What high-end player do you just not get?

Moriarty · Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:05 pm

Someone in at least the top 100, where you just don't understand how highly ranked they are at all?

Moriarty · Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:22 pm

Mine is Baker Mayfield

On almost all boards at a top 10. I've even seen him as the top rated player in the draft a few times.
I get that he has good college numbers and some (but not all) really good intangibles.
But he's 6'0 (fine, 6005), and there's no getting around that. Lots of college QBs have great numbers and don't have the physical qualities for the next level. On the flip side, how many do make it big time as pros? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember the last one being 17 years ago (Brees)...and he wasn't taken until R2.
If I'm a QB-starved team with the right kind of system, sure I could go for him in R2, too. But top 5-10? No thanks.

Dishonorable mention to combine superflop Orlando Brown.
Still see him in top 100 almost everywhere, even after his embarrassing disaster (and minimally better Pro Day).
He doesn't get the top spot, because I refuse to even believe that teams still consider him a top 100 player.

IotaNet · Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:43 pm

Moriarty wrote:Mine is Baker Mayfield

On almost all boards at a top 10. I've even seen him as the top rated player in the draft a few times.
I get that he has good college numbers and some (but not all) really good intangibles.
But he's 6'0 (fine, 6005), and there's no getting around that. Lots of college QBs have great numbers and don't have the physical qualities for the next level. On the flip side, how many do make it big time as pros? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember the last one being 17 years ago (Brees)...and he wasn't taken until R2.
If I'm a QB-starved team with the right kind of system, sure I could go for him in R2, too. But top 5-10? No thanks.

What about Russell Wilson? I know he went late but in hindsight, many teams would have taken him much, much earlier.

Moriarty · Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:42 pm

IotaNet wrote:
Moriarty wrote:Mine is Baker Mayfield

On almost all boards at a top 10. I've even seen him as the top rated player in the draft a few times.
I get that he has good college numbers and some (but not all) really good intangibles.
But he's 6'0 (fine, 6005), and there's no getting around that. Lots of college QBs have great numbers and don't have the physical qualities for the next level. On the flip side, how many do make it big time as pros? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember the last one being 17 years ago (Brees)...and he wasn't taken until R2.
If I'm a QB-starved team with the right kind of system, sure I could go for him in R2, too. But top 5-10? No thanks.
What about Russell Wilson? I know he went late but in hindsight, many teams would have taken him much, much earlier.

Forgot him - and way smaller than I remembered, too. So good spot on bumping it up to 2 successes in 17 yrs.

The hindsight value, though, is only minimally helpful in projecting a 2018 prospect. Nobody has hindsight insight into what they will become. There's still a lot more short college heroes that went nowhere. And that's why neither Brees nor Wilson commanded a top 10 pick. Bad odds.

Bears Whiskey Nut · Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:17 am

Mine is Baker Mayfield as well. I don't see it. I don't think he will be Johnny Manziel bust level, but he's certainly not the next Drew Brees.

southdakbearfan · Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:24 am

This year for me it's Josh Allen. I just don't get drafting inaccurate QB's that high because they have a cannon. Rarely does this ever work out.

Yes you need to be able to make certain throws, which is kind of a threshold you probably have to have for arm strength but accuracy should be way higher when drafting these guys IMO.

mmmc_35 · Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:01 am

My opinion of Mayfield wasn't a dBag he would be a consensus number one without a doubt. He is the Best QB in the draft minus being a dick.

thunderspirit · Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:06 am

I totally get Mayfield (though the track record of Big 12 QBs gives me pause), but I agree on Allen.

I also don't really get Da'Ron Payne. He's athletic and all, but if he played every game like it was Clemson and Georgia in the bowl playoffs, I'd be a lot more interested. He did not.

Mikefive · Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:31 am

southdakbearfan wrote:This year for me it's Josh Allen. I just don't get drafting inaccurate QB's that high because they have a cannon. Rarely does this ever work out.

Yes you need to be able to make certain throws, which is kind of a threshold you probably have to have for arm strength but accuracy should be way higher when drafting these guys IMO.

