest rival.

When it comes to Floyd, he signed for the Rams for $10m and Pace didn't think he was worth that, or perhaps Pace's organisation had alienated him so much that he just wanted out. Anyway Pace is fine with this becuase he can give 30 year old Robert Quinn $70m, backloaded of course, and after a terrible first season he's looking ok again. But let's see how that decision plays out as we stare down the barrel at years 32-34 with cap hits around $18m per year...

Which is a similar situation as Kwiatkoski. Pace judged it more important to throw money at Trevathan than keep the player he drafted. Now we got some decent depth from him for a few years and that's not nothing from a 4th round pick but it seems to me like that should be considered scraping the barrell for a good GM.

Then to go back to the point about playoff wins, I'm talking about guys that left immediately after their rookie deals not HoF players that were in Chicago their whole careers in a completely different era. But thinking on it more, let's say Pace decides that our cap situation is such that we can't keep hold of Smith and he then goes on to have a HoF career somewhere else. There's zero chance I'd look back at this in ten years and think, wow, Pace had a great "hit" with Smith, I'll be cursing the idiot who let him slip from our grasp!

With regards to Amos, I too hated that Pace let him go. He signed a big contract with the Packers but with only $12m guaranteed and I believe that he could have been retained with a little more guaranteed and a lower overall contract. However, the team already had a lot of money tied up in the defense with Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Goldman and Trevathan (who were all living up to their contracts). Also Jackson had just been named first team All Pro and had made a name for himself with 8 INTs and 4 fumble recoveries, returning 5 of them for TDs in his first two seasons. He was always going to be paid. We can't pretend that there was plenty of cap space to pay Amos and Callahan (who signed with Denver on a 3 year $21m deal) as well. There also had to be a shift towards investing more cap space in the offense.

I also disagreed with Pace's decision to keep Trevathan over the younger and less often injured Kwiatkoski. I could understand the reasoning though. Trevathan was the leader on that defense, it was something more than one teammate stated. Also, although Kwiatkoski had a decent first year with the Raiders he hasn't started a single game this season so perhaps Pace judged his worth accurately. The big problem I have is the contract Trevathan got which is structured poorly in that it doesn't have a low dead cap hit out. That wasn't an issue Pace used to have and I have to wonder if that, and the Quinn contract, were a direct result of the unexpected fall in last year's salary cap due to Covid. Pace and every other GM in the league must have planned on the cap continuing to rise year-on-year when handing out contracts.

With Floyd, Pace originally exercised his 5th year option which would have paid him £13.2m, significantly more than the $10m he got from the Rams. Quinn's cap hit last year was just $6.1m, so again the lower salary cap may have played a part in signing him and letting Floyd walk. Also, Pace may have judged that Quinn would be a better fit opposite Mack than Floyd given one seems to like rushing off the right edge and the other off the left whereas Floyd appears to be more effective rushing off the same side as Mack. Quinn looked like a terrible signing last year but has been everything we could have hoped for this. When he and Mack were both playing, they were both recording sacks and the Bears were at or nor the top of the league in that category.

Ultimately if you get 4 good years from players and comp picks when they leave then I consider them hits for the GM.

With regard to the hypothetical scenario of a GM letting a player leave who goes on to have a HoF career elsewhere, he'd only be an idiot if he doesn't spend the money that would have gone to that player wisely. As a counter scenario, would you be cursing him as an idiot if he let Smith leave and instead spent that money on extensions for Montgomery, Johnson and Mooney if all three went on to have HoF careers? (And no I don't want Smith to be let go or expect those three to get into the HoF.)

[G08]

2022 Offensive Pieces

QB - Justin Fields, 23
HB - David Montgomery, 25 // Khalil Herbert, 24
WR - Darnell Mooney, 25
TE - Cole Kmet, 23
LT - Teven Jenkins, 24
LG - Cody Whitehair, 30
C - Open
RG - James Daniels, 24 (FA)
RT - Larry Borom, 23

2022 Defensive Pieces
OLB - Khalil Mack, 31 // Trevis Gipson, 25
OLB - Robert Quinn, 32
NT - Eddie Goldman, 28
ILB - Roquan Smith, 25
FS - Eddie Jackson, 29
CB - Jaylon Johnson, 23
DE - Mario Edwards Jr., 28
DE - Bilal Nichols, 26 (FA)



I dunno... the offense is pretty young save for Whitehair at LG, you sign a quality WR or hit on the draft and you should be able to field a competitive unit on that side of the ball.

