good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Non-Bears NFL news

Moderators: wab, RING4CHI, Pagan

User avatar
RustyTrubisky
Head Coach
Location: Maine!
Posts: 4538
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:19 am

good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:08 pm

He's the new 49ers GM. 6 year contract! 6 years for a guy with zero front office experience!

oh to be dumb and rich and living a life with zero consequences.
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 21344
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:41 pm

Jed York won't stop until every fan has abandoned the organization.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20958
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:32 pm

Is this real life?
User avatar
CRM 114
Journeyman
Posts: 110
Joined: Sat Aug 10, 2013 11:04 am

good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:00 pm

John Lynch wasn't that bad in the booth.

Interesting choice by the 9ers though.
User avatar
Otis Day
Hall of Famer
Location: Armpit of IL.
Posts: 5667
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:43 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:11 pm

So when does Joe Buck start his GM job with the Jets? Aikman?

WTF is going on? People are just getting stupider (yes it is a word) by the minute.
User avatar
RustyTrubisky
Head Coach
Location: Maine!
Posts: 4538
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:19 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:39 pm

yeah, i think the 49ers could have gotten pam oliver or tony siragusa for only four years. i dont own an nfl team though.
User avatar
bearsfaninaz
Head Coach
Posts: 2275
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:33 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:49 pm

I've been trying to figure this out. Outside of going to Stanford which means he's pretty smart, and playing the game, does he have any scouting personnel experience at all? I don't think he does unless I've missed something.
User avatar
Boris13c
Hall of Famer
Contact:
Location: The Bear Nebula
Posts: 14940
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:30 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:44 am

Matt Millen Part Deux

though instead of WR's in the first round of the draft every year, Lynch may go Safety
"Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things."
George Carlin

Image
BLOG : Emissions from the Bears Nebula
User avatar
crueltyabc
Head Coach
Location: Dallas TX
Posts: 3489
Joined: Mon May 04, 2009 7:36 pm

good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:27 am

Its also a job where you manage a large organization with people traveling arround and budgets and legal considerations to manage... has he ever worked in any kind of office? Ever lead a meeting? Done a performance review? I'm starting to think the plan is to limit his role and have the existing idiot leadership to control the rest


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
User avatar
Boris13c
Hall of Famer
Contact:
Location: The Bear Nebula
Posts: 14940
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:30 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:19 am

that's the thing cruelty ... the GM position is a people position, not a hands on the football team position ... same as corporate CEO in many ways where the person in the position isn't involved in the nuts and bolts of the operation but needs to ensure he has the proper people in place to do that part

not sure how Lynch's playing experience or time as a tv booth idiot has prepared him for this but I guess we'll see
"Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things."
George Carlin

Image
BLOG : Emissions from the Bears Nebula
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20958
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:35 am

I like Lynch. I think he really knows the game of football, probably better than any other commentator since Madden. That being said...that doesn't qualify him to be a GM. Hopefully it works out...but sometimes when you think outside the box you get a glorified offensive coordinator from the CFL.
User avatar
Boris13c
Hall of Famer
Contact:
Location: The Bear Nebula
Posts: 14940
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:30 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday

Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:40 am

John Lynch's daughter: The 49ers are 'horrible'
Most general managers and coaches sit squarely in a vortex of meaningless words, spewing non-answers and droning on about nothingness. Their children, however, can speak the truth.

Speaking with NFL Network's Michael Silver on Thursday after his introductory news conference, 49ers GM John Lynch told the story of his 9-year-old daughter getting upset after his hiring by the team.

"I think the toughest one -- I haven't told this yet to the media -- all my kids took it really well," Lynch said. "They were shocked but they took it really well. My 9-year-old started bawling, and she's not that girl. She's the one that was always happy. And she was crying, and I said, 'What's wrong Leah? Are you afraid? Is there some nervous anxiety about moving?' And she said, 'No daddy,' and she was sobbing. And I said, 'What's wrong?' And she said, 'The 49ers are horrible.' So, I said, 'Well, I think that's why they hired your daddy."

Leah is not wrong. (Maybe she can get an assistant GM title?)

The 49ers own one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Their 2-14 season came a year after a 5-11 season. They are on their third coach in three years. They don't have a reliable quarterback. They have a bunch of No. 3 and No. 4 receivers. Their defense finished dead last in the NFL in stopping the run in 2016 (by more than 20 yards per game).

