Pace hot seat

[wab]

Supposedly Arians was offered the job but was told he couldn't hire his own assistants, which killed the deal for him. As for Pace, 2 strikes and you're out. He has no judgement to hire another guy. I think that's why he's been so quiet, he's thinking what he needs to do to save his future.

I thought that rumor was debunked. My understanding was Emery asked him about keeping Marinelli specifically and Arians thought it was an odd request and didn't plan to. But supposedly George and Ted wanted Arians, Arians wanted the Bears, and hevwas hanging around some airport hotel waiting for an offer, but Emery was set on Trestman. Then Arians flew off to AZ.

This is exactly what happened.

[Grizzled]

I thought that rumor was debunked. My understanding was Emery asked him about keeping Marinelli specifically and Arians thought it was an odd request and didn't plan to. But supposedly George and Ted wanted Arians, Arians wanted the Bears, and hevwas hanging around some airport hotel waiting for an offer, but Emery was set on Trestman. Then Arians flew off to AZ.

This is exactly what happened.

Good to find this out. Another reason to boot Emery.

[mmmc_35]

Alright so back to Pace.

I personally would can him too. I think he is better then Nagy at his job, bit I dont think hes great or irreplaceable.

The only reason to keep him is because everyone is sick of rebuilding, and he could possibly narrow the rebuild gap.

[The Cooler King]

Alright so back to Pace.

I personally would can him too. I think he is better then Nagy at his job, bit I dont think hes great or irreplaceable.

The only reason to keep him is because everyone is sick of rebuilding, and he could possibly narrow the rebuild gap.

Pretty much. I mean I guess I'll go back to the idea he'd need to fire Nagy real soon and the interim lead them to the playoffs or very nearly, and maybe I'd be convinced Pace just needs more time and just made a huge mistake in Nagy, but can recover from it.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Alright so back to Pace.

I personally would can him too. I think he is better then Nagy at his job, bit I dont think hes great or irreplaceable.

The only reason to keep him is because everyone is sick of rebuilding, and he could possibly narrow the rebuild gap.

This is where I am at. I'm tired of the burn it all down model. Pace gets one more coaching hire. That's it. If he fucks it up, he's gone.

[The Cooler King]

Alright so back to Pace.

I personally would can him too. I think he is better then Nagy at his job, bit I dont think hes great or irreplaceable.

The only reason to keep him is because everyone is sick of rebuilding, and he could possibly narrow the rebuild gap.

This is where I am at. I'm tired of the burn it all down model. Pace gets one more coaching hire. That's it. If he fucks it up, he's gone.

Absent burning it all down, would you be open to a scenario where Pace is fired, but his replacement is in house already? I can get there's probably a lot that was built right over the last 7 years, but I ultimately am not sure Pace is the right decision maker.

Most of the successes seem like things that a deep and effective player personnel dept does well and not big ticket decisions that a GM is more inimately responsible for. If that infrastructure is in place, maybe it just needs a new person to run it (and all credit to Pace to building it)

[Moriarty]

Alright so back to Pace.

I personally would can him too. I think he is better then Nagy at his job, bit I dont think hes great or irreplaceable.

The only reason to keep him is because everyone is sick of rebuilding, and he could possibly narrow the rebuild gap.

This is where I am at. I'm tired of the burn it all down model.

The Bears have only rebuilt twice in the last 20 years - and one was pretty short/mild.
The other 15-16 years they were doing their best (such as it is) to compete.

I'm sick of Rebuilding Terror and failure to recognize when a run has ended and that futile efforts to keep it afloat will only delay the opportunity to build something worthwhile.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Remind me, was Pace the driving force behind the Halas Hall update/expansion? If so I'm just wondering whether the McCaskeys would want to keep him around for Arlington Heights in some capacity even if it is not in the GM role.

[cblaz11]

1. I believe Pace is much better as his job then Nagy
2. I believe this roster is very talented(every roster has holes)
3. Pace not moving faster on Nagy will be the reason hes fired. He should have told him this offseason, if you want to come back it’s wiyh Lazor calling plays.

