Yogi's Final Picnic Basket (2020)

College football and the NFL Draft

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Yogi da Bear
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For this final Basket I’m going to do something I’ve never done for the basket—use a Mock Draft Simulator (at First Pick). This is because I’m sure that the Bears will have to trade down in the second, and the simulator gives at least a shot at predicting it. I realize that First Pick makes some outrageous trades possible, so I tried to limit the trades I made to those that were pretty realistic. For instance, I didn’t allow any trades with another NFC North team. Further, I explain the trades and explain why they’re plausible. The one thing this exercise convinced me of was that the Bears will absolutely trade down in the second. Sure, there are players to be had at our spots, but the real value to us in this draft is in the third and fourth rounds. With that explanation, here’s my final Basket for 2020.

Round 2—TRADE: (43)With Seattle for picks 59 and 64 in Round 2. Seattle moves up to take CB Jeff Gladney from TCU who is the 24th ranked player on First Pick’s Board. I can see Seattle moving up for a top flight CB.

Round 2(50)Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor, WR, Baylor, 6’3”, 210.

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Mims was my first pick in my first Basket this year at #43. I’ll admit that after that first basket, I didn’t think that Mims would be available to us then, probably go in the first to Green Bay. :angry: In fact, it’s one of the reasons I didn’t take him at #43 in this simulation. So I traded down. Surprise, surprise. He was still available at #50. Had to take him, and as I think about it, with all the WRs in this draft, particularly speed receivers, it’s very possible he could fall here.

Round 2 (59) from Seattle—TRADE: with New England for picks #87, #98, and #100. New England moves up to grab Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame. After losing Gronk the way they have, I could totally see them moving up to take Kmet.

Round 2 (64) from Seattle: Ben Bartch, OT, St. John’s (Minnesota), 6’6”, 309.

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The one thing I’m realizing for this draft is that if you want to get an offensive left tackle prospect, you’re going to have to grab one in the second. In the simulation, this was the only pick I had ranked below an A, but it had to be done. He wasn’t going to be there for our next pick.

Round 3(87) from New England: Ben Bredeson, OG, Michigan, 6’5”, 315.

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For some inexplicable reason, Bredeson has fallen in this draft’s prognostications. Originally, my second pick at #50 in my first basket, he’s still my favorite guard in this draft. If he’s not here, there’s still plenty of guards available.

Round 3(98) from New England: TRADE—with Jacksonville for picks 116, 137, and 140. Jacksonville moves up to take Devin Duvernay. I could absolutely see them doing this, especially after they’ve released Marquise Lee. In fact, Duvernay would be somebody I’d target if we didn’t get Mims. This is the last trade I make in the simulation.

Round 3(100) from Seattle: Logan Wilson, OT, Wyoming, 6’2”, 241.

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Sixth Round in my original basket. Apparently, he’s been moving up the boards. Still my favorite linebacker in this draft.

Round 4(116) from Jacksonville: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri, 6’5”, 258.


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Albert O still needs a lot of work. His routes are sloppy and rounded. He’s willing, but not the best blocker. But he has something that’s hard to teach—speed! The fastest TE at the Combine by a long margin with a 4.49 40. He can separate! A touchdown in every 4.2 touches testifies to that. And he has decent hands too. If we want to really open up our offense, this is the guy to do it. Seems like he was made for Nagy.



Round 4(137) from Jacksonville: Antonio Gibson, WR/RB, Memphis, 6’0”, 228.

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My favorite player in this draft. Not just made for Matt Nagy, but sculpted for him. He gives us a speed receiver with size and a power RB with speed. Next year, when Tariq’s rookie deal is up, he’d be a bigger, faster, more powerful replacement for him. Did I say he could return kicks? Want to let Patterson and his 5.7 million dollar contract go? Here’s the guy to make that happen.

Round 4: (140) from Jacksonville: Tanner Muse, SS, Clemson, 6’2”, 227.