Lynch's job will be to quickly infuse talent into a roster worn thin by poor drafts, early retirements and injuries.
"Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things."
George Carlin

Image
BLOG : Emissions from the Bears Nebula
User avatar
Boris13c
Hall of Famer
Contact:
Location: The Bear Nebula
Posts: 14940
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:30 am

Re: John Lynch

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:42 am

bumped for discussion

none of us seemed to think the 49ers hiring John Lynch as GM was an especially good idea for several reasons

fast forward 2 years later and it seems we were wrong and the 49ers knew what they were doing

he took over a crappy 49er team and set about rebuilding ... got the coach he wanted ... got the QB he wanted ... raped the Bears on a first round trade ... and now the 49ers are headed to the Super Bowl

if you watched the NFC Championship game, you saw where the rebuild was most effective - on the offensive and defensive lines ... Lynch was smart enough to make them a priority ... the 49ers offensive line is good enough to lead a practice squad castoff running back to 200+ yards on the ground ... their defensive line is good enough to stop the run and pressure opposing QB's without the need for excessive blitzes

so it appears Lynch was / is qualified for his role, and he has done a very nice job of putting that team together
"Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things."
George Carlin

Image
BLOG : Emissions from the Bears Nebula
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 21344
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am

See my signature quote.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
MVP
Posts: 1949
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm

UOK wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
See my signature quote.
Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
Image
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 21344
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:24 pm

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm
UOK wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
See my signature quote.
Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
PFR a few years ago, 2017 methinks, put together some numbers that indicate most people don't know shit because most players end up as nothing.

Here's a copypasta from a Vikings perspective summarizing that particular research:

------

Pro Football Reference put together a metric called “draft value” which attempts to rate the draft value of players at different positions to arrive at a measure of how well teams have drafted. It ranges from 0-160, with only 1% scoring 80 or higher. It weighs factors such as number of games started, individual stats, team performance and all-pro honors. It also does not include a player’s career after he was traded from the team that drafted him. So, for example, Jared Allen’s value to the Chiefs was much lower because it did not consider his career after he was traded to the Vikings.

BREAKING DOWN NFL DRAFT SUCCESS

Based on this metric, here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall:

16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them.

Most of these are draft picks that didn’t make the team, however, there were a few draft picks that were immediately traded that were of great value- Eli Manning and Philip Rivers for example. But generally these were few and far between so it is safe to say that most in this category (let’s say 16% of the 16.7%) were busts.

37% Were Considered “Useless”

Also known as busts. These are players that had a draft metric of between 0-4, and rarely or never saw the field. Guys like Ryan Leaf, Ryan Mallet and the Vikings’ 1999 1st round pick Dimitrius Underwood, to name a few. These are players that basically did nothing to help the team at all - and represent over a third of all draft picks over the past 20 years.

15.3% Were Considered “Poor”

Still pretty clearly in bust territory. These are players that had underwhelming careers with a draft metric between 5-10, and include some pretty well known busts such as Jamarcus Russell (who scored a 6).

So, if you add up these first three categories of bust (excluding a few draft pick trades that worked out), you come up with just over 68% of all draft picks over the past 20 years have been busts- over two-thirds of all draft picks.

10.5% Were Considered “Average”

This is also not a category that most would consider a successful draft pick, except perhaps a late round pick. Guys like Matt Leinart are in this category, as are Vikings picks such as Nate Burleson, Jasper Brinkley, and Jim Kleinsasser. These are guys that scored between 11-17 on the draft metric scale. These are journeymen that filled a role, but were otherwise undistinguished.

The one thing that comes to mind here is that the draft metric doesn’t consider the round the player was drafted in. A guy like Kleinsasser, for example, who was a good pick, becomes a little less so as a 2nd round pick that was average. As a 4th or 5th round pick, he would have been a much better value- and perhaps where you would pick a fullback these days.

12.3% - Were Considered “Good”

These are solid bread-and-butter players generally, who started many games, did reasonably well but not many accolades. These players scored between 18-35 on the draft metric scale. Guys like Michael Clayton, Carlos Rogers are considered here, as are Vikings picks Christian Ponder (!), Chris Hovan, Dwayne Rudd, Brandon Fusco, Ray Edwards, Moe Williams, and Sidney Rice.

