2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

[Rusty Trombagent]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nf ... um=twitter

Bears meeting with Chubb.

WOOOOOOO

[Mikefive]

Mostly we share opinions about who the Bears SHOULD draft. But that's NOT the question here, which is to get into the mind of Ryan Pace and state what he actually WILL do.

Let's play this like a wager--even though it isn't. Every participant has an imaginary $100 wagered on the outcome, the total of which will be divided up by all correct guessers. Note that making a less popular choice can result in a much bigger bounty.

Make your guess and argue why you think that's who Pace will take. And as always, you can change your answer up until the draft begins.

And just so you know, if you argue in this thread who Pace SHOULD select, then you will deservedly be publicly flogged for not following directions. Besides, there are other places to discuss that.

[wab]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

[Mikefive]

My first shot at this--which I'm still contemplating--is a rather obvious choice.

Ryan Pace will select Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech

Here's why:
1. Championship teams have to have a pass rush. And right now, Pace has to know that what we have is insufficient. Further, Lynch is on a 1-year prove it deal. He'll see that this guy isn't necessarily the future and he'll have to have another answer in the mix.
2. Pace is one of those guys who loves to draft traits over production numbers, particularly those traits that can't be coached. (See Floyd, Leonard.)
3. While Pace did spend a lot of $$$ on defense with the 2 CB signings, he didn't really help our defense get BETTER, which he did on offense. He knows after the losses of Unrein, McPhee, Young and Houston that he needs to give Fangio something to get excited about.
4. While Pace has shown that he can do the unexpected with the Trubisky trade up, he also has behaved more conventionally with his choice of Leonard Floyd that many guessed. So it's understandable if he goes with a popular option.

[G08]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

[Mikefive]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

Of course there are too many variables to predict! But that's why you (and I say that collectively) are a master mind reader and market prognosticator to put your imaginary dollars where your message board mouth is. Hell, you got recorded talking Bears for an hour in your underwear (I hope) this past weekend. You must have unique skills... or knowledge... or something.

[Hematite]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

[G08]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

I could very well see that as the scenario. If Edmunds, Davenport, and Landry are there and Pace is hell-bent on getting an EDGE, he should trade down to 11 or 12.

[wab]

Everyone is acting like there's only like 3-4 pass rushers in this draft. Edmunds is my favorite, but he's a big time projection. I waver on him because he's so similar to Floyd and he likely wouldn't play right away.

I'm on record saying that when it comes to top 10 picks, I'm against drafting part time players. You can get a part time pass rusher in the 4th.

[Hematite]

If....

Chubb is available, Pace drafts him above all.

If Chubb is gone, and Nelson is available, Pace drafts him above all else.

If neither options are available at 8, Pace trades down.

I could very well see that as the scenario. If Edmunds, Davenport, and Landry are there and Pace is hell-bent on getting an EDGE, he should trade down to 11 or 12.

I'm of the thinking that 4 QB's go before us. Somebody is gonna fall that shouldn't. If by chance 1 or more of the Qb's are still on the board at 8, we will have offers pouring in for a trade up.

In my view, we are in a very good spot.

[wab]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

If you look at Fangio's history he prefers one "athlete" at LB, and one "thumper" opposite him. For a long time he had Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Then Lynch and Skuta.

With the Bears he's had Young/McClellin/Jones/Floyd as the "athletes" and McPhee/Houston/Acho as the "thumpers"

Now he's got Floyd/Lynch as his athletic guys and really only Acho as the thumper.

[G08]

There are way to many unknown variables to say definitively who the Bears will draft. It all depends on who is on the briars at 8.

If Nelson is on the board the Bears will take him.

That's how I feel as well... I think Pace likes Nelson at OG more than he likes Edmunds/Davenport at OLB; and I think he likes a Lorenzo-Carter-type at OLB more than he likes a James Daniels at OC/OG.

If you look at Fangio's history he prefers one "athlete" at LB, and one "thumper" opposite him. For a long time he had Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Then Lynch and Skuta.