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NFL.com describes Muse a “slow footed” safety whose best bet would be to shift to LB in the pros. Well, the Bears need an in the box safety. What could be better than a safety who’s projected to switch to linebacker. Muse certainly hits like a linebacker. He has the physicality to take on a TE. And with a 4.41 40, it’s hard to imagine that he’s “slow footed.”

While it’s true that Muse didn’t perform any of the quickness drills at the Combine, watching his game film, it seems that he’s more uncertain than “slow footed.” I know when he comes on a blitz, his speed makes it seem like he comes from nowhere. He’s also able to get to passes that many safeties wouldn’t be able to. With his speed and size, he’d make an excellent special teamer and provide backup as a nickel linebacker. He could also play in goal line situations as an in the box safety. He’s a hybrid player whose versatility allows for a myriad of contributions.



Round 5(163): Anthony Gordan, QB, Washington State, 6’2”, 205.


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Took over for Garner Minshew at Washington State after playing second fiddle to him for three years. Threw for over 5,500 yards, a 72% completion percentage, and 48 TDs last year. Doesn’t have a tremendously strong arm, but he’s very accurate (as his completion percentage attests) with a great touch and a good long ball. Not a great runner, but he moves in the pocket well and seemingly without any concern (doesn’t get the jitters). He would be a good prospect as a developmental QB. With Foles, we’ve adopted the Titan model—a veteran QB to push the second pick QB, and with Gordon, we’ve adopted the Jacksonville model—a rookie Washington State QB to push Foles. At this point with our QB situation, we have to pull all the stops.



Round 6(196): A.J. Green, CB, Oklahoma State, 6’1”, 202.

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With his three years of starting experience and his size, you’d think Green would be a second day pick minimum. In fact, when I showed my kid his highlights, he told me there’s no way he’d be there at this selection. But his 4.62 40 at the Combine is absolutely going to kill him. The thing is that on the field, he doesn’t appear near that slow. In fact, he held Denzel Mims to only 1 catch for 16 yards, CeeDee Lamb only 4 catches for 36 yards, and Quartney Davis to only 6 catches for 48 yards. At a certain point, you have put aside track and field tests and look at what actually happens on the field. With Green, this is what you’ll find:



Can’t help but think of Richard Sherman…?

Round 6(200): D.J. Wonnum, DE/OLB, South Carolina, 6’5”, 254.


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Make no mistake, despite decent production, this is a developmental guy. He has good size and decent speed (4.72 40). He started as a sophomore and finished with 57 stops, 13 TFLs, and 6 sacks and was named permanent team captain for his performance and his work ethic. And ankle injury in ’18 limited him to five games where he had 11 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks. As a senior he had 37 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks. Despite that decent production, his technique is crap. He has no hand game at all, yet still he shows flashes.

If he can increase his strength and work on some hand techniques and counter moves, he could develop into something. He’ll certainly work at it.



Round 7(226): Josiah Deguara, TE, Cincinnati, 6’2’, 242


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Yes, straight out of my original basket but down a round. Surprised he was there. The more tape I watch the more I’m convinced that he’s the best blocking TE in the draft. With his size, blocking ability, and hands, he’d make an excellent H-Back slash fullback. Would love to see him rather than Holz in our I.

Round 7(233): L’Jarius Sneed, S/CB, Louisiana Tech, 6’1”, 191.

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Kind of surprised but the fastest safety at the Combine wasn’t on First Pick’s draft board at all (took Antoine Brooks instead). With his athleticism, he’ll probably go higher, but what the hell, this is MY Picnic Basket. You would have thought the same of Stephen Denmark last year. Sneed played CB for three years until he moved to safety last year. Not only is he fast, but he’s pretty physical as well.



Speed kills.

That’s my Final Picnic Basket for 2020. Man, if this were to happen, I’d be absolutely ecstatic. The one thing this Basket illustrates is how much we need to trade down. We can address just so many areas in the third and fourth rounds. I tried to keep the trades reasonable, and the basket shows how many picks we can recoup in that area if we’re willing to do so. The other thing I noticed is that if we want a developmental tackle, we have to get him in the second or early third. And lot of OTs are going in the first round. But having said all this, Pace will probably trade up.

