Should The Bears Extend Adrian Amos?

[Bearfacts]

In the contract extension game of "next man" up it's Amos whose on deck. After reading Bill Zimmerman's column and analysis what's the general belief here?



Should the Chicago Bears extend Adrian Amos?
by Bill Zimmerman5 hours agoFollow @ZimmermanSXM


Should the Chicago Bears extend Adrian Amos before the season ends?

After the Chicago Bears signed Khalil Mack to a massive extension after trading for the defensive superstar, Ryan Pace quickly followed that up by inking nose tackle Eddie Goldman to a 4-year, $42 million extension.

It was a smart play by Pace to lock down one of the key pieces to the defense before Goldman hit free agency next offseason. The Bears have several pieces on their defense locked down now for several years, but the one that still has an uncertain future is Adrian Amos.

Pace has been very smart on how he’s handled his defensive contracts which means he can keep his core group of players together for several years. As of right now, Mack is under contract until 2024. Goldman and rookie Roquan Smith are locked down until 2022. Akiem Hicks and Kyle Fuller are locked in until 2021. Eddie Jackson, Leonard Floyd and Prince Amukamara are locked in until 2020. If the Bears don’t make him a cap casualty, even Danny Trevathan is under contract through 2019 (as is Jonathan Bullard). Roy Robertson-Harris is a restricted free agent after this season.

Of course, the Bears also have rookies in Bilal Nichols, Kylie Fitts, Joel Iyiegbuniwe and Kevin Toliver that they also control for multiple years as the Bears hope they can develop into contributors on the defensive side of the ball.

As you can see looking at the contract structures, Pace has been careful to craft a window of three years, 2018 to 2020, where this defense is going to be together. This is Pace’s first window to win a championship. Pace and Matt Nagy will hope that a team built around a stellar defense with a good running game and what they hope is a solid young quarterback in Mitch Trubisky can win this team a championship.

The one name that may not fit into the big picture is Adrian Amos.

Amos had a solid rookie campaign but struggled in his second year. His struggles reached a point that entering his third season, the Bears felt it best to sign Quentin Demps and move Amos to a backup role in the secondary. After Demps was injured early in the season, Amos was given his starting spot back and took every advantage of it.

Amos had a solid season for the Bears in 2017. Pro Football Focus loves Amos’ game and has tabbed him as an elite safety in the NFL. Clearly the Bears are going to want to keep Amos around, but with the attention he’s garnered from PFF, could that push up his value past what the Bears’ want to pay?

If Amos wants to be paid like an elite safety, he’s going to have to test free agency and see if his market is what he believes it to be. The Bears simply will not, and should not, pay that price for Amos. The Bears have a salary cap they need to manage and they have already committed a significant amount of salary to the defensive side of the ball. How much more can they plunk down on the defense?

The issue the Bears face is that they don’t have the “next man up” on the roster. Next man up is always a philosophy that exists in the NFL. With contracts not guaranteed, injuries constantly happening, and the salary cap being what it is, teams always need to have a young, hungry player ready to replace a veteran when the team wants to move on.

The only player the Bears currently have waiting in the wings is Deon Bush and he has not proven to anyone that he can be an every down safety. The Bears are opening a window to compete, yet if they let Amos walk, they would be creating a hole at safety with no logical replacement on the roster.

The best thing for the team is to keep Amos around, but if Amos wants elite safety (think top 10 at the position), then the Bears are going to have to be willing to pay Amos what would probably be a four-year deal with a total value between $30 and $35 million and about $20 million of that will have to be guaranteed.

That is a steep price to pay and it would significantly limit what the Bears can do with their roster financially. The Bears probably see Amos in the range of a 3-year contract worth about $15 to $18 million and would be willing to guarantee $10 to $12 million of it. That’s simply my guess, but based on how they value positions and what Pace has previously done, that makes sense.

If those two estimates are anywhere near accurate, the Bears and Amos are far apart right now on a deal. That means even if the Bears want to extend Amos this season, they won’t be able to. Amos will want to test free agency and see if his value is what he expects it to be.

At this point, the Bears should have a wait-and-see approach. If Amos repeats the type of season he had last year and adds play-making ability to his already solid play, the Bears might need to really consider ponying up the cash. But if Amos slips a little this season, or even repeats the type of season he had last year, where he is a consistent, solid performer, but fails to make major impact plays regularly, the Bears might need to let Amos walk and look to sign a more affordable safety.

