Free Agent WRs

For all things Chicago Bears

Moderator: wab

User avatar
Grizzled
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5548
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm
Has thanked: 605 times
Been thanked: 484 times

Decent 2nd and 3rd round guys will be available. The Bears, though, could use more picks in both rounds. I don't know if they would/would be able to trade any of their defensive guys to get more such picks.
Drafts are like snowflakes, no two are alike.
otis
Pro Bowler
Posts: 424
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:22 am
Has thanked: 159 times
Been thanked: 52 times

Grizzled wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:36 am Decent 2nd and 3rd round guys will be available. The Bears, though, could use more picks in both rounds. I don't know if they would/would be able to trade any of their defensive guys to get more such picks.
unfortunately, i don't think pace ever trades down to gain picks. trade our second for two thirds? or something like that. he just always trades up when we think he is dropping, or should. that is what probably pissed me off the most about the trubs pick. it seemed like all sorts of reasons to trade down from 3 and get some help. the shock from trading up killed any chance of me accepting trubisky and ever having faith in pace. especially after the white pick and trade up for scrawny ass floyd. and he hasn't changed his stripes. trading up for fields was fine, seemed like a reasonable draft move. trading up for jenkins seemed excessive considering we didn't have many picks to begin with.
User avatar
The Cooler King
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5004
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm
Has thanked: 1202 times
Been thanked: 346 times

I mean he literally has traded down a lot of times. When he has he has tended to get good value on them too.

I'll try to dig up some analysis I did, but the long and short of it is he had done a decent job of offsetting his trade ups with trade downs. This was pre-Fields trade that I had worked on last offseason.
User avatar
The Cooler King
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5004
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:07 pm
Has thanked: 1202 times
Been thanked: 346 times

The Cooler King wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:14 pm I mean he literally has traded down a lot of times. When he has he has tended to get good value on them too.

I'll try to dig up some analysis I did, but the long and short of it is he had done a decent job of offsetting his trade ups with trade downs. This was pre-Fields trade that I had worked on last offseason.
A little analysis from early last offseason about how Pace had managed trade ups and trade downs in aggregate.

Fields/Jenkins trades would move this analysis significantly I imagine, especially with this year's number 1 being such high value. But through 6 years the story was way more nuanced than many thought IMO. Also most seem to support both the Fields and Jenkins trades.

Also noted below here they were -3 just on pure draft pick numbers, but that included comp picks so ideally you'd actually want them at 8/draft picks and they'd be -9. Though it was kinda hard to hold Pace not netting comp picks against him in early years. So maybe split the diff and say he was losing a pick per draft - not great obviously. But let's take a look at value.
________

Alright, unless I messed something up here;

If the Bears had stood pat, their average draft value via the "traditional" trade value chart should come out to about the 10th pick overall (12,942 points, over 6 drafts or 2,157 points per draft)

Their actual draft position has yielded 11,375 or 1,895 points/draft, or about the value of the 14th point. So in exchange for a value trade off from 10th team to 14th team over 6 years (which is actually quite a bit - in points terms about one 19th overall pick). For all that moving draft position, they also got Khalil Mack, Eddy Piniero, and Nick Foles. They traded away Bennet, Allen, Marshall, and Shaheen and lost in FA Amos who netted a comp pick. Their FA losses of Daniels, Williams, and perhaps Pierre Louis will also net some comp picks this year.
______
Same exercise with a likely more analytically designed value chart
(Blog here https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... aft-picks/)

They still start at a 10th overall average value. Their trades brought them down to the average trade value of a 21st pick this time. Which is a larger drop. Though due to the different curve of this chart's points, that value (676 points "given up") come out to one 26th overall value pick. So an overall similar story. If, when we run through any trade value model and they all come out and say basically that Pace has given up a later first rounder, net, in all his wheeling and dealing, and that includes netting Mack... it doesn't seem to be an area likely to stress over. Though granted, it is a net loss of 3 picks overall verse expected. Although that includes Mack still and doesn't consider whether he's done above or below average in UDFA.
otis
Pro Bowler
Posts: 424
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:22 am
Has thanked: 159 times
Been thanked: 52 times

The Cooler King wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:14 pm I mean he literally has traded down a lot of times. When he has he has tended to get good value on them too.

