So with all the Nelson talk i wanted to quantify the positional value and draft success rate of OG prospects. This has nothing to do with him prospect.
I don't have time required to really break it down, plus it's hard to quantify anything without searching the last 10 - 20 years on draft data from every position. Then you have to test criteria. I have been looking in to pro football references approximate value metric. It was mentioned in another thread and I like it. It should also be known that Walter football also ran a thing saying about 50% of first rounds are successful.
An All pro guard scores 13-17. Yanda has the 17. A pro bowl guard also scores above a 12. (This is generally but not exact)
Kyle Long' s best year was an 11. For context. I graded an average approximate value for the picks career and less then 5 points is below average 5-8 average and over 8 above average.
Guards first Round
17% above average
43% average at best
39% below average
Guards 2nd Round
13% above average
62% average
25% below average
Guards 3 Round
6% Above Average
33% Average
66% Below Average
Looking at the guards it seemed the best positional value was likely the 2nd round.
OG round success rate
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You reversed the order from 1st (above to below) to 2nd and 3rd (below to above). Please make the three consistent. Thanks.
- Atkins&Rebel
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Success rates are useful for overall expectations through the history of the draft, but each year is unique with it's own talent and positional tendencies per team.
Teams need a good plan and a little luck to get find success.
Teams need a good plan and a little luck to get find success.
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- mmmc_35
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Well I would like to break it down a bit better and obviously each player is independent. I find it interesting. Several guys where can not miss first round guards who never did anything.
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This is great - thanks for sharing! Has anyone seen any data on tackles converting to guard for the nfl vs college guards? I wonder if we over value the guys who played LT in college and that results in some first round failures?
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