The best hope for Chicago is that Amos tests the market and finds out his value is closer to what the Bears think it is, and he’s willing to re-sign in Chicago on what would mostly be a team-friendly deal. It’ll be an interesting year for Amos. He’s the last of the key pieces that isn’t locked down long-term. Now the only question is, will he ever be?

[BR0D1E86]

The easy answer is no, if he expects to be paid like PFF rates him. I’d be perfectly happy to keep him around, but more at an average to slightly above average salary for his position rather than an elite one.

[Atkins&Rebel]

Shitty safeties lead to shitty defenses, and we've struggled to find a decent pair since 2006. So the easy answer is yes.

[wab]

Yes. Absolutely.

[The Marshall Plan]

Amos has a cap hit of about $2M this year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/ca ... ng-safety/

Berry's contract is ridiculous and that shouldn't be factored into a top 5 or average of the top x discussion.

Just to approximate take the top strong safety cap hits this year and exclude Berry's since its an outlier by about +$4M over the second highest paid safety (Berry: $13M v Chancellor: $9.3M) and we're around $6M for Amos.

He's at $2M so that's an extra $4M hit to our cap.

I don't see the problem given that White will have to stay on a significantly reduced deal. Sims has to go. I wouldn't mind saying goodbye to Kyle Long as part of the right side of the line rebuild we desperately need. We don't have a first to tie up cap money. We draft Howard's replacement instead of tying up cap money on RB.

[cblaz11]

He has turned into a very consistent player for us..He doesn’t creat turnovers and that’s what is keeping him from breaking the bank. That said, at 6 mill per, I absolutely lock him up.

[IotaNet]

... we've struggled to find a decent pair since 2006. So the easy answer is yes.

This right here.

[Bearfacts]

FWIW here's an early look at the 2019 Draft Class Safeties

http://breakingfootball.com/2019-nfl-dr ... s-preview/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://walterfootball.com/draft2019S.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2018/08/ ... st-safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.drafttek.com/2019-NFL-Draft- ... -Draft.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Drafttek.com uses some customized positional codes. Teams may have specific needs in what they look for in certain positions - we provide sub-position groupings to help out in this regard. Here are Positional Definitions for the sub-groups that we use.

Rnk O/A Rnk Change Player/School Ht/Wt BIO S/R
1 29 +10 Marvell Tell III/USC 6'2" 195 BIO --
2 51 +5 Lukas Denis/Boston College 5'11"188 BIO --
3 69 +5 Jaquan Johnson/Miami (FL) 5'11"190 BIO --
4 91 +4 Tyree Kinnel/Michigan 5'11"201 BIO --
5 102 +7 David Dowell/Michigan St 6'0" 191 BIO --
6 128 -11 Andrew Wingard/Wyoming 5'11"209 BIO --
7 140 -6 Brandon Bryant/Miss.St 5'11"215 BIO --
8 146 +1 D'Cota Dixon/Wisconsin 5'10"204 BIO --
9 179 -7 Prentice McKinney/Okla 6'0" 195 BIO --
10 204 NEW Chris Johnson/North Ala 6'3" 200 BIO --
11 207 -6 Jalen Young/Florida Atl 5'11"185 BIO --
12 213 NEW Taylor Rapp/Wash 6'0" 207 BIO --
13 226 NEW Amani Hooker/Iowa 6'0" 210 BIO --
14 246 NEW J.R. Reed/Georgia 6'1" 194 BIO --
15 247 NEW Johnathan Abram/Miss St 6'0" 215 BIO --

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pro ... g-safeties" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[GSH]

I think we have to draft at safety anyway for depth, regardless if he gets re-signed or not.

That said, I would love to go at least a couple more years with some consistency on the team rather than a constantly revolving door at key positions. Amos is solid and would hopefully grow into his potential after more time with the same team while a rookie develops behind him. Secondary has been weak for years, cut some of the other dead weight on the roster like sims and cooper and pay Amos something like $6mil a year.

[malk]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

[BR0D1E86]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

Probably not, which is why I can’t see him signing long term with our other committed salaries.

Can we tender him with a pick compensation? I’m far from strong on nfl salary cap rules.

