Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

College football and the NFL Draft

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IE
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Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:50 am

I'm un-burying this from another conversation.

I'm wondering if there should be more consideration in terms of draft strategy that suggests GMs look at this class and next year's class a little differently than usual. There is a strong chance there won't be a season for EITHER pro or college. There very well may not be any further information gained between now and the '21 draft.

So hypothetically what, really, is the problem with trading next year's draft capital for a player you really like this year? Granted, there are players that will be entering the draft that could be more desirable than some this year. But the potential time gap gives teams 2 drafts worth of capital to fill key holes, and doesn't have to go through a season without having a good amount of fresh rookie blood.

And then for next year's draft... is it really "fair" to keep the draft order the same as this year, if there isn't a season? Or could they potentially pick names out of a hat like the NBA, and have it be less certain?

It seems like almost everyone is approaching this as "normal". But things may have changed dramatically and we just don't know for sure yet. I'm sure some GMs are gaming it out. I'm guessing not many would base their draft on it. But I think if I was Pace I'd strongly consider using next year's picks if there was a key guy he covets this year.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:27 pm

I wildly disagree with your premise that there's a "strong chance" there won't be a season for pro or college. The shutdowns for zillions of C19 resistant people are absolutely financially devastating and by extension, the economy as a whole. There's no way everything will be on hold in September anything like the way it is now. While there are a very small percentage of exceptions, C19 is primarily a problem for the elderly or those already compromised. That nearly doesn't apply to college students or NFL players and those who do can stay away. This issue is going to evolve into a "stay home if you think you must" voluntary situation, so that things are as close to normal as possible by election time.

Just my take. Continue with your regularly scheduled football discussion. :-)
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:50 pm

I brought this up in a thread recently. If the stay-at-home continues into summer and fall, and the college seasons are affected, what happens with the draft next year? Are players being evaluated on this years #'s in NCAA. Considering we don't have a 1st and not much after the two 2nd's...I'd trade a 1st and maybe a 5th next year to get into the late part of tonight's 1st round, or something like that. Get good players in the building now, while there's recent stats and film to evaluate. I guess I'm just longing for a 1st rounder, lol
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:14 pm

Mikefive wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:27 pm
I wildly disagree with your premise that there's a "strong chance" there won't be a season for pro or college. The shutdowns for zillions of C19 resistant people are absolutely financially devastating and by extension, the economy as a whole. There's no way everything will be on hold in September anything like the way it is now. While there are a very small percentage of exceptions, C19 is primarily a problem for the elderly or those already compromised. That nearly doesn't apply to college students or NFL players and those who do can stay away. This issue is going to evolve into a "stay home if you think you must" voluntary situation, so that things are as close to normal as possible by election time.

Just my take. Continue with your regularly scheduled football discussion. :-)
I think youre a bit off at large as to the ultimate covid response, but there will be a lot of motivation from networks to make the NFL and the major conference seasons go on in a tightly controlled environment. But for smaller conferences, it's could be tough to financially put on game day productions with what will be considered all the proper safety measures.

So not sure what that means as far as scouting small conference guys next year, but I think there's some risk in those seasons.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:18 pm

I think there's almost no risk that football will be cancelled this year. Just don't see it happening. But then, I think that Covid has been blown all out of proportion anyway. I don't see it as much more than a really bad flu.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:34 pm

OK well this wasn't a conversation about that. And like UOK posted, it is a conversation likely full of contradicting opinions and potential argument that is not about football. So I don't really care about anyone's POV on that. It doesn't matter what you or I think. What happens will happen regardless.

It's too bad people focused on that, instead of the ACTUAL point - which was just an attempt to have discussion about strategies IF something happened. But OK... have a good draft.

:backout:
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:55 pm

Not a political view. In fact, I've turned off all news during this "Quarantine." It's a personal view. And if we're still in quarantine come September, I'm personally going to strangle my whole household. lol
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:17 pm

Sure, you might be willing to deal 2021 picks cavalierly, with the suspicion that they will be less valuable - but that only works well if others aren't thinking that way. If they're sitting around thinking "I'm not giving up jack for a 2021 - that's going to be an all-time awful draft class", then dealing them isn't going to do good things for you.
You have to guess right AND find a trading partner who's wrong in the "right direction" for it to pay off for you.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:49 pm

There are some serious supplemental draft considerations at play too.

Also, let’s make sure we be adults in this thread.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:11 pm

wab wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:49 pm
There are some serious supplemental draft considerations at play too.

Also, let’s make sure we be adults in this thread.
Why would supplemental be more prominent? That's mainly in regards to eligibility issues. Do you think if seasons are cancelled it could cause college eligibility disputes?
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:39 am

Moriarty wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:17 pm
Sure, you might be willing to deal 2021 picks cavalierly, with the suspicion that they will be less valuable - but that only works well if others aren't thinking that way. If they're sitting around thinking "I'm not giving up jack for a 2021 - that's going to be an all-time awful draft class", then dealing them isn't going to do good things for you.
You have to guess right AND find a trading partner who's wrong in the "right direction" for it to pay off for you.
Yeah - you're right. My thinking (which I believe is supported by some evidence here) is that many are indeed not thinking that way. So it could be a time to take advantage of people in denial. Like finding people to sell stock to at a high price entering a recession. They're plentiful and they're out there.

