BearsFansOnline.com

2016

Bears give:

• #11 (CB VERNON HARGREAVES) - Hargreaves has been solid but has only 1 career interception and has missed 22 games the last two seasons due to injury.
• #41 (LB REGGIE RAGLAND) - Injuries have derailed Ragland's career, and he's currently being juggled around the ass-end of the Chiefs depth chart.
• #106 (CB ERIC MURRAY) - Murray is a journeyman nothing who may be in his final NFL stop in Cleveland.
• #117 (WR PHAROH COOPER) - Has emerged as a kick return specialist, but is little-utilized in the receiving game. Missed nearly all of 2018 with an ankle injury.
• #206 (WR MIKE THOMAS) - Career highlights so far have been a 4 game PED suspension and a lost 2018 season to a groin injury.

Bears get:

• #9 (LB LEONARD FLOYD) - Floyd has missed 10 games in his three years, but started all 16 games in 2018. He has 1 pick, 1 forced fumble, 3 fumble recoveries, 32 QB hits, 114 tackles, 1 safety, and 15.5 sacks. Made the PFWA all-rookie team in 2016.
• #56 (OL CODY WHITEHAIR) - Has started every game in his Bears career, and showed the ability to excel at LG, RG, and C. Has issues with snaps, but was a Pro Bowler in 2018 regardless.
• #116 (LB NICK KWIATKOSKI) - Kwiatkoski has been a serviceable backup, and while he struggles in coverage, he has shown a propensity against the run and is a stalwart special teams presence. Injuries are a concern.
• #124 (S DEON BUSH) - His first few years in the NFL have been almost exclusively in use in special teams, with occasional emergency starts. In 2018 he got more opportunity, finishing the season with a forced fumble and a sack. Has had a tremendous 2019 camp/preseason, and may be in line for an emergent season (on a contract year).

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2017

Bears give:

• #3 (DL SOLOMON THOMAS) - His career thus far has sputtered, and Thomas has endured a lot of personal turmoil off the field that has no doubt impacted his focus and trajectory. There is still great potential there, and the 49ers are optimistic about his future, but 2019 is his crucial year to make great strides.
• #36 (S BUDDA BAKER) - After cutting his teeth in a humble rookie year, Baker seems to be settling in as a reliable, versatile tool for the Cardinals. He has yet to record an interception, but is able to play virtually any defensive back position with skill. The team has their sights set on making him their starting Free Safety in 2019.
• #67 (RB ALVIN KAMARA) - Kamara emerged as the best running back from the 2017 class, earning ROTY honors and 2 Pro Bowl selections. Currently one of the elite backs in the NFL.
• #111 (S TEDRIC THOMPSON) - With Earl Thomas moving on, the Seahawks have high hopes for Thompson. With a lot of looks in 2018, he's in a position to become starter.
• #117 (WR JOSH REYNOLDS) - Reynolds has emerged as a favorite target of Jared Goff, and is building a nice career resume for himself out in Los Angeles.
• #197 (CB JEREMY CLARK) - Has had little impact thus far. On IR for the 2019 season.
• #221 (S SHALOM LUANI) - Finding a foothold as a special teamer, but still battling for a roster spot.

Bears get:

• #2 (QB MITCHELL TRUBISKY) - We all know about Mitch's ups and downs, but there is a ton of optimism about year 2 in Nagy's offense. Trubisky needs to have a defiant, stalwart year to prove that he is past simple "great potential" and graduated into "NFL mainstay."
• #45 (TE ADAM SHAHEEN) - Jury is still out on Shaheen, whose injury concerns and lack of standout play have fans worried. The current 2019 season is likely his last chance to prove Pace didn't make a mistake taking him so highly in the draft.
• #112 (S EDDIE JACKSON) - Jackson is arguably the best safety in the NFL, emerging as a game-changing presence and made the Pro Bowl in 2018 in recognition of his terrific year.
• #114 (LB JOEL IYIEGBUNIWE) - Iggy is something of a unique case, as he was drafted almost exclusively to bolster special teams. In his first seasons in the NFL, his stats are rather meaningless, but many will be watching in 2019 to see if he can take advantage of more opportunities to distinguish himself as a vital cog in a championship window.
• #119 (RB TARIK COHEN) - The Human Joystick since Day 1 showed that he is a dynamic, dangerous presence anytime he's on the field. Versatile in running, passing, and return dimensions of football, Cohen's fresh off a Pro Bowl nod and should continue to dazzle in 2019.

