Trask in the second out the window

[Arkansasbear]

When the season got started, I wanted us to go OL with our first pick and use the 64th pick in next year draft to land Kyle Trask. I thought he could be every bit as good as Trevor Lawrence and could get him for far less draft capital.

Based on how his season has gone, I think Trask very will be the 3rd QB taken (if not higher) and go in the top ten.

So my great plan is doomed.

[wab]

Maybe. It's pretty wide open after Lawrence and Fields.

[wab]

The good news is that this is turning into a surprisingly good QB class. A little top heavy, but 6 could go in R1.

[Moriarty]

Not surprised.
I was posting 2 months ago that I was afraid he might play his way from late 2 right past our R1 at ~20ish.

We'll see how it goes, but this team really needs to manage drafting more like late teens than mid 20s, to make the QB thing work.

[G08]

The good news is that this is turning into a surprisingly good QB class. A little top heavy, but 6 could go in R1.

Agreed. I think it'll be a Mac Jones (I don't love him in the first) if we stay put or we trade up to grab a kid.

[wab]

If Trask keeps playing the way he is, and Wilson holds onto the #3 spot...both Lance and Jones should be available outside of the teens.

[Grizzled]

When the season got started, I wanted us to go OL with our first pick and use the 64th pick in next year draft to land Kyle Trask. I thought he could be every bit as good as Trevor Lawrence and could get him for far less draft capital.

Based on how his season has gone, I think Trask very will be the 3rd QB taken (if not higher) and go in the top ten.

So my great plan is doomed.

The team is working themselves into the top 10. From there, they can swing for the fences and try to trade up higher if needed.

[Z Bear]

The Bears should be picking between 10 and 15 (which it is looking closer to 10 right now) , they should have their pick of Trask, Jones, or Lance (who I would stay away from). This team has too many holes to be trading up into the top 5, they need to keep all day 1 and 2 picks the next two years. Best hope would be to flip our 1 and a day three pick to move up a few spots for Wilson.

[wab]

If the Bears don't win another game, I think they are predicted to pick at 10. The Jets and Jax should go 1-2.

Washington
Miami f/HOU
Atlanta
Dallas
Cincinnati
NY Giants

Are all going in the top 10.

Bears would need some help to go higher. I suspect they will pick somewhere between 12 and 15.

[Z Bear]

But of those teams the Jets are the only guarantee to take a QB. I could see JAX passing on Fields and rolling with Minishew for two more years on his rookie deal. They have holes to fill all over and could take the best non-QB. Redskins would probably take a QB, but they might get ghosts of Ohio St QBs if Fields falls to them. None of the rest of that list will take a QB unless Dallas screws up Prescott. So you are looking at maybe 3 top 10 QBs taken. If the Bears are at 10 they could probably move up to 6 or 7 and get Wilson. Other teams in the draft talks already are the Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions. Of that list, really only the Broncos and Panthers might take a QB. A few of those teams could get hot and win 6 games too. I would be very surprised if 4 QBs are off the board when the Bears are on the clock.

[The Cooler King]

But of those teams the Jets are the only guarantee to take a QB. I could see JAX passing on Fields and rolling with Minishew for two more years on his rookie deal. They have holes to fill all over and could take the best non-QB. Redskins would probably take a QB, but they might get ghosts of Ohio St QBs if Fields falls to them. None of the rest of that list will take a QB unless Dallas screws up Prescott. So you are looking at maybe 3 top 10 QBs taken. If the Bears are at 10 they could probably move up to 6 or 7 and get Wilson. Other teams in the draft talks already are the Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions. Of that list, really only the Broncos and Panthers might take a QB. A few of those teams could get hot and win 6 games too. I would be very surprised if 4 QBs are off the board when the Bears are on the clock.

I could see Detroit and Atlanta going QB especially since Wilson and Lance are probably developmental guys. Stafford and Ryan are old enough they could think about succession (see: Rodgers/Packers). Granted they'll do that only if they fall in love with a guy... Won't be their first instinct, but it could happen.

You also have to think about trade ups. Also you left the Pat's off, who may be right around the Bears. I don't see why Minn for that fact, would shy away from a QB and they'll be picking around the Bears.

So I think there will likely be some competition shape up for that teir 2 of guys.

[wab]

The only way Jax passes on Fields in favor of Minshew is if they decide Sewell is a better prospect.

[The Cooler King]

The only way Jax passes on Fields in favor of Minshew is if they decide Sewell is a better prospect.

That and/or a RG3/Wentz trade offer type situation.