With the Bears he's had Young/McClellin/Jones/Floyd as the "athletes" and McPhee/Houston/Acho as the "thumpers"

Now he's got Floyd/Lynch as his athletic guys and really only Acho as the thumper.

Who's the round 2 thumper... Sam Hubbard?

[DaSuperfan]

I'm going to predict that Chubb falls past the Browns at 4 and triggers Pace to trade up with the Broncos at 5 to take Bradley Chubb ahead of the Colts at 6. One thing we've seen from Pace in the past 3 drafts, is he's not afraid of getting his guy. Bears need a pass rusher and Chubb is the best one in this class. I think he makes a bold move even if it requires sending some draft capital this year and next year. While I wouldn't agree with doing that, it's just my gut feeling.

[cblaz11]

Harold Landry in the 1st, Billy Price in the 2nd.

[wab]

One of the things I've noticed about Pace is that if he loads up on a position in FA, he doesn't attack that position in the draft. He's done it with LB in the past (McPhee, Acho, Freeman, and Trevathan) and last year it was corner and WR (even though WR turned out to be a weakness). With the positions he largely ignores - like safety a couple years ago, he attacks that position in the draft.

This year he attacked WR and corner again (even though it was correcting his WR mistakes from last year and bringing back Fuller and the guys he signed at CB last year). So far he's largely ignored the defensive line, offensive line, and LB - these are the positions I expect him to attack in the draft. And he loves to double up on picks too...so I could see six of the Bears seven picks being a DE and DT, an OG and OT, and an OLB and ILB.

[G08]

One of the things I've noticed about Pace is that if he loads up on a position in FA, he doesn't attack that position in the draft. He's done it with LB in the past (McPhee, Acho, Freeman, and Trevathan) and last year it was corner and WR (even though WR turned out to be a weakness). With the positions he largely ignores - like safety a couple years ago, he attacks that position in the draft.

This year he attacked WR and corner again (even though it was correcting his WR mistakes from last year and bringing back Fuller and the guys he signed at CB last year). So far he's largely ignored the defensive line, offensive line, and LB - these are the positions I expect him to attack in the draft. And he loves to double up on picks too...so I could see six of the Bears seven picks being a DE and DT, an OG and OT, and an OLB and ILB.

I can definitely see that... at minimum I'm expecting an OG, swing Tackle, EDGE, ILB, and 5T.

I'd love to find a way to get back into the middle of round 3 and draft Josey Jewell.

[wab]

I don't think Jewell is worth a 3rd round pick.


(homer)

[G08]

[SC Bear]

If Nelson is there he is the pick
If Nelson is gone Smith is the pick

I don't think he takes Edmomds. He is a project and may turn out to be a HOF player. However, based on where we are now we need production now.

[G08]

If Nelson is there he is the pick
If Nelson is gone Smith is the pick

I don't think he takes Edmomds. He is a project and may turn out to be a HOF player. However, based on where we are now we need production now.

Agreed about Nelson, but if he's not there I can see a legitimate argument being made for Edmunds, Davenport, and Fitzpatrick at minimum.

[wab]

Smith isn't a pass rusher and the Bears need a pass rusher more than another inside linebacker.

[EricTighe]

We had 42 sacks as a team last year.
Returning are
Hicks 8.5
Floyd 4.5
Acho 3
Trevathan 2
Kwiatkoski 2
Robertson-Harris 2
Goldman 1.5
Bullard 1
Jones 1

Thats 25.5 sacks returning.

Not to bad since only three played in every game.

[G08]

We had 42 sacks as a team last year.
Returning are
Hicks 8.5
Floyd 4.5
Acho 3
Trevathan 2
Kwiatkoski 2
Robertson-Harris 2
Goldman 1.5
Bullard 1
Jones 1

Thats 25.5 sacks returning.

Not to bad since only three played in every game.

I hear ya, but we NEED more production out of our EDGE rushers. Badly. It will make our defense that much better and give Fangio more options to play around with coverages on the back-end.

[EricTighe]

This is a draft philosophy that gets GM's fired. In the first round always take the best player on the board reguardless of position or need. Now if you have two guys even then ya take the need.

