Josh Allen vs. Justin Fields

[G08]

Bored so I was goofing around on profootballreference.com and decided to compare Justin Fields first 5 starts to Josh Allen's first 5 starts. The results are shockingly similar:

Justin Fields
67/116 (57.76%)
746 yards
6.43 YPA
2 TDs
5 INTs
63.8 rating
20 sacks for 154 yards lost
23 rushes
106 yards
4.61 YPA
5 fumbles // 2 lost


Josh Allen
69/124 (55.65%)
758 yards
6.11 YPA
2 TDs
5 INTs
62.5 rating
18 sacks for 151 yards lost
31 rushes
129 yards
4.16 YPA
4 fumbles // 1 lost

[Hema2.0]

It's that bad, isnt it?

[G08]

It's that bad, isnt it?

Thus far, 100%. Gives me *some* comfort that the kid can grow from this.

[Hema2.0]

It's that bad, isnt it?

Thus far, 100%. Gives me *some* comfort that the kid can grow from this.

Not a chance with the current regime grooming the kid. I'm broken and see no hope with this franchise. And yet, here I am. FML

[Hema2.0]

The similarities are absurd, I must say. Maybe I'll step back from the edge for a moment.

[Umbali]

Fields is NOT the problem. We HAVE to have the right coaching staff around him. Sadly NAGY is NOT it! ( I just violated my number one rule of posting by using CAPS to emphasize what I thought was an obvious point lol )

[Moriarty]

Moving on from comparisons of "Mitch's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" to "Justin's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" is a nice refreshing change of pace.

[G08]

Moving on from comparisons of "Mitch's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" to "Justin's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" is a nice refreshing change of pace.

Silver linings are everywhere if you look hard enough

[docc]

Uh..like that Mussolini thing.."He got the trains to run on time" ?

[karhu]

Fascinating comparison. Reason to hope.

But.

Allen was pressed into service in Buffalo's first game because Nathan Peterman tripped all over himself as a starter. And it took really special Petermanning to stand out like that, because Buffalo's entire offense stunk on ice. Four of Allen's starts were against very good defenses.

He also only played a bit more than half of the last game here. Hurt his elbow against Houston (I remember because I somehow found myself relying on him in my dynasty league) and took four games to heal a ligament strain. Then he came back against some lousy defenses and put up 200/100 for a handful of games in a row.

The lesser competition helped, but I suspect that the four games off helped even more.

I'd love to see Fields end his rookie season the way Allen did. But if he doesn't, it might just be because he's waiting for the offseason to get the time for reflection, study, and mechanical work that a mid-season injury afforded Allen.

[The Marshall Plan]

And if Fields had an OL that could block his numbers would be lightyears ahead of Josh Allen's through 5 games.

That's really all we need here. An OL and I can even live with Lazor calling the plays.

[Yogi da Bear]

Fields is NOT the problem. We HAVE to have the right coaching staff around him. Sadly NAGY is NOT it! ( I just violated my number one rule of posting by using CAPS to emphasize what I thought was an obvious point lol )

The problem is the offensive line. NO system can operate without one.

[Burl]

Moving on from comparisons of "Mitch's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" to "Justin's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" is a nice refreshing change of pace.

Is it?
I feel like we're already in phase 9 of rationalizing why the QB isn't any good. (It's the line. It's the WRs. It's the coaching. Most 90+ QB rating games besides Manning. Diabetic episode. Neck too long. Too few starts in college. etc. etc.)
Like usually we save this argument for year 3 or so, but we're for some reason on a sped-up timeline.

Not saying Fields isn't any good mind you, only making the point that Bears fans are now such experts at QB apologetics we've got the arguments on standby. Hold your powder boys. We've got a long ride.

[IE]

Moving on from comparisons of "Mitch's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" to "Justin's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" is a nice refreshing change of pace.

Silver linings are everywhere if you look hard enough

That's pretty funny, Moriarty. I agree on the optimism bent, G.

Moriarty G's on solid ground here because Allen is only the poster boy because he was so bad and then not too much later he was shockingly good. Beyond Allen there are a LOT of great QBs who stumbled through a crappy stat rookie season with sub-60% completion rates and bad TD/INT ratios only to get traction and become really really good. Reality is they were really really good in the first place, and if you went back and looked you'd see the real flashes while they were struggling to get traction. JF1 is one of those, and we've seen the flashes of pin-point throws, long accuracy & tough and athleticism. Like JF1 himself said, it is only a matter of time, and he feels close(r). My eyes see what JF1 says - something that is "closer" than "far away".

