Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

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RichH55
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Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 09, 2020 9:09 am

Here is my thinking:

Here are the Cap Hits for Rodgers 2021-2023 for a team that trades for Rodgers (I.E. This is ONLY what GB would clear by dealing Rodgers)
His Cap Hits for a team trading for him are very, very reasonable
2021. 14.7 or 21.5. (Depending on if dealt before or after Roster Bonus paid!!)
2022. 25.5
2023 25.5

That is not bad - Would only add to his as a trade chip

Granted Rookie QBs are pretty much ALWAYS going to be much, much cheaper than even a solid Vet let alone a good Vet(*)


(*) Having even a solid QB, let alone a stud, on his Rookie contract is the ultimate NFL Cheat code (stealing from others there)

Now the other thing about drafting Love this year as part of the plan - How long do you hold onto Rodgers?

You are burning one of those valuable Love rookie contract years in 2020 (part of the allure of the Drafted QB IMHO) - Would you burn another one in 2021?

If you want til 2022 you pay the Roster Bonus in 2021 and his trade value is less than it would be (and you waited an extra year to get your Picks for him if you are GB)

So the sweet spot really seems to be right about the start of the 2021 League year (unless you get Rodgers to push back the roster bonus due date)



SOOOOOO - What would the market be for Rodgers?

I assume 1st + easily - What would the plus be?
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 09, 2020 1:57 pm

I want the declining Aaron Rodgers and that contract stuck on GB for as many years as we can get out of it.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 09, 2020 3:59 pm

This ^^^^
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Mikefive
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 09, 2020 7:56 pm

Love the idea. And since we're a threat in the same division with a QB weak link, I'm sure GB hates it even more.
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RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sun May 10, 2020 12:35 pm

Richie wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:57 pm
I want the declining Aaron Rodgers and that contract stuck on GB for as many years as we can get out of it.
Declining equals what still Top 5 at the position?

I.E. an absolutely fantastic outcome for any Rookie picked (especially Love)

And the Cap Hit to a new team is pretty low for a QB - It will be like 20th (in that range) for QB

This is not something we want
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Mon May 11, 2020 11:28 pm

RichH55 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 12:35 pm
Richie wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:57 pm
I want the declining Aaron Rodgers and that contract stuck on GB for as many years as we can get out of it.
Declining equals what still Top 5 at the position?

I.E. an absolutely fantastic outcome for any Rookie picked (especially Love)

And the Cap Hit to a new team is pretty low for a QB - It will be like 20th (in that range) for QB

This is not something we want
Outside of the "run the table" 2nd half of 2016? Aaron Rodgers has been on a steady decline since the 2014 NFCCG and has not been elite since that time. That is a flat fact. Backed up by many different metrics.

He is a fringe top ten "good" QB at this point and trending downward. He's "elite" at one thing still. Which is not throwing picks. Which he does not do - because he eats an impossible amount of sacks and throwaways.

There is nothing else you can point to beyond that to say that Rodgers is still "elite". His other numbers are barely better than league average. In some cases, worse. Especially when you start looking into his numbers throwing the ball down the field. Advanced metrics, etc.

Yes, we WANT Aaron Rodgers and his contract on the Packers. Love just being average with the possibility of improving, plus that money freed up is a better scenario for them over the next few years.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Tue May 12, 2020 2:14 pm

Richie wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 11:28 pm
RichH55 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 12:35 pm


Declining equals what still Top 5 at the position?

I.E. an absolutely fantastic outcome for any Rookie picked (especially Love)

And the Cap Hit to a new team is pretty low for a QB - It will be like 20th (in that range) for QB

This is not something we want
Outside of the "run the table" 2nd half of 2016? Aaron Rodgers has been on a steady decline since the 2014 NFCCG and has not been elite since that time. That is a flat fact. Backed up by many different metrics.

He is a fringe top ten "good" QB at this point and trending downward. He's "elite" at one thing still. Which is not throwing picks. Which he does not do - because he eats an impossible amount of sacks and throwaways.

There is nothing else you can point to beyond that to say that Rodgers is still "elite". His other numbers are barely better than league average. In some cases, worse. Especially when you start looking into his numbers throwing the ball down the field. Advanced metrics, etc.

