Pace hot seat

[mmmc_35]

So day 1 and 2 picks as

Ballard 2017 on left pace 2015 on right

starter 10 10
2nd 4 4
3rd 1 0
ps 0 1
ir 2 1
fa 0 1


I used 2 extra years for Pace to even the picks a bit. FYI Bullard is staring in Atlanta. Also apparently Kevin White is on the saints practice squad.

[malk]

This is where I am at. I'm tired of the burn it all down model. Pace gets one more coaching hire. That's it. If he fucks it up, he's gone.

Absent burning it all down, would you be open to a scenario where Pace is fired, but his replacement is in house already? I can get there's probably a lot that was built right over the last 7 years, but I ultimately am not sure Pace is the right decision maker.

Most of the successes seem like things that a deep and effective player personnel dept does well and not big ticket decisions that a GM is more inimately responsible for. If that infrastructure is in place, maybe it just needs a new person to run it (and all credit to Pace to building it)

I think drafting is easily Pace's best attribute as a GM, partially as I don't rate him much in the other areas, but I would be interested to know how much of that comes down to the team he has? Don't get me wrong, that team is his responsibility and his hires so their success is his success. Just genuinely wondering.

But on his picks, the Tribune has a breakdown here https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/b ... story.html.

Round 1.

You have a bust (White), two failures that didn't get a 2nd contract (Floyd, Trubisky) and a difference maker in Smith, i.e. not someone who should be just labelled a starter.

Round 2.

Goldman is a difference maker, though the injuries and last year leave a bit of a question mark. Whitehair is a very solid starter. Daniels is starting and decent but agree with the jury still out designation. Shaheen was a bust and Miller a failure.

Round 3.

Montgomery is a very solid starter and has upside to be a difference maker. Bullard and Gasu both failures.

So at the top end of the draft, 12 picks, 3 difference makers (I'm including Montgomery) and a solid starter. I like that three of the four players still with us are much better than just starters, Whitehair is up there as well and gingers crossed for Daniels. But 41.7% [edit: corrected from 33% listed earlier] still on the roster isn't great from the first three rounds.

Round 4.

Jackson is a difference maker, admittedly one that's giving a fair few of us some pause at the moment. Cohen is a starting calibre player despite his gadgety role. Kwiatkoski is a fringe starter but no longer on the team. Bush is a good depth player. Then Iyiegbuniwe, Ridley, Hall and Langford are all failures.

Round 5.

Amos is, imo, a difference maker. But's FFS he's no longer on the team. Howard was, imo, a difference maker. But's FFS he's no longer on the team. But admittedly he didn't go on to do much after he left and running backs are strange beasts. Nichols is now a solid starter. Morgan didn't work out.

Round 6.

Houston-Carson is depth. Shelly the jury is out on. Fitts and Fabuluje didn't work out.

Round 7.

Braverman, Wims, Whyte and Denmark didn't work out.

So from these later picks, picking out Jackson, Nichols, Amos and Howard is great but only Jackson was resigned and we'll see if we can keep Nichols around. Not to take away from the drafting though, plus Cohen was a nice pick. Out of 20 later round picks 25% being starter quality is pretty good and when three of those are difference makers it's very nice indeed.

So overall, a bit disappointing at the top end, better lower down but it points back to his poor cap management that means we weren't able to retain some key bits of our own talent and that's criminal.

[malk]

I should add, for all the grief we're giving Nagy at the moment, if you'd have been told that Pace's first proper HC hire would be 30-22 without a losing season I don't think we'd be calling that a blown hire. Yes the bare record doesn't cover everything and there are some legit question marks around Trubisky's development but even as someone who wants Pace replaced, the Nagy hire isn't the smoking gun for me.

[dplank]

Good breakdown Malk. JMO, but I think if drafting is the best aspect of your GM, he must do a whole lot better than 33% retention of his top picks. It should be well over 50% IMO, that miss rate is pretty startling. Those are high picks in those rounds as well, not just mid/late 1st and 2nd rounders but high ones, which just makes it worse.