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2018

Bears give:

• #70 (LB FRED WARNER) - Warner is emerging as a leader for the 49ers, calling plays from the defensive huddle, and if the game slows down for him in 2019, he could become known outside of San Fran. Had minor knee surgery this offseason, but appears to be doing well in camp.
• #105 (WR ANTONIO CALLAWAY) - Despite showing enormous promise, Callaway is quickly burning his bridge to the NFL. After a run in with police last August due to driving with a suspended license, drugs, and guns, he followed that up this year with a 4-game suspension for violation of the league's substance abuse policy.

Bears get:

• #51 (WR ANTHONY MILLER) - Miller came to the Bears with a lot of swagger, and backed it up. Despite being hobbled with shoulder injuries, Miller snared 7 touchdown catches his rookie season. If he stays healthy, he'll be another big weapon for a dangerous Bears receiver corps.

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2019

Bears give:

• #87 (RB DAMIEN HARRIS) - Struggling with injuries sustained in a preseason game.
• #162 (LB CAMERON SMITH) - Projected to be a special teams presence for Minnesota his rookie season.
• 4th round in 2020

Bears get:

• #73 (DAVID MONTGOMERY) - While it's obviously still extremely early, Montgomery's camp and preseason has been very exciting, demonstrating why Pace was so engrossed in moving up to acquire him in the 2019 draft.

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Love it... another sticky to visit as the years go by??

G08 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:24 pm Love it... another sticky to visit as the years go by??

I've got it archived in my materials so I'll try to update it annually.

BUT HE GOT FLEECED

wab wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:33 amBUT HE GOT FLEECED

As I was doing this, I was kind of trying to restrain myself from having that be a talking point, lol. Pace clearly, without question, won that trade.

What's your thinking behind this? It's interesting but given we traded picks not picked players it's a bit arbitrary no? Hope this doesn't come across as snarky, I'm genuinely interested.

malk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:45 am What's your thinking behind this? It's interesting but given we traded picks not picked players it's a bit arbitrary no? Hope this doesn't come across as snarky, I'm genuinely interested.

Not really trying to prove one thing or another, simply follow the footsteps to see who the traded picks became and better learn to equate value as a fan (for my own benefit). I feel like a lot of people place irrational value on picks when they're traded because they assume that every pick is a surefire depth piece or star. Ultimately a lot of the picks become nothing, no matter the round.

The only player that really stood out to me as a pick that turned into a tremendous talent was Kamara, and that wasn't directly attributed. The Saints had to acquire that pick subsequently from the Bears dealing it away.

Basically I'd like to be armed with some data if Pace deals picks in the future, to present to those would argue that Pace has a history of being "fleeced," when in fact his draft trades have trended toward success.

malk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:45 am What's your thinking behind this? It's interesting but given we traded picks not picked players it's a bit arbitrary no? Hope this doesn't come across as snarky, I'm genuinely interested.

Not arbitrary at all in my opinion. Like UOK said, fans (I'm guilty of this as well) loathe the idea of giving up picks to move around in the draft. It's always nice to see who the Bears got vs. who the other teams got with the picks given up.

I'd call each of those trades overall successes.

wab wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:58 am

malk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:45 am What's your thinking behind this? It's interesting but given we traded picks not picked players it's a bit arbitrary no? Hope this doesn't come across as snarky, I'm genuinely interested.

Not arbitrary at all in my opinion. Like UOK said, fans (I'm guilty of this as well) loathe the idea of giving up picks to move around in the draft. It's always nice to see who the Bears got vs. who the other teams got with the picks given up.

I'd call each of those trades overall successes.

@UOK too.

It's just that doing things this way makes the success criteria of a trade down to how good/lucky the other team is at drafting. E.g. in 2017, if our original 4th round pick at #111 goes on Jackson rather than Tedric Thompson then it's a very different draft, if that makes sense.

malk wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:33 am
It's just that doing things this way makes the success criteria of a trade down to how good/lucky the other team is at drafting. E.g. in 2017, if our original 4th round pick at #111 goes on Jackson rather than Tedric Thompson then it's a very different draft, if that makes sense.

It's an lot of spaghetti to sift through, and really the "results" of this kind of quest are really only as valuable as you want them to be. There's no real consistent means for comparison.

It likely would be more "valuable," I guess, to look at what picks the Bears traded away and players that were taken within 3 picks of that slot. But then you're opening up even more doors into just how convoluted a rabbit hole you want this to be.

UOK wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:39 am

malk wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:33 am
It's just that doing things this way makes the success criteria of a trade down to how good/lucky the other team is at drafting. E.g. in 2017, if our original 4th round pick at #111 goes on Jackson rather than Tedric Thompson then it's a very different draft, if that makes sense.

It's an lot of spaghetti to sift through, and really the "results" of this kind of quest are really only as valuable as you want them to be. There's no real consistent means for comparison.

It likely would be more "valuable," I guess, to look at what picks the Bears traded away and players that were taken within 3 picks of that slot. But then you're opening up even more doors into just how convoluted a rabbit hole you want this to be.