I'll try to dig up some analysis I did, but the long and short of it is he had done a decent job of offsetting his trade ups with trade downs. This was pre-Fields trade that I had worked on last offseason.
yeah, i guess i mean trade down from 3 or 10 or 20, or maybe the second round. someplace where we can fleece a team instead of being fleeced. late rounds, sure. and he does well. its the first that i would like to see him use to gain some picks instead of burning them on bums like white or trubs or shaheen. or floyd.
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

Brandon Cooks could probably be gotten relatively cheaply via trade - and Doesnt hurt your compensatory pick outlook

DJ Chark would be an intriguing FA to me

Lots of draft options IMHO

I think the Mooney #1 argument essentially misses the point. If you have 3 Mooneys - that's a great WR room even if there isn't "really" a #1.

Its also alot easier to find than your true #1 WR
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5899
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 1711 times

otis wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:08 pm yeah, i guess i mean trade down from 3 or 10 or 20, or maybe the second round. someplace where we can fleece a team instead of being fleeced. late rounds, sure. and he does well. its the first that i would like to see him use to gain some picks instead of burning them on bums like white or trubs or shaheen. or floyd.
Pace has traded down in the 2nd round a few times, once when he did it twice before selecting Cody Whitehair and then when he chose Shaheen. It all gets a bit complicated due to subsequent trades, but essentially those moves enabled him to net Deon Bush, Nick Kwiatkoski, Tarik Cohen, Eddie Jackson and Joel Iyiegbuniwe.

The Floyd trade up and selection gets far more criticism than it deserves. It was a position of need and only 4 players selected after him in the first round have made a Pro Bowl. It's not like there was a ton of elite talent sitting there waiting to be had if only Pace had traded down to later in the round.

As for the receiver situation, I wonder if Cohen will finally return and what the new HC might have in store for him. He flexed out a fair bit as a receiver before his injury and with Montgomery and Herbert there to eat up the running snaps perhaps the best way to get him on the field is to get him reps in the slot.
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:51 pm
otis wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:08 pm yeah, i guess i mean trade down from 3 or 10 or 20, or maybe the second round. someplace where we can fleece a team instead of being fleeced. late rounds, sure. and he does well. its the first that i would like to see him use to gain some picks instead of burning them on bums like white or trubs or shaheen. or floyd.


The Floyd trade up and selection gets far more criticism than it deserves. It was a position of need and only 4 players selected after him in the first round have made a Pro Bowl. It's not like there was a ton of elite talent sitting there waiting to be had if only Pace had traded down to later in the round.

Disagree here. There was a Pro Bowl LT sitting there - and it was a Need - and this was what I thought on Draft Night - so no hindsight bias

Tunsil made the most sense there period and didnt require a trade up
User avatar
spudbear
MVP
Posts: 1224
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:32 pm
Has thanked: 248 times
Been thanked: 139 times

Even though this is a FA WR thread, it seems to be steering towards the draft, which is fine.
I don't have confidence that Pace can somewhat consistently select NFL quality receivers, particularly in the first two rounds of the draft. Beyond the Kevin White draft, which I'll give him a pass since he didn't have time to prepare, the results have not been good:
2016 - Daniel Braverman 7th
2017 - Tarik Cohen(?) 4th
2018 - Anthony Miller 2nd, Javon Wims 7th
2019 - Riley Ridley 4th
2020 - Darnell Mooney 5th
2021 - Dazz Newsome 6th

Ridley and Wims are out of the NFL, Miller and White got a look-see from a few teams but will probably be out next year, Cohen had some bad luck and Newsome got his first catch last Sunday. Out of all of these picks it looks like Mooney will stick and be productive.

It's difficult to say who will be available as a FA WR this spring, but Pace needs to find a mid to upper tier WR at the very least as his drafting for a WR is poor. In this pass-happy league you need playmakers, and the Bears have fallen short in the draft.
San Francisco has always been my favorite booing city. I don't mean the people boo louder or longer, but there is a very special intimacy. Music, that's what it is to me. One time in Kezar Stadium they gave me a standing boo.