Um, obviously there is a fairly wide definition of “good” used here, but strictly speaking I suspect the number of starts, rather than individual performance stats, had the greatest impact on most of these players being considered in this category. Again, if let’s say Ponder had been a 3rd or 4th round pick, the fact that he started as many games as he did might be more impressive than being picked 12th overall. But having been picked 12th overall, it’s hard not to see Ponder as anything more than a bust- despite being labelled “good” according to this metric.

Ponder is an example of where position makes a big difference- it’s a lot easier to call a mediocre interior lineman “good” as a draft pick that started for 4-5 years, but with a QB it’s a little different...

6.9% Were Considered “Great”

These were picks that started for many years and were also at least above average, but not necessarily elite, at their position. These players scored between 36-80 on the draft metric scale and included players such as Vikings draft picks Chad Greenway, Bryant McKinnie, Matt Birk, EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, and Phil Loadholt.

Again there is something of a range here, as the metric number range suggests, but these are all guys that a team got a lot of mileage out of, and had some pretty good years mixed in. The fact that guys like Birk and Sullivan were taken in the 6th round adds to their draft value in my view.

For many people, this is the expectation for any 1st round pick, and probably most other rounds too. But the fact remains that staggeringly few draft picks ever reach this level.

1% Were Considered “Legendary”

Tom Brady and Ray Lewis are at the top of the heap here, with a draft metric of 160. Both have had long, highly decorated careers with the same team that drafted them, which is why they are ranked so high in this draft metric. These are generally Hall of Famers, with long, distinguished careers that included all-pro accolades- and mostly with the same team that drafted them. Guys like Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Brian Urlacher, Orlando Pace, JJ Watt, and Vikings picks Adrian Peterson, Daunte Culpepper, Kevin Williams, and Randy Moss.

Interestingly, both Moss and Culpepper just barely made this category (scoring 80 and 81 respectively) as the scoring doesn’t include their post-Vikings careers, which were very different. Had Moss had his same career entirely with the Vikings, I’m sure he would be much higher in this category. Culpepper may not have made it so high.

Overall This Shows How Difficult It Is To Draft Well

When guys like Christian Ponder, John Sullivan and Daunte Culpepper are considered good, great and legendary picks respectively, it shows, at least on a relative scale, how difficult it is to draft a quality starter.

Add to that the fact that a little over 2 out of every 3 players drafted are a bust - with over half (53%) of all draft picks adding no value to the team that drafted them- and 9 out of 10 have basically undistinguished careers in the NFL, and you get a better idea of what expectations should be for this year’s draft class adding a quality starter for the Vikings over many years.

Part II of this draft analysis will focus on how well the Vikings have drafted, and how well Rick Spielman has done since having the final say (rather than by committee) on draft picks beginning in 2012.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
User avatar
UOK
Site Admin
Location: Champaign, IL
Posts: 21344
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:07 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:26 pm

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm


Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
PFR a few years ago, 2017 methinks, put together some numbers that indicate most people don't know shit because most players end up as nothing.

Here's a copypasta from a Vikings perspective summarizing that particular research:



------
Pro Football Reference put together a metric called “draft value” which attempts to rate the draft value of players at different positions to arrive at a measure of how well teams have drafted. It ranges from 0-160, with only 1% scoring 80 or higher. It weighs factors such as number of games started, individual stats, team performance and all-pro honors. It also does not include a player’s career after he was traded from the team that drafted him. So, for example, Jared Allen’s value to the Chiefs was much lower because it did not consider his career after he was traded to the Vikings.

BREAKING DOWN NFL DRAFT SUCCESS

Based on this metric, here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall:

16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them.

Most of these are draft picks that didn’t make the team, however, there were a few draft picks that were immediately traded that were of great value- Eli Manning and Philip Rivers for example. But generally these were few and far between so it is safe to say that most in this category (let’s say 16% of the 16.7%) were busts.

37% Were Considered “Useless”

Also known as busts. These are players that had a draft metric of between 0-4, and rarely or never saw the field. Guys like Ryan Leaf, Ryan Mallet and the Vikings’ 1999 1st round pick Dimitrius Underwood, to name a few. These are players that basically did nothing to help the team at all - and represent over a third of all draft picks over the past 20 years.