[The Cooler King]

Pace's first proper HC hire

*eyes roll all the way to back of skull*

Anyways it's not like I'm a single issue coaching hire guy with Pace. Maybe he would improve given another hire. But there is still an overall lack of body of work that really enthused me about committing a other 4 years to Pace.

Do I think he's on the verge of ranking us to Jets level futility? No. But pushing out 8-8 seasons among one fluky great season does have me wanting to search for more.

[malk]

Good breakdown Malk. JMO, but I think if drafting is the best aspect of your GM, he must do a whole lot better than 33% retention of his top picks. It should be well over 50% IMO, that miss rate is pretty startling. Those are high picks in those rounds as well, not just mid/late 1st and 2nd rounders but high ones, which just makes it worse.

I've just corrected that now actually, it should have been 41.7%, 5 from 12.

I still agree with you though I'd probably allow a rate where we are now if you're really hitting on difference makers, all pros etc. Just on the basis that average starters can be picked up in free agency whereas getting the top end guys via the draft brings huge benefits.

I'm not sure how much it's a conscious decision to go for ceiling over floor but, and obviously this is the ideal, if he could keep finding gems whilst upgrading his other picks by a category each, so the busts contribute a bit but don't get another deal, those that don't get another deal instead become depth, the depth/fringe starters become low end but solid starters etc... well that then becomes excellent drafting.

[malk]

Pace's first proper HC hire

*eyes roll all the way to back of skull*

Anyways it's not like I'm a single issue coaching hire guy with Pace. Maybe he would improve given another hire. But there is still an overall lack of body of work that really enthused me about committing a other 4 years to Pace.

Do I think he's on the verge of ranking us to Jets level futility? No. But pushing out 8-8 seasons among one fluky great season does have me wanting to search for more.

I want Pace gone and think his handling of the cap and free agency is more than sufficient grounds. I just don't think it's necessary say that Fox was 100% on him to make that case.

[dave99]

Good breakdown Malk. JMO, but I think if drafting is the best aspect of your GM, he must do a whole lot better than 33% retention of his top picks. It should be well over 50% IMO, that miss rate is pretty startling. Those are high picks in those rounds as well, not just mid/late 1st and 2nd rounders but high ones, which just makes it worse.

I've just corrected that now actually, it should have been 41.7%, 5 from 12.

I still agree with you though I'd probably allow a rate where we are now if you're really hitting on difference makers, all pros etc. Just on the basis that average starters can be picked up in free agency whereas getting the top end guys via the draft brings huge benefits.

I'm not sure how much it's a conscious decision to go for ceiling over floor but, and obviously this is the ideal, if he could keep finding gems whilst upgrading his other picks by a category each, so the busts contribute a bit but don't get another deal, those that don't get another deal instead become depth, the depth/fringe starters become low end but solid starters etc... well that then becomes excellent drafting.

If Angelo was all about floors, Pace seems to focus almost solely on ceilings. This works out better in later rounds where you guessing and gambling anyway, but tends to backfire in early rounds when you are looking for immediate impact at a relatively low cost.

[dplank]

...and then there's Emery. Standing on that cold, clean edge of change - breathless. He seemed to value incompetence above all else.

[The Cooler King]

Emery didn't build up a big sample, but he did have the best 1st round record of either 3, funny enough.

Or more sad than funny.

[karhu]

So overall, a bit disappointing at the top end, better lower down but it points back to his poor cap management that means we weren't able to retain some key bits of our own talent and that's criminal.

Nice breakdown; thanks. The other thing that jumps out at me is the sheer paucity of picks. If you're going to skimp on quality, at least compensate with quantity. We've done exactly the opposite.

From 2015-2020, only Atlanta used fewer picks. And even they got an extra win per year out of the deal. Carolina and Houston are right there, along with the Chargers, who have at least hit it big on some important first-rounders.

If you multiply each team's number of wins by the sheer number of draft picks it's invested, the top teams are:

New England
Seattle
Minnesota
Baltimore
Green Bay
Kansas City

Pretty good company. We're fifth from last, with these as the only worse teams in the league:

Jacksonville
Jets
Cleveland
Giants

[malk]

The draft is a bit of a crapshoot, good scouting obviously can increase your odds but so can getting more picks. *mustn't talk about Trubisky pick again*

We're going to start getting more comp picks at least, when we don't have enough cap space to resign some of our decent draft picks...