Incidentally, I didn’t include clips for prospects from my first basket. If you want them, they are here. viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14117

BRING ON THE DRAFT!
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I gotta tell you, YdB .... I missed the Picnic Baskets while I was in my message board Nomad period. Great job and, as always, you clearly did your homework.

Few thoughts:
Mims - love the pick there, but First Pick will probably need to update their Board because I can't see him getting out of the First Round, let alone to #50. Reagor, Jefferson or Duvarney could be more likely picks there. I love the thought process though of a game breaking WR at that spot.

Bartch - I struggle with a DIII player that early in the draft. They don't get the coaching or the strength training that higher level programs provide. Until the Senior Bowl, he had never faced anyone in his life who has gone on to play in the NFL. I don't mind Bartch overall, per say, but not this early in the draft.

Bredson - even as an Ohio State homer, I do love Michigan offensive linemen. Great pick and I think he's really underrated.

Okwuegbunam - he was kind of a Ho Hum prospect until he ran at the Combine, those kind of guys make me nervous. Never really jumped out after his first year, especially when you now know he's got superior athletic tools. While Harrison Bryant is My Guy, I also like Pinkney of Vanderbilt, who reminds me a lot of Desmond Clark.

Gordon - love, love, love this pick. I think he's better than Minshew and a much better bargain than Eason, Fromm, Hurt, etc.
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Picking QBs in the 5th now Yogi?!?!?! How the world has changed (and I like that pick BTW)

Begging you : Bring in Sullivan TE LSU with one of those 6ths

Not a fan of the first three picks (*) - though I need more research on the Michigan Guard (so I punt my evaluation there)

Really like the draft starting with Wilson though - great value to be had

Question: Are Claypool and Pittman (either) still on the board when you make the Mims pick?

(*) Love the trade downs though
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wulfy wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:11 pmMims - love the pick there, but First Pick will probably need to update their Board because I can't see him getting out of the First Round, let alone to #50. Reagor, Jefferson or Duvarney could be more likely picks there. I love the thought process though of a game breaking WR at that spot.
I actually agree with you here Wulfy. Mims was my first pick in my first basket at #42 after the Combine. That's why I traded out of this pick with Mims on the board for this basket. I was hoping he would go. But he didn't.

Then I started researching it a little bit. First, I started thinking that with how deep the WR group is, it could cause him to fall a bit. He does have his warts. I noticed that A.J. Green held him to like 5 catches for less than 80 yards in three games over three years. A 4.62 guy? I think he was able to do that because Green is a real physical press corner. Apparently, Mims has a hard time beating press coverage.

And researching it further, I discovered that NFL.Com has him ranked as the 11th best receiver and the 67th ranked player in the draft. I trust NFL.Com. I figure if any site has accurate and inside information, it should be that one. I think a lot of these other pundit sites talk and collude with one another. I went to Fanspeak's site and looked at all the draft boards there. Check out how many of them rank Mims 29th. Uncanny. Coincidence? I think not.

So I took him at #50. But personally, I feel you're probably right and he'll go late first round. Probably to Green Bay. :angry: Let's see if he can beat Kyle's press coverage. :D If that happens, I would have no problem taking Claypool at #50. I tend to shy away from Hamler as being too Gabrielish. But I do like DuVernay in the 3-4 or Watkins, Mooney, or Hightower much later. But the one WR I absolutely must insist on is WR/RB Antonio Gibson. I'll be tremendously bummed if we don't get him. He's such a perfect fit for Nagy. AN-TOE-KNEE-OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooo! lol

