What to say when it's "Too Soon To Say?"

[Magnum_Ursus]

Evaluating rookies is difficult, even more difficult when evaluating rookie QBs. From the outside looking in, it's hard to assess how much of a player's production (or lack of it) is due to the player's talent, their decision-making, the scheme, the playcalling, the opposition, etc.

In clicking around watching some of the other rookie QBs the last couple weeks, none of them look "good" to me. Trevor Lawrence is obviously talented, and that organization is also obviously terrible, with a self-destructing coaching staff. Zack Wilson looks awful, and is missing easy throws. Mac Jones is fortunate enough to be protected by arguably the best coaching staff of modern history, and they've clearly schemed to keep things within the constraints of what he can do well, but he's also been credited as being very fast mentally, and that's shown up on tape. Fields has shown talent on tape, I love his mindset, but he's also shown slow processing -- which again, is what I'd expect from a rookie QB, and it's hard to assess how much of his struggles are due to scheme and playcalling failures, or supporting cast failures, etc, which we might hope can be improved with a coaching staff transplant in the offseason.

As I'm watching these games, I'm looking for traits and development, because I don't expect great rookie QB performances. What else can you look at? What else can be said?

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

You’ll see it a Lambeau tonight

[Artbest]

I think fields will struggle mightily tonight. He figures to be (very) rusty and looked befuddled against the ravens before he got hurt.

Also - the last time the packers faced a rusty QB coming back from injury, they shutout Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

If fields can look better than the slop put forth today by Lawrence and Wilson, that will be a (moral) victory

[Teddy KGB]

There isn't much else TO look at, because we have a horrible head coach. All you can look for are "flashes" of special. If you can find that, you're in good hands in year one, regardless of record or even individual overall performance.

Fields has that "special" to him. He just needs a good coach to bring him along on everything else.

[Arkansasbear]

The one thing I see Fields MUST work on this off-season is ball security. I'm not as concerned about the picks as I am the sacks and fumbles. As they pointed out last night, he has a slight hitch in his release which slows down his release time and at times he just holds the ball too long - which likely relates back to him not processing as quickly as he needs too.

If he gets those issues ironed out, he can be special.

I'm just hopefully that the issues we see with him are more coach/scheme related and whoever takes over can get all the talent he has to rise to the top.

[wab]

The one thing I see Fields MUST work on this off-season is ball security. I'm not as concerned about the picks as I am the sacks and fumbles. As they pointed out last night, he has a slight hitch in his release which slows down his release time and at times he just holds the ball too long - which likely relates back to him not processing as quickly as he needs too.

If he gets those issues ironed out, he can be special.

I'm just hopefully that the issues we see with him are more coach/scheme related and whoever takes over can get all the talent he has to rise to the top.

When every route is a itch, that windup is going to give a defender a chance to break on the ball.

Fix the offense and Fields will be fine. The sack/fumble thing has to be corrected though.

[IE]

He does have a release that isn't prototypical. It isn't unique - a lot of QBs throw like him a lot of the time, and unconventional releases and angles are becoming more accepted in the NFL (for QBs who have demonstrated success with them, it is not only being tolerated it is being valued as a skill).

It isn't clear whether his release is something that the new regime will want to work on as much as some might think. They *might* - but it isn't certain because the speed of JF1's release isn't as much the cause of his ball security issues as bad blocking, the clock in his head improving, and probably the speed and availability of someone to throw to quickly in Nagy's *system*.

Justin wasn't super accurate last night like we've seen from him. In general to my eyes it looked like he was "off the mark" most of the night. I attribute that to rust and probably quite a bit to his ribs & how they feel. I'm not worried about his accuracy - that's already established. So if the line gets fixed, the clock improves in his head and a good NFL offense is introduced... I think JF1's release concerns are fixed by doing really nothing.

By middle of the year next year I expect JF1 to average near 300 yards a game and 40-50 rushing.

[IE]

When every route is a itch, that windup is going to give a defender a chance to break on the ball.

Nagy has chosen hitches as his destructor for his entire tenure. They're particularly frustrating when he uses guys like Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen and now Mooney on these nice routes that end up taking years off of their career from the abuse they get. Even if the defender can't completely jump it, the WR is a sitting duck. Horrible.

[RichH55]

" So if the line gets fixed, the clock improves in his head and a good NFL offense is introduced..."