Think of the time wasted this offseason. Trying to make this idiotic system work…Imagine if Lazor had the same time and Nagy put his energy into becoming a better Hc. That, is why I’m ok with Pace going. This has nothing to do with cap management or talent acquisition.

[The Cooler King]

Remind me, was Pace the driving force behind the Halas Hall update/expansion? If so I'm just wondering whether the McCaskeys would want to keep him around for Arlington Heights in some capacity even if it is not in the GM role.

I know he supposedly pushed for it to happen, but I've never seen an indication he played any part of the business role or that he's interested in that area. He basically just had to convince Phillips to make it happen.

[The Cooler King]

1. I believe Pace is much better as his job then Nagy
2. I believe this roster is very talented(every roster has holes)
3. Pace not moving faster on Nagy will be the reason hes fired. He should have told him this offseason, if you want to come back it’s wiyh Lazor calling plays.

Think of the time wasted this offseason. Trying to make this idiotic system work…Imagine if Lazor had the same time and Nagy put his energy into becoming a better Hc. That, is why I’m ok with Pace going. This has nothing to do with cap management or talent acquisition.

I pretty much agree on all points. Except on point 3 I see no point in a GM forcing a HC to give up play calling like that. That type of micromanagement is probably a bandaid on a festering wound and you need to just get on with it and cut ties. But yes, assuming he had the ability to make another hire last season, failing to act on Nagy is a huge strike.

But maybe his hand was forced from above to make it work and that either works for or against his favor (either he was on his last rope and wasn't getting more, or he had the confidence from above with assurances if that was the issue he'd still get his chance to address it in 2022).

[The Cooler King]

I'm also not really aware of an instance where an owner (or CEO/Pres) takes on that sort of oversight and is viewed like some model org for others to copy. The best owners seem to get out of the way. The ones that do are mocked and have been no more, and perhaps less successful than the Bears the past 20 years.

[mmmc_35]

I was thinking about this today. We all are in agreement Pace is better then Nagy but still hasn't been great.

Now while that's true, my theory is Pace is still well below average. I'm working on how to quantify it.

Looking at the draft, he has got talent out of later rounds. Every gm hits on a 4th rounder here and there. The depth of this team is no better then it was when he took over.

Now I want to bring up an anecdotal example for player acquisitions.

Sam Mustipher. During the off season I mentioned we should pull back on the reigns. He had not exactly cemented himself. Many disagreed. Pace didnt address the position. You can argue Bars, Whitehair, Daniel's all are the competition. However that seems to clearly be false. Paces internal evaluations are also poor.

So, we question his drafts, his free agents, and internal evaluations. He doesnt have one pillar of support.

Fyi I actually think Mustipher has played better then I expected. Hes not good, but hes also carrying bad weight and it will be 2 years before hes use to the extra weight.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Looking at the draft, he has got talent out of later rounds. Every gm hits on a 4th rounder here and there. The depth of this team is no better then it was when he took over.

I wouldn't agree with that. When Pace took over he inherited the worst defense in franchise history. With Fangio at the helm he turned it into the best in the league and it's been a decent unit ever since in part because of some excellent depth. It's only this year where there's been a glaring lack at any position, namely CB. The offense is admittedly a whole different kettle of fish. There is certainly a strange dichotomy between the talent on offense and defense. How can a GM do so well on one side of the ball and so abysmally on the other? My working theory is it's due to having Nagy at the helm. His offense has been so inept regardless of who's playing that it's hard to know what the talent is truly like.

As for 'every GM hits on a 4th rounder here and there' I think that's doing Pace a disservice. Fourth rounders and later have included Adrian Amos, Bryce Callahan (undrafted), Nick Kwiatkoski, Deon Bush, Jordan Howard, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Roy Robertson-Harris (undrafted), Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, Bilal Nichols and Darnell Mooney plus in the last couple of drafts Kindle Vildor, Larry Borom and Khyiris Tonga who are getting playing time and have flashed promise. That's a pretty good haul from those later rounds.

[mmmc_35]

Again how do you quantify. I started looking through active gms. On the surface it seems impressive. However grading against other GMs it doesn't appear so.

