Right now, there is only 1 player that I wouldn't trade down if he was there at 8, and that is Chubb. I like guys like James and Fitzpatrick, but not enough to take them at 8 while we have the guys we do in the secondary and not at the expense of getting more picks.
Nelson is a great prospect, but I don't like him that much more than a few of the other guard prospects, that I have to take him at 8. It just goes against my own bias for draft strategy to take premier positions in premier draft slots. Also, there have been too many "can't miss" O linemen to come out 'recently' only to disappoint if not bust. (Fisher, Albert, Gallery, Jake Long, Jason Smith, Luke Joekel, Greg Robinson.
Tremain Edmunds is a great athlete, but several people question to some degree whether that will translate into being a great football player. Right now (5 weeks away), it's as likely that he'd be there at say 15 as he would be at 8. Because Draft history is chocked full of great athletes who don't go onto being great in the NFL.
The main reason I want more picks, is that our "window" is creaking open. This year IMO is crucial for laying a foundation that will carry us into a playoff run in 2019 and beyond, (if we don't sneak into that run this year).
The draft is ultimately a dart board, and the more chances you get to hit triple 20 in the early stages just sets you up with better odds of hitting bullseye before your opponents catches up to you.
There are several prospects available in the middle of the 1st that could come in and impact the team right away, and I'd love to get a 3rd round pick or another 2nd, along with whatever else can be had from a trade down.
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
The Trade Down Option
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Atkins&Rebel
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I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
In a trade down scenario, I'd prefer this:Atkins&Rebel wrote:Right now, there is only 1 player that I wouldn't trade down if he was there at 8, and that is Chubb. I like guys like James and Fitzpatrick, but not enough to take them at 8 while we have the guys we do in the secondary and not at the expense of getting more picks.
Nelson is a great prospect, but I don't like him that much more than a few of the other guard prospects, that I have to take him at 8. It just goes against my own bias for draft strategy to take premier positions in premier draft slots. Also, there have been too many "can't miss" O linemen to come out 'recently' only to disappoint if not bust. (Fisher, Albert, Gallery, Jake Long, Jason Smith, Luke Joekel, Greg Robinson.
Tremain Edmunds is a great athlete, but several people question to some degree whether that will translate into being a great football player. Right now (5 weeks away), it's as likely that he'd be there at say 15 as he would be at 8. Because Draft history is chocked full of great athletes who don't go onto being great in the NFL.
The main reason I want more picks, is that our "window" is creaking open. This year IMO is crucial for laying a foundation that will carry us into a playoff run in 2019 and beyond, (if we don't sneak into that run this year).
The draft is ultimately a dart board, and the more chances you get to hit triple 20 in the early stages just sets you up with better odds of hitting bullseye before your opponents catches up to you.
There are several prospects available in the middle of the 1st that could come in and impact the team right away, and I'd love to get a 3rd round pick or another 2nd, along with whatever else can be had from a trade down.
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
1st: Landry/Davenport EDGE
2nd: Taven Bryan DL
2nd: Daniels OG
Still covers the needs but Key is such a big question mark and with the window you are talking about, he just wouldn't be a prudent pick at that time and place.
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Mikefive
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My name your top 8 has <trade down> as my first choice. But this draft, with 4 QBs that may all go ahead of us along with...
...a once in a long time RB which matches up against our strongest player on offense for 2 years,
...a clearly strong 4-3 DE who isn't a perfect fit at 3-4 OLB,
...a DB when all of ours are under contract for multi-years,
...even the popular choice Edmunds is commonly projected as NOT an edge guy, which we need.
The only top 8 value choice by pundits that meets a need and should be a pretty sure thing is Nelson. And then as you suggest, normally OGs don't offer top 10 value in the eyes of many. All of the guys I mentioned, except perhaps Nelson and Edmunds are guys who teams would likely trade up for. And if that didn't happen, I would be satisfied with either of those 2 at 8. But it just seems like the odds of us moving down, finding better fits for our needs and picking up another high pick need filler makes sense to me here.
Not that I would mind having Nelson.
...a once in a long time RB which matches up against our strongest player on offense for 2 years,
...a clearly strong 4-3 DE who isn't a perfect fit at 3-4 OLB,
...a DB when all of ours are under contract for multi-years,
...even the popular choice Edmunds is commonly projected as NOT an edge guy, which we need.