Is that all?

[southdakbearfan]

I worry about his fumbles because he has smaller than ideal hand size, couple that with a slow pocket awareness so far it is a concern for sure. He definitely needs to improve in the ball security area.

The interceptions I think will be taken care of.

I see the big play flashes and accuracy. I need to see him run an offense and learn to check down and take whats there.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

My post in another thread:

I think JF1 has exceeded a lot of fans expectations and he has definitely impressed me.

I don’t need excuses for him, I think he’s doing just fine.

He tough as nails this kid, physically AND mentally.
He’s utterly dedicated to his craft and will work as hard as anyone.
He has talent in abundance - his throw and his rushing.

Seriously, how can he fail? He’ll be a franchise QB - absolutely no doubt in my mind.
He’s struggled to read defenses - well that comes with reps. It’s easier for some, but ultimately brains recognise patterns and once you’ve seen a lot of NFL defenses you’ll recognise the patterns automatically without trying.
He’s struggled to find open receivers (rarely). Well he had no pre-season with the first team receivers. This will come with reps.

He’s improving every game.
He never complains, he always takes responsibility even when that’s not appropriate.

I couldn’t be more impressed with our future franchise QB

[wab]

My post in another thread:

I think JF1 has exceeded a lot of fans expectations and he has definitely impressed me.

I don’t need excuses for him, I think he’s doing just fine.

He tough as nails this kid, physically AND mentally.
He’s utterly dedicated to his craft and will work as hard as anyone.
He has talent in abundance - his throw and his rushing.

Seriously, how can he fail? He’ll be a franchise QB - absolutely no doubt in my mind.
He’s struggled to read defenses - well that comes with reps. It’s easier for some, but ultimately brains recognise patterns and once you’ve seen a lot of NFL defenses you’ll recognise the patterns automatically without trying.
He’s struggled to find open receivers (rarely). Well he had no pre-season with the first team receivers. This will come with reps.

He’s improving every game.
He never complains, he always takes responsibility even when that’s not appropriate.

I couldn’t be more impressed with our future franchise QB

I love Justin Fields. But you could've said all of those exact same things about Joey Harrington.

[southdakbearfan]

My post in another thread:

I think JF1 has exceeded a lot of fans expectations and he has definitely impressed me.

I don’t need excuses for him, I think he’s doing just fine.

He tough as nails this kid, physically AND mentally.
He’s utterly dedicated to his craft and will work as hard as anyone.
He has talent in abundance - his throw and his rushing.

Seriously, how can he fail? He’ll be a franchise QB - absolutely no doubt in my mind.
He’s struggled to read defenses - well that comes with reps. It’s easier for some, but ultimately brains recognise patterns and once you’ve seen a lot of NFL defenses you’ll recognise the patterns automatically without trying.
He’s struggled to find open receivers (rarely). Well he had no pre-season with the first team receivers. This will come with reps.

He’s improving every game.
He never complains, he always takes responsibility even when that’s not appropriate.

I couldn’t be more impressed with our future franchise QB

I love Justin Fields. But you could've said all of those exact same things about Joey Harrington.

Yep, the big if is how guys develop.

[Grizzled]

" So if the line gets fixed, the clock improves in his head and a good NFL offense is introduced..."

Is that all?

"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

Have to put Fields into scenarios/situations in which success is more probable than what he's in now. The clock will slow down next year for him. He'll read defenses better. Hopefully a new HC and offense are brought in which are completly anti-Nagy.

[Ditka’s dictaphone]

I love Justin Fields. But you could've said all of those exact same things about Joey Harrington.

Well we’ll just have to wait and see, time will tell.

[wab]

I didn't want to create an entirely new thread for this.

[IE]

Take away the Cleveland game and his QBR jumps 10 points. Take away the Tampa game and it jumps another 10 points. Take away the half-game vs Baltimore and it jumps 10 points yet again and all of the sudden he's in the QBR range of Mac Jones who had a full offseason of prep and that support system.

Using averages with small numbers is always inadvisable. It really doesn't give us insight even though it is tempting to believe it does. Sure - bad is usually bad from the start. But even good can have a couple of rough outings and it certainly doesn't help to have a coach who effectively undermines you from the start. So who is better in their small sample - JF1, whose QBR really varies... or Trevor Lawrence who is far more consistently bad? I like JF1's company of Wilson and Lawrence. All 3 are good, in spite of their QBR which are all within one game of being the same.

