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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:04 am 
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I get what you're saying but your comparison between Sanders and Smith is a bit jaded IMO. Smith, while the grinder type also had pretty much a HOF OL, QB, WR and HC to support him and they were largely the reason why they won 3 Super Bowls. Sanders had no name QB's, average to below average OL (that he made look really good), Wayne Fontes and a Lions FO that didn't build a team around him to consistently compete, which is why he stepped away early. Swap teams for both players and Sanders would be a 3 time Super Bowl champion as well.

From a talent standpoint Barkley is a superior athlete to Howard and his skillset is far greater, but nobody knows how productive he'll be at the next level. Personally, I wouldn't pull the trigger on Barkley either. The Bears have bigger holes to fill and while the thought of taking BPA at the top of the draft is what teams strive for, it's nearly impossible to do when teams at the top of the draft are there for a reason - because they don't have a roster that can consistently compete. I posed this question/draft scenario to spark some discussion and it's interesting to see the differences in opinion on the situation.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:56 am 
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:
malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I probably wouldn't trade Howard, but Howard doesn't stop me from drafting a game changing RB. Howard's great at what he does, but what he does is limited and you don't shy away from grabbing someone who can do it all if he's available. To put it into relevant terms, Charcandrick West doesn't stop me from drafting Kareem Hunt. Chris Ivory doesn't stop me from drafting Leonard Fournette. McCallister coming off a great season, doesn't stop me from drafting Elliot.


What position in the top 20 for post merger rushing yards in their first two seasons stops you from drafting a replacement?

Are we out of our minds? Howard is 19th on the list of total yards in seasons one and two. That includes this past year where every man and his cat knew we were running.

Kareem Hunt's rookie year was almost identical bar for 150 receiving yards. Elliott is a court of hundred yards ahead in rushing. Fournette was touted as another future HoF back and didn't have as good a rookie year as Howard.

Do we remember drafting Cedric Benson for a Christ's sake!


I guess watching the games is in order...Hunt does things that Howard cannot. Just looking at their stats doesn't account for overall talent. If rookie year production counted for everything, Walter Payton wouldn't have been a HOF RB. Howard was the centerpiece of our offense, but that doesn't make him the best talent we can hope for nor does it make him irreplaceable.

And the difference between the top end RB talents that can do everything and Cedric Benson makes mentioning him silly. The guy we're talking about specifically in Barkley, is being comped to Barry Sanders on the NFL scouting page. I find that comp a bit ludicrous personally, but Benson would normally not be mentioned in the same sentence as Sanders unless you're contrasting what to look for in a RB.


Watching the games, that's a novel suggestion, much obliged.

Hunt does things that Howard can't, Howard does things that Hunt can't. But let's break down what you posted. You implicitly compared Howard to Charcandrick West, Chris Ivory and Darren McFadden (presuming you meant McFadden rather than McAllister).

West: <1000 yards in his 4 year career.
Ivory: 1 1000 yard season in his 8 year career.
McFadden: 2 1000 yard seasons in his 10 year career.

Howard: 2 1000 yard seasons in 2 years.
Howard: 19th in yards post merger in first 2 seasons.
Howard: 3rd in yards since drafted.

Your comparison to West, Ivory and McFadden isn't the best.

Then look at the replacements that you're looking at. Elliott, Fournette and Hunt.

Elliott: 200 yards rushing and receiving more than Howard. All from a monster 1st season. 7 more rushing touchdowns is significant but we'll see how often he replicates 15 rushing touchdowns each year. Still, amazing player.
Hunt: 14 extra yards rushing over rookie Howard and at fewer yards per clip. 157 yards more receiving with a much better catch %.
Fournette: Fewer yards on more carries in rookie year. 4 more yards receiving.

Oh, and Howard has had a much, much, worse offence to operate in.

The reason I bring up Benson is, pretty obviously I would have thought, we had a good back in Thomas Jones and drafted a replacement that went to shit. Benson clearly wasn't compared to Sanders but was compared to other good players, as are loads of highly regarded prospects. Will Barkley be good? Quite possibly. Will he better than Howard? That's a bold statement!


You can't say that you're watching these players, then compare them based solely on their stats, and expect me to care what you have to say. Sorry. Especially when you ignore all the situational stats that tell a different tale (like when Howard rushed against 8 in the box his average drops to one of the lowest among starters) Howard gets the job done but isn't the same athlete. Howard isn't a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. Even if you have similar stats, you take the homerun threat every time.

And Benson wasn't a homerun threat either so his comparison isn't just laughable it's plain stupid. Yes it was stupid to take him over Jones, but every time we suggest we replace a starter with a rookie someone brings up Benson like its completely taboo to replace a decent player with a blue chip draft pick.

