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Moriarty
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The Cooler King wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:08 pm
I'll see if I can post specific numbers later, but I'm seeing two really strong trends.
Teams who have lost a lot recently with very clean cap situations. Teams who have won some or a lot and have messier caps. I'm not surprised. This is what I expected.
Same here.
But the way you say that is making me leery about interpretation.

I hope you're not going to use that to argue "clean caps help/cause you to lose a lot and messy caps help/cause you to win a lot".
Whatever causation is there is mostly in the reverse -

When your roster is hopeless (can't win much), that's when you decide to cut guys and clean up your cap, when you're winning and getting close, that's when you decide to get "cap creative", trying to get over the top.
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:25 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:08 pm
I'll see if I can post specific numbers later, but I'm seeing two really strong trends.
Teams who have lost a lot recently with very clean cap situations. Teams who have won some or a lot and have messier caps. I'm not surprised. This is what I expected.
Same here.
But the way you say that is making me leery about interpretation.

I hope you're not going to use that to argue "clean caps help/cause you to lose a lot and messy caps help/cause you to win a lot".
Whatever causation is there is mostly in the reverse -

When your roster is hopeless (can't win much), that's when you decide to cut guys and clean up your cap, when you're winning and getting close, that's when you decide to get "cap creative", trying to get over the top.
No not quite. I'm definitely cautious of correlation/causation assumptions.

But a common trend is seemingly: Obtain good players. Win games. Retain good players - > Messy cap.

While I know the Bears have underwhelmed since 2018 that still is more or less their path. Largely due to not having to pay a QB, they've avoided the worst cap outcomes. But certainly they aren't like top 10 in cap health. But pretty much all the healthy cap teams have won shit lately and rebuilt.

As I'm ranking all these teams though, most are fitting into pretty general buckets based on their overall cap positon. The Bears and Cards really represent that crossroads though, namely the Cards are seeing their first success in a while, the Bears are reeling from their last success in 2018 and they both finished 8-8 last year. Neither team has had to pay a QB in a while which makes both fairly unique in the landscape.

With very similar cap health numbers, probabaly the biggest difference is the Cards are 2 years away from having to pay thier QB. If Fields hit, the Bears have a couple extra years.

Which is all to say, it's actually not a criticism of the Cards from me. There's a few teams I can think of who had early success from rebuilding, maybe had a 10 win season and FANTASTIC cap health and... Never really took off. Two in particular from recent seasons that both have losing records in 2021 so far. I think one thing that isn't recognized by certain detractors is that there is an opportunity cost associated with spending conservatively as you'll miss out on your first good year if you require too strong of proof of concept before going all in and spending aggressively to actually try and win (which is the point). And it could be that year was your best opportunity. Careers are short, injuries are unpredictable. All that can make it challenging to recreate success as it's sometimes just lighting in a bottle.

The Bears right now look very much like the 8-8 team they have been. With the biggest difference from the past 2 years being Fields. Some people seem to still want to hold back and get a cap reset in here srill, but honestly I think they need to be foot to the pedal going forward. There were still questions about Murray after his rookie year and the Cards progressed on from an even worse starting point as far as record. And early returns are very promising for rewarding that agressiveness.
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It is just time to launch him, literally anyone on the team can be cut aside Fields. There only a few players that have negative cap hits if cut and there are only 26 players under contract. That is a perfect time to bring in a new GM and coaching regime. I like Pace as an overall talent evaluator but I do not like how he has overpaid mediocre talent and wasted too many picks moving around in the draft. I just hope the next guy puts a lot more value in draft picks and on building the offensive line. You should be continually trying to upgrade mediocre talent, not rewarding them with multi year contracts.
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Z Bear wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:39 pm It is just time to launch him, literally anyone on the team can be cut aside Fields. There only a few players that have negative cap hits if cut and there are only 26 players under contract. That is a perfect time to bring in a new GM and coaching regime. I like Pace as an overall talent evaluator but I do not like how he has overpaid mediocre talent and wasted too many picks moving around in the draft. I just hope the next guy puts a lot more value in draft picks and on building the offensive line. You should be continually trying to upgrade mediocre talent, not rewarding them with multi year contracts.
I honestly think Pace gets kicked upstairs. I think the family holds him high regard but also understands they need better results from the FO.
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wab wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:42 pm

I honestly think Pace gets kicked upstairs. I think the family holds him high regard but also understands they need better results from the FO.
I agree with this prediction .... but I hate the narrative. What competent GM candidate takes this job with Ryan Pace lurking in the hallway?

