2022 Outlook

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Z Bear
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33 players under contract for next year but 7 of those are expiring contracts in which we will only have dead cap hits. So the Bears will roll into next year with around $50M in cap room but only 26 players (if no more cuts are made). Just over $16M in dead cap hits already on the books for next year. Click the link below and go to 2022 to see the details but I pulled the cap hit and what happens if cut below. Offense: $52,959,248; Defense: $107,311,775; Special: $3,175,000 is what were are on the books for. Pretty much anyone not name Justin Fields is cuttable so this is a perfect time to start over with a new GM.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears/

Player Cap Number [Dead Money & Cap Savings/(Cost)]
Khalil Mack $30,150,000 [$27,000,000 = $3,150,000]
Robert Quinn $17,137,500 [$12,712,500 = $4,425,000]
Eddie Goldman $11,810,407 [$5,150,000 = $6,660,407]
Nick Foles $10,666,668 [$7,666,668 = $3,000,000]
Roquan Smith $9,735,000 [$9,735,000 = $0.00]
Cody Whitehair $12,300,000 [$12,500,000 = ($200,000)]
Eddie Jackson $15,090,000 [$18,560,000 = ($3,470,000)]
Danny Trevathan $5,931,250 [$8,925,000 = $($2,993,750)
Justin Fields $4,289,080 [$15,440,688 = ($11,151,608)]
Tarik Cohen $5,750,000 [$3,500,000 = $2,250,000]
Angelo Blackson $3,000,000 [$1,000,000 = $2,000,000]
Cole Kmet $2,066,669 [$1,535,558 = $531,111]
Jeremiah Attaochu $3,100,000 [$1,200,000 = $1,900,000]
Mario Edwards [$4,224,116 [$3,786,078 = $438,038]
Cairo Santos $3,175,000 [$2,000,000 = $1,175,000]
Teven Jenkins $1,906,329 [$3,736,455 = ($1,830,126)]
Jaylon Johnson $1,764,211 [$1,132,282 = $631,929]
David Montgomery $1,226,545 [$261,545 = $965,000]
Duke Shelley $996,960 [$31,960 = $965,000]
Trevis Gipson $976,418 [$162,836 = $813,582]
Kindle Vildor $972,668 [$155,336 = $817,332]
Darnell Mooney $965,512 [$141,024 = $824,488]
Larry Borom $908,269 [$249,807 = $658,462]
Khalil Herbert $857,676 [$98,028 = $759,648]
Khyiris Tonga $845,912 [$62,736 = $783,176]
Caleb Johnson $827,333 [$4,667 = $822,666]
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dplank
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Interesting, thx for the work! Mapping this out to position/need:

QB (2) - Fields, Foles
RB (3) - Monty, Herbert, Cohen
TE (1) - Kmet
OT (2) - Jenkins, Borom
G/C (1) - Whitehair (yikes!)
WR (1) - Mooney (double yikes!)

DL (4) - Goldman, Edwards, Blackson, Tonga
OLB (4) - Mack, Quinn, Gibson, Attaochu (Mack/Quinn could shift to 4/3 DE depending on scheme change)
ILB (3) - Roquan, Trevathan, Caleb Johnson
CB (3) - JJ, Shelley, Vildor
S (1) - EJax

ST (1) - Santos

A few folks that don't appear in this view would be some practice squad guys that probably come into play next year. Eislen, Dazz Newsome jump out as guys who probably get a shot. If we drop Cohen, we have Pierce and Nall on the PS also.

Based on this I think I'd focus on a 1 year rebuild, I think the core is pretty decent. I'd get what I can for Mack and move him for picks - we still have OLB covered. I'd cut Cohen, we have RB covered. I'd wait and cut Quinn/Danny next year. These moves are mainly about 2023 cap flexibility, not 2022. I'd nab a cheap P, LS to round out ST. After adding Eislen, Dazz, Pierce, P, LS, and dropping Cohen/Mack we are at 29 players and I'll estimate roughly 53M in cap space and 5 draft picks which I'll just estimate moves up to 7 draft picks after trading Mack. So the 7 picks move us to 36 players, with 53M less rookie cap to spend on 15 players (cap is based on 51 players during off season I believe?).

I like to focus on the starting 22 as the rest of the roster can be filled in at low cost. Right now we'd be set at QB, RB, TE, OT but need 2 interior lineman and 2 WR's (assuming 11 personnel). On defense we're set at DL and LB, but need a CB and S. So WR, DB, G/C should be our impact FA signings and we need to draft around that. Shelley/Vildor are depth guys, not starters but do help fill the 53. I would not resign Nichols, Hicks, or Daniels, all will get paid better elsewhere than they are worth. Ideally we'd get a high end WR and C in here as FA's, draft an interior lineman high. Go BPA in the draft otherwise, but we must add young OL talent inside so that's the one position I'd force. I hate letting Daniels go but he's going to get overpaid I think. Looming behind all this is Roquan, who we must retain IMO.
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crueltyabc
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There's lots to debate here but I would say that the Bears should be careful to have a mix of young and veteran players in each position group. They don't need another young OT, more young CBs, and the new WRs should be a mix.

Free Agency Moves:
Trade Mack
Find a FA WR1 somehow magically - no idea how they make this happen. They shouldn't have fucked up ARobs situation
Re-sign Daniels - I'm hoping we're wrong about league interest
Probably overpay for a solid but unremarkable CB2
Seriously consider overpaying for a solid but unremarkable slot CB
Seriously consider re-signing Mustifer because there are no better options
Probably overpay for a swing tackle

Draft Plans:
Draft EDGE because this is a good class and they would hopefull have a late 20s first rounder for some team that wants Mack to help them win now
Draft Slot to compete with Dazz (2nd or 3rd rounder)
Draft ILB to sub for / replace Trevathan (mid-to-late)
Draft OG/C to develop (mid-to-late)
Draft gunner or returner (late)
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RichH55
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I don't really understand the get rid of Mack sentiment. generally

Jenkins is a massive, massive key - If he is good and Borom is good - that helps a ton. I would also bring back Peters as Swing Tackle/ Vet in Room

Guards grow on trees.

WR will be deep again in the draft - and this will probably also push down the cost of vet WR too - Our 2nd Rounder should be just about the sweet spot for a WR

CB might be our biggest Need.


I do wonder if Hicks will be an example of the "Hometown Premium" rather than hometown discount

Depth guys on Defense is generally a pretty good strength of Pace for whatever that is worth
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