My comparison to McFadden (thanks for correction), West and Ivory is perfect because they are all about the same skill and athleticism. McFadden is still a bit fast, but not like he was before injuries. West is a bruiser with surprising lateral quickness and Ivory is about the same but a better receiver out of the backfield.


In case we're discussing two separate points, if your argument is that you want a different kind of player to Howard, a "homerun" threat and believe that to be separate for how good they are in general then let me know as it isn't something I'm concerned about.

You can't completely ignore statistics when comparing players. I stated in my previous post that Hunt and Howard do different things but, in the whole, statistics provide a good indicate of general efficacy.

Two quick points

1. I'd really prefer it if you didn't presume I'm not arguing in good faith. A) What would be the point. B) I don't see anything in my posts to give that impression. Why do bring this up?

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
Especially when you ignore all the situational stats that tell a different tale (like when Howard rushed against 8 in the box his average drops to one of the lowest among starters)


Is it not more likely that I've missed or not dug deep enough to bring out those stats? Stating that I'm ignoring them implies I've seen them and am leaving them out as they don't support my argument.

2. If you have data that adds to your argument please present it or link to it. You mention Howard's ypc dropping against 8 in the box. Ok, so give me the data so I can check to see if I believe it to be relevant or, heaven forfend, change my views!

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.

Hunt is more of a homerun threat than Howard but if we compare their rookie years (full disclosure, Howard's rookie year is better than last year but given our game planning this season I believe this to be reasonable) we get the following.

2017 Hunt. 11 TDs, 7 from 5 yards or fewer. The other 4 being 35, 53, 69, 78. The latter is from a reception.
2016 Howard. 7 TDs, 6 from 9 yards or fewer. One receiving TD at 21 yards.

Non TD stats.

Hunt. 12 20+ yard runs. 3 40+.
Howard. 10 20+ yard runs. 2 40+.

So the homerun threat element is valid. Those 3 50+ yard TDs from Hunt are unlikely to come from Howard but other than those, what do the 20+ yard runs look like.

Hunt. Average of 20+ runs = 33.6.
Howard. Average of 20+ runs = 33.8.

What about the ones that don't go for 20 or more.

Hunt. Average of runs <20 yards = 3.6.
Howard. Average of runs <20 yards = 4.0.

It seems to me that "watching the games" has led you to believe that 3 long touchdowns make Hunt a game changer and Howard, well, not a game changer. There's a reason I like stats.

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
My comparison to McFadden (thanks for correction), West and Ivory is perfect because they are all about the same skill and athleticism.


Athleticism counts for nothing if it doesn't bring production and that's why your assertion that McFadden, West and Ivory have the same skill as Howard. That's manifestly false.

Lastly, to make this explicitly clear. I'm not comparing Benson to Barkley. I'm just making the point that highly rated prospects don't always work out. You did mention Fournette who, coming out, wasn't that dissimilar to Benson. But either way, remember when Reggie Bush got compared to Barry Sanders?

There are no can't miss prospects in the draft.
We've already got a very good running back.
Running backs aren't highly valued in the draft.
The opportunity cost of drafting into what might be out best position group is high.

Oh, and the probability of us drafting Barkley is about zero. That said, for precision, I'm happy to discuss how many significant figures we'd need to go to before it raised above zero.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:45 am 
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malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
malk wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I probably wouldn't trade Howard, but Howard doesn't stop me from drafting a game changing RB. Howard's great at what he does, but what he does is limited and you don't shy away from grabbing someone who can do it all if he's available. To put it into relevant terms, Charcandrick West doesn't stop me from drafting Kareem Hunt. Chris Ivory doesn't stop me from drafting Leonard Fournette. McCallister coming off a great season, doesn't stop me from drafting Elliot.


What position in the top 20 for post merger rushing yards in their first two seasons stops you from drafting a replacement?

Are we out of our minds? Howard is 19th on the list of total yards in seasons one and two. That includes this past year where every man and his cat knew we were running.

Kareem Hunt's rookie year was almost identical bar for 150 receiving yards. Elliott is a court of hundred yards ahead in rushing. Fournette was touted as another future HoF back and didn't have as good a rookie year as Howard.

Do we remember drafting Cedric Benson for a Christ's sake!


I guess watching the games is in order...Hunt does things that Howard cannot. Just looking at their stats doesn't account for overall talent. If rookie year production counted for everything, Walter Payton wouldn't have been a HOF RB. Howard was the centerpiece of our offense, but that doesn't make him the best talent we can hope for nor does it make him irreplaceable.

And the difference between the top end RB talents that can do everything and Cedric Benson makes mentioning him silly. The guy we're talking about specifically in Barkley, is being comped to Barry Sanders on the NFL scouting page. I find that comp a bit ludicrous personally, but Benson would normally not be mentioned in the same sentence as Sanders unless you're contrasting what to look for in a RB.