Yes, we WANT Aaron Rodgers and his contract on the Packers. Love just being average with the possibility of improving, plus that money freed up is a better scenario for them over the next few years.
Well this is a supremely terrible take - Across the board

They only save his base salary - and if they trade him in 2021 (let's be fair to you and say it's before the Roster Bonus is due) then it actually accelerates the money he was still due

Which means your actual Cap Savings in 2021 isn't actually all that much (though totally off the books in 2022 and 2023 that way)


And if you want to argue he isn't what he was (with no WR threats, etc.) or isn't Maholmes - Sure.

Not top 10??!?! (or Fringe Top 10??!?). That's a bad take

He has 6 INT - the last 2 seasons combined - 6!

4400 Yards and 2 INT in 2018 (Apparently that is 3-4 years into this terrible Decline?)

Jordan Love is very unlikely to ever have any year in his career as good as Rodger's 2018 (One of the the Decline years)


His Sack numbers are also no where near as bad as you make them out to be - no where near - This is NOT Deshawn Watson. - He does hold the ball longer than average (TRUE) but the Sack rate is not egregious for that (and that has been a pretty average OL - besides Backtari the last few years)

The weapons he has on Offense - have not been very good the last few years as well - And D. Adams missed 4 Games Entirety last year


Supporting Cast does matter some right? Throwing to Deandre Hopkins or Julio Jones instead of Allen Lazard and Geronimo Allison might make SOME difference, right?
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wab
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Tue May 12, 2020 5:43 pm

Shit, I'd happily take a "declining" Aaron Rodgers. A declining Rodgers is still probably the 3rd or 4th best QB in the NFL.
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dplank
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 11:30 am

Yea, that guy has killed us for years. He's still one of the best in the league, but I do think his heart isn't "all in" anymore. He's famous, famous girl, commercials all the time, and acts like an entitled brat. I truly hate him. But I'd take him as our QB in a nanosecond.

However, there is NO EFFING WAY that GB trades Erin to Chicago. No way no how not ever.
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 3:58 pm

RichH55 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 2:14 pm
Richie wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 11:28 pm


Outside of the "run the table" 2nd half of 2016? Aaron Rodgers has been on a steady decline since the 2014 NFCCG and has not been elite since that time. That is a flat fact. Backed up by many different metrics.

He is a fringe top ten "good" QB at this point and trending downward. He's "elite" at one thing still. Which is not throwing picks. Which he does not do - because he eats an impossible amount of sacks and throwaways.

There is nothing else you can point to beyond that to say that Rodgers is still "elite". His other numbers are barely better than league average. In some cases, worse. Especially when you start looking into his numbers throwing the ball down the field. Advanced metrics, etc.

Yes, we WANT Aaron Rodgers and his contract on the Packers. Love just being average with the possibility of improving, plus that money freed up is a better scenario for them over the next few years.
Well this is a supremely terrible take - Across the board

They only save his base salary - and if they trade him in 2021 (let's be fair to you and say it's before the Roster Bonus is due) then it actually accelerates the money he was still due

Which means your actual Cap Savings in 2021 isn't actually all that much (though totally off the books in 2022 and 2023 that way)


And if you want to argue he isn't what he was (with no WR threats, etc.) or isn't Maholmes - Sure.

Not top 10??!?! (or Fringe Top 10??!?). That's a bad take

He has 6 INT - the last 2 seasons combined - 6!

4400 Yards and 2 INT in 2018 (Apparently that is 3-4 years into this terrible Decline?)

Jordan Love is very unlikely to ever have any year in his career as good as Rodger's 2018 (One of the the Decline years)


His Sack numbers are also no where near as bad as you make them out to be - no where near - This is NOT Deshawn Watson. - He does hold the ball longer than average (TRUE) but the Sack rate is not egregious for that (and that has been a pretty average OL - besides Backtari the last few years)

The weapons he has on Offense - have not been very good the last few years as well - And D. Adams missed 4 Games Entirety last year


Supporting Cast does matter some right? Throwing to Deandre Hopkins or Julio Jones instead of Allen Lazard and Geronimo Allison might make SOME difference, right?
Oh, GAWD... really? Rodgers has been getting those excuses for 5 seasons. Just give it a rest.

So, "it's a terrible take"... Even though you AGREE Rodgers hasn't been elite. You just don't blame him. Hmm... That doesn't sound like you believe it's a terrible take. As much as we simply disagree on the reason he isn't elite anymore.
Not top 10??!?! (or Fringe Top 10??!?). That's a bad take

He has 6 INT - the last 2 seasons combined - 6!