Defensively, you are seeing the pass rushers start to age. Jaylon Johnson is ascending, do we throw some money at another corner in FA or do we draft one high?


I don't think this roster is as bad or untalented as many seem to make it out to be.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

The Sun Times' Mark Potash on Pace's situation:

Reading tea leaves at Halas Hall is like deciphering ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics, but it seems less likely that the Bears will fire Pace — their refusal to divulge his contact status after last season still seems suspicious. And the Bears haven’t sunk to the level of dysfunction that seemed to force McCaskey’s hand when he fired GM Phil Emery after the 2014 season.

The timing also makes it more problematic for the Bears to fire Pace if they want take advantage of the NFL’s new rule that allows teams to interview head coaching candidates in the final two weeks of the regular season. With just three weeks before that window opens, the wheels would already have to be in place to hire a new GM. And the Bears just aren’t built to act that quickly — though stranger things have happened at Halas Hall.

Full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2021 ... -a-message

[RichH55]

The OL rankings btw - Incorporate the whole season - That includes the bad games - Anyone not acknowledging this is simply looking to make excuses

No clue why the narrative on Fields should have changed in any way, shape, or form. (*)

(*) Unless you were someone who was calling him generational and was ready to go full bore in Week 1- Then yes that narrative should have changed

Fields is still tough, athletic, and accurate. It will be reading Defenses better, getting the ball out quicker that will make or break him. He's only a rookie so there is still time!

But the narrative has changed! Bad.

[malk]

If we were dratfting sufficiently well to not be able to keep players we wouldn't be having this conversation. We're in the position of not being able to keep Amos, Floyd, Kwiatkoski etc. because of Pace's cap management. If he was just the draft guy I'd agree with you but in the context of whether Pace's decisions are hits I really don't think we should be giving him a pass for his own poor analysis post draft. Amos is a great example of this, for whatever reason Pace didn't value him enough, despite fantastic consistency and all around great play, Pace wanted more splashy interceptions and decided to cut bait when his own bad cap management forced his hand.

So is Amos a good player? Yes. Was he a good draft pick? Yes. Is he a hit for Pace? I think it's an embarrassment for Pace that his judgement has resulted in a great player he picked playing for our biggest rival.

When it comes to Floyd, he signed for the Rams for $10m and Pace didn't think he was worth that, or perhaps Pace's organisation had alienated him so much that he just wanted out. Anyway Pace is fine with this becuase he can give 30 year old Robert Quinn $70m, backloaded of course, and after a terrible first season he's looking ok again. But let's see how that decision plays out as we stare down the barrel at years 32-34 with cap hits around $18m per year...

Which is a similar situation as Kwiatkoski. Pace judged it more important to throw money at Trevathan than keep the player he drafted. Now we got some decent depth from him for a few years and that's not nothing from a 4th round pick but it seems to me like that should be considered scraping the barrell for a good GM.

Then to go back to the point about playoff wins, I'm talking about guys that left immediately after their rookie deals not HoF players that were in Chicago their whole careers in a completely different era. But thinking on it more, let's say Pace decides that our cap situation is such that we can't keep hold of Smith and he then goes on to have a HoF career somewhere else. There's zero chance I'd look back at this in ten years and think, wow, Pace had a great "hit" with Smith, I'll be cursing the idiot who let him slip from our grasp!

With regards to Amos, I too hated that Pace let him go. He signed a big contract with the Packers but with only $12m guaranteed and I believe that he could have been retained with a little more guaranteed and a lower overall contract. However, the team already had a lot of money tied up in the defense with Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Goldman and Trevathan (who were all living up to their contracts). Also Jackson had just been named first team All Pro and had made a name for himself with 8 INTs and 4 fumble recoveries, returning 5 of them for TDs in his first two seasons. He was always going to be paid. We can't pretend that there was plenty of cap space to pay Amos and Callahan (who signed with Denver on a 3 year $21m deal) as well. There also had to be a shift towards investing more cap space in the offense.

Pace didn't have to let him go, that's the point. He *chose* to let him go. Sure Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Goldman and Trevathan were living up to their contracts but at the point that we let Amos go Trevathan was 29 and had one year left on his deal. Plus in the same year we allocated cap to Clinton-Dix ($3m for a direct replacement) plus Skrine ($2.1m), Mike Davis ($2.5m) Cordarrelle Patterson ($4.25m). And that's ignoring the wasted cap in previous years (even if I don't go back to Glennon, Chase Daniel was $10m over two years and that's within a million or two the difference between Clinton-Dix and Amos!) and, as I said before, in 2020 we resigned to $7m per year, $14m per year to Quinn, $15m per year to Jackson, $8m per year to Graham. Not to mention the small amounts to players like Bush or DHC, $1m/$1.4m that wouldn't have been necessary with Amos on the roster.