First of all ..... awkward.
Second ..... this guy is clearly admired by Ownership and Ted and has their ear - every move you make, you know is going to scrutinized by the Trinity of Idiots.
Third ..... what the hell would he do in a non-football capacity?
Fourth .... Politics 101, if you can't blame your predecessor .... who can you blame for your failures?
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Coolerking,

The time for blowing up the roster would have been this year - Letting Fields sit etc. Doing in Year 2 of the Rookie QB contract doesn't make a ton of sense IMHO.

We aren't in that bad of cap shape - and we should add some Comp Picks
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wulfy wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:50 pm
wab wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:42 pm

I honestly think Pace gets kicked upstairs. I think the family holds him high regard but also understands they need better results from the FO.
I agree with this prediction .... but I hate the narrative. What competent GM candidate takes this job with Ryan Pace lurking in the hallway?

First of all ..... awkward.
Second ..... this guy is clearly admired by Ownership and Ted and has their ear - every move you make, you know is going to scrutinized by the Trinity of Idiots.
Third ..... what the hell would he do in a non-football capacity?
Fourth .... Politics 101, if you can't blame your predecessor .... who can you blame for your failures?
Good post Wulfy
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wulfy wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:50 pm
wab wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:42 pm

I honestly think Pace gets kicked upstairs. I think the family holds him high regard but also understands they need better results from the FO.
I agree with this prediction .... but I hate the narrative. What competent GM candidate takes this job with Ryan Pace lurking in the hallway?

First of all ..... awkward.
Second ..... this guy is clearly admired by Ownership and Ted and has their ear - every move you make, you know is going to scrutinized by the Trinity of Idiots.
Third ..... what the hell would he do in a non-football capacity?
Fourth .... Politics 101, if you can't blame your predecessor .... who can you blame for your failures?
Yep. If he must stay, he stays in his current role. I hate the idea of him sticking around in some other capacity.
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wab wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:42 pm
Z Bear wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:39 pm It is just time to launch him, literally anyone on the team can be cut aside Fields. There only a few players that have negative cap hits if cut and there are only 26 players under contract. That is a perfect time to bring in a new GM and coaching regime. I like Pace as an overall talent evaluator but I do not like how he has overpaid mediocre talent and wasted too many picks moving around in the draft. I just hope the next guy puts a lot more value in draft picks and on building the offensive line. You should be continually trying to upgrade mediocre talent, not rewarding them with multi year contracts.
I honestly think Pace gets kicked upstairs. I think the family holds him high regard but also understands they need better results from the FO.
This.

I think a lot of people are gonna be surprised by that.
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dplank wrote:I agree with Rich here
RichH55 wrote: Dplank is correct
:shocked:
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:25 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:08 pm
I'll see if I can post specific numbers later, but I'm seeing two really strong trends.
Teams who have lost a lot recently with very clean cap situations. Teams who have won some or a lot and have messier caps. I'm not surprised. This is what I expected.
Same here.
But the way you say that is making me leery about interpretation.

I hope you're not going to use that to argue "clean caps help/cause you to lose a lot and messy caps help/cause you to win a lot".
Whatever causation is there is mostly in the reverse -

When your roster is hopeless (can't win much), that's when you decide to cut guys and clean up your cap, when you're winning and getting close, that's when you decide to get "cap creative", trying to get over the top.
The big thing here is about meaningful wins. If we're not talking about the postseason (and deep into it at that), well, I'm gonna defer to The Answer...

"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
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I'm assuming Nagy gets fired. It will be very awkward for Pace to be kept on with a 1 year contract while hiring a new Head Coach with a 4 or 5 year contract. It might (but probably won't) give a pause to coaching candidates to work under a guy subject to the doom of Damocles.
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Hub said on the Score this week that he isn't hearing anything from Halas Hall sources about any significant sentiment for Pace to go
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:50 pm Hub said on the Score this week that he isn't hearing anything from Halas Hall sources about any significant sentiment for Pace to go
Not surprising considering the Nagy is getting fired after Thanksgiving fiasco. Pace is going to have to do a lot of explaining if the Bears only win one more game (which is looking at best, might be 0). 1 winning season and no playoff wins in 7 seasons should get a GM fired coming off a 5-12 season where his handpicked coach was fired too.
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Moriarty wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:50 pm Hub said on the Score this week that he isn't hearing anything from Halas Hall sources about any significant sentiment for Pace to go
I don't think he's going anywhere. I'm not even sure he's going to get bumped up.

