QB Prospect Discussion: Trey Lance

[mmmc_35]

Pros
Top athlete at position. Built like WR, Runs like a RB.
Plus arm, can drive to al levels. Beautiful deep throws.

Cons
Small sample size, against lower competition
Drops eyes to run quicker then NFL QB

[Otis Day]

Just not feeling Lance at all. I have seen a few of his games on TV, he reminds me of a good athlete who plays QB. His inexperience also bothers me. The level of competition doesn't. There are great players in the FCS and he plays in the best conference in that division. I pass on him.

[thunderspirit]

Lance is such a hard eval for me. I get a Steve McNair vibe from him, but I'm just not sure how he translates.

According to several draft guys I trust, he can handle the mental part.

[Grizzled]

Way too few games for a proper evaluation. Too risky as a first round pick. Haven't the Bears learned anything from the Trubisky debacle?

[The Cooler King]

That's quite the highlight tape and I'm not even halfway through it.

He seems like he's a legit first round prospect, but needs seasoning and a playbook thats geared to his strengths. But if he drops out of the top 10, I think a strong case can be made for trading up from 20. 20 to 11 (jump SF, MIN, NE) would probably cost their second and then maybe a late pick or a pick swap.

[mmmc_35]

Trey Lance has elite traits I couldn't pass on him. If the mental aspects are there.

Obviously the interview portion of evaluation is very important for QBs. We have a past thread about Myers Briggs evaluations and QBs. While I agree the "personality types" are very subjective, I do believe the right personality is important. I think he has the right make up.

I rate him very high and think he has a chance to be there for Chicago as of now.

[IE]

I'm coming back around here on Lance, as some comments from Bear World imply they might make a splash by trading up in the draft versus FA. If so, the guys that could be within reach if they fall just a few notches are Fields and Lance. I like Fields a lot, but I might prefer Lance because I have this thing were I like competitive players that have a bit of a chip on their shoulder. I think it sticks with them forever and often leads to success. I'm not saying Fields doesn't have it - I love the way he came back and got revenge on Clemson this year on New Years. That was big time. I guess I wouldn't care which of these two guys the Bears picked as it's kind of a crapshoot on who ends up good and probably comes down to a lot of luck in where they land. I think Lance will play extremely well in Chicago.

Lance has been compared to Josh Allen, because of the small school hard running QB thing. And because he's considered a green prospect with an enormously high ceiling. But Lance's production is "less green" and just plain higher quality than Allen's at the point - and I see him as being less of a risk than Allen was (even though that worked out). The comp I'm preferring is Cam Newton. With Lance's completion %s being better but probably reflecting the quality of defense in his league. I like the comp because both only played one real full season of NCAA football, and represent serious dual threat. I see Lance as (more likely than not) being a 30 pass TD / 10 rush TD guy in the NFL.

So if the Bears do trade up to grab Trey, I'd be excited - even if I think they'd have to give up too much capital to do so. Maybe Pace sees that like I do, in that trading up to get a promising young QB and it probably buys both he and Nagy at least 2 more seasons.

[Atkins&Rebel]

Lance has been highlighted as having the most bust potential in the top 5 QB's on many platforms.

If Pace was choosing his first QB, and Nagy was a coach that obviously put his players in the best position to succeed, rather than emphasizing his system, I'd be fine with Lance.

At this point, I'd be surprised if we took Lance, and shocked if he "succeeded" here if pressed to start early. (success defined as efficiently operating an offense and protecting the football).

[Moriarty]

Lance has been highlighted as having the most bust potential in the top 5 QB's on many platforms.

Yeah, that's my thinking, too. Small school, 1 yr starter, at least a year younger than all the other QBs.

Yes, his physical traits give him a great ceiling, but his odds of hitting it are so much lower than even your typical R1 QB.

Unless he was amazing in interviews (schematically, mostly), I don't think I'm interested in rolling the dice, even at 20.

[wulfy]

Per Adam Hoge, Both Nagy and Pace are in North Dakota today for NDSU's pro day.

I suspect it could be more for Dillon Radunz (who I heard they loved at the Senior Bowl) than Trey Lance, but glad they are doing their diligence.

His verified measurements from today:
Ht: 6037
Wt: 224
Hand; 9 1/8 (on the smaller size)
Arm: 31 1/2
Wing: 76 3/4

[cblaz11]

Watched a full game of his yesterday....

Accuracy is a major concern and so is decision making...I have a feeling he slips into the mid to late teens. I just couldn’t justify taking him over a guy like Mac Jones even though Lance is a superior athlete.

[mmmc_35]

What game? Post the link.

[cblaz11]

Never should have thrown the first pass

Bad miss on the second pass...under pressure but the WR couldn’t be more open....