So there was all kinds of opportunity to keep him. And, Christ, if Pace wasn't risk averse to a stupefying degree, Amos would have signed for less than he did if we'd have locked him up with an extension at the end of 2017. But Pace needs to have talent proven before he makes a decision and consequently pays through the teeth for it.

I also disagreed with Pace's decision to keep Trevathan over the younger and less often injured Kwiatkoski. I could understand the reasoning though. Trevathan was the leader on that defense, it was something more than one teammate stated. Also, although Kwiatkoski had a decent first year with the Raiders he hasn't started a single game this season so perhaps Pace judged his worth accurately. The big problem I have is the contract Trevathan got which is structured poorly in that it doesn't have a low dead cap hit out. That wasn't an issue Pace used to have and I have to wonder if that, and the Quinn contract, were a direct result of the unexpected fall in last year's salary cap due to Covid. Pace and every other GM in the league must have planned on the cap continuing to rise year-on-year when handing out contracts.

Pace needs to be much less sentimental. You don't see the Patriots giving out big contracts to old dudes based on being a "leader". That defence was chock full of leaders and he simply needs to be more hard nosed and cut bait before players fall off a cliff. But even then, to outbid himself again and lock in all kinds of guarantees... well fair play to Trevathan's agent, he sewed Pace up like a kipper!

With Kwiatkoski, he hasn't gone on to do what he would have hoped (though was still listed as a hit here!) but it's always difficult to explore the counterfactual when someone moves to a different scheme etc. But the option is always there to sign neither.

With Floyd, Pace originally exercised his 5th year option which would have paid him £13.2m, significantly more than the $10m he got from the Rams. Quinn's cap hit last year was just $6.1m, so again the lower salary cap may have played a part in signing him and letting Floyd walk. Also, Pace may have judged that Quinn would be a better fit opposite Mack than Floyd given one seems to like rushing off the right edge and the other off the left whereas Floyd appears to be more effective rushing off the same side as Mack. Quinn looked like a terrible signing last year but has been everything we could have hoped for this. When he and Mack were both playing, they were both recording sacks and the Bears were at or nor the top of the league in that category.

I think we're too early into Quinn's contract to make an accurate determination of how it will play out but my strong suspicion is that it is going to look bad quickly. This year of sacks was much better obviously but I think it's arguable whether his overall play has lived up to the contract? But even then, who would you rather have on the roster and how much might Floyd have signed for if offered a longer term deal by us at the time? But this is expanding the discussion beyond whether he can be considered a hit for Pace...

Ultimately if you get 4 good years from players and comp picks when they leave then I consider them hits for the GM.

No comp pick for Floyd :grimace: But seriously, I can totally see where you're coming from and I'm not saying it isn't valid, but ultimately have any of those picks moved the team closer to the goal of deep playoff runs and ultimately rings? Because that's all I'm interested in.

With regard to the hypothetical scenario of a GM letting a player leave who goes on to have a HoF career elsewhere, he'd only be an idiot if he doesn't spend the money that would have gone to that player wisely. As a counter scenario, would you be cursing him as an idiot if he let Smith leave and instead spent that money on extensions for Montgomery, Johnson and Mooney if all three went on to have HoF careers? (And no I don't want Smith to be let go or expect those three to get into the HoF.)

This bit I think is going away from what I originally meant and didn't phrase brilliantly. I absolutely take the point that you don't need playoff wins to be considered a hit and that Butkus, Sayers etc were. I'm making a much more narrow point that I don't think you can generally consider a player a hit for a GM based on their success for another team. And especially not when it is the same GM that is the reason that they aren't on the roster anymore.

But perhaps as an aside, it does get interesting where players look so good on their rookie deals that they're able to ask for market changing deals. Now we haven't been in the situation where we couldn't absorb these (i.e. no huge amount of cap tied up in a QB) but the really smart GMs have to look at certain positions and the make up of their roster and decide to let great players go because they just can't be worth their cost. If you have a guard that can command $18m per year is it possible to be worth that over the concessions it forces elsewhere on the roster. Or a cornerback that makes $20m per year and could just not be thrown at if the other DBs aren't good enough, potentially because there wasn't sufficient cap to get better ones. Now not every roster spot can be filled by solid players at below market rate deals and you absolutely need difference makers. But good god this shows you can be better off with less flashy players like Amos rather than breaking the bank to sign Jackson based on a couple of outlier years which are virtually impossible to sustain.