Bartch - I struggle with a DIII player that early in the draft. They don't get the coaching or the strength training that higher level programs provide. Until the Senior Bowl, he had never faced anyone in his life who has gone on to play in the NFL. I don't mind Bartch overall, per say, but not this early in the draft.
I originally had us taking him with our Comp pick in the fourth, but he's been moving up. It's a reach pick for me and was the only pick I made that didn't give me an A or A+. But if I didn't take him then, he wasn't going to be there for my next pick. After him, there are NO left tackles left and only one right tackle. Watching the Senior Bowl and the Shrine game, and the tackle play was absolute crap. I mean must horrible. The only tackles I saw that were any good in the All Star games were Josh Jones and Bartch. So I took him.
Bredson - even as an Ohio State homer, I do love Michigan offensive linemen. Great pick and I think he's really underrated.
Man, that Michigan offensive line was absolutely INSANE this year: Runyan (although should switch to OG in the Pros, looked good there in the Shrine Game), Bredeson, Ruiz, and Onwenu. Onwenu is a favorite late round OG pick for me if we don't address it early. A real beast.
Okwuegbunam - he was kind of a Ho Hum prospect until he ran at the Combine, those kind of guys make me nervous. Never really jumped out after his first year, especially when you now know he's got superior athletic tools. While Harrison Bryant is My Guy, I also like Pinkney of Vanderbilt, who reminds me a lot of Desmond Clark.
I'll admit I picked him up for his speed. I mean come on, a 4.49 40 from a TE! Are you kidding me? If we want to open up our offense and threaten the seams, that's one way to do it. And you know, a TD every 4.2 touches went a long way in convincing me. Definitely needs work though.
Gordon - love, love, love this pick. I think he's better than Minshew and a much better bargain than Eason, Fromm, Hurt, etc.
He's my favorite late round QB. Also like Morgan from FIU. Like you, I don't think we can afford to go with those second round QBs.
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RichH55 wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:22 pm Picking QBs in the 5th now Yogi?!?!?! How the world has changed (and I like that pick BTW)
Clearly you didn't understand what I was saying. I specifically said that I wasn't against taking a QB late, only that I was against it if you only had like five picks and none in the first two rounds. Said it over and over and over again. Also said I had no problem taking a QB if you had seven or more picks. Said that numerous times too. Don't know why you don't get that. :? Or did you get it and are just conveniently twisting my argument...? Again....
Begging you : Bring in Sullivan TE LSU with one of those 6ths
I like Sullivan and wouldn't be against him in the sixth at all.



Bredeson is my favorite guard. Technically I think he's the best out there. But there are a whole lot of OGs I would be happy with. They're listed in my first basket. It's a deep OG class. Check out the highlights of Muti. Funny as hell. Like watching the Three Stooges.



Yeah, they're both available. And like I said to Wulfy, I would have no problem whatsoever taking Claypool there. Wouldn't pursue Pittman though. We need speed receivers. I don't know if we have the space for another 6'3-4", 4.5 plus guy. Not that I think he's a bad receiver, just kind of redundant on our team.
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Yogi da Bear wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:36 pm
RichH55 wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:22 pm Picking QBs in the 5th now Yogi?!?!?! How the world has changed (and I like that pick BTW)
Clearly you didn't understand what I was saying. I specifically said that I wasn't against taking a QB late, only that I was against it if you only had like five picks and none in the first two rounds. Said it over and over and over again. Also said I had no problem taking a QB if you had seven or more picks. Said that numerous times too. Don't know why you don't get that. :? Or did you get it and are just conveniently twisting my argument...? Again....
Begging you : Bring in Sullivan TE LSU with one of those 6ths
I like Sullivan and wouldn't be against him in the sixth at all.



Bredeson is my favorite guard. Technically I think he's the best out there. But there are a whole lot of OGs I would be happy with. They're listed in my first basket. It's a deep OG class. Check out the highlights of Muti. Funny as hell. Like watching the Three Stooges.