A few things on Allen... let's hope JF1's better pedigree helps him improve faster than Allen as a passer. It took Allen the better part of 2 seasons to become the QB we see now. His second season stats were also not great, and he still only put up a 58% completion rate and an 85 rating. His TD/INT ratio improved to 2:1 but he was also sacked almost 40 times his second season in spite of his running ability. And then on the subject of his running, his rushing stats were good from the start. And personally I'd like to see JF1 rushing more like Allen did. He's big and strong and tough. He'll be fine. He should get 5 rushing TDs in the next 10 games. I like the run option they used with him at the goal line in one early game. He was a little late on his decision and it failed. But that's a scary thing for the D to defend. So naturally we haven't seen it much.

[Moriarty]

Moving on from comparisons of "Mitch's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" to "Justin's numbers so far to other QBs who became great" is a nice refreshing change of pace.

Is it?
I feel like we're already in phase 9 of rationalizing why the QB isn't any good. (It's the line. It's the WRs. It's the coaching. Most 90+ QB rating games besides Manning. Diabetic episode. Neck too long. Too few starts in college. etc. etc.)
Like usually we save this argument for year 3 or so, but we're for some reason on a sped-up timeline.

Not saying Fields isn't any good mind you, only making the point that Bears fans are now such experts at QB apologetics we've got the arguments on standby. Hold your powder boys. We've got a long ride.

Yeah, we should definitely have template forms saved where you just have to fill in a couple words or numbers about why the QB is bad now, but will still be good.




(FTR reminder - Fields is the first high QB pick in 30 years that I've been on board with. And I still am somewhat optimistic for his future. But I do think the possibility that a full year behind a terrible line, under the moronic tutelage of Matt Nagy, wrecks him is very real.)

[G08]

The over-arching point I am trying to make for Les Misérables of this board is that just because he looks like trash now does not mean this is the final product.

Allen was shockingly awful his rookie year, and to see our rookie producing just as poorly through 5 starts lets me know there, in fact, could be a legitimate learning curve for the young man.

@Moriarty if you want to be jaded and expect the worst, by all means have at it. I can't be that guy when it comes to the Chicago Bears. I'm certainly more jaded than I was in my youth, but if one of my deepest passions in life is seen through a pessimistic lens, I sure as hell need to find a better passion/hobby.

[Grizzled]

Allen was considered underperforming his first year in Buffalo. Brian Daboll is credited with straightening him out. Justin Herbert has a great rookie year but few QBs do. Peyton Manning set an NFL record for INTs his first year. It is difficult to judge Fields' performance with a porous OL, playcalling which wouldn't fool a high school D, coaches telling him there are 12 men on the field so he has a free play when there isn't, etc.

[G08]

Is it?
I feel like we're already in phase 9 of rationalizing why the QB isn't any good. (It's the line. It's the WRs. It's the coaching. Most 90+ QB rating games besides Manning. Diabetic episode. Neck too long. Too few starts in college. etc. etc.)
Like usually we save this argument for year 3 or so, but we're for some reason on a sped-up timeline.

Not saying Fields isn't any good mind you, only making the point that Bears fans are now such experts at QB apologetics we've got the arguments on standby. Hold your powder boys. We've got a long ride.

I get what you're saying, but it's still so early in the kid's career. I don't know if @Yogi da Bear's post got to me a bit, but I could see a track where this team starts to ascend after the bye week. If the defense plays as a top 10 unit and Justin Fields makes incremental progress each week, I can see wins here:

49ers
Steelers
Lions
Vikings
Seahawks
Giants
Vikings

I'm trying to remind myself that we have reinforcements coming on the OL (Borom, Ifedi, Wilkinson) and RB (Montgomery). Protect the kid, run the ball, lean on your defense and you could sneak into the playoffs.

Back on topic, Josh Allen did play better his rookie season after their bye week.

[Artbest]

IMO, for a variety of reasons, right now, Fields SUCKS - in epic fashion. Does that mean he'll always suck? No - but right now? He BLOWS.