[Bearfacts]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

I think much depends on what kind of year he has in 2018 and if he stays healthy for 16 games.

These are the top deal for NFL SS. If Amos continues to rate as an elite Safety a top five deal is a given.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/co ... ng-safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think Jefferson's deal which makes him #4 is a likely target but that deal was signed in March 2017. Extending Amos now or next winter would in all likelihood mean a deal that pays more than Jefferson's $19 mil gtd/$8.5 mil apy.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-r ... son-12541/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

FWIW if Amos continues to rank as highly as he does we're probably looking at more than $20 mil gtd and closer to $9-$10 mil apy especially when the top guys are getting $12-$13 mil apy.

[malk]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

I think much depends on what kind of year he has in 2018 and if he stays healthy for 16 games.

These are the top deal for NFL SS. If Amos continues to rate as an elite Safety a top five deal is a given.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/co ... ng-safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think Jefferson's deal which makes him #4 is a likely target but that deal was signed in March 2017. Extending Amos now or next winter would in all likelihood mean a deal that pays more than Jefferson's $19 mil gtd/$8.5 mil apy.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-r ... son-12541/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

FWIW if Amos continues to rank as highly as he does we're probably looking at more than $20 mil gtd and closer to $9-$10 mil apy especially when the top guys are getting $12-$13 mil apy.

I'd be offering $8m per now on that basis.

[Moriarty]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

Probably not, which is why I can’t see him signing long term with our other committed salaries.

Can we tender him with a pick compensation? I’m far from strong on nfl salary cap rules.

No tenders, he's unrestricted.

Best you can hope for is maybe a 2020 late compensatory for losing him. (And that would probably require losing another starter, pending who gets brought in.)

[Bearfacts]

Does anyone really see him signing for less than Tony Jefferson's 4 years $34m?

I think much depends on what kind of year he has in 2018 and if he stays healthy for 16 games.

These are the top deal for NFL SS. If Amos continues to rate as an elite Safety a top five deal is a given.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/co ... ng-safety/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think Jefferson's deal which makes him #4 is a likely target but that deal was signed in March 2017. Extending Amos now or next winter would in all likelihood mean a deal that pays more than Jefferson's $19 mil gtd/$8.5 mil apy.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-r ... son-12541/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

FWIW if Amos continues to rank as highly as he does we're probably looking at more than $20 mil gtd and closer to $9-$10 mil apy especially when the top guys are getting $12-$13 mil apy.

I'd be offering $8m per now on that basis.

Has Pace ever given an extension once the season has begun?

The biggest factor will always be the guaranteed money more so than the salaries and any new money will almost certainly need to go against the 2019 cap and after. The cap numbers following the Goldman extension leave us with just over $6 mil in cap left to cover the 2018 season. Can Amos be signed for less than $20 mil gtd?


Bears 2018 Cap Totals

Maximum Salary Cap:
$184,808,858
Active Contracts:
$162,393,978
Injured Reserve:
$1,343,304
Dead Cap:
$12,429,613
Total Cap:
$178,556,895
Est. Cap Space:
$6,251,963

[malk]

Has Pace ever given an extension once the season has begun?

There's a reason I'm not Pace's biggest fan!

[crueltyabc]

Yes. And he had a great first game so I expect that he'll continue to make a case for himself tonight.

[EricTighe]

Keep the money in the front seven. That being said I love Amos and would love to see him stay.

To be honest if Floyd doesn't start producing it makes the situation very easy. Use the money for Floyd and re sign Amos. Addition by subtraction.

Production over potential everyday of the week. Right now Floyd is still more Hype the reality.

[Middleguard]

Yes, if possible. Donatell and Fangio are what matters. They should set his value and the cap guys should find it. If Amos' agent thinks PFF values him more, then Amos will have to go FA and see if PFF gives him a better offer.

[Bearfacts]

FWIW this was an item in Brad Biggs 10 Thoughts this week.

7. The Bears are probably done handing out big contracts — I mean really big contracts — for a while after the extension to nose tackle Eddie Goldman. Could safety Adrian Amos eventually be paid? That’s possible, but at some point the Bears are not going to be able to pay everyone and they’ll finally get back into the game of picking up occasional compensatory draft picks (which happens only when you allow players whom other teams covet to walk in free agency). It’s always wise to track the marketplace when it comes to the largest contracts across the league and given the ongoing stare-down between the Steelers and running back Le’Veon Bell.