[alexwilkins]

My man was benched in the Cotton Bowl after 3 first quarter INTs. Second round just became a possibility again.

[crueltyabc]

There are lots of “his most recent and biggest game of his career don’t matter vs all his tape” takes out there if you still want to worry he’s going super early. You could buy in to that talk

[Moriarty]

There are lots of “his most recent and biggest game of his career don’t matter vs all his tape” takes out there if you still want to worry he’s going super early. You could buy in to that talk

I think "you shouldn't weight a game where 20+ players sit out, including FOUR top receivers, nearly as much as games where the whole team showed up" is a pretty reasonable take.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/12/31/d ... COVID%2D19.

[The Cooler King]

There are lots of “his most recent and biggest game of his career don’t matter vs all his tape” takes out there if you still want to worry he’s going super early. You could buy in to that talk

I think "you shouldn't weight a game where 20+ players sit out, including FOUR top receivers, nearly as much as games where the whole team showed up" is a pretty reasonable take.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/12/31/d ... COVID%2D19.

Perhaps it underscores that he's not a guy you'll build around. Still, if he can step in right away you have about 4 years of cheap rookie deal money to build a winner with. But likely a guy who you regret paging top 5-10 money to (Flacco, Cousins, type) after his rookie deal.

[Otis Day]

Is it the top notch talent making the QB look good or the QB making the top notch players look good?

How many U of Alabama QBs have performed well in the NFL? How many Ohio St QBs have performed well in the NFL? QBs from these 2 school are working with the cream of the crop talent, I just really don't have the answer, but it is something to think about.

Is the Lawrence kid also a product of playing with the best talent in the land? Will he be able to perform for the Jags?

I honestly don't know, just something I have thought about.

[wab]

Is it the top notch talent making the QB look good or the QB making the top notch players look good?

How many U of Alabama QBs have performed well in the NFL? How many Ohio St QBs have performed well in the NFL? QBs from these 2 school are working with the cream of the crop talent, I just really don't have the answer, but it is something to think about.

Is the Lawrence kid also a product of playing with the best talent in the land? Will he be able to perform for the Jags?

I honestly don't know, just something I have thought about.

Lawrence is legit. Clemson isn't chucking out a ton of first round offensive talent every year. Since Lawrence has been QB, the following offensive players have been drafted:

2018:
R6 - WR Deon Cain
R6 - WR Ray-Ray McCloud

2019:
R5 - WR Hunter Renfrow

2020:
R2 - WR Tee Higgins
R4 - OG John Simpson
R7 - OG Tremayne Anchrum

That pales in comparison to the guys that Fields and Jones have had to work with.

In the last 20 years, the Buckeyes have never had a QB with sustained success in the NFL. Terelle Pryor was probably the best, and he was only "good" later in his career.

Alabama has had similarly bad QB production in the NFL. The jury is still very much out on Tua.

[Otis Day]

Hell my thoughts go back to U of Florida as well. Danny Wuerffel, Rex. Neither had the career in the NFL that they had in college. Granted I avoid watching Alabama at all costs, but the talent Jones has around him, makes me wonder if he can also perform with less than the top talent.

Saw a few BYU games and that QB seems to be the goods.

[The Cooler King]

How many colleges have multiple star NFL QBs? Seems like it's a bad way to look at it, no matter what because successful QBs are few and far between.

[wab]

How many colleges have multiple star NFL QBs? Seems like it's a bad way to look at it, no matter what because successful QBs are few and far between.

I think it's a fair way to look at teams like Ohio State and Alabama given that they are two of the winningest teams over the last decade and they currently have two of the top 5 QB's entering the draft.

But, yeah. It's not like Alabama and Ohio State are churning out first round busts at QB every year.

Looking back on the recent QB history of these two teams, Tua and Haskins were really only the ones that anyone considered top 50 prospects.

[Z Bear]

Oklahoma is the only college that consistently turns out good QBs. But if you look at the top QBs in the league, most of them did not go to a powerhouse football school. The top QBs elevated their program for couple years.

Rodgers - Cal
Mahommes - TX Tech
Allen - Wyonming
Wilson - NC State/Wisconsin
Watson - Clemson*
Brady - Michigan*
Prescott - Miss St
Tannehill - TX A&M
Rivers - NC State
Murray - Oklahoma*
Herbert - Oregon
Jackson - Louisville
Ryan - Boston College
Carr - Fresno St
Mayfield - Oklahoma*
Brees - Purdue
Cousins - Michigan St
Stafford - Georgia*
Roethlisberger - Miami (OH)
Goff - Cal
Bridgewater - Louisville