So an easy sample Pace vs Ballard. Ballard was considered for the bears spot. Ballard was hired in 2017, pace 2015.

Looking at Ballard's drafts 4-7. On the surface Ballards equal if not better. I'll say Pace has bigger hits but Ballard has more players in the nfl on teams.

[mmmc_35]

Ballard vs Pace rounds 4-7

starter 4 4
2nd 12 9
3rd 3 2
ps. 5 8
ir 3 2
fa 1 4

Both have almost the same number of picks. Ballard is slightly better. I put pace as a replacement level gm.

[Artbest]

Nagy at the helm means mediocre talent on offense = an abysmal offense. Pace, over 7 years, has done a poor job on offense. The oline isn’t good - it took him 7 years to take the ot position seriously - and the player he selected came to the bears “pre injured.” His awful salary cap management meant that, when Jenkins went down, he had to call an out of shape 39 year old has been out of semi retirement to start at left tackle. The wrs are pedestrian by nfl standards - Robinsons a very good wr, Mooney is a solid #3 forced to be a #2 and the rest are one year contract placeholders. The tight ends? Meh. Graham is beyond over the hill. The next time Kmet gets separation will be his first. Pace received permission to trade up for a QB twice in 5 years - that’s not the sign of a good GM.

The defense is much better talent wise - and $$ invested on that side of the ball explain why. Still - storm clouds are on the horizon. Hicks, Quinn and Mack are on the wrong side of 30. They have no nickel corners on the roster. They have one legit cb on the roster. The fall of Eddie Jackson leaves them woefully thin at safety. Of the 11 starters 3 - Smith, Nichols and Johnson - are long term building blocks.

The cult of pace continues to be a curious phenomenon. He hired Matt Nagy. He’s on his second 1st round QB in 5 years. He has left the team with minimal draft capital. He mismanaged the salary cap. The roster is old. But, by all means, let’s allow him to hire ANOTHER head coach.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

1. I believe Pace is much better as his job then Nagy
2. I believe this roster is very talented(every roster has holes)
3. Pace not moving faster on Nagy will be the reason hes fired. He should have told him this offseason, if you want to come back it’s wiyh Lazor calling plays.

Think of the time wasted this offseason. Trying to make this idiotic system work…Imagine if Lazor had the same time and Nagy put his energy into becoming a better Hc. That, is why I’m ok with Pace going. This has nothing to do with cap management or talent acquisition.

Agree with all of this (except Pace getting fired).

I still think Pace gets one more coaching hire. However bad you think Pace is, you obviously have wiped the Emery era from your memory.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Ballard vs Pace rounds 4-7

starter 4 4
2nd 12 9
3rd 3 2
ps. 5 8
ir 3 2
fa 1 4

Both have almost the same number of picks. Ballard is slightly better. I put pace as a replacement level gm.

From The Athletic: "According to The Athletic’s Ben Standig, based on a survey of thirty-three certified NFL agents, Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard was recently voted both the league’s ‘best GM’ and ‘talent evaluator’ respectively."

So you're telling me that with similar player acquisition records, Ryan Pace deserves to be fired?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Again how do you quantify. I started looking through active gms. On the surface it seems impressive. However grading against other GMs it doesn't appear so.

So an easy sample Pace vs Ballard. Ballard was considered for the bears spot. Ballard was hired in 2017, pace 2015.

Looking at Ballard's drafts 4-7. On the surface Ballards equal if not better. I'll say Pace has bigger hits but Ballard has more players in the nfl on teams.

Ballard vs Pace rounds 4-7

starter 4 4
2nd 12 9
3rd 3 2
ps. 5 8
ir 3 2
fa 1 4

Both have almost the same number of picks. Ballard is slightly better. I put pace as a replacement level gm.

So just to clarify, Ballard's drafts in the later rounds are 'equal if not better/slightly better' than Pace's because he has more players on NFL teams although Pace has had bigger hits thus making Pace a 'replacement level gm'. Does that mean that Ballard is also a replacement level GM in your opinion then, since he is only marginally better at hitting on low round draft picks? I assume not. GM evaluation obviously involves a lot more than that so I don't believe that's what you meant to imply.