Kyle Boller

crueltyabc · Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:24 am

Hurst is the guy that puzzles me. He’s ranked in the top ten multiple places and I just don’t see tape of him as an impact player. His production seems to come on broken plays and never never when he has to take on guard and center.

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Hiphopopotamos · Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:07 pm

Minkah Fitzpatrick

mmmc_35 · Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:34 pm

Hiphopopotamos wrote:Minkah Fitzpatrick

I agree with this one. I am probably wrong. I think people want him to be Jaken Ramsey or tyrann mathieu when he isn't. Daneail Manning is closer. I think Fitzpatrick will be good, but not as much as some.

I feel Similar about Ward. I think his numbers jumped him up a lot, but Jackson on tape is better.

DaSuperfan · Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:42 am

I'm not too high on Ward. He doesn't make a lot of plays on the ball and he's smaller. Sure, he's fast - but I am higher on Jackson or Oliver at CB.

The Marshall Plan · Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:21 am

Moriarty wrote:Someone in at least the top 100, where you just don't understand how highly ranked they are at all?

Quentin Nelson because he's a guard. I could see it if he was a left tackle, but a guard?

Z Bear · Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:20 pm

Taven Bryan - The guy did absolutely nothing at Florida. Under achievers that have a good combine scream bust to me.

mmmc_35 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:56 pm

I get what your saying about him. I blame some of that on the scheme in Miami. You can tell a he could get up field but wasn't. When designed to he showed he could.

alexwilkins · Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:07 pm

Josh Allen. He wasn’t even the best QB in the Mountain West. Let alone the country.

Hiphopopotamos · Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:53 pm

alexwilkins wrote:Josh Allen. He wasn’t even the best QB in the Mountain West. Let alone the country.

Yep. Saw a blurb on twitter that Josh Allen never completed over 60% in high school, JUCO, or at Wyoming - but people think he’ll be able to do it in the NFL?

southdakbearfan · Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Hiphopopotamos wrote:
alexwilkins wrote:Josh Allen. He wasn’t even the best QB in the Mountain West. Let alone the country.
Yep. Saw a blurb on twitter that Josh Allen never completed over 60% in high school, JUCO, or at Wyoming - but people think he’ll be able to do it in the NFL?

Exactly, 60% is kind of a benchmark for me. Now there is a lot of other things as well, but being well below that mark is a huge red flag, especially for a player that isn't going to run around a lot for make up yardage.

In the mountain west, on a team ranked 9th in PPG on defense he failed to put up multiple TD's in over 60% of their games. Plus he has been flat out terrible against teams with winning records and they weren't playing a lot of powerhouse teams as well.

With today's NFL, moving the chains, quick WC and RPO offenses and their emphasis on accuracy over a cannon he wouldn't be a choice for me in the first round.

G08 · Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:27 am

Hiphopopotamos wrote:
alexwilkins wrote:Josh Allen. He wasn’t even the best QB in the Mountain West. Let alone the country.
Yep. Saw a blurb on twitter that Josh Allen never completed over 60% in high school, JUCO, or at Wyoming - but people think he’ll be able to do it in the NFL?

Mechanics are important, as are WRs who can actually catch the ball.

But yeah... it's still a concern.

IotaNet · Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:09 pm

alexwilkins wrote:Josh Allen. He wasn’t even the best QB in the Mountain West. Let alone the country.

Agreed. He reminds me of Jake Locker or Blake Bortles. Big strong guy with a rocket arm who "looks the part" of an NFL quarterback.

Not impressed.

Mikefive · Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:17 am

For me, it's Roquan Smith in the top 10.

Don't get me wrong, he's a good player. But he's a smaller LB who makes hay in space. When I watched his tape though, he can't shed a block to save his life. And yet some people project him as an inside guy. I don't get that at all. To me, he's a 4-3 WLB who can play coverage and run like hell and tackle people. Perfect fit for that role. But serviceable LBs who can run around in space are not that difficult to find. It's kinda like RBs these days. Again, I'm not saying Smith won't be a good NFL player. But he does have a particular weakness, lacks prototypical size, is at a low priority position and I don't know that he fits well in a 3-4.