15.3% Were Considered “Poor”

Still pretty clearly in bust territory. These are players that had underwhelming careers with a draft metric between 5-10, and include some pretty well known busts such as Jamarcus Russell (who scored a 6).

So, if you add up these first three categories of bust (excluding a few draft pick trades that worked out), you come up with just over 68% of all draft picks over the past 20 years have been busts- over two-thirds of all draft picks.

10.5% Were Considered “Average”

This is also not a category that most would consider a successful draft pick, except perhaps a late round pick. Guys like Matt Leinart are in this category, as are Vikings picks such as Nate Burleson, Jasper Brinkley, and Jim Kleinsasser. These are guys that scored between 11-17 on the draft metric scale. These are journeymen that filled a role, but were otherwise undistinguished.

The one thing that comes to mind here is that the draft metric doesn’t consider the round the player was drafted in. A guy like Kleinsasser, for example, who was a good pick, becomes a little less so as a 2nd round pick that was average. As a 4th or 5th round pick, he would have been a much better value- and perhaps where you would pick a fullback these days.

12.3% - Were Considered “Good”

These are solid bread-and-butter players generally, who started many games, did reasonably well but not many accolades. These players scored between 18-35 on the draft metric scale. Guys like Michael Clayton, Carlos Rogers are considered here, as are Vikings picks Christian Ponder (!), Chris Hovan, Dwayne Rudd, Brandon Fusco, Ray Edwards, Moe Williams, and Sidney Rice.

Um, obviously there is a fairly wide definition of “good” used here, but strictly speaking I suspect the number of starts, rather than individual performance stats, had the greatest impact on most of these players being considered in this category. Again, if let’s say Ponder had been a 3rd or 4th round pick, the fact that he started as many games as he did might be more impressive than being picked 12th overall. But having been picked 12th overall, it’s hard not to see Ponder as anything more than a bust- despite being labelled “good” according to this metric.

Ponder is an example of where position makes a big difference- it’s a lot easier to call a mediocre interior lineman “good” as a draft pick that started for 4-5 years, but with a QB it’s a little different...

6.9% Were Considered “Great”

These were picks that started for many years and were also at least above average, but not necessarily elite, at their position. These players scored between 36-80 on the draft metric scale and included players such as Vikings draft picks Chad Greenway, Bryant McKinnie, Matt Birk, EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, and Phil Loadholt.

Again there is something of a range here, as the metric number range suggests, but these are all guys that a team got a lot of mileage out of, and had some pretty good years mixed in. The fact that guys like Birk and Sullivan were taken in the 6th round adds to their draft value in my view.

For many people, this is the expectation for any 1st round pick, and probably most other rounds too. But the fact remains that staggeringly few draft picks ever reach this level.

1% Were Considered “Legendary”

Tom Brady and Ray Lewis are at the top of the heap here, with a draft metric of 160. Both have had long, highly decorated careers with the same team that drafted them, which is why they are ranked so high in this draft metric. These are generally Hall of Famers, with long, distinguished careers that included all-pro accolades- and mostly with the same team that drafted them. Guys like Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Brian Urlacher, Orlando Pace, JJ Watt, and Vikings picks Adrian Peterson, Daunte Culpepper, Kevin Williams, and Randy Moss.

Interestingly, both Moss and Culpepper just barely made this category (scoring 80 and 81 respectively) as the scoring doesn’t include their post-Vikings careers, which were very different. Had Moss had his same career entirely with the Vikings, I’m sure he would be much higher in this category. Culpepper may not have made it so high.

Overall This Shows How Difficult It Is To Draft Well

When guys like Christian Ponder, John Sullivan and Daunte Culpepper are considered good, great and legendary picks respectively, it shows, at least on a relative scale, how difficult it is to draft a quality starter.

Add to that the fact that a little over 2 out of every 3 players drafted are a bust - with over half (53%) of all draft picks adding no value to the team that drafted them- and 9 out of 10 have basically undistinguished careers in the NFL, and you get a better idea of what expectations should be for this year’s draft class adding a quality starter for the Vikings over many years.

