2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

College football and the NFL Draft

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UOK
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:55 pm

Hiphopopotamos wrote:We just drafted a guy in Fitts who was literally injured in every game he did (and mostly did not) play at Utah.

Ugh.
He may as well retire and Pace should probably be lined up and shot for wasting a precious, invaluable 6th round pick on this obvious bust.
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Hiphopopotamos
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:00 pm

UOK wrote:
Hiphopopotamos wrote:We just drafted a guy in Fitts who was literally injured in every game he did (and mostly did not) play at Utah.

Ugh.
He may as well retire and Pace should probably be lined up and shot for wasting a precious, invaluable 6th round pick on this obvious bust.

I didn’t say he was a bust - seemingly he has a ton of potential - but this kid has literally been injured every time he steps on a football field.

I think I would have rather spent the pick on a high upside kid who can stay on the field but needs more coaching/focus.
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G08
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:04 pm

Kid has some nice bend/burst though...
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wab
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:04 pm

Fitts was a top 10 reqruit. I’d say he has potential.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:05 pm

Fitts easily outplays his draft position if he stays healthy. Big if, but worth the risk in the 6th.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:07 pm

Hematite wrote: worth the risk in the 6th.

Tell that to all these buffoons on twitter and around the Bears intertronz who are furious that Pace isn't drafting obvious 16-game starters/Pro Bowlers in rounds 6 and 7. You'd think he'd cut the throats of their children when he took Iggy in the 4th.
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:11 pm

NFL Network giving Pace love for this draft. Guess Hub should let them know that their love for ‘3rd round talent’ Balil Nichols.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:19 pm

UOK wrote:
Hematite wrote: worth the risk in the 6th.

Tell that to all these buffoons on twitter and around the Bears intertronz who are furious that Pace isn't drafting obvious 16-game starters/Pro Bowlers in rounds 6 and 7. You'd think he'd cut the throats of their children when he took Iggy in the 4th.
Wait until he misses on that future Hall of Famer in the 7th round! :frustrated:
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:04 pm

Packers got St. Brown. Damn.
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The Marshall Plan
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:10 pm

I love this draft. Love it.
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wab
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:18 pm

Overall I’m a big fan of how it played out.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:55 pm

Me too. I think Pace has done an outstanding job in the main. I confess to being a bit nervous about our lack of pass rush though. But I wonder whether they might try to bring back Houston or Young on a 1 year deal and then address edge rusher properly in FA or the draft next year. I'd certainly ask Young to go fishin' again for us in a heartbeat, 32 yrs old or not.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:27 pm

wab wrote:Fitts was a top 10 reqruit. I’d say he has potential.
If we want to be lazy we can say Kylie Fitts, when compared to Harold Landry:

Taller
Heavier
MUCH stronger
similar 10 yard split
exact same shuttle
exact same cone


Key to this dude is staying healthy, but shit I'll roll the dice on someone like this in round 6 every single time.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:09 am

I posted my drafts earlier in the thread, here is what I ended up with.

1. OLB - Marcus Davenort

2a. OLB - Harold Landry

2b. C - James Daniels

4. RT - Will Richardson (needs work but with HH he should be able to compete for RT next year when Massie is gone)

Traded our 5th No. 156 and No. 226 from the Broncos

5. [156] - WR - Equanimeous St Brown (physical mismatch that gets to work on getting bigger/stronger to take full advantage of his physical gifts)

6. QB - Alex McGough (physically very similar to Tru, I have a 4th grade on him. I think he gets to work and if Tru gets hurt in 2019 or beyond we get to keep basically the same offense for him to hold the fort down)

7a. WR Marcell Ateman (another big body WR, I see a guy who is pretty similar to Allen Robinson and can play the X in time.)
7b. [226] - OL - Jordan Mailata (6'8", 345 pounds, and ATHLETIC frame. Dude has almost no bad weight and ran the 40 in something like a 5.09 or something, showed good movement in the mirror drill.I put him in as a blocking TE if we get a big lead to protect Shaheen and Burton (fuck Sims), a goal line FB, PATs, and let HH develop a physical freak for a year or two. This guy has LT traits and ability, and Jonathan Ogden size. Plus throw him in on trying to block PATs and FGs. Just get him on the field when his size is an advantage.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:11 am

G08 wrote:
wab wrote:Fitts was a top 10 reqruit. I’d say he has potential.
If we want to be lazy we can say Kylie Fitts, when compared to Harold Landry:

Taller
Heavier
MUCH stronger
similar 10 yard split
exact same shuttle
exact same cone


Key to this dude is staying healthy, but shit I'll roll the dice on someone like this in round 6 every single time.
His numbers are pretty similar to Soloman Thomas actually. Thomas was the superior athlete, but sure as hell doesn't just leave Fitts in the dust.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:21 am

Love this draft. I didn't think Roquan would be there for us at 6 - he was one of the top 3 non-QB players in this draft and we got him.

