Compensation pick outlook

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The Cooler King
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So while there's a long way to go, thought it might be good to project if or what the Bears might be able to accomplish in the comp pick game for 2022 (to be awarded in 2023). They won't have any comp picks in 2022.

The following are the CFA qualifiers who might net a comp pick value and my estimate of where that value might lie.

ARob (3-4)
Daniels (4)
Nichols (4-5)
Hicks (5)
Dalton (6)
Graham (6-7)
Ifedi (6-7)
Grant (7)
Gipson (7)

So I'd say up to 9, but perhaps as little as 6 or 7 guys who could net a comp pick. They'd of course be offset by any CFAs the Bears sign. The Bears could focus on non-CFAs which typically is an older guy who has been cut. Or they could focus on deals below the 7th round threshold, probably around 1.8M.

How important would a comp pick strategy be for you for the Bears? If the Bears got credits for all 9 of those guys, they could still sign 5 CFAs and cancel at the same level and max out 2023 comp picks for some much needed talent infusion.

I've kind of been of the mind that they probably won't be in a position to get comp picks because they have so many roster spots open, but with a disciplined approach they might be able to net a couple picks. Of course a few of these guys might be resigned as well.

What would be really big is ARob signing something north of like 16m/year+ that's gonna likely be the 3rd round comp range and if they can focus spending on the sub 16m and bring in less total CFAs then they lose, he could still net them a 3rd rounder.
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The Cooler King
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More specifically and hypothetically:

Let's say I'll resign Daniels, leaving my 8 possible CFAs lost, but hopefully at least 5

If I could limit my CFA spending to
1 WR(9M) 1 OL (8M), 1 CB (9M) , 1 other position (6M)
Any other FA signings for non CFA guys or less than 1.8M

I could potentially get:
ARob (3) - - - - - > 3rd round comp awarded
Nichols (4) - - - - - - - >canceled 5M other CFA (Rd 6)
Hicks (5)- - - - - - - - >canceled 9M WR (rd5)
Dalton (6) - - - - - - - - >canceled 9M CB (rd5)
Ifedi (6-7) - - - - - - - - - > canceled 8M OL (Rd 5)

And then possible other 7th round comp picks for any other guys I lose who sign in that 2-3.5m range (Graham, Gipson, Grant as mentioned, maybe a surprise candidate) up to 3 more.

How worthwhile would such a strategy be worth? It of course could be that I overestimate the ability for a guy like Hicks to sign a qualifying deal, but it would give the Bears a chance at some extra 2023 draft capital.
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Draft capital is gold right now. Unless they think they can really compete next year, I like the idea.

You'd still have 2 yrs left on Fields rookie deal and have a better outlook on his projection after next year. If he is the goods, the championship window opens up for 23 -24. If not, extra picks to get a QB may be beneficial.
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Moriarty
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It all depends what you do with your roster spots.

I, for one, am a HUGE proponent of free draft picks (maximizing your comps).
However, there is a limit of 4/yr, and they tend not to be as high as you always think/hope they will be.

I would be furious if a new GM comes into a situation like this one and manages 0 comp picks. This is a clear season to be shedding and reloading for the future.

-----------------------------

Amounts are somewhat confusing, because they aren't purely based on the new FA contract size, but these are some ROUGH ranges for what qualified where in 2021 comps (you will find exceptions)


R3
14.8M and up
R4
10-14M
5
7-10M
6
3.5-7M
7
2.3-3.5M

--------------------------------

Using that and assuming a slight uplift, I think you're a little high, but pretty close to the mark. I'd guess:

ARob (3-4)
Daniels (4-5)
Nichols (4-5)
Hicks (5)
Dalton (6)
Graham (7)
Burns (no)*
James (no)*
Ifedi (no)
Grant (no)
Gipson (no)

* I'd like to have them back, if bids don't get too high
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Moriarty
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The Cooler King wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:38 pm They'd of course be offset by any CFAs the Bears sign. The Bears could focus on non-CFAs which typically is an older guy who has been cut. Or they could focus on deals below the 7th round threshold, probably around 1.8M.
The non-CFA route is a really interesting loophole I didn't realize existed until fairly recently. Exploit whenever possible.
Old guys aren't very desirable right now (aside from cheap stopgaps who may not qualify anyway), but they're not always old. Sometimes a player gets a big 2nd contract, doesn't live up to it/new coach doesn't want them/whatever, gets cut, and is only 27-28ish with reclamation/upside potential.
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The Cooler King
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Moriarty wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:42 pm
The Cooler King wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:38 pm They'd of course be offset by any CFAs the Bears sign. The Bears could focus on non-CFAs which typically is an older guy who has been cut. Or they could focus on deals below the 7th round threshold, probably around 1.8M.
The non-CFA route is a really interesting loophole I didn't realize existed until fairly recently. Exploit whenever possible.
Old guys aren't very desirable right now (aside from cheap stopgaps who may not qualify anyway), but they're not always old. Sometimes a player gets a big 2nd contract, doesn't live up to it/new coach doesn't want them/whatever, gets cut, and is only 27-28ish with reclamation/upside potential.
Hm i think 27/28 year old non-CFAs are pretty uncommon. Most will be 30+.
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Moriarty
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The Cooler King wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:43 pm
Moriarty wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:42 pm

The non-CFA route is a really interesting loophole I didn't realize existed until fairly recently. Exploit whenever possible.
Old guys aren't very desirable right now (aside from cheap stopgaps who may not qualify anyway), but they're not always old. Sometimes a player gets a big 2nd contract, doesn't live up to it/new coach doesn't want them/whatever, gets cut, and is only 27-28ish with reclamation/upside potential.
Hm i think 27/28 year old non-CFAs are pretty uncommon. Most will be 30+.
Oh, I'm sure they're uncommon, but I feel like there's got to be a few, here and there.
Maybe less than I think, because I'm not finding much, but I also don't have an easy resource/methodology to look it up, either.


Desmond Trufant was cut at 29 and signed for an average of 10M (thus not counting to comps)
Devonta Freeman was cut at 28, but his new deal wasn't quite enough that it would have counted anyway
Richard Sherman was cut at 29 and signed for an average of 9M (thus not counting to comps)
cut at 28 and signed for an average of 4M (thus not counting to comps)...Mike Glennon :-P
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Moriarty
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Got another:

cut at 28, signed for avg of 7.5 (thus not couting), Tashaun Gipson
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The Cooler King
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Update. I just remembered Grant won't be CFA elligible. His prior contract was shortened by Miami so cross him off the list of possible CFA credits. The more I look, the more I think possibly just 1 comp pick is a realistic expectation, but if you can keep your spending out of the tip tier, hopefully it's a third rounder for ARob.
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