Chicago Bears: Davis Mills, QB, Stanford

[thunderspirit]

Question is if he can improve/develop that (I'm of the opinion he can).

I think Mills has a lot to work with.

At the same time, there's no guarantee a player with physical gifts will develop. I like his chances, mind you; but like all draft picks (especially QBs), he's a calculated risk.

[wab]

WR at pick #20, Davis Mills at pick #52.

What say you?

IN ... but you HAVE to draft an OT in the 3rd. Maybe the kid who transferred from Michigan and went to Cincinnati whose name escapes me at the moment.

Hudson?

[Rusty Trombagent]

From the outside looking in, I like Mills. That said, the more I watch the more I’m concerned. He makes some really bad decisions with the ball. I don’t think he goes as early as some here think...I’m betting 4/5 round.

Yep, he also feathers the ball into the receiver too much, which allows for defenders to not only break up the pass but intercept it too. Needs to figure out how to maintain accuracy while keeping velocity.

Those touch passes won't fly with DBs that run 4.3-4.4.

Question is if he can improve/develop that (I'm of the opinion he can).

I dont have a very strong opinion either way, i'm pretty numb at this point, but like half of his highlight throws do very much feel like "in the pros, that would be deflected/picked off." Dude is definitely raw.

[Arkansasbear]

https://beargoggleson.com/2021/03/30/da ... ago-bears/

[wulfy]

IN ... but you HAVE to draft an OT in the 3rd. Maybe the kid who transferred from Michigan and went to Cincinnati whose name escapes me at the moment.

Hudson?

Yup- thanks

[wab]

Hudson?

Yup- thanks

Id assume he goes in the middle of R2. I think Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Jenkins.

[wulfy]

Question: Is Davis Mills worth a mid-round gamble?

Draft Network's answer:
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/da ... t-qb-class

In short ... Day 3, worth a swing, but likes other QBs traits better. Calls him a low floor prospect.

If you like pro size, accuracy from adjusted platforms, pre-snap recognition, and toughness, he’s probably your guy. With his little experience as a starter and elite recruiting background, it won’t be surprising to see NFL teams take a swing on him in Day 2, considering the potential for development still remaining.

But to present Mills as a solid gamble is more representative of the class than anything he’s put on film. You get better tools from Mond, dual-threat ability from Newman, and more consistency and experience from Trask. Each is a dart throw, and you can take which one you like—but unfortunately, neither Mills nor any of the other options really hold up relative to Day 2 quarterbacks of the past.

[IE]

All prospects are low floor prospects. But you gotta keep a queue of prospects churning through the org. This is a perfect example of doing that. If they don't pan out, you're out a middle round pick. If they do and you don't need them, you get pick appreciation. And maybe you get Russ Wilson or whoever. I think this is my preferred direction in the draft. I'd say no in the 2nd but that's a low 2nd rounder. Maybe package one of those 6ths or something to move up a bit in the 3rd?

[G08]

From Biggsy:

Mills is an interesting prospect and some evaluators I’ve spoken with say he’s very similar to Alabama’s Mac Jones. Obviously, Jones was surrounded by a ton more talent and played against greater competition at the highest level. But they’re built similarly, have similar traits and strengths and Mills has a bigger arm. If more than a couple teams feel this way about Mills — that he’s a solid prospect similar to Jones in some respects — he will be drafted later but I’m not sure he will be a “late-round pick” if that is what you are getting at. I think chances are good he is a Day 2 selection and you’re talking about a guy who has played in a pro-style offense, so that would be a major plus. He would be interesting if the Bears could add him to the mix while filling other needs as well. Some I have spoken with think he has more upside than Florida’s Kyle Trask or Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, guys you’ve probably heard a lot more about going back to last college season.

[Bears Whiskey Nut]

Everything you want to know about the kid.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/davi ... arterback/

Sleeper for only so long.

I'd take him mid day 2, maybe 4th round. Problem is, I don't think he lasts that long. I'll bet he goes mid 3rd round.

[wulfy]

I'd like to move up in the 3rd for him, but I think he'll be off the board before then (Carolina seems like a possibility).

I think if you want him, you have to draft him in the 2nd Round.

[G08]

I'd like to move up in the 3rd for him, but I think he'll be off the board before then (Carolina seems like a possibility).

I think if you want him, you have to draft him in the 2nd Round.

Yep, or in a trade down in the second.

He has a lot of the traits that, IMO, Matt Nagy wants in his QB:

Able to read defenses
Wants the offensive load put on his shoulders
Craves the opportunity to change plays/protections at the line based on what the defense is doing
Pocket presence/pocket passer
Throws with anticipation
Throws with accuracy
Throws with touch


He does have his warts, though. Kid put a lot of WTF throws "on tape" and is very inexperienced at the college level. I'm of the opinion that if we draft him, he had better be QB3 and inactive no matter what for all of 2021.

Sit and learn the offense, work on throws you can and cannot make when you're running scout team, etc.

Dude was a 5-star recruit and and #1 QB in his recruiting class. That doesn't happen by accident.