4400 Yards and 2 INT in 2018 (Apparently that is 3-4 years into this terrible Decline?)
This actually made me laugh out loud, for real. All people can do is butt their heads against the "BUT HIS INT'S ARE LOW!" talking point.

You're using his 2018 RAW YARDAGE!? Eww! Just eww, dude. He was not good that season. Look at how inefficient he was. 8,400 passing yards over two seasons isn't anything impressive these days anyway.

I included throwaways, didn't I? I didn't say it was ALL sacks. Rodgers protects his TD/INT ratio like Russell Westbrook pursues triple doubles. He puts it above all else much of the time.

Again, what else besides the lack of INT's is elite?

I'm not debating a FLAT FACT. So, I'll just post what the facts say for you.

This article was even published BEFORE last season. When he got even worse.

Please, read.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ar ... arterback/
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 4:33 pm

I mean - yes you addressed it - IF you ignore the fact that you are missing the point of them

Your honor - my guilty - if you look past the fact he killed that guy - is only guilty of barely top ten type crimes~!

I do like that the Article you want me to read notes he isn't performing well on Play Action passes (ok). But also called out his record


Elite? I mean it really depends on your definition - Is he the best at QB right now? Nope - That's Maholmes


You said he's a Fringe Top 10 QB though - which is absolutely terrible as a take (I mean, I WISH it were true as a Bears Homer - but my god is it Terrible)

Rodgers is basically a Top 5 QB right now in a Year where there is a LOT of good QB play - to me that is Elite

If you compare it to Maholmes now or Rodgers in his absolute Zenith? Nope

There is a LOT of daylight between not as good as Patrick Maholmes and Fringe Top 10 - Like Oceans worth

But we are comparing it to his Peer Group - Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, J. Winston, Mitch Fing Trubisky - He is still better than them

Record in 2019 with a fine (not great) defense, ok talent generally and this "Fringe Top 10" QB? 13-3.



INT are INCREDIBLY important. That is VERY, VERY QB dependent.

TD (which Rodgers has good numbers in ) can be skewed a bit (Scoring Offense is generally more important there - though even that can be skewed by - but still Good numbers

But Winston - 30 TD, 5000+ Yards (Yards LED the league and both numbers superior to Rodgers) - He is a backup in the league now - due to INT.


Watson took something like 54 Sacks last year - I think Rodgers was around 40? (Mitch was at 38?). But to you that's Rodgers taking a ton of extra sacks so he didn't throw INT????

I mean - FRINGE TOP TEN

Terrible take number 1

(*) No caveats there - it's just a bad, bad take

Packers better off without him (hence you are glad they are keeping him and paying his high salary - even though the Base part of the Salary isn't that bad)

Terrible take number 2 (**)

(**) At least here you could argue you LOVE Jordan Love (Jordan Love though is what QB in the 2020 Draft are to Rodgers overall v. all league QB at least based on Love's draft position - AND that you think saving the money in 2022 and 2023 could help the Packers either keep current players or Add players in FA. AND maybe you think they would get a King's ransom when they deal Rodgers (not unfair there!)

But that isn't the case you tried to build. - Rather it's the extra 20-25 million per year (HIGHEST END ESTIMATE TOO )to have Rodgers on the Team rather than not on it - That's the thing holding the Packers back and thank god for it?

Wow.
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 4:36 pm

dplank wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 11:30 am
Yea, that guy has killed us for years. He's still one of the best in the league, but I do think his heart isn't "all in" anymore. He's famous, famous girl, commercials all the time, and acts like an entitled brat. I truly hate him. But I'd take him as our QB in a nanosecond.

However, there is NO EFFING WAY that GB trades Erin to Chicago. No way no how not ever.


Dplank you think he's "Fringe Top Ten" only? (Heart even half way in?)

Though you could make the case that the Jordan Love pick could have a great effect for the Packers by lighting a Fire under Rodgers - Pushing him from merely Elite relative to Peers and times - to his previous in the discussion for Best Ever?