Again, I'll share his 'hits':

Draft Picks and Free Agents

Goldman
Amos (thriving in GB)
Floyd (thriving in LA)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski (paid by LV)
Howard
DHC
Jackson
Cohen
Roquan Smith
Daniels
Nichols
Montgomery
Kmet (early)
Jaylon Johnson
Gipson (early)
Mooney
Fields
Jenkins/Borom (way too early)
Herbert

Trevathan
Hicks
Robinson (I guess...)
Khalil Mack Trade
Quinn


Over the course of 7 seasons, including overhauling Halas Hall, this isn't bad
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G08 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:30 pm
Moriarty wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:50 pm Hub said on the Score this week that he isn't hearing anything from Halas Hall sources about any significant sentiment for Pace to go
I don't think he's going anywhere. I'm not even sure he's going to get bumped up.

Again, I'll share his 'hits':

Draft Picks and Free Agents

Goldman
Amos (thriving in GB)
Floyd (thriving in LA)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski (paid by LV)
Howard
DHC
Jackson
Cohen
Roquan Smith
Daniels
Nichols
Montgomery
Kmet (early)
Jaylon Johnson
Gipson (early)
Mooney
Fields
Jenkins/Borom (way too early)
Herbert

Trevathan
Hicks
Robinson (I guess...)
Khalil Mack Trade
Quinn


Over the course of 7 seasons, including overhauling Halas Hall, this isn't bad
46 wins and 61 losses (to date)
One winning season
One playoff game
One historically bad QB draft
One miserable HC hire ( giving him a mulligan on Fox)
This is bad.
The secret is to work less as individuals and more as a team. As a coach, I play not my eleven best, but my best eleven.
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Whatever happens to Pace, either way, don't really care. BUT, he has left the secondary weaker than hell. It is almost embarrassing how bad the corners are opposite JJ.

As for Amos and Floyd, they are thriving, I guess, somewhere else. So that goes against him IMO. Poor draft pics for the system they were in?
Not sure you can count Howard as he was let go after a couple of productive years. Anyone can say he sucked after he left, but leaves one to wonder if he could have still been good here.

No first rounders next year hurts. The drafting of #10 will always look bad on him. The OL is not fixed at this moment and that is on him.

No playoff wins in 7 yrs. That is bad and hard to overlook.

If he is here, not sure the Bears will be much better next year, if he is gone, the same.
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Just like it is hard to know who the real Trubisky is because Nagy sux so hard, I have a hard time judging Pace’s roster building because Nagy.
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i dont see Pace getting canned as GM. He gets to pick another one having learned from his mistakes.
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dave99 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:15 pm
G08 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:30 pm

I don't think he's going anywhere. I'm not even sure he's going to get bumped up.

Again, I'll share his 'hits':

Draft Picks and Free Agents

Goldman
Amos (thriving in GB)
Floyd (thriving in LA)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski (paid by LV)
Howard
DHC
Jackson
Cohen
Roquan Smith
Daniels
Nichols
Montgomery
Kmet (early)
Jaylon Johnson
Gipson (early)
Mooney
Fields
Jenkins/Borom (way too early)
Herbert

Trevathan
Hicks
Robinson (I guess...)
Khalil Mack Trade
Quinn


Over the course of 7 seasons, including overhauling Halas Hall, this isn't bad
46 wins and 61 losses (to date)
One winning season
One playoff game
One historically bad QB draft
One miserable HC hire ( giving him a mulligan on Fox)
This is bad.
I understand looking at the wins and losses (at the end of the day it's all that matters), but we also have to remember Pace told ownership it will take time to tear this all down. Over half those losses came in his first three seasons as GM, which is when the overhaul was occurring.

He missed on Nagy, but he also rebuilt the worst defense in Chicago Bears history into the #1 defense in the NFL by season 4.
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G08 you could also add Bryce Callahan and Roy Robertson-Harris to the list as undrafted free agents. Personally I'd include Alex Bars with them as well, who is at the least a solid backup and I suspect could be a starter.
Otis Day wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:18 pm As for Amos and Floyd, they are thriving, I guess, somewhere else. So that goes against him IMO. Poor draft pics for the system they were in?
Not sure you can count Howard as he was let go after a couple of productive years. Anyone can say he sucked after he left, but leaves one to wonder if he could have still been good here.
I don't believe you can say Floyd and particularly Amos were poor picks for the Bears system.

Amos was a very sound player during his time in Chicago. I seem to recall PFF ranking him as the second best safety one year (although I put little stock in their grades), he was a good tackler and rarely caught out of position. The one knock on him was that he didn't get many turnovers. I didn't like Pace letting him go because his partnership with Jackson was so good. The problem is that you can't afford to keep everyone. However, Amos only got $12 guaranteed by the Packers and Pace could have competed with that.