(For reference I'm not saying that Jackson isn't, or wasn't great. But no GM should be making contract (amount) decisions based on defensive touchdowns (perhaps unless they're a Woodson). They're just too high a variance play for it to be a reasonable, i.e. the all time leaders are hitting one every twenty games. I'd argue the same for interceptions for that matter. In the salary cap era you have standouts like Ed Reed with 0.36 per game, Rod Woodson at 0.30, Ty Law, Charles Woodson and Ray Buchanan at around 0.25 per game. Then outside of the top 50 all time interception leaders you're looking below 0.18. Honestly, a really flash season like Jackson's in 2018 is a curse on a team, they almost never happen again, or not consistently, and then you end up paying close to HoF level money for, at best, merely top end talent. The cap is a nightmare!

[malk]

2022 Offensive Pieces

QB - Justin Fields, 23
HB - David Montgomery, 25 // Khalil Herbert, 24
WR - Darnell Mooney, 25
TE - Cole Kmet, 23
LT - Teven Jenkins, 24
LG - Cody Whitehair, 30
C - Open
RG - James Daniels, 24 (FA)
RT - Larry Borom, 23

2022 Defensive Pieces
OLB - Khalil Mack, 31 // Trevis Gipson, 25
OLB - Robert Quinn, 32
NT - Eddie Goldman, 28
ILB - Roquan Smith, 25
FS - Eddie Jackson, 29
CB - Jaylon Johnson, 23
DE - Mario Edwards Jr., 28
DE - Bilal Nichols, 26 (FA)



I dunno... the offense is pretty young save for Whitehair at LG, you sign a quality WR or hit on the draft and you should be able to field a competitive unit on that side of the ball.

Defensively, you are seeing the pass rushers start to age. Jaylon Johnson is ascending, do we throw some money at another corner in FA or do we draft one high?


I don't think this roster is as bad or untalented as many seem to make it out to be.

I worry about Mack and Quinn falling off quickly but the defence looks pretty good if they stay healthy and productive, well, if we can make sure the rest of the players on the field are at least adequate and we don't have gaping holes to exploit like this year.

For the offence tho... Montgomery is the only elite player, Whitehair is solid, Daniels and Mooney are pretty solid and promising. The rest though, it's all projection! We have to hope Fields is the real deal but it isn't certain. Kmet I've given up on to be honest and the rest are incompletes. It isn't that I hate the offence but we've got a single difference maker in Montgomery and reasonable hope with Fields. After that there's one decent receiver and a line with loads of question marks. I can see it being a decent offence next year, especially if Fields kicks on, but a lot is going to have to go right for it to be pushing the best in the league.

[RichH55]

Malk - Fair point on Projection

Maybe its the optimist in me - But I think I can project both Tackles being competent - And Young.

That is a big advantage

[G08]

@malk I hated the Kmet pick the moment it happened but have tried to come around on the kid. To me, he's still too stiff to be an elite TE and now I'm questioning his ball security (propensity for fumbles, drops and the Chicago Bears Special drop for INTs).

Maybe he can be Kyle Rudolph.

[TheWorldBreaker]

@malk I hated the Kmet pick the moment it happened but have tried to come around on the kid. To me, he's still too stiff to be an elite TE and now I'm questioning his ball security (propensity for fumbles, drops and the Chicago Bears Special drop for INTs).

Maybe he can be Kyle Rudolph.

Probably the best case scenario. He definitely hasn’t looked like an elite talent to me. Not great for a second round pick but what has come to be expected from Pace.

I really hope we get a GM that is actually good some day.

[Otis Day]

I am still open on Kmet. I don't believe he has gotten enough work to really judge him. Is the lack of work due to lack of talent? He was a beast at ND. He had the work there.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

Kmet has a great attitude and all the physical attributes.
He just needs coaching and to play in a functional offense.
I’m not concerned by him

[malk]

@malk I hated the Kmet pick the moment it happened but have tried to come around on the kid. To me, he's still too stiff to be an elite TE and now I'm questioning his ball security (propensity for fumbles, drops and the Chicago Bears Special drop for INTs).