Though - they also have the OL worse, didn't really add any WR - etc. So he's going to have to be Atlas again for that team
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 4:38 pm

And Dplank - that isn't meant as me thinking you said the Fringe Top Ten - I'm just curious as to your opinion on Current Rodgers (i.e. Fringe Top Ten - more credit than I'm giving it - or yeah - it was a really foolish statement)

I'm assuming you agree with me here - but asking as I'm curious
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Wed May 13, 2020 4:40 pm

It does amaze me that people are like - Having to pay Aaron Rodgers $20 million more a year to be ON the team rather than OFF of it - THANK GOD since that will hold the Packers back

Buy paying Jacoby Brissett (Richie - is Rodgers at least better than Brissett??!) 28 million for 1 extra season - How could anyone say that's a Bad Contract?
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Thu May 14, 2020 9:17 am

yeesh
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dplank
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Thu May 14, 2020 10:45 am

RichH55 wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 4:36 pm
dplank wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 11:30 am
Yea, that guy has killed us for years. He's still one of the best in the league, but I do think his heart isn't "all in" anymore. He's famous, famous girl, commercials all the time, and acts like an entitled brat. I truly hate him. But I'd take him as our QB in a nanosecond.

However, there is NO EFFING WAY that GB trades Erin to Chicago. No way no how not ever.


Dplank you think he's "Fringe Top Ten" only? (Heart even half way in?)

Though you could make the case that the Jordan Love pick could have a great effect for the Packers by lighting a Fire under Rodgers - Pushing him from merely Elite relative to Peers and times - to his previous in the discussion for Best Ever?

Though - they also have the OL worse, didn't really add any WR - etc. So he's going to have to be Atlas again for that team
Here's how I see QB rankings heading into 2020, strictly in terms of this upcoming year only, not thinking about future upside, etc...just who would I want for this one season.

1. Mahomes
2. Brees
3. Wilson
4. Rodgers
5. Jackson
6. Watson
7. Prescott
8. Stafford
9. Wentz
10. Chase Daniel :nana:

I think Mahomes is the clear #1 and Brees/Wilson are the next tier/closest. I group Rodgers in with Jackson, Watson, and Prescott even though they are obviously very different style players. I could see Rodgers up with Brees WIlson, or leading the pack at that next tier - could go either way there. I see no scenario where Rodgers falls below 6, the only guys I could possibly see ahead of him are Jackson and Watson. If futures were taken into account I'd take both guys over Rodgers due to age, but that's not the drill here.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Thu May 14, 2020 12:53 pm

Lamar Jackson is super interesting to me - in that I have no idea how to rate him properly

Though - I'm not sure he's built for the Long Term either

I know we have gone back and forth on Watson (I have him lower for sure) - But this should be a SUPER interesting season for him.

I think losing Hopkins is really going to hurt him - Not just the production (which was great) but how Defenses keyed on him - And I do think supporting cast matters

I think he's in a bad situation honestly - Tunsil and his contract are going to eat up a TON of Cap Space - they lost a lot of draft picks for Tunsil (worse trade than Mack for a number of reasons) so not a lot of areas to help make the team better

I think that team is going to have to get rid of Cooks and David Johnson - Probably after 1 year (DO they have the balls to admit that level of mistakes?). I was going to say Cobb - but his entire 2021 Salary is guaranteed

And Dplank - I don't plan on keeping mentioning Watson all off season (or even after Week 1 - good or bad) - I do look forward to revisiting it around Midseason though.

Might be fresh again by then and we will have more games
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am

Watson has been in a bad situation since he got there, with the only exception being Hopkins. What you are forgetting is how bad that offense was before Watson took over, and that was WITH Hopkins and Fuller. And THE MOMENT WATSON TOOK OVER, they got good. They appear to have an ego maniacal head coach. That Hopkins trade was Rick Mirer bad, it's been a long time since I've seen one that bad.

But make sure you're fair when evaluating him. You think Erin is a top 5 QB, limited by the weapons around him right? And that's why he was the 14th rated by QBR last year, with not great passing numbers frankly other than TD/INT ratio. I agree with you. So make sure you give that same view on Watson next year. Additionally, I don't know how you do this personally, but you have to include rushing in your evaluation of him as well. It's a major part of his game, you can't just include it as some after thought while pointing to pure passing numbers as the majority of your basis of evaluation. And BTW it's that rushing that drives sacks and time spent holding the ball - you know who gets sacked even more than Watson? Russell Wilson. Is there ANY view that Wilson isn't a Top 3 QB right now? Watson ran for over 400 yards and 7 touchdowns (not QB sneaks). Erin scrambled for under 200 and 1 TD, it's not a part of his game per se although he is a good runner when he does it.