The only top 8 value choice by pundits that meets a need and should be a pretty sure thing is Nelson. And then as you suggest, normally OGs don't offer top 10 value in the eyes of many. All of the guys I mentioned, except perhaps Nelson and Edmunds are guys who teams would likely trade up for. And if that didn't happen, I would be satisfied with either of those 2 at 8. But it just seems like the odds of us moving down, finding better fits for our needs and picking up another high pick need filler makes sense to me here.
Not that I would mind having Nelson.
Mikefive's theory: The only time you KNOW that a sports team player, coach or management member is being 100% honest is when they're NOT reciting "the company line".
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Mikefive
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Like your choices better, although Payne looks like a stud and has the right name.Hematite wrote:In a trade down scenario, I'd prefer this:Atkins&Rebel wrote:Right now, there is only 1 player that I wouldn't trade down if he was there at 8, and that is Chubb. I like guys like James and Fitzpatrick, but not enough to take them at 8 while we have the guys we do in the secondary and not at the expense of getting more picks.
Nelson is a great prospect, but I don't like him that much more than a few of the other guard prospects, that I have to take him at 8. It just goes against my own bias for draft strategy to take premier positions in premier draft slots. Also, there have been too many "can't miss" O linemen to come out 'recently' only to disappoint if not bust. (Fisher, Albert, Gallery, Jake Long, Jason Smith, Luke Joekel, Greg Robinson.
Tremain Edmunds is a great athlete, but several people question to some degree whether that will translate into being a great football player. Right now (5 weeks away), it's as likely that he'd be there at say 15 as he would be at 8. Because Draft history is chocked full of great athletes who don't go onto being great in the NFL.
The main reason I want more picks, is that our "window" is creaking open. This year IMO is crucial for laying a foundation that will carry us into a playoff run in 2019 and beyond, (if we don't sneak into that run this year).
The draft is ultimately a dart board, and the more chances you get to hit triple 20 in the early stages just sets you up with better odds of hitting bullseye before your opponents catches up to you.
There are several prospects available in the middle of the 1st that could come in and impact the team right away, and I'd love to get a 3rd round pick or another 2nd, along with whatever else can be had from a trade down.
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
1st: Landry/Davenport EDGE
2nd: Taven Bryan DL
2nd: Daniels OG
Still covers the needs but Key is such a big question mark and with the window you are talking about, he just wouldn't be a prudent pick at that time and place.
Mikefive's theory: The only time you KNOW that a sports team player, coach or management member is being 100% honest is when they're NOT reciting "the company line".
Go back to leather helmets, NFL.
Go back to leather helmets, NFL.
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Atkins&Rebel
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The main reason I didn't use Landry or Davenport in my example is my fear that we'd lose out on them by trading back. If one of those guys is still there, I do like both. But I'm leaning towards drafting a guy that can blow it up on the D line to help give our LB's and edge rushers some more room.Hematite wrote:In a trade down scenario, I'd prefer this:Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
1st: Landry/Davenport EDGE
2nd: Taven Bryan DL
2nd: Daniels OG
Still covers the needs but Key is such a big question mark and with the window you are talking about, he just wouldn't be a prudent pick at that time and place.
I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
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cblaz11
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Great post, but I wouldn't touch Arden Key at all. The guy is undraftable based on his character concerns, his play, his combine performance, and his overall personality.Atkins&Rebel wrote:Right now, there is only 1 player that I wouldn't trade down if he was there at 8, and that is Chubb. I like guys like James and Fitzpatrick, but not enough to take them at 8 while we have the guys we do in the secondary and not at the expense of getting more picks.
Nelson is a great prospect, but I don't like him that much more than a few of the other guard prospects, that I have to take him at 8. It just goes against my own bias for draft strategy to take premier positions in premier draft slots. Also, there have been too many "can't miss" O linemen to come out 'recently' only to disappoint if not bust. (Fisher, Albert, Gallery, Jake Long, Jason Smith, Luke Joekel, Greg Robinson.
Tremain Edmunds is a great athlete, but several people question to some degree whether that will translate into being a great football player. Right now (5 weeks away), it's as likely that he'd be there at say 15 as he would be at 8. Because Draft history is chocked full of great athletes who don't go onto being great in the NFL.
The main reason I want more picks, is that our "window" is creaking open. This year IMO is crucial for laying a foundation that will carry us into a playoff run in 2019 and beyond, (if we don't sneak into that run this year).