Yeah, they're both available. And like I said to Wulfy, I would have no problem whatsoever taking Claypool there. Wouldn't pursue Pittman though. We need speed receivers. I don't know if we have the space for another 6'3-4", 4.5 plus guy. Not that I think he's a bad receiver, just kind of redundant on our team.
So the rules on QB is 7 (or more) picks? I was always curious as to what the constructs of the nonsense premises were. (So at least we are getting somewhere there - Do rounds matter? Or just 7 picks minimum in whatever other rounds?)

SO if the Bears had the Picks they have now - and traded their 2 7ths to move up into the 6th (for TE Sullivan) (only 6 picks overall)- That means you no longer would pick Anthony Gordon in the 5th?

Heckuva sales pitch of your belief in him if true



Muti is a fun player - the problem is that his highlight tape might literally consist of every single snap he played over 3 years


Mims just worries me because he looked "OK" at the Senior Bowl practices - and this wasn't an elite group of corners out there this year. - Absolute BEST I could rate him was 4th of the Senior Bowl WR - and that might be generous
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It's a cool draft. A foundational draft. It is just so... "un-Pace-like"...
2023 Chicago Bears... emerging from a long hibernation, and hungry!
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RichH55 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:43 am So the rules on QB is 7 (or more) picks? I was always curious as to what the constructs of the nonsense premises were. (So at least we are getting somewhere there - Do rounds matter? Or just 7 picks minimum in whatever other rounds?)

SO if the Bears had the Picks they have now - and traded their 2 7ths to move up into the 6th (for TE Sullivan) (only 6 picks overall)- That means you no longer would pick Anthony Gordon in the 5th?

Heckuva sales pitch of your belief in him if true
Might as well put the third rule in there for you (and it was also there in my original presentation)--needs matter. If you already have three qbs who the team is happy with (as the Bears felt last year) it would be stupid to pick a late round QB with so few picks. Ty thought the situation was addressed already with the guys we had on our roster. In that case, it's a bit like taking a kicker when you already have a Justin Tucker. Only so many roster spots.


Primarily it's the number of picks but having only third round and below doesn't help. Nor does only having two seconds, a fifth, two sixths, and a seventh. The only reason I took Gordan was because of how many picks I ended up having. Wouldn't have taken him if we only had the picks we have now. Too many other needs.

In fact, I went through the whole history of late round picks. Like only three times since the draft went to 7 rounds have late round QBs been chosen when a team had under 7 picks and in each of those cases, QB was a dire necessity for them. Something like 90% of late round QBs have been chosen by a team with at least 7 picks. Like 70 percent when they had 8 or more and something like 25% when they had 10 or more. But I already gave you all that research for you. You apparently had no desire to read it. Not going through it again. Done. Stop trolling.

Muti is a fun player - the problem is that his highlight tape might literally consist of every single snap he played over 3 years
That clip is funny because of all the holds he has in them. It's like WWE body slam time. I like Muti, but I would only take him if we also brought in another OG. Other OGs I like are listed in my first basket.
Mims just worries me because he looked "OK" at the Senior Bowl practices - and this wasn't an elite group of corners out there this year. - Absolute BEST I could rate him was 4th of the Senior Bowl WR - and that might be generous

I don't necessarily agree with that Senior Bowl assessment, but him not being absolutely stellar out there (which I do agree with) is what will allow him to fall to #50 if he does.
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I don't see Jeff Gladney as such enticing bait because I have him at 41 with Jaylon Johnson right behind at 43.
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Middleguard wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:43 pm I don't see Jeff Gladney as such enticing bait because I have him at 41 with Jaylon Johnson right behind at 43.
After Okudah and Henderson, the next four CBs--Gladney, Diggs, Johnson, and Terrell--are all closely ranked. NFL.Com has them all within .04. After that, there's a pretty big drop off of .07. If a team wants to get one of those top tier guys, they're going to have to trade up. And then, this CB class is not near as deep as the WR class is.

Another position for trade bait would be OT. If you don't get one in the second, don't bother. In the simulation I ran, I was down to two OTs I would like by pick 43, and both of them were reaches at that point. If one of the top 7 OTs were to fall, that would be really enticing trade bait.
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