All of the doors thank you please.

He still could have had mahomes and 2 decent players there. Laugh.

Clearly Pace has been successful in the draft.

Overall, I think Pace got better than average value for his trades, just wasn't always enamored with the guy he picked. So for me there isn't an argument worth entertaining that Pace got fleeced. However there will always be room for debate on whether the trades (first round especially), were necessary and that the player he chose was worth it. In general Pace's trades outside round 1 have usually yielded successful players that more than justified moving around. Last year calling Buffalo to see if they were interested in trading and 'getting the tell' that they wanted Montgommery, so we could trade up in front of them was just brilliant.
Playing armchair GM, I wanted Beasley instead of White; 2016, I wanted Conklin, but would have settled for Hargreaves; 2017, I had Mahomes #1, Watson #2, and wasn't interested much in Trubisky. When the trade was announced, I thought for sure we were taking Watson... So figuring out talent in the draft isn't easy.

Someone on reddit did a great breakdown of the value of all the picks made by Pace.

So I dont know how to articulate my point and this is kind of a thought experiment. Draft picks in the nfl have a poor success rate. Injury, adaptation, and Bitches be Crazy all come into play. I also think the gauging the traded picks against each other is disingenuous. But I dont know why. It's almost like dodgeball in elementary school. After the first 3 picks no one matters.

Anyway every year sense the Tommie Harris draft I have kept a who I would draft. The Trubisky draft was the first I refused to adhere to the Bears trade. I didn't like it, I wanted Mahomes, and hated the concept to trade one spot.

So to add a different context.

Bears draft

2016
#9 Leonard Floyd, I drafted Laremy Tunsil. I think a starting LT whom is fairly solid wins this selection. Winner Me.

#56 Cody Whitehair vs Carl Nassib. Nassib is a borderline starter at DE. While I think as a 5T he would be better, Whitehair is a super solid pick and i loved the selection. Winner Pace.

#113.Nick Kwiatkoski vs Kenneth Dixon. Keith is a very good backup and Specialist. Dixon's career showed promise but lost due to injuries. Winner Pace.

#124 Deon Bush vs Connor McGovern. Back up S vs starting C. Winner me.

I think this selection is fairly balanced. I did pick Jacoby Brissett in the third whom I loved and it makes me look smart so... I win.

2017 I refused the trade

Trubisky vs Mahomes and Jordan Willis I win.

Shaheen vs Chidobe Awuzie Jeremiah Ledbetter
Christopher Carson. I win drastically.

Eddie Jackson vs Bucky Hodges and Chad Hansen. Pace wins

Pace got a pro bowl S, I got an all pro QB, starting CB, and RB.

2018

Anthony Miller vs James Washington. Draw

2019
David Montgomery vs David Montgomery Draw

So it's hard to quantify but I dont think the trades have been great. I do think however Pace has done well.

Those numbers are making me really hope Jordan Howard can run his way to a 5th round pick for us.

I think Pace has been above average and has learned on the job.

Even if they get rid of Nagy I would prefer to keep Pace vs training someone all over again.

Pace has been missing or inconclusive in round 1, the money round. White was a complete miss and the Bears could have taken Vic Beasley for their new 3-4 defense. They moved up for Floyd, who has been adequate. They moved up for Trubisky when they could have moved down and still taken Watson or Mahomes. Roquan was a quality pick. He's been much bettetr in lower rounds. He hit it out of the park with Eddie Jackson and Howard and home runs with Amos, Whitehair, and Kwiatkoski. Daniels, Miller, Nichols, and Wims are getting better. He needs to stop reaching based on potential, stop trying to be the best wheeler-dealer in the room and turn into the smartest one.

Those stats all tell me Pace needs to trade down early and acquire more mid round picks, where he excels. Then he can have more ammo to move around the middle of the draft when he wants to.

Z Bear wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:30 pm Those stats all tell me Pace needs to trade down early and acquire more mid round picks, where he excels. Then he can have more ammo to move around the middle of the draft when he wants to.

I agree. A strategy which has been successfully employed by several teams to build contenders.

BamaBear09 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:06 am Someone on reddit did a great breakdown of the value of all the picks made by Pace.

It's a lot of work and interesting, but

1) Who is providing this "AV"?

2) Just subtracting their draft slot from AV is very problematic, because value isn't linear.
For example, if you "overdraft" 75 places by taking a guy at 5 who was "worth" 80, that's vastly different from taking a guy at 175 who produced like a 250.
Using that methodology overemphasizes how you did later in the draft and underrates early in the draft...which just happens to be exactly the kind of methodology that would overrate Pace - a guy who does well mid-late draft, but poorly in the high rounds.