[Moriarty]

We're going to start getting more comp picks at least, when we don't have enough cap space to resign some of our decent draft picks...

Should, but not necessarily.

A poor cap/roster manager can find ways to avoid comps. Like cutting players still under contract to make room, getting 0 compensation for the cuts.
Or adding players who cost a lot and cancel comp picks, but don't add much value.

<*cough* Leno, Massie, Fuller, Dalton *cough*>

[The Cooler King]

I was hopeful Pace had turned a corner on the comp game, but they'll have none this year. Maybe just a one year thing. While I don't think you can let yourself be outsmarted with a comp focused FA strategy, it should be a necessary outcome of drafting and developing talent well, regardless of cap mgmt style via agressiveness/conservativeness.

[The Cooler King]

Oh also re: Massie and comp, that deal was originally setup with an option loophole meant to exploit comp strategy but the league closed that loophole the year after that extension. Bummer! I know Ravens were a huge exploiter of that loophole, so blame Ozzie for overusing it probably lol.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

I think drafting is easily Pace's best attribute as a GM, partially as I don't rate him much in the other areas, but I would be interested to know how much of that comes down to the team he has? Don't get me wrong, that team is his responsibility and his hires so their success is his success. Just genuinely wondering.

But on his picks, the Tribune has a breakdown here https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/b ... story.html.

Round 1.

You have a bust (White), two failures that didn't get a 2nd contract (Floyd, Trubisky) and a difference maker in Smith, i.e. not someone who should be just labelled a starter.

Round 2.

Goldman is a difference maker, though the injuries and last year leave a bit of a question mark. Whitehair is a very solid starter. Daniels is starting and decent but agree with the jury still out designation. Shaheen was a bust and Miller a failure.

Round 3.

Montgomery is a very solid starter and has upside to be a difference maker. Bullard and Gasu both failures.

So at the top end of the draft, 12 picks, 3 difference makers (I'm including Montgomery) and a solid starter. I like that three of the four players still with us are much better than just starters, Whitehair is up there as well and gingers crossed for Daniels. But 41.7% [edit: corrected from 33% listed earlier] still on the roster isn't great from the first three rounds.

Round 4.

Jackson is a difference maker, admittedly one that's giving a fair few of us some pause at the moment. Cohen is a starting calibre player despite his gadgety role. Kwiatkoski is a fringe starter but no longer on the team. Bush is a good depth player. Then Iyiegbuniwe, Ridley, Hall and Langford are all failures.

Round 5.

Amos is, imo, a difference maker. But's FFS he's no longer on the team. Howard was, imo, a difference maker. But's FFS he's no longer on the team. But admittedly he didn't go on to do much after he left and running backs are strange beasts. Nichols is now a solid starter. Morgan didn't work out.

Round 6.

Houston-Carson is depth. Shelly the jury is out on. Fitts and Fabuluje didn't work out.

Round 7.

Braverman, Wims, Whyte and Denmark didn't work out.

So from these later picks, picking out Jackson, Nichols, Amos and Howard is great but only Jackson was resigned and we'll see if we can keep Nichols around. Not to take away from the drafting though, plus Cohen was a nice pick. Out of 20 later round picks 25% being starter quality is pretty good and when three of those are difference makers it's very nice indeed.

So overall, a bit disappointing at the top end, better lower down but it points back to his poor cap management that means we weren't able to retain some key bits of our own talent and that's criminal.

Just to point out that this breakdown doesn't include the last two drafts. It's obviously early, but it's worth noting that 4 of Pace's first 5 picks from last year are currently starting and the fifth is making an impact in a rotational role. Kmet remains a question mark and it will be interesting to see how he does if Lazor continues calling the plays. Johnson looks like an impact player at CB. Gipson just had his best game as part of the edge rotation. The jury remains out on Vildor but he's not obviously being picked on by opposing teams. Mooney has been productive and could be on the verge of really breaking out.