So first round is done, and maybe Pace wouldn't want to make bets with his only $500 chip. But maybe when he gets down a bit even to his $100 and $25 chips he can find some really bad, unobservant gamblers.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:31 am

IE wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:39 am
Moriarty wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:17 pm
Sure, you might be willing to deal 2021 picks cavalierly, with the suspicion that they will be less valuable - but that only works well if others aren't thinking that way. If they're sitting around thinking "I'm not giving up jack for a 2021 - that's going to be an all-time awful draft class", then dealing them isn't going to do good things for you.
You have to guess right AND find a trading partner who's wrong in the "right direction" for it to pay off for you.
Yeah - you're right. My thinking (which I believe is supported by some evidence here) is that many are indeed not thinking that way. So it could be a time to take advantage of people in denial. Like finding people to sell stock to at a high price entering a recession. They're plentiful and they're out there.

So first round is done, and maybe Pace wouldn't want to make bets with his only $500 chip. But maybe when he gets down a bit even to his $100 and $25 chips he can find some really bad, unobservant gamblers.
So what do you think the arbitrage may be? The general rule if thumb is a pick next year losing one round in value. Do you give up 1.5 rounds or 2 rounds in value instead?
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:50 am

If you see your posts missing, you know why. If you find yourself unable to logon next time...you'll also know why.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:04 am

The Cooler King wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:11 pm
wab wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:49 pm
There are some serious supplemental draft considerations at play too.

Also, let’s make sure we be adults in this thread.
Why would supplemental be more prominent? That's mainly in regards to eligibility issues. Do you think if seasons are cancelled it could cause college eligibility disputes?
It's possible. For example... if there's no season (hypothetically), what would prevent a player who is three years removed from high school and is entering his final year of eligibility from actively trying to become academically ineligible in order to participate in the supplemental draft? Or what if a player signs with an agent anytime between now and late June, making himself ineligible?

I know it's unlikely, and the NFL wouldn't be required to accept that player's application to the supplemental draft. But...these are weird times and the NFL - being the business it is - could feel pressured to relax the requirements.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:05 am

The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:31 am
IE wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:39 am


Yeah - you're right. My thinking (which I believe is supported by some evidence here) is that many are indeed not thinking that way. So it could be a time to take advantage of people in denial. Like finding people to sell stock to at a high price entering a recession. They're plentiful and they're out there.

So first round is done, and maybe Pace wouldn't want to make bets with his only $500 chip. But maybe when he gets down a bit even to his $100 and $25 chips he can find some really bad, unobservant gamblers.
So what do you think the arbitrage may be? The general rule if thumb is a pick next year losing one round in value. Do you give up 1.5 rounds or 2 rounds in value instead?
Good question. There has to be some kind of a hedge or "bird in the hand" calculus they could do, if they consider they might get very little further information about players in the draft next year. It is a a ratio, as you mention.

For example the Bears don't have a 3rd or 4th rounder but let's say some TE has slipped surprisingly and sitting there. I personally don't think the in-person interviews matter as much as the games played and measurables. Why not trade next year's 3rd and 4th and 7th (just an example - I know the exact value chart) to get the guy you really like? Maybe it is 1.5X the value chart in normal times, and the other team with a different mindset thinks they're raping you. But their information is no better than yours, and there is indeed no certainty. IF you assume next year you have no better information, do you want to draft next year's senior with no tape, or get the guy you know?
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:29 pm

Worst worst case - Football cancelled in 2020 - you trade pick for next year - they roll over a draft class and have two years of talent in one class

(I put odds of this pretty near zero though)
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:07 pm

IE wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:05 am
The Cooler King wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:31 am

So what do you think the arbitrage may be? The general rule if thumb is a pick next year losing one round in value. Do you give up 1.5 rounds or 2 rounds in value instead?
Good question. There has to be some kind of a hedge or "bird in the hand" calculus they could do, if they consider they might get very little further information about players in the draft next year. It is a a ratio, as you mention.

For example the Bears don't have a 3rd or 4th rounder but let's say some TE has slipped surprisingly and sitting there. I personally don't think the in-person interviews matter as much as the games played and measurables. Why not trade next year's 3rd and 4th and 7th (just an example - I know the exact value chart) to get the guy you really like? Maybe it is 1.5X the value chart in normal times, and the other team with a different mindset thinks they're raping you. But their information is no better than yours, and there is indeed no certainty. IF you assume next year you have no better information, do you want to draft next year's senior with no tape, or get the guy you know?
Interestingly in the two cases where Pace traded future year picks, he didn't really pay a "time value" premium, so that rule of discounting didn't really apply;

Per the traditional chart
In the Miller trade the "deficit" was 306 pts which is about pick 59, a late 2nd. He traded a future second
In the Montgomery trade the "deficit" was 52.8 pts., roughly pick 141, a mid 4th. He traded a future fourth

In the one trade where he received a future pick, he seemed to get that 1 round premium. In 2016 when he traded 41 for 49 an received No 117 in return, they were still short 20 points, which is a late 5th. He got a future 4th in return.
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:21 pm

PHI at 103 or BAL at 106 seem like decent targets for a future trade up. If they trade pick 196 or 200 they're at about a high 4th round deficit. So it would probably take you next year's third at least, but maybe that's the premium you're willing to pay anyways because of uncertainty next year. Those are pretty smart FO's though, they may be factoring in the same uncertainty.

The other thing is you're always targeting a specific guy when you trade up. Who might Pace be targeting in these scenarios is the real question that has to be answered first. A falling Hurts/Fromm? A DB or IOL (if he goes BPA at 43 and 50 and doesn't fill those needs). A WR with Rd 2 talent who's falling because how deep this draft is there?
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Re: Draft Strategy - "Lost Season" version

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:50 pm

Well good call IE. A 4th next year for a 5th.
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