George Halas
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5899
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 1711 times

RichH55 wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:56 pm
HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:51 pm
The Floyd trade up and selection gets far more criticism than it deserves. It was a position of need and only 4 players selected after him in the first round have made a Pro Bowl. It's not like there was a ton of elite talent sitting there waiting to be had if only Pace had traded down to later in the round.
Disagree here. There was a Pro Bowl LT sitting there - and it was a Need - and this was what I thought on Draft Night - so no hindsight bias

Tunsil made the most sense there period and didnt require a trade up
Ah yes, Tunsil. The guy caught on camera wearing a gas mask and smoking from a bong just before the draft. Do you think that might have given Pace and other GMs pause for thought maybe?

Also OT wasn't a great need in that draft. Pace had just signed Bobby Massie on a 3-year $18m deal and Leno had been an ever-present at LT and looked to be an ascending player. Pace rewarded him with a 4-year $38m deal the next season and, whilst we were keen to see the back of him last year, he's just signed a 3-year $37.5m deal with the WFT.

Perhaps in hindsight you could say that Tunsil made the most sense but, whatever your personal thoughts on him, there were good reasons to pass.

But we're digressing from this thread's purpose, which is to discuss potential WRs for next season...
otis
Pro Bowler
Posts: 424
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:22 am
Has thanked: 159 times
Been thanked: 52 times

Tunsil was a probable number one pick before the dope pic. To get him at ten would have been a franchise changing event. Maybe trubs survives with tunsil protecting him.
User avatar
mmmc_35
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6113
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 12:25 am
Has thanked: 105 times
Been thanked: 98 times

Literally everyone on the board was pounding the table for Tunsil. It's not hindsight, it was foresight. I have a running spreadsheet of who I think would have been selected and hes on there. Maybe I should do the same for the board.
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3625
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 204 times

wab wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:20 pm I think Mooney is undervalued by fans and is the top WR whether we like it or not. But I'm going to defer to the next coach to evaluate his position on the depth chart.

Mooney
Newsome
Grant
Byrd
2nd or 3rd round Rookie
Moderately priced #2 WR in FA

I think that's how it'll shake out.
I don't want us to splash out in free agency on a receiver this year but looking at that list.

Mooney. 24. 5-11.
Newsome. 22. 5-11.
Grant. 29. 5-7.
Byrd. 28/29. 5-9.

We could do with a bit of size!

I'm fine with Mooney being the number one in 2022. 998 yards in his second year with Nagy and multiple QBs this year is ok for me. I'd like to see us sign the moderate #2 to a long contract with upside but otherwise that is the kind of thing we should be rolling with.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6805
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 384 times
Been thanked: 688 times

malk wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:53 pm
I don't want us to splash out in free agency on a receiver this year but looking at that list.

Mooney. 24. 5-11.
Newsome. 22. 5-11.
Grant. 29. 5-7.
Byrd. 28/29. 5-9.

We could do with a bit of size!
Not only that, but you're being generous.
Actually
5'10
5'10
5'6
5'9
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3625
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 204 times

Moriarty wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:57 pm
malk wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:53 pm
I don't want us to splash out in free agency on a receiver this year but looking at that list.

Mooney. 24. 5-11.
Newsome. 22. 5-11.
Grant. 29. 5-7.
Byrd. 28/29. 5-9.

We could do with a bit of size!
Not only that, but you're being generous.
Actually
5'10
5'10
5'6
5'9
Short King solidarity over here.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
Moriarty
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6805
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm
Has thanked: 384 times
Been thanked: 688 times

malk wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:00 pm
Moriarty wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:57 pm

Not only that, but you're being generous.
Actually
5'10
5'10
5'6
5'9
Short King solidarity over here.
Image
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
Z Bear
MVP
Posts: 1656
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:45 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 141 times

Not to mention the only one truly under contract is Mooney, Newsome will be back since he is a ERFA. Aftert that you have Rodney Adams and Isaih Coulture on the practice squad who ca nbe retained with futures contracts. That is it. Even if they get lucky and someone drops in the draft the Bears absolutely must add a decent WR in free agency if you want to have a decent offense.
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5899
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm
Has thanked: 61 times
Been thanked: 1711 times

malk wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:53 pm I'm fine with Mooney being the number one in 2022. 998 yards in his second year with Nagy and multiple QBs this year is ok for me. I'd like to see us sign the moderate #2 to a long contract with upside but otherwise that is the kind of thing we should be rolling with.
Just to note, Mooney finished the season with a big game today: 12 catches for 126 yards. That's his 4th game with over 120 yards.