I asked former agent Joel Corry, who is now a contract and salary-cap expert for CBS Sports, if we should expect to see more players either playing out their contracts to reach the open market or holding out in order to get raises. “You’ve got to get them (signed) before the (contract) season starts because there becomes a point in time during the season where the guy has incurred enough of a risk for injury and poor performance that he would rather just see it through. So you better do it early, so you either do it now or during the first quarter of the season because he might go, ‘You know what, I’ll play out the string.’

I'd be interested to know whether or not Pace has had any discussions with Amos' agent about an extension or whether he's content to wait out this season, see how much cap rollover he has, make his decisions on those who won't return, and then approach it.

IMHO this could be another situation like Fuller's where he'll allow Amos to receive offer under a tag that will allow him to match it. If he wants to extend him now Amos will have to agree that most of his guaranteed money will come in 2019 and after. There's not much excess cap remaining now.

[G08]

I like Amos but this is a case of "you can't pay everyone". If he doesn't have a big market, yeah definitely do it. If he does... I'd thank him for his service and give the savings to Eddie Jackson on his next deal. That kid is a stud.

[wab]

I really like Amos, but G08 is right... they can't pay everyone and they seem to be high on DHC. Bush even looked pretty good in preseason.

Given the fact that the Bears haven't had stability at safety since Mike Brown and Tony Parrish, it would be nice if they kept him.

[southdakbearfan]

Pass rush can make really average safeties look very good. Amos is solid, but some team will way overpay him most likely.

I value Jackson a lot more than Amos.

[cblaz11]

I love Amos...But if he won’t sign a deal that benefits both parties then we move on. Bush seems to have progressed and may be ready to step into a starting role.

[Mikefive]

I really like Amos, but G08 is right... they can't pay everyone and they seem to be high on DHC. Bush even looked pretty good in preseason.

Given the fact that the Bears haven't had stability at safety since Mike Brown and Tony Parrish, it would be nice if they kept him.

Mostly this. I think they really like Bush.

[MrChamploo]

It come's down to the money i believe.
Why wouldn't you keep him if he accepts the right amount of cash.

I really think that's the ultimate decider.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

I really like Amos, but G08 is right... they can't pay everyone and they seem to be high on DHC. Bush even looked pretty good in preseason.

Given the fact that the Bears haven't had stability at safety since Mike Brown and Tony Parrish, it would be nice if they kept him.

Mostly this. I think they really like Bush.

Mikefive...don't we all...?

[southdakbearfan]

I really like Amos, but G08 is right... they can't pay everyone and they seem to be high on DHC. Bush even looked pretty good in preseason.

Given the fact that the Bears haven't had stability at safety since Mike Brown and Tony Parrish, it would be nice if they kept him.

Mostly this. I think they really like Bush.

Mikefive...don't we all...?

Sometimes I prefer a Brazilian to bush.

Ha.

[Sugashane]

I really like Amos, but G08 is right... they can't pay everyone and they seem to be high on DHC. Bush even looked pretty good in preseason.

Given the fact that the Bears haven't had stability at safety since Mike Brown and Tony Parrish, it would be nice if they kept him.

Mostly this. I think they really like Bush.

Mikefive...don't we all...?

Sometimes I prefer a Brazilian to bush.

Ha.

Same here. I told my wife (then girlfriend) I'd shave my face if she shaved that off, and meant it as a joke. That was 2006 (I remember only because it was my freshman year of college). She ended up matching me shave for shave so I haven't grown a beard yet. It is just regular maintenance for us now.

Maybe she is conditioned enough that she won't remember or stop if I grow it out? I'm 30 and have no fuckin clue what my beard looks like. lol

[Knuckles]

Looking back at our Ss from Conte on back to Brown, in that time (other than Brown) we had what one good S Haris? We also had Manning who sucked for all but his last year then they got rid of him lol. I remember saying every draft we need a S but they would always either not pick one or pick a late round dud.

Both our S's are good we need to keep them together so long as they can afford both but if I had to pick one it would be Jackson he's a ballhawk and exciting to watch. Amos is great against the run though it's a good combo.