Part II of this draft analysis will focus on how well the Vikings have drafted, and how well Rick Spielman has done since having the final say (rather than by committee) on draft picks beginning in 2012.
Image

"None of us are in the board room, locker room, or on the sideline, so in a way, we don't know shit."
- Otis Day


Read UOK's Summary of the Average Angry Bears Fan
MoFugger
Head Coach
Posts: 2518
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:55 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:28 pm

The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm
UOK wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
See my signature quote.
Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
Wow. Now I know why tigers eat their young.
It's like you're a Patriots fan that wants the Bears to be a combination of the Brown's and the Redskins.

This team went 20 and 12 in the last 2 years and to hear you tell it it's like we're a f****** doormat.
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Crafty Veteran
Posts: 884
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:40 pm

Also worth noting the 49ers record since Lynch took over and hired Shanahan:

2017: 6 - 10
2018: 4 -12
2019: 13 -3 (NFC Champions and may yet win Super Bowl LIV)

No doubt there were some 49ers fans clamouring to run the two of them out of town after last season. Wonder how they feel now...
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
MVP
Posts: 1949
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:37 am

MoFugger wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:28 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm


Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
Wow. Now I know why tigers eat their young.
It's like you're a Patriots fan that wants the Bears to be a combination of the Brown's and the Redskins.

This team went 20 and 12 in the last 2 years and to hear you tell it it's like we're a f****** doormat.
Not this tiger.

The past 35 years says I'm right.

After the '85 team we've had 1 Super Bowl appearance and 2 NFC Championship game appearances (1 is overlap with the SB).

That's a fucking disgrace.

I don't think the McCaskey's and their assorted employees following the departure of Ditka (except for a couple like Lovie, Angelo and Hatley to a certain degree) know their ass from a hole in the ground.

They've taken an original franchise with all the lore behind it and turned it into a shitshow.

Besides Cutler, what QB have we had in 35 years has been worth a damn? Wouldn't you think that after acquiring a century or more of collective experience between the McCaskey's and Phillips that they'd get it right ONCE? I think its a combination of incompetence and they'd feel threatened by having an established name at the helm of things.

Now we hired an offensive guru and its the OFFENSE that has gone to shit. They don't know what they're doing.
Image
Drone7
Player of the Month
Posts: 383
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:29 am

HisRoyalSweetness wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Also worth noting the 49ers record since Lynch took over and hired Shanahan:

2017: 6 - 10
2018: 4 -12
2019: 13 -3 (NFC Champions and may yet win Super Bowl LIV)

No doubt there were some 49ers fans clamouring to run the two of them out of town after last season. Wonder how they feel now...
You're probably alluding to those of us that want new management here.

But I recall some prominent Bears' fans on blogs and Twitter--Pace backers-- chortling and ridiculing Lynch / Shanahan last year, working out their angst about the Trubisky trade-up.

Which team looks like it has a brighter future now?
User avatar
Moriarty
MVP
Posts: 1818
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:22 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:48 am

UOK wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:24 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm


Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
PFR a few years ago, 2017 methinks, put together some numbers that indicate most people don't know shit because most players end up as nothing.

Here's a copypasta from a Vikings perspective summarizing that particular research:

------

Pro Football Reference put together a metric called “draft value” which attempts to rate the draft value of players at different positions to arrive at a measure of how well teams have drafted. It ranges from 0-160, with only 1% scoring 80 or higher. It weighs factors such as number of games started, individual stats, team performance and all-pro honors. It also does not include a player’s career after he was traded from the team that drafted him. So, for example, Jared Allen’s value to the Chiefs was much lower because it did not consider his career after he was traded to the Vikings.

BREAKING DOWN NFL DRAFT SUCCESS

Based on this metric, here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall:

16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them.

Most of these are draft picks that didn’t make the team, however, there were a few draft picks that were immediately traded that were of great value- Eli Manning and Philip Rivers for example. But generally these were few and far between so it is safe to say that most in this category (let’s say 16% of the 16.7%) were busts.

37% Were Considered “Useless”

Also known as busts. These are players that had a draft metric of between 0-4, and rarely or never saw the field. Guys like Ryan Leaf, Ryan Mallet and the Vikings’ 1999 1st round pick Dimitrius Underwood, to name a few. These are players that basically did nothing to help the team at all - and represent over a third of all draft picks over the past 20 years.

15.3% Were Considered “Poor”

Still pretty clearly in bust territory. These are players that had underwhelming careers with a draft metric between 5-10, and include some pretty well known busts such as Jamarcus Russell (who scored a 6).