You previously stated that 'every GM hits on a 4th rounder here and there'. Pace has demonstrably hit on more than just a few late rounders. Those 14 players I listed, some of whom have only just begun their careers, have played in a combined 681 games with 381 starts (56%). All I'm saying is that Pace has a good hit rate in the lower rounds and UDFA , finding both starters and quality back ups. 10 of those 14 are defensive players, which further illustrates the gulf between Pace's success on defense over offense.

That doesn't mean that I believe Pace is a great GM only that finding decent players in the later rounds and in UDFA is a strength of his and it has resulted in good depth on the defensive side of the ball.

I maintain that Pace's biggest failure has not been in drafting but rather his choice of Matt Nagy as Head Coach. Overall I'm generally happy with Pace and his team's drafting and identification of free agent talent. If the Bears continue to haemorrhage games, he fires Nagy midseason and the offense picks up under an interim coach then I would be more than willing to give him one more shot at appointing a head coach. Otherwise I have no firm view on whether he should or should not be retained.

[The Marshall Plan]

For all of the ballyhoo about Ryan Pace and the Saints.

Is Ryan Pace responsible for bringing Drew Bees onboard?

I don't believe he is.

Take Drew Brees off the Saints and you have a nothing-special, everyday, run of the mill, average franchise. Maybe even shitty.

[Moriarty]

Ballard vs Pace rounds 4-7

starter 4 4
2nd 12 9
3rd 3 2
ps. 5 8
ir 3 2
fa 1 4

Both have almost the same number of picks. Ballard is slightly better. I put pace as a replacement level gm.

From The Athletic: "According to The Athletic’s Ben Standig, based on a survey of thirty-three certified NFL agents, Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard was recently voted both the league’s ‘best GM’ and ‘talent evaluator’ respectively."

So you're telling me that with similar player acquisition records, Ryan Pace deserves to be fired?

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

Did I miss a post somewhere, or are you using performance of Day 3 picks as the one and only metric of GM performance?

[mmmc_35]

Well that post drew a lot of criticism and people reading things that where not said. I also could have written more context.

I will say I didn't realize Ballard was so highly regarded. I used him as a reference because of the Bears connection.

I only brought up day 3 picks because people always mention his day 3 successes. Which I dont think are our of the realm of normal.

I think hes a replacement level GM based on his performance, and the late round picks dont change his grade.

[thunderspirit]

I think hes a replacement level GM based on his performance, and the late round picks dont change his grade.

I think Pace is slightly better than that, but only slightly. I'm not averse to replacing him, but it's hard to assure you're getting someone better, and it's evident by history that you can do worse.

[Moriarty]

Well that post drew a lot of criticism and people reading things that where not said. I also could have written more context.

I will say I didn't realize Ballard was so highly regarded. I used him as a reference because of the Bears connection.

I wasn't referring to you, that was directed at Whiskey. He claimed Ballard and Pace are comparable and I don't see anything that is based on, outside of your Day 3 comparison.

I only brought up day 3 picks because people always mention his day 3 successes. Which I dont think are our of the realm of normal.

I think hes a replacement level GM based on his performance, and the late round picks dont change his grade.

His Day 3 picks seem better than average to me. But that said, Day 3 pick performance is pretty tiny in the grand scheme of GM evaluation. High picks, high priced FAs, synching timing, cap management, and HC hires are all far more important - and he doesn't look very good in that regard.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Well that post drew a lot of criticism and people reading things that where not said. I also could have written more context.

I will say I didn't realize Ballard was so highly regarded. I used him as a reference because of the Bears connection.

I wasn't referring to you, that was directed at Whiskey. He claimed Ballard and Pace are comparable and I don't see anything that is based on, outside of your Day 3 comparison.

I only brought up day 3 picks because people always mention his day 3 successes. Which I dont think are our of the realm of normal.

I think hes a replacement level GM based on his performance, and the late round picks dont change his grade.

His Day 3 picks seem better than average to me. But that said, Day 3 pick performance is pretty tiny in the grand scheme of GM evaluation. High picks, high priced FAs, synching timing, cap management, and HC hires are all far more important - and he doesn't look very good in that regard.

