Whither Thou ARob?

[spudbear]

Now that we're at that wonderful point of the season where the Bears are below .500 and we wonder how Pace should spend his limited draft picks, WR is at the top of the draft list. It's at the top in no small part due to the relative disappearance of Allen Robinson III who is paid to be WR1 but is producing like #3.

I suppose when your QB doesn't have time to throw it then numbers could be down. There seems to be more going on, giving up on routes, tepid blocking and more drops. At a time when the offense needs a leader with a rookie QB developing, ARob has been quiet. Does he have much left in the tank or are we seeing the downside of his career?

I put a few choices up and maybe there are others. I would have to guess the last one. He may not necessarily tanking but he doesn't have the extra to make some big plays.

[The Marshall Plan]

I think ARob is mentally done.

He really does (or at least did) have talent. The problem is that his QBs have been Bortles, Mitch and Foles. Then it looks like he finally gets a QB with some talent and the OL can't block long enough for any decent route to develop.

[Moriarty]

"Secretly misses Mitch" made me laugh.


But, after considering the other choices and thinking about it, I think that really is closest to the correct answer.


Fields surveys options, sees Robinson has little separation, and says "screw it, I'm not throwing into tight coverage like that".
Mitch used to survey options, say "OMG, what should I do? Screw it, I'll just throw it to Robinson".


The latter was a lot better for Robinson's career, numbers, and attitude.

[HurricaneBear]

I'm guessing personal problems outside of football would include - "doesnt want to play without a long term contract"?

[IE]

Wrong Way Robinson is on the down side of his career. Just ... bye bye to his angry face.

If he wanted to be in synch with JF1 he could have spent his own time in the offseason working out with him like Goodwin did (not that it helped much, since he's probably been down field once all season... grrr).

[wab]

Sounds like there's some teeth to the Saints rumors.

[Grizzled]

I think it's in his head but I'm confused. He's making the franchise player WR salary this year. He doesn't like it despite it being a big chunk of change. But then he's hardly playing to a level justifying a team signing him to a big contract next year. At this point, trading him before Nov. 2 is the best solution.

[Burl]

I think it's in his head but I'm confused. He's making the franchise player WR salary this year. He doesn't like it despite it being a big chunk of change. But then he's hardly playing to a level justifying a team signing him to a big contract next year. At this point, trading him before Nov. 2 is the best solution.

Question for those with more knowledge than I have.

Do you think Arob would garner greater value in a mid-season trade or in a comp pick as he's lost to FA?

My suspicion is that with his salary, and only 10 games left under contract, plus his relative lack of production this year, I don't think we'd find anyone willing to send a 4th for him.

But on paper, a franchise tagged WR lost to FA sounds like it's worth quite a bit more. Maybe a 3rd?

The win-win seems to be to keep him on the roster for Fields and then also reap what he's worth in a comp pick.

[Grizzled]

I think it's in his head but I'm confused. He's making the franchise player WR salary this year. He doesn't like it despite it being a big chunk of change. But then he's hardly playing to a level justifying a team signing him to a big contract next year. At this point, trading him before Nov. 2 is the best solution.

Question for those with more knowledge than I have.

Do you think Arob would garner greater value in a mid-season trade or in a comp pick as he's lost to FA?

My suspicion is that with his salary, and only 10 games left under contract, plus his relative lack of production this year, I don't think we'd find anyone willing to send a 4th for him.

But on paper, a franchise tagged WR lost to FA sounds like it's worth quite a bit more. Maybe a 3rd?

The win-win seems to be to keep him on the roster for Fields and then also reap what he's worth in a comp pick.

You bring up a great point. If he doesn't bring at least a 2nd, hold him for the comp pick, which should be a 3rd.

[wab]

Question for those with more knowledge than I have.

Do you think Arob would garner greater value in a mid-season trade or in a comp pick as he's lost to FA?

My suspicion is that with his salary, and only 10 games left under contract, plus his relative lack of production this year, I don't think we'd find anyone willing to send a 4th for him.

But on paper, a franchise tagged WR lost to FA sounds like it's worth quite a bit more. Maybe a 3rd?

The win-win seems to be to keep him on the roster for Fields and then also reap what he's worth in a comp pick.

You bring up a great point. If he doesn't bring at least a 2nd, hold him for the comp pick, which should be a 3rd.

No way I'd hold him for a potential comp pick, because that can be offset by a signing. If the best you can get a 3rd for him now, you take the 3rd now.

The only reason to hold onto him for a comp pick is if he is both playing well and unwilling to re-sign in the offseason.

[UOK]

Why isn't, "hates that he was tagged and is dogging it to stay healthy so he can get paid this offseason" an option?

[Grizzled]

You bring up a great point. If he doesn't bring at least a 2nd, hold him for the comp pick, which should be a 3rd.

No way I'd hold him for a potential comp pick, because that can be offset by a signing. If the best you can get a 3rd for him now, you take the 3rd now.

The only reason to hold onto him for a comp pick is if he is both playing well and unwilling to re-sign in the offseason.

Isn't a team eligible if they lose more guys than they sign as free agents? I know Hicks' contract is also up and he's probably gone. Daniels might be. Nichols also but I believe they'll try to re-sign him.

[wab]

No way I'd hold him for a potential comp pick, because that can be offset by a signing. If the best you can get a 3rd for him now, you take the 3rd now.

The only reason to hold onto him for a comp pick is if he is both playing well and unwilling to re-sign in the offseason.

Isn't a team eligible if they lose more guys than they sign as free agents? I know Hicks' contract is also up and he's probably gone. Daniels might be. Nichols also but I believe they'll try to re-sign him.

It's a pretty convoluted formula that has to do with players lost and what they signed for, players gained and what they signed for, where thos contracts fall within certain percentiles etc...