Season numbers: 81 catches for 1,055 yards and 4 TDs.

He's had the extra game, but those are pretty decent numbers considering he's played with 3 QBs and the offense has pretty much been a disaster zone. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with new coaches.

With Mooney and Grant, who is worth keeping based on his KO and punt returns, the team has speed. A couple of bigger FA WRs with upside would be where I'd be looking this off-season. There just aren't any obvious top-tier guys out there. The Bears need to find another Allen Robinson type, a guy they got 3 good years from for a relatively modest amount relative to his production. They could go WR in R2 of the draft, but it will depend who's available and the value compared to other positions of need.
User avatar
Otis Day
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8059
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:43 pm
Location: Armpit of IL.
Has thanked: 120 times
Been thanked: 306 times

They had speed this year, it didn't help (Nagy). I would rather have great route runners than just plain speed guys. Great route runners have ways of getting open.
User avatar
Arkansasbear
Head Coach
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
Has thanked: 457 times
Been thanked: 650 times

Z Bear wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:11 pm Not to mention the only one truly under contract is Mooney, Newsome will be back since he is a ERFA. Aftert that you have Rodney Adams and Isaih Coulture on the practice squad who ca nbe retained with futures contracts. That is it. Even if they get lucky and someone drops in the draft the Bears absolutely must add a decent WR in free agency if you want to have a decent offense.
So maybe this is one of those things I’ve never realized. But I thought as a draft pick he got a 4 year contract.
User avatar
Z Bear
MVP
Posts: 1656
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:45 am
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 141 times

They cut him so the contract is voided, that is the way it works for practice squad guys (who make like $15k a week if on the squad). Since he has less than 4 years tenure, he is an exclusive rights free agent and can be retained at a minimum tender. The tender amount is the same as his contract would of been so the only difference is he will have a dead cap hit for his small signing bonus since everything is slotted now.
User avatar
Arkansasbear
Head Coach
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:41 am
Has thanked: 457 times
Been thanked: 650 times

Z Bear wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 6:29 pm They cut him so the contract is voided, that is the way it works for practice squad guys (who make like $15k a week if on the squad). Since he has less than 4 years tenure, he is an exclusive rights free agent and can be retained at a minimum tender. The tender amount is the same as his contract would of been so the only difference is he will have a dead cap hit for his small signing bonus since everything is slotted now.
Forgot he got cut. That’s where I was confused.
User avatar
malk
Head Coach
Posts: 3625
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:10 am
Has thanked: 133 times
Been thanked: 204 times

HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 6:09 pm
malk wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:53 pm I'm fine with Mooney being the number one in 2022. 998 yards in his second year with Nagy and multiple QBs this year is ok for me. I'd like to see us sign the moderate #2 to a long contract with upside but otherwise that is the kind of thing we should be rolling with.
Just to note, Mooney finished the season with a big game today: 12 catches for 126 yards. That's his 4th game with over 120 yards.

Season numbers: 81 catches for 1,055 yards and 4 TDs.

He's had the extra game, but those are pretty decent numbers considering he's played with 3 QBs and the offense has pretty much been a disaster zone. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with new coaches.

With Mooney and Grant, who is worth keeping based on his KO and punt returns, the team has speed. A couple of bigger FA WRs with upside would be where I'd be looking this off-season. There just aren't any obvious top-tier guys out there. The Bears need to find another Allen Robinson type, a guy they got 3 good years from for a relatively modest amount relative to his production. They could go WR in R2 of the draft, but it will depend who's available and the value compared to other positions of need.
Good catch, I'd glanced at the stats and added his numbers from the Giants game again as the ones from today's game weren't up. Glad he managed to crack 1000 yards and if he can get back into a 60%+, preferably 65%+ catch rate then he's looking really nice. 55.6% this year isn't great and the 7 interceptions on passes targeted at him looks high but it has been a weird year so hopefully both are outlier stats for him.