So, if you add up these first three categories of bust (excluding a few draft pick trades that worked out), you come up with just over 68% of all draft picks over the past 20 years have been busts- over two-thirds of all draft picks.

10.5% Were Considered “Average”

This is also not a category that most would consider a successful draft pick, except perhaps a late round pick. Guys like Matt Leinart are in this category, as are Vikings picks such as Nate Burleson, Jasper Brinkley, and Jim Kleinsasser. These are guys that scored between 11-17 on the draft metric scale. These are journeymen that filled a role, but were otherwise undistinguished.

The one thing that comes to mind here is that the draft metric doesn’t consider the round the player was drafted in. A guy like Kleinsasser, for example, who was a good pick, becomes a little less so as a 2nd round pick that was average. As a 4th or 5th round pick, he would have been a much better value- and perhaps where you would pick a fullback these days.

12.3% - Were Considered “Good”

These are solid bread-and-butter players generally, who started many games, did reasonably well but not many accolades. These players scored between 18-35 on the draft metric scale. Guys like Michael Clayton, Carlos Rogers are considered here, as are Vikings picks Christian Ponder (!), Chris Hovan, Dwayne Rudd, Brandon Fusco, Ray Edwards, Moe Williams, and Sidney Rice.

Um, obviously there is a fairly wide definition of “good” used here, but strictly speaking I suspect the number of starts, rather than individual performance stats, had the greatest impact on most of these players being considered in this category. Again, if let’s say Ponder had been a 3rd or 4th round pick, the fact that he started as many games as he did might be more impressive than being picked 12th overall. But having been picked 12th overall, it’s hard not to see Ponder as anything more than a bust- despite being labelled “good” according to this metric.

Ponder is an example of where position makes a big difference- it’s a lot easier to call a mediocre interior lineman “good” as a draft pick that started for 4-5 years, but with a QB it’s a little different...

6.9% Were Considered “Great”

These were picks that started for many years and were also at least above average, but not necessarily elite, at their position. These players scored between 36-80 on the draft metric scale and included players such as Vikings draft picks Chad Greenway, Bryant McKinnie, Matt Birk, EJ Henderson, John Sullivan, and Phil Loadholt.

Again there is something of a range here, as the metric number range suggests, but these are all guys that a team got a lot of mileage out of, and had some pretty good years mixed in. The fact that guys like Birk and Sullivan were taken in the 6th round adds to their draft value in my view.

For many people, this is the expectation for any 1st round pick, and probably most other rounds too. But the fact remains that staggeringly few draft picks ever reach this level.

1% Were Considered “Legendary”

Tom Brady and Ray Lewis are at the top of the heap here, with a draft metric of 160. Both have had long, highly decorated careers with the same team that drafted them, which is why they are ranked so high in this draft metric. These are generally Hall of Famers, with long, distinguished careers that included all-pro accolades- and mostly with the same team that drafted them. Guys like Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Brian Urlacher, Orlando Pace, JJ Watt, and Vikings picks Adrian Peterson, Daunte Culpepper, Kevin Williams, and Randy Moss.

Interestingly, both Moss and Culpepper just barely made this category (scoring 80 and 81 respectively) as the scoring doesn’t include their post-Vikings careers, which were very different. Had Moss had his same career entirely with the Vikings, I’m sure he would be much higher in this category. Culpepper may not have made it so high.

Overall This Shows How Difficult It Is To Draft Well

When guys like Christian Ponder, John Sullivan and Daunte Culpepper are considered good, great and legendary picks respectively, it shows, at least on a relative scale, how difficult it is to draft a quality starter.

Add to that the fact that a little over 2 out of every 3 players drafted are a bust - with over half (53%) of all draft picks adding no value to the team that drafted them- and 9 out of 10 have basically undistinguished careers in the NFL, and you get a better idea of what expectations should be for this year’s draft class adding a quality starter for the Vikings over many years.

Part II of this draft analysis will focus on how well the Vikings have drafted, and how well Rick Spielman has done since having the final say (rather than by committee) on draft picks beginning in 2012.
The details of that analysis could be very interesting. But of what's in this paste, I'd say 2 things:
  • It's not that helpful without segmentation by rounds and/or different metrics by round.