From this year's draft it's way too early to really know, but Fields, Herbert and Tonga are all playing. Borom probably would be if it wasn't for his injury in the first game.

The above list also doesn't include undrafted FAs such as Bryce Callahan and Roy Robertson-Harris who were both excellent finds who went on to earn big money deals albeit with other teams.

I would also disagree with the designations of some players as 'failures' and 'busts' just because they didn't pan out great for the Bears. Floyd in particular was a decent player for the Bears, his production just didn't live up to his draft status. The Rams saw enough in him to sign him to a 1-year $10m prove it deal, he logged 10.5 sacks plus another couple in the playoffs and parlayed that into a 4-year $64m contract. He already has 3 sacks in the first 4 games this season. To me that suggests he was a good pick who the Bears didn't get the most from rather than a bad pick. To a considerably lesser extent the same may be true of the Shaheen, who Miami liked enough to give a 2-year $7.85m deal to. He didn't work out for the Bears and was certainly massively over-drafted, but the Dolphins obviously consider him a useful player.

[malk]

Just to point out that this breakdown doesn't include the last two drafts. It's obviously early, but it's worth noting that 4 of Pace's first 5 picks from last year are currently starting and the fifth is making an impact in a rotational role. Kmet remains a question mark and it will be interesting to see how he does if Lazor continues calling the plays. Johnson looks like an impact player at CB. Gipson just had his best game as part of the edge rotation. The jury remains out on Vildor but he's not obviously being picked on by opposing teams. Mooney has been productive and could be on the verge of really breaking out.

From this year's draft it's way too early to really know, but Fields, Herbert and Tonga are all playing. Borom probably would be if it wasn't for his injury in the first game.

The above list also doesn't include undrafted FAs such as Bryce Callahan and Roy Robertson-Harris who were both excellent finds who went on to earn big money deals albeit with other teams.

I would also disagree with the designations of some players as 'failures' and 'busts' just because they didn't pan out great for the Bears. Floyd in particular was a decent player for the Bears, his production just didn't live up to his draft status. The Rams saw enough in him to sign him to a 1-year $10m prove it deal, he logged 10.5 sacks plus another couple in the playoffs and parlayed that into a 4-year $64m contract. He already has 3 sacks in the first 4 games this season. To me that suggests he was a good pick who the Bears didn't get the most from rather than a bad pick. To a considerably lesser extent the same may be true of the Shaheen, who Miami liked enough to give a 2-year $7.85m deal to. He didn't work out for the Bears and was certainly massively over-drafted, but the Dolphins obviously consider him a useful player.

Gah, how did I miss that!

Totally unintentional but not the worst thing to miss as most are jury still out given they've only had 1.25 seasons. That said, I agree Johnson looks great (love high passes defended over interceptions) and Mooney looks very promising. Vildor has played every defensive snap so far and, as you say, hasn't been shown up. Kmet is concerning for me but it's too early so obvs jury still out. Far too early to evaluate Gipson too but he's getting snaps on a good line and that's not nothing.

Fair to point out Callahan and RRH too, getting production for cheap is always good even if they haven't stuck around.

On the failures, reading back I've given that to anyone picked in the first three rounds that isn't on the roster, bar for White and Shaheen who were busts. For the later rounds I've gone with "didn't work out". It wasn't really a conscious choice but I've clearly assigned more value to the higher picks and then been harsher on the evaluation. But still, Shaheen had 249 yards and 4 TDs in three years with us. That's a bust.

For Floyd it's a bit more complicated. 18.5 sacks, 26 TFL and 44 QB hits is definitely production. But not what we wanted and not starter quality either. So what do we say given this is an evaluation of Pace rather than the players per se. I'll stick with him being a failure, for Pace. It's down to Pace whether any player sticks on the roster and down to him who is head coach, so if it ends up that his talent evaluation is such that he picks good players but they're only good elsewhere, well, that's on him.

[RichH55]

"two failures that didn't get a 2nd contract (Floyd, Trubisky)"

They both got 2nd Contracts just not with the Bears - Floyd actually got good money

[RichH55]

"But still, Shaheen had 249 yards and 4 TDs in three years with us. That's a bust."

