R2, P51: Anthony Miller, WR - Memphis

College football and the NFL Draft

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Adipost
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mmmc_35 wrote:PFF has him at 95 out of 134 in drop rate. (my quick counting maybe off a few numbers). Bottom quarter of those drafted. It's not a hands problem, from what I have seen it's concentration.
The worry with me comes in the fact that Allen Robinson had the same concentration drop problem in 2016.
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An analyst opined that it was because Miller often times was too worried about YAC before he even secured the catch. Still... maddening to see.
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Until he starts dropping them with the bears, he will get the benefit of the doubt with me.
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Adipost wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:
Adipost wrote:
G08 wrote:
Adipost wrote:
cblaz11 wrote:Miller reminds me so much of Jarvis Landry..with better deep play ability.
I watched the UCF, UCLA, and Iowa state games. It’s scary how similar he looks to Landry. The quick cuts out of his routes, the huge hands, the catch radius and body positioning to catch inaccurate passes, the sideline screen passes turned fearlessly into the middle of the field, the always falling forward for extra yards as he’s being tackled, the massive chip on his shoulder, the fire he shows on the field that wears down the defense.
I'm starting to dig into each of these prospects today and I'm going to say that these drops are starting to piss me off.
Apparently 21 drops in the past 2 seasons.

On 191 catches.
So a 10% drop rate. I’m not sure how bad that is or if it’s even bad. :wheelchair:
Nope, we need to know the targets or better catchable balls. If his catch % is 60% then he had 318 targets and a drop % (to raw targets) of 6.6%. Still higher than you'd like but not as bad.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

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malk wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:
Adipost wrote:
G08 wrote:
Adipost wrote:
I watched the UCF, UCLA, and Iowa state games. It’s scary how similar he looks to Landry. The quick cuts out of his routes, the huge hands, the catch radius and body positioning to catch inaccurate passes, the sideline screen passes turned fearlessly into the middle of the field, the always falling forward for extra yards as he’s being tackled, the massive chip on his shoulder, the fire he shows on the field that wears down the defense.
I'm starting to dig into each of these prospects today and I'm going to say that these drops are starting to piss me off.
Apparently 21 drops in the past 2 seasons.

On 191 catches.
So a 10% drop rate. I’m not sure how bad that is or if it’s even bad. :wheelchair:
Nope, we need to know the targets or better catchable balls. If his catch % is 60% then he had 318 targets and a drop % (to raw targets) of 6.6%. Still higher than you'd like but not as bad.
191 catches + 21 drops = 212 catchable passes
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Adipost wrote:
malk wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:
Adipost wrote:
G08 wrote:
I'm starting to dig into each of these prospects today and I'm going to say that these drops are starting to piss me off.
Apparently 21 drops in the past 2 seasons.

On 191 catches.
So a 10% drop rate. I’m not sure how bad that is or if it’s even bad. :wheelchair:
Nope, we need to know the targets or better catchable balls. If his catch % is 60% then he had 318 targets and a drop % (to raw targets) of 6.6%. Still higher than you'd like but not as bad.
191 catches + 21 drops = 212 catchable passes
You'll have to cite where you found these 21 drops brofessor
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G08 wrote:
Adipost wrote:
malk wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Apparently 21 drops in the past 2 seasons.

On 191 catches.
So a 10% drop rate. I’m not sure how bad that is or if it’s even bad. :wheelchair:
Nope, we need to know the targets or better catchable balls. If his catch % is 60% then he had 318 targets and a drop % (to raw targets) of 6.6%. Still higher than you'd like but not as bad.
191 catches + 21 drops = 212 catchable passes
You'll have to cite where you found these 21 drops brofessor
I found it here - likely a PFF total.

https://catcrave.com/2018/04/09/carolin ... ny-miller/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/4/19/17 ... s-seahawks" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm not a brofessor, but I am Dr Sexy, M.D.

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G08 wrote:
Adipost wrote:
malk wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:
Adipost wrote:
Apparently 21 drops in the past 2 seasons.