Anyhow, point is it's tough comparing a "running QB" with a "passing QB". And it's straight up unfair to do so by only using passing metrics. Lamar Jackson was the MVP last year, he threw for about as many yards as Jacoby Brissett. Nuff said.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 12:58 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am
Watson has been in a bad situation since he got there, with the only exception being Hopkins. What you are forgetting is how bad that offense was before Watson took over, and that was WITH Hopkins and Fuller. And THE MOMENT WATSON TOOK OVER, they got good. They appear to have an ego maniacal head coach. That Hopkins trade was Rick Mirer bad, it's been a long time since I've seen one that bad.
I mean, it's just wrong to say that the situation was bad. They had a ton of weapons on the team. They also were in the playoffs on a perennial basis.

Of course, the offense got better with Watson. Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer were their QB's in 2015 and 2016. Watson is "good". I have not seen much to indicate he's "great". His sack rate is largely his fault, as well.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 1:00 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am

But make sure you're fair when evaluating him. You think Erin is a top 5 QB, limited by the weapons around him right? And that's why he was the 14th rated by QBR last year, with not great passing numbers frankly other than TD/INT ratio. I agree with you.
I don't get it. Rodgers was CARRIED by his run game and D last season. Even when Adams was healthy, it didn't matter much.

Where does he have a bad team?
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 1:37 pm

Richie wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:00 pm
dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am

But make sure you're fair when evaluating him. You think Erin is a top 5 QB, limited by the weapons around him right? And that's why he was the 14th rated by QBR last year, with not great passing numbers frankly other than TD/INT ratio. I agree with you.
I don't get it. Rodgers was CARRIED by his run game and D last season. Even when Adams was healthy, it didn't matter much.

Where does he have a bad team?
I disagree. Everything on that offense revolves around Rodgers and the passing game threat. Teams play the pass against him because they have to and are willing to give up the run. Erin is still a great passer and a great player, I think you're on an island if you don't see that. JMO.

NFL.com has him 6th, seems about right. BTW Rich, they have him BEHIND WATSON, as much as Richie is on an island re: Rodgers you are on an island re: Watson. Here's the link, good read IMO even if a little light on stats/content. Looking at things purely on stats is a fools errand.

https://www.nfl.com/news/qb-index-ranki ... 0001101720
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 2:12 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am
Watson has been in a bad situation since he got there, with the only exception being Hopkins. What you are forgetting is how bad that offense was before Watson took over, and that was WITH Hopkins and Fuller. And THE MOMENT WATSON TOOK OVER, they got good. They appear to have an ego maniacal head coach. That Hopkins trade was Rick Mirer bad, it's been a long time since I've seen one that bad.

But make sure you're fair when evaluating him. You think Erin is a top 5 QB, limited by the weapons around him right? And that's why he was the 14th rated by QBR last year, with not great passing numbers frankly other than TD/INT ratio. I agree with you. So make sure you give that same view on Watson next year. Additionally, I don't know how you do this personally, but you have to include rushing in your evaluation of him as well. It's a major part of his game, you can't just include it as some after thought while pointing to pure passing numbers as the majority of your basis of evaluation. And BTW it's that rushing that drives sacks and time spent holding the ball - you know who gets sacked even more than Watson? Russell Wilson. Is there ANY view that Wilson isn't a Top 3 QB right now? Watson ran for over 400 yards and 7 touchdowns (not QB sneaks). Erin scrambled for under 200 and 1 TD, it's not a part of his game per se although he is a good runner when he does it.

Anyhow, point is it's tough comparing a "running QB" with a "passing QB". And it's straight up unfair to do so by only using passing metrics. Lamar Jackson was the MVP last year, he threw for about as many yards as Jacoby Brissett. Nuff said.

I'm not forgetting anything - I was on record as noting that Brian Hoyer was awful and never being a fan of Brock Osweiler

"And THE MOMENT WATSON TOOK OVER, they got good. "

2016 Texans (year before Watson) were 9-7 and 1st in their Division. They were 8-6 in Brock Osweiler games, 1-1 with Tom Savage

2017 Watson gets hurt mind you but they were only 3-3 in his 7 games (I assume they dont count the game he got injured as his?)