[wab]

Take away the Cleveland game and his QBR jumps 10 points. Take away the Tampa game and it jumps another 10 points. Take away the half-game vs Baltimore and it jumps 10 points yet again and all of the sudden he's in the QBR range of Mac Jones who had a full offseason of prep and that support system.

Using averages with small numbers is always inadvisable. It really doesn't give us insight even though it is tempting to believe it does. Sure - bad is usually bad from the start. But even good can have a couple of rough outings and it certainly doesn't help to have a coach who effectively undermines you from the start. So who is better in their small sample - JF1, whose QBR really varies... or Trevor Lawrence who is far more consistently bad? I like JF1's company of Wilson and Lawrence. All 3 are good, in spite of their QBR which are all within one game of being the same.

To be fair...we didn't get to play the "take away x game" game with Mitch, so I'm not inclined to do it with JF either.

I personally believe JF will be a really good player in the NFL for a long time. But this year, based on stats alone, he's been as bad as that article indicates.

[dplank]

Playing in an inept system that hasn’t generated any success over 4 QBs in 4 years will generally dampen a rookies numbers.

Dalton was a middle tier NFL QB for a decade, yet comes here and he instantly sucks. He has a great deep ball and comes here and suddenly doesn’t throw any balls past 10 yards and has his lowest YPC of his career.

I think Fields is a victim here and I won’t pass any judgements until next year.

[The Marshall Plan]

Take away the Cleveland game and his QBR jumps 10 points. Take away the Tampa game and it jumps another 10 points. Take away the half-game vs Baltimore and it jumps 10 points yet again and all of the sudden he's in the QBR range of Mac Jones who had a full offseason of prep and that support system.

Using averages with small numbers is always inadvisable. It really doesn't give us insight even though it is tempting to believe it does. Sure - bad is usually bad from the start. But even good can have a couple of rough outings and it certainly doesn't help to have a coach who effectively undermines you from the start. So who is better in their small sample - JF1, whose QBR really varies... or Trevor Lawrence who is far more consistently bad? I like JF1's company of Wilson and Lawrence. All 3 are good, in spite of their QBR which are all within one game of being the same.

To be fair...we didn't get to play the "take away x game" game with Mitch, so I'm not inclined to do it with JF either.

I personally believe JF will be a really good player in the NFL for a long time. But this year, based on stats alone, he's been as bad as that article indicates.

To humorously, and also accurately, counter that.

If we subtracted all of Mitch's bad games we'd have the one great Tampa game from like when? 2018?

[Artbest]

As much as I DESPERATELY want Justin Fields to break the LONG cycle of Bears' QB futility, imo, we can't rule out the possibility that he will be another Gabbert or Christian Ponder. He has shown flashes of brilliance...and long stretches of bad. He has yet to show that he can actually run a NFL offense. Other QBs who have busted out - Sam Darnold being the most recent example - have, like Fields, been drafted into bad, dysfunctional situations surrounded by substandard coaching and personnel. Fields may be the goods, or he may be yet another in a long-line of failed first round QBs.

After showing significant progress against the 49ers and Steelers, Fields has played poorly in his last two starts. His stats against the Packers were inflated by significant RAC. Outside of those two plays, his numbers in that game were abysmal. He looked (completely) lost against the Ravens before he got hurt....lost and surprisingly inaccurate.

It's fair to wonder whether Fields needed more time to watch and learn - to correct his throwing motion, to see how experienced QBs read defenses, to work on the basics. I do think he'd be better today had he received 1st team reps in camp, or had been handed the job from day 1 ala Trevor Lawrence or Zach WIlson - but that's not "where we're at."

IMO, Fields is a HUGE question mark. He could be a super star OR a next GM and HC may be looking to move on after 2022.

[dplank]

To be fair...we didn't get to play the "take away x game" game with Mitch, so I'm not inclined to do it with JF either.

I personally believe JF will be a really good player in the NFL for a long time. But this year, based on stats alone, he's been as bad as that article indicates.

To humorously, and also accurately, counter that.

If we subtracted all of Mitch's bad games we'd have the one great Tampa game from like when? 2018?