    By that I mean, we're unable to compare, for example, whether the 3rd round brings a dropoff in quality from the 2nd round, and if so, by how much?
  • You have to be careful in interpreting this. By itself, what's presented here does not indicate "teams/drafters don't know what they're doing".

    Now if, for example, all 7 rounds had approximately the same hit rate (I think we all know they don't), that would be evidence that the pro drafters are clueless.
    Or if R7 rookies were 5% likely to be average or better, but undrafted rookies were 15% likely to be average or better, that would be evidence that those in charge don't know what they're doing.

    But simply noting that most draftees don't become Good or longtime starters isn't a knock on drafter capability. It's just the reality of the mathematics involved. 256 guys are drafted every year. But there's only 32 teams x 22ish starter positions = roughly 700 starters in the league. With most quality players having 6-10 years of prime in them, before their bodies start breaking down from age and wear, you can't possibly cycle in 256 new starters every year, no matter how smart the GMs are. The turnover rate only allows for (let's say 700/7) 100/yr - which comes out to a hit rate of very roughly 25%/yr (which is reasonably close to the "Good or better" percentage in the study).

    At the team level, not getting 7 starters with your 7 picks doesn't make you a dope. Nobody's making their 7th round pick with the belief that he's going to be a career starter. They're making it with the hope that maybe they can contribute something - depth, ST help, quality practice competition - and maybe a slim, outside shot at being something more significant.
1999-2002: Mouth Off Sports Forum (RIP)
2002-2014: KFFL (RIP)
2014-2016: USAToday Fantasy Sports Forum (RIP)

Hello, my name is Moriarty. I have come to kill your website, prepare to die.
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20958
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:47 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:29 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Also worth noting the 49ers record since Lynch took over and hired Shanahan:

2017: 6 - 10
2018: 4 -12
2019: 13 -3 (NFC Champions and may yet win Super Bowl LIV)

No doubt there were some 49ers fans clamouring to run the two of them out of town after last season. Wonder how they feel now...
You're probably alluding to those of us that want new management here.

But I recall some prominent Bears' fans on blogs and Twitter--Pace backers-- chortling and ridiculing Lynch / Shanahan last year, working out their angst about the Trubisky trade-up.

Which team looks like it has a brighter future now?
Lynch has drafted 27 players in three years. You could consider two of those players "stars". Nick Bosa and George Kittle.

There's a couple good ones in Deebo Samuel and Mike McGlinchey.

A couple contributors in Fred Warner and Ahkello Witherspoon.

That's it. Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, and C.J. Beathard were pretty big misses. To a lesser extent so were Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and Tarvarius Moore.

Not taking anything away from the season the Niners have had... but you are drastically overvaluing what Lynch has done just as badly as you undervalue what Pace has.
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
MVP
Posts: 1949
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:56 pm

UOK wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:26 pm
The Marshall Plan wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:04 pm


Based on the “results” the people who really are in the locker and board rooms for the Bears don’t know shit either.
PFR a few years ago, 2017 methinks, put together some numbers that indicate most people don't know shit because most players end up as nothing.
Just using logic, don’t you think a franchise would be capable of obtaining a franchise level QB more frequently than Haley’s Comet appears, because the Bears don’t seem to be able to do that.

The McCaskey’s have had opportunity after opportunity to show that their head is not up their ass because there appears to be a refusal to do things correctly. They can’t even announce an HC hire correctly (McGinnis) and these are people with centuries worth of experience.

It’s one blunder after another. For 35 years.

Spin The Wheel of Woe and it’ll land on something that the McCaskey’s have either done or fucked up. You name it, they’ve been a part of it.

And before somebody tells me to root for another team, again, I’m from here so I was born into this shit. I’m not going to be one of those asshole front runner fans like the Blackhawks got legions of during the last decade or so or one of those Packer fan who are from Chicago but do it because the Packers win. Or some selfie taking Cubs fan with an orange in my beer. Those people are pieces of shit if there ever were any.

I’m not the one that sucks. The McCaskey’s do. They can fuckin’ move to another team.

The McCaskey’s should stick to what they do best. Cash checks and call Dan Hampton for any mid-80s PR opportunities. Hire a strongman to run football operations. Move the family to Florida. Someplace warm. Don’t even allow them at the games. Just every two weeks there’s a direct deposit.
Image
Drone7
Player of the Month
Posts: 383
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:09 pm

wab wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:47 pm
Drone7 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:29 am


You're probably alluding to those of us that want new management here.

