Top Fantasy Backs for 2012
I know it’s still early…..real early…..but it’s never ‘too’ early. With hold outs, possible injuries, getting a grasp on new coaching staffs, this list is sure to remain fluid. But for now, here’s a look at how I’d rank the top ten running backs if I had to draft tonight.
#1 – Arian Foster, HOU Texans – Foster has been nothing but an absolute machine. That much may no be news to you, but the stats are probably even gaudier then you expect. Over the last two seasons Foster has participated in 29 regular season games. In those games he’s averaged a very respectable 4.7 yards per carry….nice….but what puts him heads and shoulders above anyone else on this list is the staggering 140 combined (rushing and receiving ) yards per game and the fact that he’s hitting pay dirt at a clip of just better then a touchdown per game as well. With Andre Johnson’s inability to stay healthy and quarterback Matt Shaub coming back from a serious injury himself there Is no reason to expect his workload to decrease what so ever.
#2 – Ray Rice, BAL Ravens – No one has been a more consistent fantasy back over the last three years then Ray Rice and many may even rank him #1 on a similar list. His 4.6 yards per carry over the last three seasons and his average of 123 combined yards and just slightly behind Foster’s. Factor in the fact that he’s managed to suit up for a full 16 game schedule in each of those three seasons (48 games) while Foster has only appeared 35, and I can see the argument. However his current hold out and the fact that he’s only averaged a mere .6 TDs per game over the last three season (that number is actually lower over only the last two) and I think he’s clearly the #2 back here.
#3 – LeSean McCoy, PHI Eagles – McCoy singlehandedly won many an owner their fantasy league title last year. With 320 touches and 20 total touchdowns (he only had 13 total in his career) he certainly exceeded even his own expectations. Just as important was his consistency. He reached the endzone at least one in every game through week 15 save one and in that contest he at least delivered 115 rushing yards for his owners. The only think knocking him this far down the list is in fact that gaudy TD total. It’s hard to imagine he could duplicate such a total it will be hard to come close to last year’s fantasy points. His significantly lower average of 108 combined yards per game put’s even greater importance on his TD total.
#4 – Chris Johnson, TEN Titans – Chris Johnson was a serious disappointment to fantasy owners and his story serves as explanation as to why you haven’t seen MJD or Forte’s names yet. His contract dispute and hold out left him completely unprepared for the season. You can work out and train on your own to stay in ‘shape’ but that is far different then being in football shape. Look to the stats for proof. Johnson only averaged greater than 3.6 yards per carry once in his first 7 contests last year , as he slowly got into football shape he topped that make 7 times over the final 9 games. Unfortunately he never really got his endurance back and that kept his yardage totals and TDs down. I think a full offseason with the team and a healthy Kenny Brit along with the addition of rookie wide out Kendall Wright we should see Johnson return to the type of production that had his name mentioned among the top 5 overall fantasy picks previously.
#5 – Ryan Mathews, SD Chargers – There is certainly no denying Mathews’ ability (he average 4.9 yards per carry last year and 9.1 yards per reception) and the departure of Mike Tolbert insures he’ll have the opportunity. The question comes down to dependability. Mathews missed two games last year and four the year before. Even when he did see the field he was very unpredictable running for less than 50 yards in 4 contests while going for over 100 combined yards in ten of those 14 contests. His touchdown totals were also a little concerning. I think the loss of Mike Tolbert will go a long way to correcting both of those problems and if …..this is a big IF……if he can play 16 games I could easily see him as battling the top two or three names on this list for the top producer at his position in 2012.
#6 – Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC Jaguars – MJD lead the league in rushing last year. He nearly topped the 2,000 combined yards make (coming up a mere 20 yards short) He scored double digit touchdowns for the 4th time in the last 6 seasons. He’s averaging more than 1,700 combined yards per year over his last three seasons. He’s never been held below 1,000 combined yard in a single campaign. He’s durable and has missed only 3 games over his 6 year career. So what’s the problem? He’s 27 years old and holding our while an entire new staff is taking over and trying to install a new defense. No one’s ranking is more volatile as MJD could easily see himself shoot to #4 or even #3 on this list with a quick resolution to his contract dispute, but after the lesson learned by Chris Johnson owners last year….he could also slid down this list if he’s still holding out the last week of July (when camp opens).
#7 – Trent Richardson, CLE Browns – Many lauded Richardson as the most complete back to come out in the draft in many years. Despite the clear drop in value at the running back position in recent drafts, Cleveland actually traded up from the 4th spot to select what they expect to be for focal point of their offense for years to come. Richardson has the physical tools to produce and he has a coaching staff that knows how to utilize such a skill-set. Head coach Pat Schumer was offensive coordinator in St. Louis prior to his hire in Philly and under his play calling running back Steven Jackson averaged more than 370 touches a season. So we know this, Schumer likes to run the ball and he has no passing game to lean on. At the very least, Richardson figures to produce as your typical ‘volume back’.
#8 – Marshawn Lynch, SEA Seahawks – Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch power his way onto this least with a bag of Skittles. Lynch has long been a tease of a running back. He’s a bruising running with a second gear and good vision. However, he just never seems to be able to consistently put it together. After back to back 1,000 yard seasons in Buffalo (07-09) he’s been adrift in mediocrity. Last year however, with to help of his colorful candies, he finally seemed to get back on track. Once coach Pet Carroll realized Lynch was bringing it, they fed him a steady diet of pigskin and he answered with 6 100 yard rushing performances over his final 9 games and was held under 80 yards only once in that span. He also had a streak of reaching then endzone in 11 straight games that wasn’t snapped until the season finally. With no other clear threat to contest carries in the running game and a ton of questions at QB and WR, I think we can expect to see a full plate of Lynch this year and that could project to more the 1,600 yards and 16 scores…..scary numbers.
#9 – Matt Forte, CHI Bears – Clearly, Forte has been one of the biggest focal points in the game (both NFL and Fantasy) over the last couple of years. He’s accounted for as much of his teams offenses as anyone in the league over the last three years. However, he’s in the midst of what may very well be an ugly contract dispute, the last time we saw him, he was being helped off the field with a knee injury, Kahlil Bell preformed admirable in his absence, the club signed a more then competent #2 in Michael Bush, oh….and the passing game got plenty more firepower with a trade for wide receiver Brandon Marshall and the drafting of another wide out Alshon Jeffery in the second round. While thing are really looking up for the Bears and their offense this year, the same may not necessarily hold true for Matt’s fantasy value in 2012. Matt has struggled to find pay-dirt, topping 4 touchdowns only once in the last three season and averaging a mere 5.7 TDs per year over that span. It’s hard to think of anyone with more working against them right now.
#10 - Darren McFadden, OAK Raiders – Darren McFadden, or RunDMC as he’s commonly called will be a top three pick next year if he can just stay on the field. In each of the last two seasons he’s averaged over 5 yards per carry and over 100 combined yards per game. The problem is that he’s only played in 20 games out of the last 32. The team says he’ll be 100% to start the season and that’s bad news for opposing defenses. Making RunDMC even more intriguing this year was the defection of fellow running back Michael Bush to the Chicago Bears. Bush was the Raiders goal line back even when McFadden was healthy and someone has to pick-up his 16 TDs over the last two seasons. I can actually conceive him making a jump to #6 or even into the top 5 if everything looks great this preseason. He may miss some games, but he will easily be one of the top point producers at his position when he is on the field, a clear ‘Upside’ pick.