I actually did take out some of his worst (and best) games when evaluating Mitch. What was strange about his time here was the extreme high's and low's that he'd have. His high's always seemed to come against bad teams, I bet Detroit was really happy to see him leave Chicago because he tore them up.

What's interesting is the volume of extreme lows, which we've also seen from Mitch, Foles and Dalton in limited time, and now Fields. QB isn't the common denominator, Nagy is. The only thing that seems fair IMO with comparisons is that I have changed my tune on Mitch now that I've watched Foles, Dalton, and Fields struggle to show any level of competency at all. I now view Mitch's time here differently and, like many Mitch supporters, wonder what might have been had Nagy never come to Chicago.

With Fields, we simply don't know yet. Same as Lawrence, Lance, and Wilson. Jones we can reasonably project as at least a starting caliber player in the right circumstances, but by no means would I proclaim he's going to be the best of the bunch. That'll take some time to unfold.

[Artbest]

Regarding Mitch, I think the player we saw come back a year ago after his benching is likely his ceiling - can carve up bad defenses, will struggle against good defenses, seemingly fits best in a run heavy attack. I think he can be a decent+ QB for Kyle Shanahan or Stefanski. His downfield (in) accuracy isn't likely to be fixed by coaching...and, after 5 years, I'm not sure his tendency to meltdown under pressure - be it physical or mental - is likely to dissipate. I see him as a more mobile, less accurate, poor man's Jimmy G

[IE]

To humorously, and also accurately, counter that.

If we subtracted all of Mitch's bad games we'd have the one great Tampa game from like when? 2018?

I actually did take out some of his worst (and best) games when evaluating Mitch. What was strange about his time here was the extreme high's and low's that he'd have. His high's always seemed to come against bad teams, I bet Detroit was really happy to see him leave Chicago because he tore them up.

What's interesting is the volume of extreme lows, which we've also seen from Mitch, Foles and Dalton in limited time, and now Fields. QB isn't the common denominator, Nagy is. The only thing that seems fair IMO with comparisons is that I have changed my tune on Mitch now that I've watched Foles, Dalton, and Fields struggle to show any level of competency at all. I now view Mitch's time here differently and, like many Mitch supporters, wonder what might have been had Nagy never come to Chicago.

With Fields, we simply don't know yet. Same as Lawrence, Lance, and Wilson. Jones we can reasonably project as at least a starting caliber player in the right circumstances, but by no means would I proclaim he's going to be the best of the bunch. That'll take some time to unfold.

Yep - this. I actually have always advocated for using median and not average because it tells the better story. Or at least to take off the outliers on either side (the best and worst). This was the foundation of my comparison between Mitch and some other QBs... his outliers were just that, and his median stats betrayed his "averages". The problem with JF1's numbers is there are too few of them to really take off outliers. But that is the reason you can't form a judgement yet. It just isn't a sample. And that doesn't even consider the circumstances.

[Burl]

Agree with Art.

Fields is a huge question mark. I fully concede that Nagy sucks, but if I were a head coach prospect interviewing with the Bears and were inclined to give an honest assessment of the roster, I wouldn't be counting on Fields as any kind of savior or obvious longterm answer. He's due an adequate evaluation period considering the resources spent to obtain him, but I'd draft another QB prospect if a solid one were available in the draft. We've seen an absolute shit-ton of hotshot QBs with all kinds of skills drafted to many teams fail for many reasons. Although there is clearly physical talent to work with, I haven't seen it used to lift teammates or overcome other deficiencies yet. We're a bad offense and the numbers bear it out. We can only hope these next 4 games and the 2022 season prove Fields to be what we all want him to be.

But, these are the Chicago Bears, not the Chicago Fields. We just need to keep amassing good players and good coaches, not hitch our wagon to and hang all our hopes on one player who may or may not be the goods. Been burned too many times.

[dplank]

I actually did take out some of his worst (and best) games when evaluating Mitch. What was strange about his time here was the extreme high's and low's that he'd have. His high's always seemed to come against bad teams, I bet Detroit was really happy to see him leave Chicago because he tore them up.

What's interesting is the volume of extreme lows, which we've also seen from Mitch, Foles and Dalton in limited time, and now Fields. QB isn't the common denominator, Nagy is. The only thing that seems fair IMO with comparisons is that I have changed my tune on Mitch now that I've watched Foles, Dalton, and Fields struggle to show any level of competency at all. I now view Mitch's time here differently and, like many Mitch supporters, wonder what might have been had Nagy never come to Chicago.

