RB Matt Forte's rebound is no fantasy for the Bears
After subpar soph season, RB is healthy, eyeing big year -- and adding Taylor can only help
August 9, 2010
BY MIKE MULLIGAN mmulligan@suntimes.com
BOURBONNAIS, Ill. -- There aren't many national experts picking the Bears for a Super Bowl trip, so it's no surprise the fantasy football folks also don't seem enamored with the team. Running back Matt Forte, once touted as a top-five pick, fell to No. 55 in Pro Football Weekly's recent fantasy football rankings -- 24th at his position.
''I don't play fantasy football,'' said Forte, who nonetheless is aware he disappointed a lot of people who do by following his 2008 rookie season with a sophomore slump. ''I just worry about playing regular football, just going out there and trying to win games.''
One thing Forte isn't worried about these days is his starting job, despite the fact the team paid $7 million in guaranteed money on Chester Taylor's four-year, $12.5 million deal. Forte remains entrenched as the starter, with Taylor expected to get plenty of chances. Coach Lovie Smith knows how well a two-back system can work. Pushed by Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones helped key a trip to the Super Bowl in Smith's contract year of 2006.
''You have to have team players at the running back position who know you need two to make it through a season and the guy who is not starting will get his reps,'' Smith said. ''Matt Forte and Chester Taylor ... are guys who know. It's not like they are wondering what will happen. Both guys will get enough plays.''
There won't be the tension between Forte and Taylor that simmered between Jones and Benson. After all, it was Jones who slugged Benson during a drill in practice that season to encourage the younger player to start paying attention. Benson was furious that the coaching staff let the incident go, to the point he complained bitterly to a friend in the locker room after the comeback victory over the Arizona Cardinals.
The running back position has been one of the more frustrating ones for the Bears during Smith's regime. Jones once was described as ''the heart and soul of the offense'' by former quarterback Rex Grossman, but that didn't stop the team from pushing Benson after he was selected with the No. 4 overall pick in 2005. The Bears shopped Jones before the 2006 season and finally traded him after the Super Bowl. Garrett Wolfe was selected in the third round of the 2007 draft, and Forte was taken in the second round in 2008 after it became obvious that Benson didn't care enough about being a Bear.
Throw in Taylor's big-money deal, and you see the Bears have invested a ton of draft picks and money into a position where they effectively created a problem that didn't exist. Regardless, it was obvious that Forte was a breath of fresh air when he arrived.
He set rookie franchise records for rushing yards (1,238) and yards from scrimmage (1,715), but he might have been overused, finishing with 316 carries and 63 receptions for 379 touches. Twelve of those plays ended in touchdowns, but the majority of the rest ended in violent collisions.
Was Forte's sophomore slump the result of a workhorse rookie season? According to research by Football Outsiders in 2008, running backs who get 370 carries in a season invariably suffer a major injury or a profound loss of effectiveness the next season. The study found that players with 300 to 389 carries in a season will see their yardage decline by 15 percent the next year, and those in the 370 or higher range suffer a 35 percent decline.
Forte battled injuries after his rookie season, first suffering what he described as ''a torn hamstring'' last offseason, then spraining a medial collateral ligament in Week 3. His numbers fell off considerably to 929 rushing yards and 1,400 yards from scrimmage, and he ended up with 315 touches. In fairness to the Bears, they lost backup Kevin Jones for the year.
''You do what you have to do at the time to win games,'' said Smith, who doesn't believe Forte was overused as a rookie. ''We have him now and we have a backup we feel comfortable playing, so we don't think that will be an issue.''
Forte said he's in the best shape of his career and feels great. His explosion is back; he's able to hit top speed and make his patented one-cut moves on a dime.
''I don't make excuses, but if you go through an offseason healthy, if you are able to train, then you are going to come to camp in a lot better shape,'' Forte said. ''Now I am able to do the things I am supposed to do.''
Fantasy owners take note.