The draft is ultimately a dart board, and the more chances you get to hit triple 20 in the early stages just sets you up with better odds of hitting bullseye before your opponents catches up to you.
There are several prospects available in the middle of the 1st that could come in and impact the team right away, and I'd love to get a 3rd round pick or another 2nd, along with whatever else can be had from a trade down.
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
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Atkins&Rebel
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What are his concerns...specifically? Because I didn't find anything specific other than he checked into a rehab voluntarily and left the team. And if he was a little out of shape at the combine because he was in a rehab, I can forgive that if he puts on a decent pro day. We will know if teams liked him in his interviews or not a little later...cblaz11 wrote:Great post, but I wouldn't touch Arden Key at all. The guy is undraftable based on his character concerns, his play, his combine performance, and his overall personality.Atkins&Rebel wrote:Right now, there is only 1 player that I wouldn't trade down if he was there at 8, and that is Chubb. I like guys like James and Fitzpatrick, but not enough to take them at 8 while we have the guys we do in the secondary and not at the expense of getting more picks.
Nelson is a great prospect, but I don't like him that much more than a few of the other guard prospects, that I have to take him at 8. It just goes against my own bias for draft strategy to take premier positions in premier draft slots. Also, there have been too many "can't miss" O linemen to come out 'recently' only to disappoint if not bust. (Fisher, Albert, Gallery, Jake Long, Jason Smith, Luke Joekel, Greg Robinson.
Tremain Edmunds is a great athlete, but several people question to some degree whether that will translate into being a great football player. Right now (5 weeks away), it's as likely that he'd be there at say 15 as he would be at 8. Because Draft history is chocked full of great athletes who don't go onto being great in the NFL.
The main reason I want more picks, is that our "window" is creaking open. This year IMO is crucial for laying a foundation that will carry us into a playoff run in 2019 and beyond, (if we don't sneak into that run this year).
The draft is ultimately a dart board, and the more chances you get to hit triple 20 in the early stages just sets you up with better odds of hitting bullseye before your opponents catches up to you.
There are several prospects available in the middle of the 1st that could come in and impact the team right away, and I'd love to get a 3rd round pick or another 2nd, along with whatever else can be had from a trade down.
I could list out several possibilities, but one scenario I like in a trade back get a 2nd:
1st: DaRon Payne DT
2nd: James Daniels OC
2nd: Arden Key (Key has questions...possibly got hooked on pain killers or has mental illness he's deal with?)
-Those 3 picks cover many holes on the team and could all be impact players.
(Oh and feel free to use that dart analogy on your next podcast...I'm fairly proud of coming up with that)
I will kill you if you cut me at the knees. You will drink with me when invited and stay til I say so. We only listen to American Music. I make men nervous with just my presence. I expect an apology if you hold. I throw linemen at QB's. Believe the Lore!
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EricTighe
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The only two players in this draft that have no questions about is Payne and Nelson.
Payne is considered the best run stuffer in the draft, Lacks true pass rush moves. Most DT's don't have a bunch of pass rush moves anyway. Reggie White had two moves and he did just fine with them.
Nelson they say has no flaws. Compared to Joe Thomas when he came out. Different positions is all. No other Guard in the draft can you say that about.
As far as edge rushers go there is some potential out there. The fact that not one Edge rusher in this draft would have gone before any of the first round guys last year says something. They all have good points and they have there weaknesses. Weak class that is getting boost due to glamour position.
2nd rounders- Hercules= non-stop motor that played DT.
Arden Key- Very similar draft profile as Aldon Smith
Nwuso, Landry, Carter, and a few others.
Like I said weak class that has boom or bust all over it. Most likely more busts than booms.
Payne is considered the best run stuffer in the draft, Lacks true pass rush moves. Most DT's don't have a bunch of pass rush moves anyway. Reggie White had two moves and he did just fine with them.
Nelson they say has no flaws. Compared to Joe Thomas when he came out. Different positions is all. No other Guard in the draft can you say that about.
As far as edge rushers go there is some potential out there. The fact that not one Edge rusher in this draft would have gone before any of the first round guys last year says something. They all have good points and they have there weaknesses. Weak class that is getting boost due to glamour position.
2nd rounders- Hercules= non-stop motor that played DT.
Arden Key- Very similar draft profile as Aldon Smith
Nwuso, Landry, Carter, and a few others.
Like I said weak class that has boom or bust all over it. Most likely more busts than booms.