But I recall some prominent Bears' fans on blogs and Twitter--Pace backers-- chortling and ridiculing Lynch / Shanahan last year, working out their angst about the Trubisky trade-up.

Which team looks like it has a brighter future now?
Lynch has drafted 27 players in three years. You could consider two of those players "stars". Nick Bosa and George Kittle.

There's a couple good ones in Deebo Samuel and Mike McGlinchey.

A couple contributors in Fred Warner and Ahkello Witherspoon.

That's it. Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, and C.J. Beathard were pretty big misses. To a lesser extent so were Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and Tarvarius Moore.

Not taking anything away from the season the Niners have had... but you are drastically overvaluing what Lynch has done just as badly as you undervalue what Pace has.
Put the brakes on. You are taking away from their accomplishment, building what looks to be a good team not just this year.

Could they fall back next year? Yep. But I like what they are building more than the Bears. Here's why:

The Bears are have a soft, inept O and a very good defense. The 49s have some holes, but an excellent, young DL. They also have an excellent blocking O and a very solid if not spectacular QB. So they are better in the pits on the O side. And Shanny seems a better O coach than Matt Nagy.

I agree that Lynch hasn't been on the job long enough to certify him as a good GM yet, but it's looking up there regardless of the SB outcome. They still need some players in the secondary and WR.

Give you another example of Bears' fan hubris. At the end of 2018 when they were 2018, many voiced that the Packers were done dominating them.

It's better to just see how it plays out.
Last edited by Drone7 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
The Marshall Plan
MVP
Posts: 1949
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:47 am

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:24 pm

wab wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:47 pm
Drone7 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:29 am


You're probably alluding to those of us that want new management here.

But I recall some prominent Bears' fans on blogs and Twitter--Pace backers-- chortling and ridiculing Lynch / Shanahan last year, working out their angst about the Trubisky trade-up.

Which team looks like it has a brighter future now?
Lynch has drafted 27 players in three years. You could consider two of those players "stars". Nick Bosa and George Kittle.

There's a couple good ones in Deebo Samuel and Mike McGlinchey.

A couple contributors in Fred Warner and Ahkello Witherspoon.

That's it. Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, and C.J. Beathard were pretty big misses. To a lesser extent so were Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and Tarvarius Moore.

Not taking anything away from the season the Niners have had... but you are drastically overvaluing what Lynch has done just as badly as you undervalue what Pace has.
You’re leaving out QB.

Lynch got Jimmy G for a 2nd rounder. QB problem solved.

Pace gave a $45M contract to Glennon and then traded up for Mitch (with both Watson AND Mahomes still on the board) and we still don’t know what we have.

So OK, if Lynch is being overvalued in his importance then what does that make Pace?
Image
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20958
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:46 pm

Just using logic, don’t you think a franchise would be capable of obtaining a franchise level QB more frequently than Haley’s Comet appears, because the Bears don’t seem to be able to do that.
I think you could apply that statement to all but like a half dozen teams over the last two decades.
Lynch got Jimmy G for a 2nd rounder. QB problem solved.
I don't think you can definitively say that he's done enough yet to be anointed as a franchise QB.

FWIW, Jimmy's 2019 stats are more or less the same as Mitch's 2018 stats.
User avatar
HisRoyalSweetness
Crafty Veteran
Posts: 884
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:20 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:28 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:29 am
HisRoyalSweetness wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Also worth noting the 49ers record since Lynch took over and hired Shanahan:

2017: 6 - 10
2018: 4 -12
2019: 13 -3 (NFC Champions and may yet win Super Bowl LIV)

No doubt there were some 49ers fans clamouring to run the two of them out of town after last season. Wonder how they feel now...
You're probably alluding to those of us that want new management here.
Image
"I congratulate you on your perspicacity sir!"
Drone7
Player of the Month
Posts: 383
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:34 pm

Do I hear 8-8 for the 49s next season?
User avatar
wab
Mod
Posts: 20958
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: good news: no one has to listen to john lynch on gameday!

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:47 pm

Drone7 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:34 pm
Do I hear 8-8 for the 49s next season?
Can you predict offseason activities and overall team health too?

Return to “Around the NFL”