For the free agent, obviously this will come down to who is the new coach, but I'd be looking for someone who projects up to around 1000 yards. Who has looked good in limited duty, or in a bad situation, but has the traits that could work for us with increased volume. Kendrick Bourne has had a great season for the Patriots, only 776 yards plus today's game but coming at a league leading 11.8 yards per target and with a 78.8% completion rate. Three years for $15m, hardly any dead cap risk in future and a good chance he could break out further and exceed the contract. I haven't looked much yet for next year but at a glance maybe someone like Cedrick Wilson Jr. or Byron Pringle?
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

Noted Brain Genius Malk, Summer 2018.

(2020 update, wait, was I right...)
User avatar
Sugashane
Player of the Month
Posts: 258
Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:35 am
Has thanked: 39 times
Been thanked: 21 times

Bears Whiskey Nut wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:13 pm
Z Bear wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:44 am There is literally one elite WR that is a potential free agent, Devante Adams. I really do not see how the Pack can retain them without getting rid of Rodgers, but then Devante probably will not want to go back. Someone like him on the outside draws the entire secondary's eyes at the snap and can open up lanes for everyone else. The Bears do have the money to go after him and it is the team's biggest need. On top of that it would be a kick in the nuts to the Pack, so I am all in on him if he makes it to market.
I think Ju-Ju Smith Schuster could be a #1. He will be a FA and was an outstanding WR when the Steelers had a good QB.
I'll always be a fan of him for his hit on that shitbag Burfict.
Image

I think we go into 2022 without a true #1. But I would be fine with 3 #2's (who all potentially can become 1 level players) like Juju, Mooney, and Chark and just take who is open. Would also give some size/speed to compliment each other and let Fields throw deep. Also Chark and Juju are good blockers for WRs from what I have seen, so that opens up more for Monty, Fields, and Herbert.
Image
User avatar
mmmc_35
Hall of Famer
Posts: 6113
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 12:25 am
Has thanked: 105 times
Been thanked: 98 times

I really like JJSS but he is not a #1, in the standard definition. In the right scheme though he could be super productive. He runs great routes, has good hands, blocks but doesnt have top end speed. Kind of like the Marty Booker type.
User avatar
Atkins&Rebel
Head Coach
Posts: 2177
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:56 pm
Has thanked: 32 times
Been thanked: 123 times

I see a ton of FA talent that I'd be interested to pursue:
DJ Chark, Cedric Wilson, Antoine Wesley, Rashard Higgins, Gallup, Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers.

There's more names, but the list above is a pretty good pool to pick from. Add in re-signing a couple of guys we're set to lose like Grant and Byrd, and we'd have a decent range of size and speed to utilize.
I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
RichH55
Hall of Famer
Posts: 7942
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:23 pm
Has thanked: 511 times
Been thanked: 598 times

HisRoyalSweetness wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:17 pm
RichH55 wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:56 pm

Disagree here. There was a Pro Bowl LT sitting there - and it was a Need - and this was what I thought on Draft Night - so no hindsight bias

Tunsil made the most sense there period and didnt require a trade up
Ah yes, Tunsil. The guy caught on camera wearing a gas mask and smoking from a bong just before the draft. Do you think that might have given Pace and other GMs pause for thought maybe?

Also OT wasn't a great need in that draft. Pace had just signed Bobby Massie on a 3-year $18m deal and Leno had been an ever-present at LT and looked to be an ascending player. Pace rewarded him with a 4-year $38m deal the next season and, whilst we were keen to see the back of him last year, he's just signed a 3-year $37.5m deal with the WFT.

Perhaps in hindsight you could say that Tunsil made the most sense but, whatever your personal thoughts on him, there were good reasons to pass.

But we're digressing from this thread's purpose, which is to discuss potential WRs for next season...
I absolutely remember the gas mask - this wasn't L Collins though

I actually was oddly supportive of Bobby Massie (on the other site) - Him and Leno aren't reasons to pass on Tunsil IMHO
Post Reply