Here's a comprehensive explination if you are bored or can't sleep.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-m ... aft-picks/

[spudbear]

Why isn't, "hates that he was tagged and is dogging it to stay healthy so he can get paid this offseason" an option?

That's a good one. The last one comes a little close to that, though he is getting paid this season. With the other names we keep hearing as potential FA WR's you'd think he would be selling himself a little better if he's really concerned about BIG MUNY next year. He was the one that would get snagged for a post-game interview on TV. Now not so much.

[Xee]

Why isn't, "hates that he was tagged and is dogging it to stay healthy so he can get paid this offseason" an option?

The only issue I have with that is it's assuming that teams will look at his prior body of work but ignore this season. I really believe his performance this year has wrecked his chance of another team opening up their wallet for him.

[Moriarty]

No way I'd hold him for a potential comp pick, because that can be offset by a signing. If the best you can get a 3rd for him now, you take the 3rd now.

The only reason to hold onto him for a comp pick is if he is both playing well and unwilling to re-sign in the offseason.

Isn't a team eligible if they lose more guys than they sign as free agents? I know Hicks' contract is also up and he's probably gone. Daniels might be. Nichols also but I believe they'll try to re-sign him.

Sort of.

• They have to be 'big enough' losses to qualify. Mostly based on contract size, but not entirely, IIRC. There's a threshold.
• Cuts don't count as + or -
• There's artificial limits - you can only get so many comps in one year and only the top 32 comps are 'paid out' (if your qualifying loss was 34th highest, tough shit to you). And if there's under 32 qualified, they pad out by giving the worst teams extra R7 picks, until they hit 32 handouts.

[Moriarty]

Why isn't, "hates that he was tagged and is dogging it to stay healthy so he can get paid this offseason" an option?

The only issue I have with that is it's assuming that teams will look at his prior body of work but ignore this season. I really believe his performance this year has wrecked his chance of another team opening up their wallet for him.

Yeah, that's a definite possibility.

I didn't think he was worth what he wanted before this, but regardless, what I would be willing to give him in 2022 has absolutely gone down.

And so that has to be considered when you think about the potential comp, too. Is it possible he's not getting you a R3 any more? (The threshold last year was approx 15M)

[Grizzled]

The only issue I have with that is it's assuming that teams will look at his prior body of work but ignore this season. I really believe his performance this year has wrecked his chance of another team opening up their wallet for him.

Yeah, that's a definite possibility.

I didn't think he was worth what he wanted before this, but regardless, what I would be willing to give him in 2022 has absolutely gone down.

And so that has to be considered when you think about the potential comp, too. Is it possible he's not getting you a R3 any more? (The threshold last year was approx 15M)

I believe the 2021 franchise pay for a WR is approximately $15.6M.

[Grizzled]

Isn't a team eligible if they lose more guys than they sign as free agents? I know Hicks' contract is also up and he's probably gone. Daniels might be. Nichols also but I believe they'll try to re-sign him.

It's a pretty convoluted formula that has to do with players lost and what they signed for, players gained and what they signed for, where thos contracts fall within certain percentiles etc...

Here's a comprehensive explination if you are bored or can't sleep.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-m ... aft-picks/

[Moriarty]

Yeah, that's a definite possibility.

I didn't think he was worth what he wanted before this, but regardless, what I would be willing to give him in 2022 has absolutely gone down.

And so that has to be considered when you think about the potential comp, too. Is it possible he's not getting you a R3 any more? (The threshold last year was approx 15M)

I believe the 2021 franchise pay for a WR is approximately $15.6M.

Not sure what you're getting at.

Comp formula uses the new pay, not what Bears are paying out this year, if that's what you mean.

[Mikefive]

How about... All of the WRs are struggling because Fields didn't play with the 1's all preseason or the first few games. So little opportunity to develop cohesion is coming to fruition.

As far as ARob goes, his performance so far really makes me wonder if we'd get a R3 comp pick for him.

[crueltyabc]

Lol

[wab]

Like, I get it, but I'm so tired of this dude.

[crueltyabc]

I'm just happy to hear when people inside are seeing the same thing we see from the outside

EDIT: OK I also enjoy people pissing on Nagy's grave

[wab]

Is there a chance he comes back now that Nagy is gone? I'd prefer he move on.

[The Marshall Plan]

ARob had 410 yards receiving this past year.

Somehow we'll manage without him.

[crueltyabc]

Is there a chance he comes back now that Nagy is gone? I'd prefer he move on.

It feels like there's too much water under the bridge between ARob and the entire Bears community. Most of the benefits of staying are about loving the city of chicago and wanting to retire here with an established brand and I can't believe that rehab is going to come easy. His agent seems pretty aggro and I bet that guy is saying fuck Chicago

[wab]

Is there a chance he comes back now that Nagy is gone? I'd prefer he move on.

It feels like there's too much water under the bridge between ARob and the entire Bears community. Most of the benefits of staying are about loving the city of chicago and wanting to retire here with an established brand and I can't believe that rehab is going to come easy. His agent seems pretty aggro and I bet that guy is saying fuck Chicago

I agree that their might be too much animosity between Robinson and all things Chicago/Bears. But I can't imagine he's going to get a big payday coming off of a 400 yard season.

The Bears are going to have to be reasonably cautious spenders, and if he'd come back for a reasonable 2 year deal, I guess I could be convinced it's a good idea.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

If he'd shown more chemistry with Fields in the few games where they both actually played then I might consider it. If he'd actually shown some effort when the ball wasn't coming his way or in his hands then I might consider it. As it is, he just dialled it in all season and if I'm the new GM that's not the type of player I'd want.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I think he let his team mates down with a lack of application - so wave goodbye