Floyd wasn't bad in Chicago, just not the sack machine he was expected to be. He had 7 sacks in 12 games as a rookie and 4.5 in 10 games the next year, with a couple of safeties, and he was used in coverage a lot especially after Mack's arrival. The thing I really liked about him was that he often had his best games against the Packers averaging nearly a sack a game against them (2016 Week 7: 2 sacks, FF, FR and a TD, 2017: 1.5 sacks, 2018 Week 14: 2 sacks, 6 solo tackles, 2019 Week 1: 2 sacks, 4 solo tackles).

As for Howard, he was just fine when playing for the Eagles in 2019 in a supposedly similar offense to Nagy's and managed to average 0.7 ypc more than in his one season playing for him:

2019: 10 games, 119 carries, 525 yards, 4.4 ypc, 6 TDs plus 10 receptions, 69 yards with 1 TD.

It was a shame he got injured especially seeing he'd had two of his best games of the year prior to that (96 yards with a TD and 82 yards with a TD).

I've no idea what went wrong for him in Miami, but he's been productive in the 4 games he's played with the Eagles again this year:

2021: 4 games, 51 carries, 274 yards, 5.4 ypc, 3 TDs

Once again, it's a shame he got injured and is currently out with a sprained knee. He's a quality RB who I still believe Pace should not have let go but he did it to try to give his head coach players that fit his system. The problem is that system is woeful.

A great many, but by no means all, of Pace's failings can be laid at Nagy's door. Like dplank "I have a hard time judging Pace’s roster building because Nagy". However Pace is responsible for hiring Nagy so whilst I'm interested to see what another head coach could do with the roster he's built I'm not bothered either way whether he stays or go.
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The Athletic did a piece today ranking GM’s.
They broke it down into categories based on longevity. In the category of GM’s in place for 5-9 drafts, Pace came in last:
6. Ryan Pace, Chicago Bears (.430): The Bears rank 10th in defensive EPA per game since Pace became GM, but they paid more than $100 million during that time for 84 combined starts from quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky, Jay Cutler, Mike Glennon, Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. They now have Justin Fields but probably will be hiring another coach. Pace and the Bears have declined to say how long the GM is under contract. Is the end near?
The other five in order:
Jon Robinson (Titans)
Steve Keim (Cardinals)
Howie Roseman (Eagles)
Tom Telesco (Chargers)
Jason Licht (Bucs).

There are four or five GM’s with worse records but none with his seniority. To be fair Licht was probably saved by Brady.
Of course the grumpy lobster boat captain was number one.

Giving this guy 3 to 5 years more to complete his journey makes no sense but it is just the sort of thing George and Ted are likely to do. They will drink a toast to Capt. Edward Smith and congratulate themselves on staying the course.
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dave99 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:26 am The Athletic did a piece today ranking GM’s.
They broke it down into categories based on longevity. In the category of GM’s in place for 5-9 drafts, Pace came in last:
6. Ryan Pace, Chicago Bears (.430): The Bears rank 10th in defensive EPA per game since Pace became GM, but they paid more than $100 million during that time for 84 combined starts from quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky, Jay Cutler, Mike Glennon, Nick Foles and Andy Dalton. They now have Justin Fields but probably will be hiring another coach. Pace and the Bears have declined to say how long the GM is under contract. Is the end near?
The other five in order:
Jon Robinson (Titans)
Steve Keim (Cardinals)
Howie Roseman (Eagles)
Tom Telesco (Chargers)
Jason Licht (Bucs).

There are four or five GM’s with worse records but none with his seniority. To be fair Licht was probably saved by Brady.
Of course the grumpy lobster boat captain was number one.

Giving this guy 3 to 5 years more to complete his journey makes no sense but it is just the sort of thing George and Ted are likely to do. They will drink a toast to Capt. Edward Smith and congratulate themselves on staying the course.
:applaud:
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G08 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:04 pm
dave99 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:15 pm
46 wins and 61 losses (to date)
One winning season
One playoff game
One historically bad QB draft
One miserable HC hire ( giving him a mulligan on Fox)
This is bad.
I understand looking at the wins and losses (at the end of the day it's all that matters), but we also have to remember Pace told ownership it will take time to tear this all down. Over half those losses came in his first three seasons as GM, which is when the overhaul was occurring.
He had 3 years of rebuilding and 4 years of trying to win.
They ought to balance out.
They don't, because he did a bad job.
Just the 4 years of "pedal to the metal, go for it!" alone only has 1 winning season, 2 .500, and 1 losing, and just barely above .500 for those 4 years. That's a pathetic payoff for 3 years of building.
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Ryan Pace's seat SHOULD be as hot as Nagy's - is it? Probably not. But it absolutely should be. The cult of Pace consistently ignores that he has produced but one winning season, 2 playoff appearances and zero playoff wins in 7 years. Pace is 2-11 against the Green Bay Packers. How much more time do folks need to see that, while he's not the WORST GM in the league, he's definitely in the bottom half.
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Moriarty wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:07 pm
G08 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:04 pm