Watching the games, that's a novel suggestion, much obliged.

Hunt does things that Howard can't, Howard does things that Hunt can't. But let's break down what you posted. You implicitly compared Howard to Charcandrick West, Chris Ivory and Darren McFadden (presuming you meant McFadden rather than McAllister).

West: <1000 yards in his 4 year career.
Ivory: 1 1000 yard season in his 8 year career.
McFadden: 2 1000 yard seasons in his 10 year career.

Howard: 2 1000 yard seasons in 2 years.
Howard: 19th in yards post merger in first 2 seasons.
Howard: 3rd in yards since drafted.

Your comparison to West, Ivory and McFadden isn't the best.

Then look at the replacements that you're looking at. Elliott, Fournette and Hunt.

Elliott: 200 yards rushing and receiving more than Howard. All from a monster 1st season. 7 more rushing touchdowns is significant but we'll see how often he replicates 15 rushing touchdowns each year. Still, amazing player.
Hunt: 14 extra yards rushing over rookie Howard and at fewer yards per clip. 157 yards more receiving with a much better catch %.
Fournette: Fewer yards on more carries in rookie year. 4 more yards receiving.

Oh, and Howard has had a much, much, worse offence to operate in.

The reason I bring up Benson is, pretty obviously I would have thought, we had a good back in Thomas Jones and drafted a replacement that went to shit. Benson clearly wasn't compared to Sanders but was compared to other good players, as are loads of highly regarded prospects. Will Barkley be good? Quite possibly. Will he better than Howard? That's a bold statement!


You can't say that you're watching these players, then compare them based solely on their stats, and expect me to care what you have to say. Sorry. Especially when you ignore all the situational stats that tell a different tale (like when Howard rushed against 8 in the box his average drops to one of the lowest among starters) Howard gets the job done but isn't the same athlete. Howard isn't a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. Even if you have similar stats, you take the homerun threat every time.

And Benson wasn't a homerun threat either so his comparison isn't just laughable it's plain stupid. Yes it was stupid to take him over Jones, but every time we suggest we replace a starter with a rookie someone brings up Benson like its completely taboo to replace a decent player with a blue chip draft pick.

My comparison to McFadden (thanks for correction), West and Ivory is perfect because they are all about the same skill and athleticism. McFadden is still a bit fast, but not like he was before injuries. West is a bruiser with surprising lateral quickness and Ivory is about the same but a better receiver out of the backfield.


In case we're discussing two separate points, if your argument is that you want a different kind of player to Howard, a "homerun" threat and believe that to be separate for how good they are in general then let me know as it isn't something I'm concerned about.

You can't completely ignore statistics when comparing players. I stated in my previous post that Hunt and Howard do different things but, in the whole, statistics provide a good indicate of general efficacy.

Two quick points

1. I'd really prefer it if you didn't presume I'm not arguing in good faith. A) What would be the point. B) I don't see anything in my posts to give that impression. Why do bring this up?

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
Especially when you ignore all the situational stats that tell a different tale (like when Howard rushed against 8 in the box his average drops to one of the lowest among starters)


Is it not more likely that I've missed or not dug deep enough to bring out those stats? Stating that I'm ignoring them implies I've seen them and am leaving them out as they don't support my argument.

2. If you have data that adds to your argument please present it or link to it. You mention Howard's ypc dropping against 8 in the box. Ok, so give me the data so I can check to see if I believe it to be relevant or, heaven forfend, change my views!

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.

Hunt is more of a homerun threat than Howard but if we compare their rookie years (full disclosure, Howard's rookie year is better than last year but given our game planning this season I believe this to be reasonable) we get the following.

2017 Hunt. 11 TDs, 7 from 5 yards or fewer. The other 4 being 35, 53, 69, 78. The latter is from a reception.
2016 Howard. 7 TDs, 6 from 9 yards or fewer. One receiving TD at 21 yards.

Non TD stats.

Hunt. 12 20+ yard runs. 3 40+.
Howard. 10 20+ yard runs. 2 40+.

So the homerun threat element is valid. Those 3 50+ yard TDs from Hunt are unlikely to come from Howard but other than those, what do the 20+ yard runs look like.

Hunt. Average of 20+ runs = 33.6.
Howard. Average of 20+ runs = 33.8.

What about the ones that don't go for 20 or more.

Hunt. Average of runs <20 yards = 3.6.
Howard. Average of runs <20 yards = 4.0.

It seems to me that "watching the games" has led you to believe that 3 long touchdowns make Hunt a game changer and Howard, well, not a game changer. There's a reason I like stats.