OK, then what are the Day 1 and Day 2 comparisons? I'm not here to argue that Pace is one of the best GM's in the league. Far from it. But I am here to posit that Pace is better at drafting offensive players than he's getting credit for. Mainly because Nagy's play calling is so bad, it's been near impossible to evaluate the talent that we actually have.

[TheWorldBreaker]

I wasn't referring to you, that was directed at Whiskey. He claimed Ballard and Pace are comparable and I don't see anything that is based on, outside of your Day 3 comparison.




His Day 3 picks seem better than average to me. But that said, Day 3 pick performance is pretty tiny in the grand scheme of GM evaluation. High picks, high priced FAs, synching timing, cap management, and HC hires are all far more important - and he doesn't look very good in that regard.

OK, then what are the Day 1 and Day 2 comparisons? I'm not here to argue that Pace is one of the best GM's in the league. Far from it. But I am here to posit that Pace is better at drafting offensive players than he's getting credit for. Mainly because Nagy's play calling is so bad, it's been near impossible to evaluate the talent that we actually have.

And again you are 100% wrong. You can always evaluate players no matter what system they’re in. That’s literally part of the jobs of scouts. Not every player drafted has great coaching in a system tailored around their skill sets.

For instance, everyone could tell Trubisky wasn’t starting QB material by his inability to throw down the field with any consistent accuracy, poor pocket presence, and consistently being unable to properly read defenses. Literally none of those things are dependent on coaching or system and Fields is actually already better in all of those areas.

Furthermore, if Nagy was holding the secretly amazing draft picks of Ryan Pace back then one of them would have popped on another team. But none of them have.

[wab]

OK, then what are the Day 1 and Day 2 comparisons? I'm not here to argue that Pace is one of the best GM's in the league. Far from it. But I am here to posit that Pace is better at drafting offensive players than he's getting credit for. Mainly because Nagy's play calling is so bad, it's been near impossible to evaluate the talent that we actually have.

And again you are 100% wrong. You can always evaluate players no matter what system they’re in. That’s literally part of the jobs of scouts. Not every player drafted has great coaching in a system tailored around their skill sets.

For instance, everyone could tell Trubisky wasn’t starting QB material by his inability to throw down the field with any consistent accuracy, poor pocket presence, and consistently being unable to properly read defenses. Literally none of those things are dependent on coaching or system and Fields is actually already better in all of those areas.

Furthermore, if Nagy was holding the secretly amazing draft picks of Ryan Pace back then one of them would have popped on another team. But none of them have.

So, just for clarity. You…”don’t” like Pace?

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

OK, then what are the Day 1 and Day 2 comparisons? I'm not here to argue that Pace is one of the best GM's in the league. Far from it. But I am here to posit that Pace is better at drafting offensive players than he's getting credit for. Mainly because Nagy's play calling is so bad, it's been near impossible to evaluate the talent that we actually have.

Furthermore, if Nagy was holding the secretly amazing draft picks of Ryan Pace back then one of them would have popped on another team. But none of them have.

OK. That's a good point. We haven't seen any of the Pace drafted players take off after landing on another team. I'll buy that argument.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

And again you are 100% wrong. You can always evaluate players no matter what system they’re in. That’s literally part of the jobs of scouts. Not every player drafted has great coaching in a system tailored around their skill sets.

For instance, everyone could tell Trubisky wasn’t starting QB material by his inability to throw down the field with any consistent accuracy, poor pocket presence, and consistently being unable to properly read defenses. Literally none of those things are dependent on coaching or system and Fields is actually already better in all of those areas.

Furthermore, if Nagy was holding the secretly amazing draft picks of Ryan Pace back then one of them would have popped on another team. But none of them have.

So, just for clarity. You…”don’t” like Pace?

At this point I'm indifferent. I'm tired of the burn it down mentality, and I think because Nagy has only really had one coaching hire, that he should get one more. I also think that Pace has shown improvement in his drafting over the last few years, and improvement doesn't necessitate a firing.