2015 was one of Hoyer's best years as a Pro and that Texans team was also 9-7 (And we can note that Hoyer - not very good outside of that Texans year)

So that - ummm- Moment Watson took over - Untrue.



Sacks - you might want to check your numbers - While it is true that Wilson gets sacked quite a bit (worse OL than Texans mind you) and Wilson is WAY above average in terms of getting sacked

2019 Sacks (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player ... ays-sacked)
Watson - 55
Wilson - 54

(Rodgers 41, Mitch 38 for extra context)

So "you know who gets sacked even more than Watson? Russell Wilson. " Is literally untrue - though I take your point that Wilson takes more sacks than one would think

(and I think Wilson is a touch overrated IMHO - though I'm not going to make some Crazy comment like he's Fringe Top Ten or something:) )


I absolutely will take his running into account and the downgrade in talent (though his WR are still solid mind you - it's just Hopkins is another level). Say what you will about the thought process and money behind Brandon Cooks and R. Cobb but they are light years better than Allan Lazar and Georonimo Allison (OR even James Jones back in the day who had some big TD years despite not being good enough to even be a number 4 WR on several other NFL teams)

I think Rodgers running/maneuverability IS part of his game - though less Stat based than it used to be

I think Defenses are still kept honest by Rodgers in having to account for the run (ABSOLUTELY True for Watson as well - probably more so). I think overall that is ultimately accounted for in terms of Offense (Be it in terms of actual running plays by the QB or using the Defense accounting for the Run to open up Passing Lanes). Though if Watson gets hurt - hhis reliance on this part of the game will likely be one of the reasons

I still think Rodgers is probably the Best in the Game in terms of pocket presence/maneuverability (*). / Smarts in terms of how much time he has in the Pocket(**)

(*) This is often correlated with athleticism (which does make sense as being quick and fast CAN absolutely help) BUT it's more a knack/awareness thing - Tom Brady is actually really good here despite probably running a 5.3 40 at this point whereas RGIII was shockingly terrible at it

** If you as a QB know the rush is coming see the Blitz and get the ball out quick - great call by you - and if know you have your blocking set up correctly and you HAVE that extra time then holding onto the ball longer in that situation isn't as much of a Sin. Of course, I (and probably you too Dplank) do subscribe to the school that it's generally a good idea, all things considered, to get the ball out sooner rather than later



Should be interesting to watch play out though
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 2:15 pm

Richie wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 12:58 pm
dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:17 am
Watson has been in a bad situation since he got there, with the only exception being Hopkins. What you are forgetting is how bad that offense was before Watson took over, and that was WITH Hopkins and Fuller. And THE MOMENT WATSON TOOK OVER, they got good. They appear to have an ego maniacal head coach. That Hopkins trade was Rick Mirer bad, it's been a long time since I've seen one that bad.
I mean, it's just wrong to say that the situation was bad. They had a ton of weapons on the team. They also were in the playoffs on a perennial basis.

Of course, the offense got better with Watson. Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer were their QB's in 2015 and 2016. Watson is "good". I have not seen much to indicate he's "great". His sack rate is largely his fault, as well.
Well now this I agree with
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 3:45 pm

dplank wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:37 pm
Richie wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 1:00 pm


I don't get it. Rodgers was CARRIED by his run game and D last season. Even when Adams was healthy, it didn't matter much.

Where does he have a bad team?
I disagree. Everything on that offense revolves around Rodgers and the passing game threat. Teams play the pass against him because they have to and are willing to give up the run. Erin is still a great passer and a great player, I think you're on an island if you don't see that. JMO.

NFL.com has him 6th, seems about right. BTW Rich, they have him BEHIND WATSON, as much as Richie is on an island re: Rodgers you are on an island re: Watson. Here's the link, good read IMO even if a little light on stats/content. Looking at things purely on stats is a fools errand.

https://www.nfl.com/news/qb-index-ranki ... 0001101720
Not sure how much GB you watched last season. However, saying that the offense revolved around the passing game is just inaccurate. Their passing game never, at any point found consistency last season.

And he should be behind Watson. He's not that good of a QB.

It's amazing how football fans still deny analytics when every other sport is all-in on them. Not to mention, football teams as well.