Maybe he can be Kyle Rudolph.

Tbh I'll probably reset my opinion when we move on from Nagy but my untrained eye has seen pretty much nothing so he's not even registering on my "why not be hopeful" list.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

@malk I hated the Kmet pick the moment it happened but have tried to come around on the kid. To me, he's still too stiff to be an elite TE and now I'm questioning his ball security (propensity for fumbles, drops and the Chicago Bears Special drop for INTs).

Maybe he can be Kyle Rudolph.

Kmet has already put up more yards and catches in 12 games this season than Rudolph has managed in each of the last three seasons (where he played 16, 12 and 11 games).

I'm also not sure why you're questioning his ball security. Here's how he compares to Kelce, Gronk and Kittle:

Kmet
2020: Drops 4.5%, 1 INT when targeted, 1 fumble
2021: Drops 4.7%, 1 INT when targeted, 0 fumbles

Kelce
2018: Drops 4.7%, 3 INTs when targeted, 2 fumbles
2019: Drops 5.9%, 0 INTs when targeted, 1 fumble
2020: Drops 1.4%, 3 INTs when targeted, 1 fumble
2021: Drops 9.5%, 5 INTs when targeted, 1 fumble

Gronkowski
2018: Drops 4.2%, 2 INTs when targeted, 1 fumble
2020: Drops 2.6%, 2 INTs when targeted, 1 fumble
2021: Drops 6.4%, 0 INTs when targeted, 0 fumbles

Kittle
2018: Drops 3.7%, 3 INTs when targeted, 0 fumbles
2019: Drops 1.9%, 1 INT when targeted, 1 fumble
2020: Drops 7.9%, 2 INTs when targeted, 0 fumbles
2021: Drops 1.6%, 5 INTs when targeted, 2 fumbles

(Stats from Pro Football Reference, which only started maintaining some advanced stats in 2018.)

It's clear that Kmet's ball security is no better or worse than the top three tight-ends in the league, at least two of whom have already booked their places in the Hall of Fame.
A big difference between them and Kmet is that they've had Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady throwing them the ball in offenses that are amongst the best in the league. Kittle's QBs haven't been nearly so stellar but he still has the benefit of playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

What stands out with these top TEs is how many times they are targeted. In the last two seasons:
Kelce: 9.3 times per game, 70.0% catch rate
Gronk: 5.4 times per game, 62.9% catch rate
Kittle: 7.3 times per game, 74.2% catch rate

Kmet has only been targeted 3.9 times a game and has a 63.0% catch rate the same as Gronk despite the latter having Brady throwing the ball to him. Kmet's not going to put up big numbers if he's only targeted 4 times a game. Now maybe he's not being targeted more because he doesn't get open enough but it's not just him; we've seen long stretches of play in games where none of the Bears' TEs have been targeted at all. There is also the type of routes he gets to run. How many times do the Bears attack the seams? Almost every TE route seems to be a hitch or curl. Then there's the fact that all too often all the Bears' receivers run routes that require them to run vertically up the field and all break at the same depth rather than attack the opposing defenses at different levels.

I'm not suggesting that Kmet is a superstar but I honestly don't think you can draw any conclusions yet about the talent of any young player stuck in this atrocious Nagy offense and that makes it difficult to judge Pace's drafting (although it is a damning indictment of his choice of head coach).

[G08]

I'm also not sure why you're questioning his ball security.

Eye test I suppose... for not being targeted a lot I recall more fumbles and dropped passes than I care to see.

[Otis Day]

Pace's team is 2-11 against GB. The team he is supposed to compete against to win the division. Has not happened.

[IE]

I'm also not sure why you're questioning his ball security.

Eye test I suppose... for not being targeted a lot I recall more fumbles and dropped passes than I care to see.

I totally agree. Part of it is eye test. But "ball security" is a lot more than drops. Both Kmet and Mooney have tipped multiple balls for INTs. I can see Mooney because he's a midget. But for a big strong TE? Act like that ball is yours! Kmet just doesn't seem totally natural catching the ball - and especially after he catches the ball. He is definitely Kyle Rudolph. Which is fine - he's a Y.

Here I thought Nagy really needed his U when he went out and got Burton. But he really hasn't used that role since. Maybe because he's trying to make Kmet his main guy and Kmet can't do it. And maybe because Jimmy is a dinosaur who now is only good for catching TDs. But damn, man - you have James and Horsted why aren't you featuring them in that empty role in between the 20s when Mooney is your only other consistent target?