2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

College football and the NFL Draft

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mmmc_35
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:44 pm

No he isn't. Bench press and play strength are very different. I am not hammering him, he could be very good. He needs to dread lift and box squat like a mother trucker and stay healthy.
Hiphopopotamos
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:46 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:
wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
Daniels is stronger than Grasu.

Miller was WR2 on many draft boards.

But continue with your role.
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The Marshall Plan
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:57 pm

wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Agreed. Smith and Daniels speak for themselves. The more I watch of Miller the more I agree with your assessment.
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mmmc_35
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:10 pm

Hiphopopotamos wrote:
mmmc_35 wrote:
wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
Daniels is stronger than Grasu.

Miller was WR2 on many draft boards.

But continue with your role.
Yes on many boards he was. On many he was a third. If you watch him you would probably put him in a 2/3rd category. I went with the latter.

Daniels does hold the point better then Grasu but still needs to get better. At Center I believe he will be really good.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:33 pm

I know this is way too late, but I just read an incredibly interesting study performed by highly respected analytics professor Case Massey (U of C, Yale, Harvard) and Nobel prize winning economist Richard Thaler on the NFL draft trade value chart and NFL draft trades in general.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgment and decision making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strong economic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research

Basically, trading up in the draft or trading away draft picks was proven to be incredibly irrational behavior. Trading down is almost always the right move, no matter what the trade value charts add up to.
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mmmc_35
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:37 pm

I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:42 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
I find it really interesting that player surplus values actually go up the further you go down in the 1st round. The #32 pick is more valuable than the #1 pick.
BR0D1E86
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:41 pm

Explains why there was no trade. Smith was the Bears’ guy...

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/991 ... 06752?s=20
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:47 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:Explains why there was no trade. Smith was the Bears’ guy...

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/991 ... 06752?s=20
Their guy could have been Chubb or Nelson. He said he made those calls as he was negotiating with Denver. Pace was inquiring aboot trading up as well.
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thunderspirit
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:55 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
Yeah, I agree that the premise makes sense (i.e., more chances are almost always better), but even with numerical grades the evaluation of talent is inexact, and practically speaking playmakers win games, and playmaking is hard to quantify.
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