Atkins&Rebel wrote:
My comparison to McFadden (thanks for correction), West and Ivory is perfect because they are all about the same skill and athleticism.


Athleticism counts for nothing if it doesn't bring production and that's why your assertion that McFadden, West and Ivory have the same skill as Howard. That's manifestly false.

Lastly, to make this explicitly clear. I'm not comparing Benson to Barkley. I'm just making the point that highly rated prospects don't always work out. You did mention Fournette who, coming out, wasn't that dissimilar to Benson. But either way, remember when Reggie Bush got compared to Barry Sanders?

There are no can't miss prospects in the draft.
We've already got a very good running back.
Running backs aren't highly valued in the draft.
The opportunity cost of drafting into what might be out best position group is high.

Oh, and the probability of us drafting Barkley is about zero. That said, for precision, I'm happy to discuss how many significant figures we'd need to go to before it raised above zero.


Relying on stats to paint the whole picture is something too many people do. Stats are a basic metric that we can start a discussion, but they don't tell the whole story. Otherwise we'd only argue stats for every draft pick and free agent, ignoring how they were used, what the scheme was, what their athletic measureables are (the combine matters right?).

My accusation is that by comparing simply on production stats (and running stats only...part of the case for Barkley is his receiveing threat), that you completely ignore situational stats, O line ability, athleticism, usage (Hunt wasn't featured for 1/3 of the year...maybe he was hurt? But his production dipped mid way until late november...does that mean Hunt isn't as good or that KC abandoned the run too often when they went into a team wide slump)

I don't believe that you are being maliciously duplicitous...but I am challenging to compare everything they do not just who go how many rushing yards for the season.
what's the 3rd and short % for a 1st down?
whats the dropped pass rate?
yards after the first hit?


Also instead of saying that keeping Howard and drafting Barkley will fail because...Benson
Lets look at what the Saints were able to do with Ingram and Kamara

I think a 1-2 punch of Howard and Barkley would be hard for teams to deal with...then you sneak Cohen out there and that's a huge head ache for DC's to deal with.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:59 am 
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I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7q0cczrr9U (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:12 pm 
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that is comically nitpicky


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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:27 pm 
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7q0cczrr9U (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.


How many of the guys with breakaway speed do you think break the tackle there? The Ravens bottle us up well and most backs get stuffed on that play. I'm genuinely incredulous that you'd use that as an example.

The other bits I'll have to get back to later.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:13 pm 
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Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7q0cczrr9U (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.


So you want someone who not only breaks that tackle but has the juice to take it to the house in the same play?

Adrian Peterson's don't grow on trees, man.

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:16 pm 
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G08 wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7q0cczrr9U (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.


So you want someone who not only breaks that tackle but has the juice to take it to the house in the same play?

Adrian Peterson's don't grow on trees, man.


Not comparing Barkley to Peterson, but doesn't Barkley break tackles and take them to the house on the same play fairly consistently at the collegiate level?

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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:23 pm 
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DaSuperfan wrote:
G08 wrote:
Atkins&Rebel wrote:
I'll point to a single play:
week 6 vs Baltmore in overtime.

Howard run left on a zone stretch...picking his way. He gets hit and the Baltimore guys goes for the strip and Howard breaks free into the defensive secondary...no one between him and the endzone but he gets caught after a 53 yard scamper down the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7q0cczrr9U (3:20 mark)

I want a guy who when he breaks free, more times than not, it's a TD.


So you want someone who not only breaks that tackle but has the juice to take it to the house in the same play?

Adrian Peterson's don't grow on trees, man.


Not comparing Barkley to Peterson, but doesn't Barkley break tackles and take them to the house on the same play fairly consistently at the collegiate level?


Last I checked, lots of guys did that in college. Remember most of these guys are lucky to face a defense with 2 or 3 nfl players on it. On Sunday they are all NFL players.


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 Post subject: Re: Draft Scenario
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:27 am 
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The problem with this scenario in my view is... Why would a team with a top flight WR trade them? And if they would, then you have to ask yourself why would they let them go, so what are you really getting? It's like talking about FAs. You see tape and stats, but you don't see the person inside. And from what I see, I really like Jordan Howard the guy. So he's a plus guy from that perspective as well as his skills and productivity. What you're getting might not be so good as a locker room guy or from a work ethic perspective.

Trading Howard away just seems to have a high potential to be a losing proposition and low potential for us getting the better end of the deal. If Barkley is THAT good, then teams needing a RB will want to move up for him. That's the type of deal that would be more appealing to me.

The talk that RBs won't get picked high is poppycock. Yes, I understand the value of that position had dropped in the last 10 years. But that didn't stop Fournette from getting picked top 5 last year. If a player has elite skills that meet a bad team's needs, they'll go for that.

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