[crueltyabc]

He seems extremely OK to me. His highlights are like "here he is executing the offense". Apparently I want my college QBs doing something with their feet or making big throws on the run. I see a guy throwing from a clean pocket to an open receiver and I wonder how often he'll see that in the NFL. All of that said... he does seem like a Pace/Nagy guy to me

[Otis Day]

He seems extremely OK to me.

That is hilarious, no offense meant by that. Bears QB situation in a nutshell. Extremely OK.

[G08]

He seems extremely OK to me. His highlights are like "here he is executing the offense". Apparently I want my college QBs doing something with their feet or making big throws on the run. I see a guy throwing from a clean pocket to an open receiver and I wonder how often he'll see that in the NFL. All of that said... he does seem like a Pace/Nagy guy to me

I hear ya. What jumps out to me is his anticipation, he'll let the ball go before his receiver has even gotten out of his break (I'm talking 10-15 yards from where the ball ends up). He manipulates safeties well, etc.

Basically, he's the opposite of Mitch (non-athletic but knows how to read defenses at a high level).

If any of us could predict what will happen with these QBs, we'd be multi-millionaires; that being said, I think if you let him sit for a year to learn this system, work on testing throws with the scout team, you might have a solid starter.

[G08]

[crueltyabc]

Nagy gassing up his guys

[The Marshall Plan]

Shit.

We're going to overdraft one.

[Yogi da Bear]

Okay, I'm going to be the first to say this, but I like Mills much better than even Trey Lance. Lance reminds me just so much of Trubisky, with his hard flat trajectory and willingness to run. Mills is much more like Jones and Wilson who all throw with far more touch. But don't let the touch fool you. When Mills needs to zing it, he does.

The one criticism of Mills is his lack of experience. But in fact, he threw 438 passes to Mac Jones' 556. In fact, I'd argue that Mills was tested far more than Jones was. Jones was throwing to an assortment of 'Bama receivers who simply outclassed the DBs they face. You look at tape, and sometimes, you'll see ALL Of the 'Bama receivers wide open while Jones sits behind that 'Bama OL without a care in the world. Mills, on the other hand, is typically under a lot of pressure. Getting the ball off as soon as he gets hit to receivers with much smaller windows. And his touch on some of his deeper throws is just sweet. He's also gotta be the smartest QB in the draft.

I think if he went back another year, he'd be a Top 5 pick and maybe the first QB taken. Wouldn't mind over drafting him.

[thunderspirit]

I agree on Mills improving his stock with another year.

I don't agree on Mills over Lance.

But then, this is why there are different kinds of ice cream, so everyone can have their favorite.

[IE]

Then why, when I buy 4 different types of ice cream, do all these assholes eat my mint chocolate chip first? Only my preference is the right one - it is proved.

[G08]

[wulfy]

The UCLA game was Mills equivalent of Mitch's Sun Bowl and will be cited by whoever drafts him.

I like Mills a lot ... not more than any of the Top 5, but in my mind there are just as many questions about Trey Lance as there are with Davis Mills. I've read a few places that Mills has a "passable"/"adequate" arm .... I fundamentally disagree with that - he has a very good arm.

I'd be happy with Mills in the Second.

[G08]

The UCLA game was Mills equivalent of Mitch's Sun Bowl and will be cited by whoever drafts him.

I like Mills a lot ... not more than any of the Top 5, but in my mind there are just as many questions about Trey Lance as there are with Davis Mills. I've read a few places that Mills has a "passable"/"adequate" arm .... I fundamentally disagree with that - he has a very good arm.

I'd be happy with Mills in the Second.

He throws with so much touch that I personally wish I could see him fire 15-20 yard outs from the opposite hash with velocity, just to see what he's got in that arm of his.

[wulfy]

I've been racking my brain for a comp on Davis Mills .... closest I can come is Carson Palmer. Clearly Palmer had a higher pedigree coming out - but he throws a very similar ball.

[G08]

I've been racking my brain for a comp on Davis Mills .... closest I can come is Carson Palmer. Clearly Palmer had a higher pedigree coming out - but he throws a very similar ball.

I can see that... the negative Nancy in me sees a little bit of Kevin Hogan.

[wulfy]

I can see that too!

[crueltyabc]

I think my issue with him is that he looks like a guy demo'ing drills at a QB camp. It's the opposite of what you see from Lance, who looks like nobody has ever taught him what to do with his feet. Mills looks very "perfect" doing everything and that makes it look so vanilla. It's a weird critique but like... the greats in any world know when to go off script, and you can see their personality a little bit in their improvisation and "imperfection". Nagy has "Be You" on his playsheet but then he wants a football robot?

Where is there room for improvement, btw, if he already does everything right and he doesn't really dominate?

[G08]

Where is there room for improvement, btw, if he already does everything right and he doesn't really dominate?

Terrific question. I would say for him it would be more cerebral: execution, checking into the correct play based on what the defense is showing you, and learning when to put more on your fastball based on the size of the throwing window.

A concern I have is if he goes the other way and turns into a checkdown Charlie. I can't stand that shit.

[G08]

I've seen "Mac Jones with a stronger arm" thrown around by some beat writers after speaking with various scouts and team executives.

Could be nothing, could be something.