Josh Allen, similarly, was AWFUL at a similar stage of his rookie season. Having Brian Daboll coach him vs. Nagy/Lazor/Defilippo, arguably, gave Allen a leg up on #1. Ted Nguyen has a nice article in the Athletic re: how the Bears are using Fields - and why it's (arguably) the wrong approach.

Still, while Fields is more physically talented than Mitchell Trubisky, the latter wasn't THIS horrendous as a rookie. The issue with Mitch imo is that , in year 3, he twice - at home on national TV - QB'd the Bears to 3 points over 4 quarters.

[dplank]

Yea I can see it being a possibility G08. We lost 6 straight last year and looked like absolute garbage in the process (meaning, bad/ugly type losses), and still got in. But, it's worth remembering that we started the year 5-1 so we had a cushion that we don't have this year. IMO we needed to win at least one, if not both of the 49ers/Steelers games and Mack being out really hurts our chances of doing that. I fear by time Mack/Hicks/Borom/Jenkins/Monty are able to play for us it'll be too late. How Bears would it be to go on a late season run against some bad teams and keep Nagy around for another year?

[IE]

IMO, for a variety of reasons, right now, Fields SUCKS - in epic fashion. Does that mean he'll always suck? No - but right now? He BLOWS.

Josh Allen, similarly, was AWFUL at a similar stage of his rookie season. Having Brian Daboll coach him vs. Nagy/Lazor/Defilippo, arguably, gave Allen a leg up on #1. Ted Nguyen has a nice article in the Athletic re: how the Bears are using Fields - and why it's (arguably) the wrong approach.

Still, while Fields is more physically talented than Mitchell Trubisky, the latter wasn't THIS horrendous as a rookie. The issue with Mitch imo is that , in year 3, he twice - at home on national TV - QB'd the Bears to 3 points over 4 quarters.

Unless you're way older than me - I mean WAY older... you've never ever seen a Bear QB make throws that accurately from that distanace, or hitting a guy in stride like he's shown he can do with ease and confidence. Or reliably get first downs by beating a defender around the edge.

Yet you label the promising future with the same label you'd put on Moses Moreno or Jon Quinn. I smell recency bias (against).

[G08]

Still, while Fields is more physically talented than Mitchell Trubisky, the latter wasn't THIS horrendous as a rookie. The issue with Mitch imo is that , in year 3, he twice - at home on national TV - QB'd the Bears to 3 points over 4 quarters.

*checks the stats*

Thus far, you are correct.

[Burl]

Mitch had Jordan Howard and Tarik in the backfield that year, but he was also throwing to Josh Bellamy and Dontrelle Inman.
At TE, Dion Sims and Shaheen. Holy crap.

On the OL: Sitton, Massie, Leno, Whitehair, Grasu ...

[Grizzled]

IMO, for a variety of reasons, right now, Fields SUCKS - in epic fashion. Does that mean he'll always suck? No - but right now? He BLOWS.

Josh Allen, similarly, was AWFUL at a similar stage of his rookie season. Having Brian Daboll coach him vs. Nagy/Lazor/Defilippo, arguably, gave Allen a leg up on #1. Ted Nguyen has a nice article in the Athletic re: how the Bears are using Fields - and why it's (arguably) the wrong approach.

Still, while Fields is more physically talented than Mitchell Trubisky, the latter wasn't THIS horrendous as a rookie. The issue with Mitch imo is that , in year 3, he twice - at home on national TV - QB'd the Bears to 3 points over 4 quarters.

Unless you're way older than me - I mean WAY older... you've never ever seen a Bear QB make throws that accurately from that distanace, or hitting a guy in stride like he's shown he can do with ease and confidence. Or reliably get first downs by beating a defender around the edge.

Yet you label the promising future with the same label you'd put on Moses Moreno or Jon Quinn. I smell recency bias (against).

I do go way back with the Bears and have seen them all. Jimmy Mac could throw a good deep ball but he couldn't beat a grandma around the edge. Kramer. Other guys had arms but seemed to hit the other team as often as the Bears WR.

[Artbest]

I recognize Fields' immense arm talent - he's made some throws that we rarely see in Chicago. He's also EXTREMELY tough - as resilient as any QB the Bears have had in recent memory. At present, however, he's not a good QB - can he be? Sure - will he be? It remains to be seen.