But other then Chubb, who I have seen it may take a year or two before you see the returns every one of the Edge rushers is a reach. Since Key is supposedly dropping(not sure why?) then reach in the later rounds. Never reach in the first. History tells us that it usually doesn't work out to well. This is a historical fact not some made up pipe dream to prove my point.

[G08]

This is a draft philosophy that gets GM's fired. In the first round always take the best player on the board reguardless of position or need. Now if you have two guys even then ya take the need.

But other then Chubb, who I have seen it may take a year or two before you see the returns every one of the Edge rushers is a reach. Since Key is supposedly dropping(not sure why?) then reach in the later rounds. Never reach in the first. History tells us that it usually doesn't work out to well. This is a historical fact not some made up pipe dream to prove my point.

Character for Key. I'd be surprised if he was even on Pace's board.

[EricTighe]

That's what I mean what character flaw. Because he checked himself into rehab before even being caught? That actually sounds like a good character to me.

[thunderspirit]

Mostly we share opinions about who the Bears SHOULD draft. But that's NOT the question here, which is to get into the mind of Ryan Pace and state what he actually WILL do.

QB is off the table.
The holes that Pace patched with multiple year deals in free agency — WR/TE and CB — are out.

That leaves OL (specifically G, but possibly T too) — of whom the only player who fits at the top of the draft is Quenton Nelson — ILB (specifically the spot that was manned effectively by Jerrell Freeman for about a dozen games) — think Patrick Willis or Navorro Bowman-level athletes — and edge rusher (healthy Pernell McPhee version) — who Vic Fangio wants to be long-limbed as well as athletic (which means no Harold Landry).

If Chubb is available at #8 (he shouldn't be), he is the choice.
If Chubb is gone but Nelson is available (he shouldn't be either), he is the choice.
If both are gone, I think the Bears would prefer to land their Patrick Willis. Athletically that's Tremaine Edmunds; instinct-wise it's Roquan Smith. Since they can't fuse the two, I think it's neither. I think they take Marcus Davenport and hope he's their version of Aldon Smith (on-field only).

[G08]

If Chubb is available at #8 (he shouldn't be), he is the choice.
If Chubb is gone but Nelson is available (he shouldn't be either), he is the choice.
If both are gone, I think the Bears would prefer to land their Patrick Willis. Athletically that's Tremaine Edmunds; instinct-wise it's Roquan Smith. Since they can't fuse the two, I think it's neither. I think they take Marcus Davenport and hope he's their version of Aldon Smith (on-field only).

I'm starting to lean this way as well. Seems like a good kid, driven, humble, and it really seems like he's only now starting to figure out just how good of a football player he can be. Sky's the limit for him if he lands with good coaching and takes to it.

[Adipost]

We had 42 sacks as a team last year.
Returning are
Hicks 8.5
Floyd 4.5
Acho 3
Trevathan 2
Kwiatkoski 2
Robertson-Harris 2
Goldman 1.5
Bullard 1
Jones 1

Thats 25.5 sacks returning.

Not to bad since only three played in every game.

I hear ya, but we NEED more production out of our EDGE rushers. Badly. It will make our defense that much better and give Fangio more options to play around with coverages on the back-end.

Yep, more pressures = more turnovers

I remember during a bears telecast, Tony Rome really highlighted the idea that pressures could be more important than sacks. That slight adjustment by QB’s when feeling pressure is what causes most turnovers.

[The Marshall Plan]

This is a draft philosophy that gets GM's fired. In the first round always take the best player on the board reguardless of position or need. Now if you have two guys even then ya take the need.

But other then Chubb, who I have seen it may take a year or two before you see the returns every one of the Edge rushers is a reach. Since Key is supposedly dropping(not sure why?) then reach in the later rounds. Never reach in the first. History tells us that it usually doesn't work out to well. This is a historical fact not some made up pipe dream to prove my point.

Exactly. What is the point of taking the 3rd best linebacker even though you need one when the best OL, DL, WR, CB, etc is sitting right there?