Rodgers is above average and descending. I don't see how anyone could prove otherwise.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
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Richie
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 3:58 pm

Rodgers in 2019

QBR 50.3 (20th)
4,002 yards (11th)
7.0 Y/A (17th)
11.3 Y/C (13th)
26 TD's (12th)
4.6 TD% (13th)
62.0 CMP% (21st)
95.4 Rating (12th)


Again, all he does at a high level is not throw INT's. Aaron Rodgers is a game manager now. I know as Bears fans we have PTSD at the sight of this guy... but he's just not to be feared, at this point.

You all saw what happened in 2018 when the team around him wasn't playing at a high level. He lost and it was damn ugly.

He goes as they go now. Not the other way around. It's only going to get worse. I want Rodgers in GB.
Year 3 Starting (updated yearly)

Brees (11-4): 65.5% (7th) 7.9 Y/A (7th) 27 TD (7th) 6.8 TD% (4th) 7 INT 1.8 INT% (3rd) 104 Rating (3rd)

Trubisky (8-7): 63.2% (18th) 6.1 Y/A (32nd) 17 TD (27th) 3.3 TD% (30th) 10 INT 1.9 INT% (15th) 83 Rating (28th)
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 10:28 pm

I really, really think you underestimate both supporting cast and INTs

The guy who literally led the league in passing yards is a backup now due to INT.

If a QB like Watson takes 13-15 extra sacks and throws 10 extra INT .....that's a LOT overall

Since we are ranking supporting cast - I'd be curious as to where you think the Packers rank there (no one is getting PTSD from Lazard and Allison)
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 10:29 pm

But you were saying how many Sacks Rodgers took - and somehow Watson doesn't warrant discussion there?
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dplank
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Fri May 15, 2020 11:53 pm

You ding for sacks but never mention his running. Over 400 yards and 7 TDS. And just ignore Russell Wilson’s sacks.

I’ll stick with NFLN and general league / peer consensus that both of these guys are great players. You guys can keep spinning stats that make some point and ignoring those that don’t, have fun.
Chuck Pagano's defensive rankings in 6 years with Indy: 26th, 20th, 11th, 26th, 30th, and 30th.
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 16, 2020 9:13 am

I didn't ignore Wilson's sacks - I both said I think Wilson is somewhat overrated (and that I think Texans, especially in 2019 had the better OL ). and that you saying Wilson took "More" Sacks than Watson was literally untrue (EDIT- See next post)

Look the Texans revamped that line - and Tunsil is a very legit LT (now overpaid but so what I guess?) - And Watson led the league (it was him then Wilson, then a decent gap)

The difference between Watson and Rodgers was like 14 Sacks - a Pretty big number

Sacks - in excess of what they should be - are always going to be part of Wilson's game - For better or worse - He is looking to hold that ball an extra tick - Looking to make a play

Often - BTW - he does - but the extra Sacks are the cost. He is not a timing offense get the ball out on time type of QB


I am wonder how he does on your old Mitch test (who btw when you incorporate Running - Quite good in 2018) - in terms of his numbers coming in Bunches ( Can we call this the Alex Brown Sack corrallary)

The game against ATL last year - almost as well as you can play the position - 426 Yards, 5 TD, just about 85% completion percentage - INSANE game

He also had 4 Games withunder 200 Yards passing and 0 TD

8 Games with either More INT, or the same INT as TD (And that's a majority of his games since he played 15)

If you take the Atlanta game out (re: the Mitch rule) - That's 3,426 Yards, 21 TD, 12 INT

It's not bad mind you - it sure as heck isn't Elite though
RichH55
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Re: Rodgers Trade? (Hypo)

Sat May 16, 2020 9:18 am

DPlank - I need to correct the record

Apparently the site I used for Sacks (which for some reason WAS the first result when I did my google search) Teamrankings.com DIFFERS from both ESPN and ProFootball Reference

Both of which still show a lot of sacks for Watson - but would only put him BEHIND (by 4 sacks) Wilson

So you were literally CORRECT in that assertion. (I have no idea where Team Rankings got its data - but that is NOT a hill I'm dying on)

Doesn't really change almost any of my thought process - or Watson's Game Logs etc.

But I absolutely HAVE to post the change - bad data is bad data


Also - for the thread- it means Rodgers took less Sacks then posted as well - he was 14th in the League in Sacks taken

Which is pretty good

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