I don't like to overly belabor the coaching and supporting cast, but I think it's fair to surmise that it's less than optimal for a rookie QB.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I’m happy that Fields is making all his errors as a rookie.
That’s what being a rookie is all about, learning the game, appreciating the step up in difficulty and pace.
Realising that your “get out of jail cards” which always worked in college won’t always work in NFL.

Seriously how many starts has he had?
Calm your skin down, Fields is a rookie who’s learning the NFL. Stats mean jack all this year to me.
I don’t want the best rookie the bears have ever had, I want a franchise QB. That means he has to learn the game, it may not happen for him next year either, but he’ll get there

[Richie]

Bored so I was goofing around on profootballreference.com and decided to compare Justin Fields first 5 starts to Josh Allen's first 5 starts. The results are shockingly similar:

Justin Fields
67/116 (57.76%)
746 yards
6.43 YPA
2 TDs
5 INTs
63.8 rating
20 sacks for 154 yards lost
23 rushes
106 yards
4.61 YPA
5 fumbles // 2 lost


Josh Allen
69/124 (55.65%)
758 yards
6.11 YPA
2 TDs
5 INTs
62.5 rating
18 sacks for 151 yards lost
31 rushes
129 yards
4.16 YPA
4 fumbles // 1 lost

This has nothing to do with my view of Fields future (I still like him). However, I hate these sort of anecdotal comparisons. I remember you doing this with Mitch and other QB's as well. Your signature was a Brees vs Mitch comparison that you updated by game for like two years. I'm not trying to bring that back... just saying.

If I go out and find a bust or a career backup who started out with similar numbers to Fields. Would that play a part in convincing you he's a bust or a career backup?

Let's evaluate Fields by his own play. So far, it has sucked. That being said - he absolutely has a lot of talent that I hope we can develop. Whether it can be done by this staff or if we need to bring in another.

[Richie]

Fields is NOT the problem. We HAVE to have the right coaching staff around him. Sadly NAGY is NOT it! ( I just violated my number one rule of posting by using CAPS to emphasize what I thought was an obvious point lol )

We don't know what the issue is yet. Maybe it is Fields... maybe it isn't. It's too early. All I know is that he has played at a very poor level thus far.

Most QB's struggle to some degree early. Let's see if he improves as the season goes on under Nagy. If not, yes, we probably clean house.

Hell... we probably clean house if we miss the playoffs anyway.

[Magnum_Ursus]

Say it with me
Rookie QBs

Herbert last year was a historic exception. Most Rookie QBs are going to look bad, to some degree or another. Fields has looked bad against 4 playoff teams. That was expected even without considering the triage unit that passes for our OTs right now.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

Fields, like Trubisky before him, is hampered massively by a porous O-line and receivers who get little separation and drop key throws on an alarmingly regular basis.

It's tough enough to play QB in the NFL as it is. This team is simply not set up to help any QB, let alone a rookie, succeed.

This is true for most highly-touted college QBs because they almost always wind up playing for teams who outright sucked the year before and therefore had a very high draft pick. The likes of Mahomes, Watson and Jackson were extremely fortunate to be drafted by teams with winning records. It undoubtedly eased their transition into the NFL.

Now the Bears actually didn't have an awful record last year, but the defense has carried the team ever since Nagy's arrival so as far as a mature, functional offense goes Fields still landed in a terrible place. The team continues to tread water under Nagy's offensive leadership whereas team's like the Bills manage to turn things around and give their young QB a chance.

To give Fields any opportunity to progress this year changes have to be made to the O-line. Fields has shown he can make throws even into tight windows, but he can only do that if he has time to throw and as a rookie he needs that little bit extra on top. With the Bears success running the ball, there is no way he should be getting pressured so quickly so frequently. Trotting Mustipher out there week-after-week is just inane. They need to bolster that interior immediately. Throwing an unprepared Simmons to the wolves when you have Bars was beyond stupid in the last game. Fields rapport with his receivers isn't there because he got next to no first team reps prior to being named the starter. At least he's now taking steps himself to try to do something about this because his coaches simply cannot help but make bad situations worse either through inaction or action. It shouldn't be this way.