I AGREE - but thats also why you can't just use on Roster / 2nd Contract / Starts

Not all are created the same - take the Bullard example - He's bad at Football

[The Marshall Plan]

"two failures that didn't get a 2nd contract (Floyd, Trubisky)"

They both got 2nd Contracts just not with the Bears - Floyd actually got good money

Now if you would just compare and contrast the 2nd contract Mitch signed with that other QBs got this past offseason or their trade value.

(Hint: Sam Darnold who is a bag of shit went for three picks.)

[RichH55]

"two failures that didn't get a 2nd contract (Floyd, Trubisky)"

They both got 2nd Contracts just not with the Bears - Floyd actually got good money

Now if you would just compare and contrast the 2nd contract Mitch signed with that other QBs got this past offseason or their trade value.

(Hint: Sam Darnold who is a bag of shit went for three picks.)

Ummm- Few things. You really don't compare FA contracts to Trades - because they aren't apples to apples

I'd also speculate still that Mitch took less to go to Buffalo - I am not suggesting there was a bidding war or that he had his choice of Starting jobs or any such thing - Just I think he took the situation that is potentially best for him rather than choosing the most money in the short term

Also - Darnold struggled against Philly but he's looked pretty solid this year

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Now if you would just compare and contrast the 2nd contract Mitch signed with that other QBs got this past offseason or their trade value.

(Hint: Sam Darnold who is a bag of shit went for three picks.)

Also - Darnold struggled against Philly but he's looked pretty solid this year

Darnold has actually been very good. He may have the most rushing TD's of any QB this season. He's improved every week, and has averaged 85.1 rating, after a bad first game.

[TheWorldBreaker]

I think with the interior offensive line getting mauled in pass pro, Eddie Jackson continuing to not be worth his huge contract, and the lack of play makers at WR that was on display yesterday, there needs to be more discussion regarding Pace’s incompetence.

[southdakbearfan]

I think with the interior offensive line getting mauled in pass pro, Eddie Jackson continuing to not be worth his huge contract, and the lack of play makers at WR that was on display yesterday, there needs to be more discussion regarding Pace’s incompetence.

I guess I didn’t see them getting mauled in pass protection, I saw what appeared to be coverage sacks or the QB being indecisive for the most part. He also ran into a couple sacks. No doubt they did get burned a couple times on stunts, but that’s going to happen.

Ejax I agree with. The WR’s I don’t know if it’s them, the scheme, slow decisions from the QB or all of the above.

[TheWorldBreaker]

I think with the interior offensive line getting mauled in pass pro, Eddie Jackson continuing to not be worth his huge contract, and the lack of play makers at WR that was on display yesterday, there needs to be more discussion regarding Pace’s incompetence.

I guess I didn’t see them getting mauled in pass protection, I saw what appeared to be coverage sacks or the QB being indecisive for the most part. He also ran into a couple sacks. No doubt they did get burned a couple times on stunts, but that’s going to happen.

Ejax I agree with. The WR’s I don’t know if it’s them, the scheme, slow decisions from the QB or all of the above.

Cody Whitehair got whipped bad twice by the Packers DT twice on the last drive, and Mustipher got pushed into Fields lap on multiple occasions, when the Packers lineman grabbed Fields by the neck…that was Mustipher.

Who at the WR position for the Bears do you think keeps opposing DC’s awake at night? Maybe they could be more effective in a better scheme but I don’t think anyone is scary to opposing teams.

[southdakbearfan]

I guess I didn’t see them getting mauled in pass protection, I saw what appeared to be coverage sacks or the QB being indecisive for the most part. He also ran into a couple sacks. No doubt they did get burned a couple times on stunts, but that’s going to happen.

Ejax I agree with. The WR’s I don’t know if it’s them, the scheme, slow decisions from the QB or all of the above.

Cody Whitehair got whipped bad twice by the Packers DT twice on the last drive, and Mustipher got pushed into Fields lap on multiple occasions, when the Packers lineman grabbed Fields by the neck…that was Mustipher.