I had Anthony Miller in most of my mock draft simulations. He's an excellent pickup and should be an immediate contributor.

Balil Nichols looks like an FCS steal. Everything I've found from his East/West performance says that he didn't look out of place at all despite the step up in competition. Huge kid with elite measureables.

Wasn't a fan of the Fitts pick just because of the injury history - but if they can figure out a way to keep him healthy... He could be a player.
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wab
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:09 am

IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:01 am

britbear wrote:Me too. I think Pace has done an outstanding job in the main. I confess to being a bit nervous about our lack of pass rush though. But I wonder whether they might try to bring back Houston or Young on a 1 year deal and then address edge rusher properly in FA or the draft next year. I'd certainly ask Young to go fishin' again for us in a heartbeat, 32 yrs old or not.
Still want for McPhee to have restructured but I'll be disappointed if we don't get Houston back now.

Really happy with the draft in general though, only one head scratcher and I love the potential upside from Fitts and Wims in the 6th and 7th, why not swing for the fences.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:27 pm

wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:40 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:
wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
Miller was pretty commonly considered a second rounder in mocks and player projections.

Daniels is stronger than Whitehair coming out of college. You’re hammering on that for no apparent reason.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:44 pm

No he isn't. Bench press and play strength are very different. I am not hammering him, he could be very good. He needs to dread lift and box squat like a mother trucker and stay healthy.
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:46 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:
wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
Daniels is stronger than Grasu.

Miller was WR2 on many draft boards.

But continue with your role.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:57 pm

wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Agreed. Smith and Daniels speak for themselves. The more I watch of Miller the more I agree with your assessment.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:10 pm

Hiphopopotamos wrote:
mmmc_35 wrote:
wab wrote:IMO the Bears got three 1st round players with their first three picks.
Then your high. Miller was a third rounder. You could make the case second, but this draft didn't have first round talent at WR like that.

Daniels was a second round talent and could be very good. He has a pretty big hole in his game with strength. As Grasu about that.
Daniels is stronger than Grasu.

Miller was WR2 on many draft boards.

But continue with your role.
Yes on many boards he was. On many he was a third. If you watch him you would probably put him in a 2/3rd category. I went with the latter.

Daniels does hold the point better then Grasu but still needs to get better. At Center I believe he will be really good.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:33 pm

I know this is way too late, but I just read an incredibly interesting study performed by highly respected analytics professor Case Massey (U of C, Yale, Harvard) and Nobel prize winning economist Richard Thaler on the NFL draft trade value chart and NFL draft trades in general.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgment and decision making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strong economic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research

Basically, trading up in the draft or trading away draft picks was proven to be incredibly irrational behavior. Trading down is almost always the right move, no matter what the trade value charts add up to.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:37 pm

I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:42 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
I find it really interesting that player surplus values actually go up the further you go down in the 1st round. The #32 pick is more valuable than the #1 pick.
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2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:41 pm

Explains why there was no trade. Smith was the Bears’ guy...

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/991 ... 06752?s=20
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:47 pm

BR0D1E86 wrote:Explains why there was no trade. Smith was the Bears’ guy...

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/991 ... 06752?s=20
Their guy could have been Chubb or Nelson. He said he made those calls as he was negotiating with Denver. Pace was inquiring aboot trading up as well.
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Re: 2018 NFL Draft // Rolling Thread

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:55 pm

mmmc_35 wrote:I have read skimmed that. 5th rounds for everyone. I think his premise makes sense, but should be incorporated with talent levels. Sure Hunter Hillenmyer was successful to a degree but he couldn't hold Urlachers jock.
Yeah, I agree that the premise makes sense (i.e., more chances are almost always better), but even with numerical grades the evaluation of talent is inexact, and practically speaking playmakers win games, and playmaking is hard to quantify.
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