The first pass situation happens a lot..The guy was blanketed. Ball should have gone elsewhere

[Z Bear]

To be fair, that is probably his worst game as a starter. I do not like his throwing motion, he keeps the ball low then cocks back (very similar to Jameis Winston). He needs to keep the ball higher and just fire it.

[cblaz11]

Good to know...that’s the only full game I watched.

You have others I should watch?

[Z Bear]

He went undefeated with 42 TDs and 0 INTs the year before, so I would imagine all of those will look better.

[wab]

Lance is becoming my guy - with the caveat that he doesn't set foot on the field in 2021.

Assuming Lawrence/Wilson are gone, in order...

Lance
Jones
Fields
Mond
Davis

Trask and Ehlinger are my 4th or later round guys.

[Z Bear]

Fields
Jones
Lance
Trask
Mond

That is my pecking order

[G08]

Lance is becoming my guy - with the caveat that he doesn't set foot on the field in 2021.

This is where I'm at as well, as of 3/17/21. Has a Patrick Mahomes vibe to him.

Something about Justin Fields just bugs me... I don't know if it's that hitch in his throwing motion or what.


I'll dive more into these prospects before the draft.

[Z Bear]

Lance has a worse hitch that Fields. Trey keeps the ball low then really cocks back before firing.

[G08]

Lance has a worse hitch that Fields. Trey keeps the ball low then really cocks back before firing.

I didn't see that during his Pro Day...

[Z Bear]

watch the video posted above, his throw motion looks like Winston's to me.

[mmmc_35]

Never should have thrown the first pass

Bad miss on the second pass...under pressure but the WR couldn’t be more open....

The first pass situation happens a lot..The guy was blanketed. Ball should have gone elsewhere

Thanks. I actually had not seen his sole game from this year. Yes started off bad. I wish we had a full season to watch. That throw and drop at 10:55 though...

I think talent wise hes elite on multiple fronts.

[thunderspirit]

Lance is becoming my guy - with the caveat that he doesn't set foot on the field in 2021.

Assuming Lawrence/Wilson are gone, in order...

Lance
Jones
Fields
Mond
Davis

Trask and Ehlinger are my 4th or later round guys.

Fields
Jones
Lance
Trask
Mond

That is my pecking order

For me, its:
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills

Day 3 guys: Mond (likely overdrafted before then), Buechele, maybe Brady White.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Lance is becoming my guy - with the caveat that he doesn't set foot on the field in 2021.

Assuming Lawrence/Wilson are gone, in order...

Lance
Jones
Fields
Mond
Davis

Trask and Ehlinger are my 4th or later round guys.

Fields
Jones
Lance
Trask
Mond

That is my pecking order

For me, its:
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills

Day 3 guys: Mond (likely overdrafted before then), Buechele, maybe Brady White.

I just watched a bunch of video of Mills and I'm sold. My order would be;

Fields
Lance
Trask
Mills

If we could get Mills in the 3rd round, that would be a home run.

[EricTighe]

My list is simple right now.

Fields
Wilson

Nevermind in the first cause you reaching. Lance reminds me of Trubisky coming out. Jones only acted mature the last year in college, can a zebra change his stripes that fast?

There are later-round picks that I like as much as everyone else not named Lawrence, Fields or Wilson.

But a moot point as long as Nagy is in control of coaching them up.

[mmmc_35]

I dont agree with this guy but he has more credentials then I do.

https://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/2021/03/trey-lance-20/

[Z Bear]

That sounds like a scouting report on Trubisky!

[Otis Day]

While I am not a fan of Lance's, that seemed a little harsh. It is like the guy tried overly hard to be negative to get his name out there as the anti Lance. If Lance does bust this guy can capitalize on it. I am a big fan of FCS football and enjoy watching it more than FBS football. Saw Lance play about 3 games and he can be impressive but I never looked at him as a sure 1st rd guy. But, I don't know shit either. Hell I never thought Aaron Stecker (fellow WIU alum) would have a 10 yr NFL career.

[Yogi da Bear]

For me, its:
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills

Day 3 guys: Mond (likely overdrafted before then), Buechele, maybe Brady White.

I just watched a bunch of video of Mills and I'm sold. My order would be;

Fields
Lance
Trask
Mills

If we could get Mills in the 3rd round, that would be a home run.

I'm sold on Mills too. Like him better than Mond. His biggest criticisms were his injuries and he was too slow. Well, he just ran a 4.58 and 4.66 at his Pro Day to go with a 6.9 cone and a 4.37 shuttle. That's NOT slow by any stretch. Still, his injuries are a concern. He was the #1 QB recruit coming out of high school.

I'm looking at him in the second now.