I understand looking at the wins and losses (at the end of the day it's all that matters), but we also have to remember Pace told ownership it will take time to tear this all down. Over half those losses came in his first three seasons as GM, which is when the overhaul was occurring.
He had 3 years of rebuilding and 4 years of trying to win.
They ought to balance out.
They don't, because he did a bad job.
Just the 4 years of "pedal to the metal, go for it!" alone only has 1 winning season, 2 .500, and 1 losing, and just barely above .500 for those 4 years. That's a pathetic payoff for 3 years of building.
Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?
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G08 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:46 pm
Moriarty wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:07 pm

He had 3 years of rebuilding and 4 years of trying to win.
They ought to balance out.
They don't, because he did a bad job.
Just the 4 years of "pedal to the metal, go for it!" alone only has 1 winning season, 2 .500, and 1 losing, and just barely above .500 for those 4 years. That's a pathetic payoff for 3 years of building.
Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?
His record is quite pathetic IMO, he should be replaced. Zero playoff wins in 7 years as GM is really the only thing that matters.
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G08 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:46 pm
Moriarty wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:07 pm

He had 3 years of rebuilding and 4 years of trying to win.
They ought to balance out.
They don't, because he did a bad job.
Just the 4 years of "pedal to the metal, go for it!" alone only has 1 winning season, 2 .500, and 1 losing, and just barely above .500 for those 4 years. That's a pathetic payoff for 3 years of building.
Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?
Everybody who has been on the job a comparable amount of time has done a better job.
dave99 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:26 am The Athletic did a piece today ranking GM’s.
They broke it down into categories based on longevity. In the category of GM’s in place for 5-9 drafts, Pace came in last:
6. Ryan Pace, Chicago Bears (.430)
The other five in order:
Jon Robinson (Titans)
Steve Keim (Cardinals)
Howie Roseman (Eagles)
Tom Telesco (Chargers)
Jason Licht (Bucs).
Once you've given someone a lot of rope (7 yrs), and you know they have done poorly, and you even know they aren't making any changes to their approach (constant trading away picks) - then it's time to move on.
The next choice could be worse, but odds are they'll be better. And any chance is better than staying with a well-known, bad quantity.

The "oh, it could be worse" fear is high on the list of why this has been a bad franchise for decades.
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dplank wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:48 pm
G08 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:46 pm

Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?
His record is quite pathetic IMO, he should be replaced. Zero playoff wins in 7 years as GM is really the only thing that matters.
I understand, I'm just asking for a name.
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Moriarty wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:54 pm
G08 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:46 pm

Who do you think would have done a better job, or who do you want to replace him that will do a better job with drafting and free agents?
Everybody who has been on the job a comparable amount of time has done a better job.
dave99 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:26 am The Athletic did a piece today ranking GM’s.
They broke it down into categories based on longevity. In the category of GM’s in place for 5-9 drafts, Pace came in last:



The other five in order:
Jon Robinson (Titans)
Steve Keim (Cardinals)
Howie Roseman (Eagles)
Tom Telesco (Chargers)
Jason Licht (Bucs).
Once you've given someone a lot of rope (7 yrs), and you know they have done poorly, and you even know they aren't making any changes to their approach (constant trading away picks) - then it's time to move on.
The next choice could be worse, but odds are they'll be better. And any chance is better than staying with a well-known, bad quantity.

The "oh, it could be worse" fear is high on the list of why this has been a bad franchise for decades.
Jon Robinson: 5 years, 58 wins 40 losses. 2 head coaches.
Steve Keim: 9 years, 75 wins, 65 losses. 3 head coaches.
Howie Rosman: 12 years, 100 wins, 95 losses. 4 head coaches.
Tom Telesco: 9 years, 68 wins, 75 losses. 3 head coaches.
Jason Licht: 8 years, 57 wins, 70 losses. 3 head coaches.


I would argue none of them entered a situation as dire as the 2015 Bears job was, coming off the worst defensive season in Chicago Bears history (to say the least).

Looking at the above, I'd say Ryan Pace is closer to Jason Licht than anything else: Ryan Pace: 7 years, 46 wins, 63 losses. 2 head coaches.
9 PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE PAST 35 SEASONS

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