On 191 catches.
So a 10% drop rate. I’m not sure how bad that is or if it’s even bad. :wheelchair:
Nope, we need to know the targets or better catchable balls. If his catch % is 60% then he had 318 targets and a drop % (to raw targets) of 6.6%. Still higher than you'd like but not as bad.
191 catches + 21 drops = 212 catchable passes
You'll have to cite where you found these 21 drops brofessor
Fair, though if I wanted to quibble, and I always do, we haven't specified whether it is drop rate per target or catchable pass. The latter would make more sense but drops/catchable passes is incredibly subjective. I'd bet that quite a few receptions come off non "catchable" passes too!
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

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Adipost wrote:Anthony Miller

VS

Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry ran a 4.77 at the combine. Miller, with a foot injury, ran a 4.5 (4.46-4.52) at his pro day.


I mean, I hope Anthony Miller can become as productive as Landry - and while physically they do seem like clones - Miller does have that one additional element (speed) that Landry lacks.
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Adipost wrote:Anthony Miller

VS

Jarvis Landry

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I'll take Miller. Even if they would be identical, Landry is averaging like $15 mil, I'll take the rookie with a low cap hit for the empty stats please.
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I'm seeing Landry and OBJ comps being thrown around on these here interwebs... I think the brakes should be pumped, albeit slightly.
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I am watching more and more video of this kid, and I can't figure out why in the HOLY HELL he wasn't taken in the first round, or at the very least early second. He is a fantastic route runner, with amazing hands and body control. WOW!
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Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:I am watching more and more video of this kid, and I can't figure out why in the HOLY HELL he wasn't taken in the first round, or at the very least early second. He is a fantastic route runner, with amazing hands and body control. WOW!
He's the Baker Mayfield of this WR class. Sure, he's productive and dominating and all. But he's only 5'11"!
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Hot damn did you guys read this? This kid quickly might become my favorite Bear (behind the QB, because G08).
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Mikefive wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:I am watching more and more video of this kid, and I can't figure out why in the HOLY HELL he wasn't taken in the first round, or at the very least early second. He is a fantastic route runner, with amazing hands and body control. WOW!
He's the Baker Mayfield of this WR class. Sure, he's productive and dominating and all. But he's only 5'11"!
So are Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry. They seem to do alright.
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G08 wrote:Hot damn did you guys read this? This kid quickly might become my favorite Bear (behind the QB, because G08).
Full speed. Everything is full speed.
"I wouldn't take him for a conditional 7th. His next contract will pay him more than he could possibly contribute.".

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Some numbers on the % of targets caught for some of the top receivers (sorry for the source)...

https://sportsmockery.com/2018/05/antho ... lete-myth/
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A flippin BEAST. Enough said.

Screw the slot let this kid start already. Let Taylor Gabriel play the slot.

Bye the way is it just me or did the Bears kill this draft with Nagy here? Pace has always said he takes the head coaches suggestions very serious. I know supposedly Fox knew nothing of the Trubisky love.
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Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:
Mikefive wrote:
Bears Whiskey Nut wrote:I am watching more and more video of this kid, and I can't figure out why in the HOLY HELL he wasn't taken in the first round, or at the very least early second. He is a fantastic route runner, with amazing hands and body control. WOW!
He's the Baker Mayfield of this WR class. Sure, he's productive and dominating and all. But he's only 5'11"!
So are Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry. They seem to do alright.
Isaac Bruce 6ft tall. Tim Brown 6ft. tall. Marvin and Reggie 6ft. tall. Steve Smith Sr. 5'9". All top-10 in receiving. It ain't about the size of the dog in the fight, my man.
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In my opinion, WR height is more a safety blanket for the QB to play jump ball. I'd rather have a guy who has great hands, can get seperation and can jump good enough for contested balls.
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I saw a bunch of drops in Miller's tape so I had him as the #6 WR in the draft. He was the sixth receiver drafted so I feel pretty smug :evilgrin: He's otherwise shown what I liked about him - agility, long speed, scrappiness blocking. He's a great mid-round pick so far
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He was taken in the second round. That is an early pick not mid rounder.

By the end of the year I can see him being our Number 1 receiver. Pace hit gold on this one.
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EricTighe wrote:He was taken in the second round. That is an early pick not mid rounder.

By the end of the year I can see him being our Number 1 receiver. Pace hit gold on this one.
Really like his game. Looking forward to seeing what he can do this year. Pretty sure the ball is going to be spread around quite a bit. But I could really seeing Miller lead the team in receptions, catching 80 balls.
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Very informative article about my guy AM1700. All The Hits All The Time.

http://sportsmockery.com/2019/07/anthon ... rs-in-nfl/

Note the middle part of the article in bold. He did that while injured a lot last year too.

There is no stopping him.
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