Who at the WR position for the Bears do you think keeps opposing DC’s awake at night? Maybe they could be more effective in a better scheme but I don’t think anyone is scary to opposing teams.

So, whitehair got whipped twice and mustipher got pushed back. Whitehair is a better than average guard and centers often get pushed back depending on the play and how many are coming at him, he also is a pup in terms of experience and I would expect improvement from him as well. I am not saying they were great by any means but a lot of issues are coming from the natural growing pains of a rookie QB. JF1’s pocket presence is still on a learning curve, mainly related to how long he can wait to move. I think he will get there but right now he is taking 1/4 second to long and getting tripped up when moving or evading.

How many nfl Wr’s keep DC’s awake at night? Not very many and most of those have a top tier veteran QB operating their offense. Is Adam’s the same threat without Rogers? DK Metcalf sure looks pedestrian with Geno at the helm.

Growing pains are the biggest issue I see, and you have to work through them with a rookie QB.

[TheWorldBreaker]

Cody Whitehair got whipped bad twice by the Packers DT twice on the last drive, and Mustipher got pushed into Fields lap on multiple occasions, when the Packers lineman grabbed Fields by the neck…that was Mustipher.

Who at the WR position for the Bears do you think keeps opposing DC’s awake at night? Maybe they could be more effective in a better scheme but I don’t think anyone is scary to opposing teams.

So, whitehair got whipped twice and mustipher got pushed back. Whitehair is a better than average guard and centers often get pushed back depending on the play and how many are coming at him, he also is a pup in terms of experience and I would expect improvement from him as well. I am not saying they were great by any means but a lot of issues are coming from the natural growing pains of a rookie QB. JF1’s pocket presence is still on a learning curve, mainly related to how long he can wait to move. I think he will get there but right now he is taking 1/4 second to long and getting tripped up when moving or evading.

How many nfl Wr’s keep DC’s awake at night? Not very many and most of those have a top tier veteran QB operating their offense. Is Adam’s the same threat without Rogers? DK Metcalf sure looks pedestrian with Geno at the helm.

Growing pains are the biggest issue I see, and you have to work through them with a rookie QB.

Every elite team in the NFL has receivers that scare other teams.

Mustipher doesn’t have the physical tools to be a starting center in the NFL. Centers get pushed back when they’re not good and getting physically dominated which is the norm for Mustipher.

And getting beat happens but getting whipped like you’re a tackling dummy on consecutive plays can’t happen, especially when it’s a critical series and you’re on a big money contract. Whitehair was an above average guard but he hasn’t played like it this year.

Adams would be a threat on any team because he’s big and fast and runs good routes.

The Bears have big and slow (Robinson) and small and fast.

Fields had his ups and downs and played like a rookie but it is a fact that the Bears have no play makers that can take the burden off of him. Montgomery was the closest.

This is not a well constructed team.

[RichH55]

Look when you need to make it out like Allen Robinson is flat out bad or average as a WR -

You should know you are overcorrecting and/or apologizing for QB play.

Robinson is no better or worse than he's ever been - Which is to say he's a good NFL WR (just not top 8)

Sorry for the truth - i.e. Trolling!!!!

[TheWorldBreaker]

Look when you need to make it out like Allen Robinson is flat out bad or average as a WR -

You should know you are overcorrecting and/or apologizing for QB play.

Robinson is no better or worse than he's ever been - Which is to say he's a good NFL WR (just not top 8)

Sorry for the truth - i.e. Trolling!!!!

Robinson is a good WR but he’s not elite.

[RichH55]

Look when you need to make it out like Allen Robinson is flat out bad or average as a WR -

You should know you are overcorrecting and/or apologizing for QB play.

Robinson is no better or worse than he's ever been - Which is to say he's a good NFL WR (just not top 8)

Sorry for the truth - i.e. Trolling!!!!

Robinson is a good WR but he’s not elite.

Which BTW was my exact take on Robinson for a while now.

But I got yelled at when I dare question "Perennial 1500 Yard WR" or "Top 7-8 WR"

But he doesn't set the world on fire when the QB can't see "NFL open" and now he's the "Short Deck" as if hes not even good

Nonsense