With Fields, we simply don't know yet. Same as Lawrence, Lance, and Wilson. Jones we can reasonably project as at least a starting caliber player in the right circumstances, but by no means would I proclaim he's going to be the best of the bunch. That'll take some time to unfold.

Yep - this. I actually have always advocated for using median and not average because it tells the better story. Or at least to take off the outliers on either side (the best and worst). This was the foundation of my comparison between Mitch and some other QBs... his outliers were just that, and his median stats betrayed his "averages". The problem with JF1's numbers is there are too few of them to really take off outliers. But that is the reason you can't form a judgement yet. It just isn't a sample. And that doesn't even consider the circumstances.

If you want to take a purely statistical view and ignore both sample size and circumstances, then Chase Daniel has been the best QB to run Nagy's offense in Chicago. That should, IMO, obliterate these types of flawed evaluations.

Nagy has reached Trestman level of hatred for me personally. I don't want to see his face in Chicago ever again. He blew our window being a stubborn, cocky twat.

[IE]

LOL on WSCR right now they just brought this up, and pointed out that Mitch had the 3rd-highest QBR in 2018. It isn't a good metric, and rewards QBs for being on a team with good defense and short fields.

And then they're talking about trends. It is just such a non-thing and ESPN sucks for dropping that nothingburger today to use in tonight's game.

[Burl]

LOL on WSCR right now they just brought this up, and pointed out that Mitch had the 3rd-highest QBR in 2018. It isn't a good metric, and rewards QBs for being on a team with good defense and short fields.

And then they're talking about trends. It is just such a non-thing and ESPN sucks for dropping that nothingburger today to use in tonight's game.

It's certainly not perfect, but it's not nothing either. Football is just too situational to derive a reliable singular metric by which QBs can be rated.
So the Mitch example proves there are outliers (although that was his best year, and his QBR predictably suffered in years he played worse) but that metric can still be used along with others to paint a picture of a QB's performance.

Has Fields been bad? Yes.
Is his QBR bad? Yes.

Dismissing statistical evidence as worthless or meaningless is the sort of ad-hoc rationalization we continually do to try and convince ourselves that everyone else is wrong, and that our QB is actually really good. If you just throw out this game or that...

[IE]

LOL on WSCR right now they just brought this up, and pointed out that Mitch had the 3rd-highest QBR in 2018. It isn't a good metric, and rewards QBs for being on a team with good defense and short fields.

And then they're talking about trends. It is just such a non-thing and ESPN sucks for dropping that nothingburger today to use in tonight's game.

It's certainly not perfect, but it's not nothing either. Football is just too situational to derive a reliable singular metric by which QBs can be rated.
So the Mitch example proves there are outliers (although that was his best year, and his QBR predictably suffered in years he played worse) but that metric can still be used along with others to paint a picture of a QB's performance.

Has Fields been bad? Yes.
Is his QBR bad? Yes.

Dismissing statistical evidence as worthless or meaningless is the sort of ad-hoc rationalization we continually do to try and convince ourselves that everyone else is wrong, and that our QB is actually really good. If you just throw out this game or that...

I dismiss data presented in a way to paint an inaccurate picture. Like you did here.

Has Fields been bad? Sometimes, clearly. Othertimes hardly. Sometimes he's been the opposite of bad. So what you said there is misleading. It is false.

Is his QBR bad? As an average for the 9 games he started? Sure. In all of his game? Hell no. In most of his games? Not even that. So there is no reason to say what you said unless you're predisposed to want to be able to say something bad about him. Which, IIRC, you are.

So yeah... I absolutely dismiss what you said.

[Burl]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here IE.
Overall, his numbers are pretty poor. So when I say he's been bad, that's what Im referring to. That's not to say he hasn't had his moments of solid/good play, just that overall he's not been great.
I don't expect him to be, what with being a rookie and playing for Nagy. But I dont "want to be able" to say something bad about Fields. I just want to honestly assess our players without bias where possible. Numbers are a way to do that and dismissing them out of hand isn't particularly helpful.
If you're going to get all nasty about my posts by the way, feel free to ignore me or not respond.