I feel my cynicism melting away

[dplank]

Here's my very detailed talent assessment of our roster

QB - Deficient
RB - Excellent
WR - Good to Very Good
TE - Extremely Deficient
OL - Deficient

DL - Excellent
LB - Excellent
DB - Very Good

K/P - Good

[BreadNCircuses]

1) You missed my point about what they should emulate about the Patriots. It's not an eternal quest for the best coach in the game. It's an eternal quest to be the best organization and one that demands quick competence. That starts with the ownership demanding topflight performance and being willing to fire their way into landing an excellent GM who then gets a topflight coach, gradually builds a great Personnel Dept and a championship quality roster.

I didn't miss that. I would argue that, outside of firing the ownership, they have been pretty active in the search for an excellent GM (I would make the case that Pace is a good and getting better one, and you only get rated as excellent over time.

The only thing I disagree with is the idea that you can keep firing people quickly and expect to get better quality -- that's just not realistic.

2) It isn't year 2. It's year 5 going on 6 for Pace.

I was referring to Nagy with the year two reference.

3) My opinion is that several GMs could have done as well or better than Pace has. As far as his QB record goes, you can spin it any way you want, but most people would agree that he's blundered handling the position, big time. Even much maligned Jerry Angelo said that getting the QB position right was the most important task a GM has, outside of getting a HC.

Great. Enjoy your opinion. I would argue that across his 5 years so far, Pace has performed better than at least 25 other GMs in the NFL. We could both be correct, so let's operate from that position -- unless you have a plan for hiring one of the 6 GMs who has performed better than Pace (all currently employed in good situations), that doesn't buy anything.

SO it comes down to the issue of QB. Sure. And as I discussed earlier, I consider the Glennon signing a pure smokescreen, they knew they were going to draft a QB, they were trying to decide which one, but I find it unreasonable for anyone to hinge a judgement on the one decision (Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky), especially in light of the continued growth and development of the guy he did pick. As I said, expanding the evaluation window to account for the small number of games started in college seems not only prudent but necessary.

4) Strawman alert. I never "raked Nagy over the coals" about Trubisky who was selected when he wasn't there. But he did enthusiastically take the job and one of the chief components was to develop the QB. The QB hasn't been developed well. That's obvious. But that's on the slow pupil also.

I wasn't speaking just to you. You're one of many people with similar opinions, I was addressing a range of those opinions, yours being one of several. It's not a straw man, it's just not a point directed at you, but directed to a number of others who hold that view. In short, my post wasn't all about you.

5) So I guess by your definition Belichick isn't a long term thinker, because he isn't patient--he's demanding. As for Trubisky, we see him differently. I posted my thoughts on his game in the sticky thread at the top of the Forum, so no reason to repeat myself. Sure, the Bears could turn it around if certain people in the organization do their job better. But I prefer to look at the competition not just the Bears in isolation. I like several other teams' prospects better than the Bears. Better organizations with better people in key positions.

Belicheck is both a long term thinker and a demanding one. He's smart to know some guys take time to develop, for example, this year's 1st round pick ended the year with 12 receptions. I doubt Belicheck sees that as a mistake, he knew when he picked him that he was going to spend most of year one inactive or deep in the developmental depth. A key to Belicheck's success has been through a long history of finding middle round guys and developing them over time to fill a role, and doing it consistently, so when a guy outperforms and the patriots elect to let him go hit the open market, they have a pipeline of guys they've been developing to be ready to step forward.

For the record -- I didn't read your stickied thread at the top of the forum. Your opinion simply doesn't matter enough to me for me to go digging around to see what you thought in some other post. Feel free to quote it here if you'd like, and I'll read it, but otherwise, I don't care what you've said in any other exchange than the one we're having right now -- you're just another ghost in the ether.

[IE]

I'm remaining cynical for 2 reasons the I believe are justified by a preponderance of evidence. Not "W/L record" or "stats in year X compared to Y"... but things I've seen easily enough of to have a reasonably informed opinion and would need to see change in order to change that opinion.

1. I believe that Matt Nagy, while talented and a pretty good leader, may be too stubborn to win - or win consistently. I generally respect people who really care about the means, and agree that oftentimes the ends do not justify the means.... but not in football. Just win, baby. If you need to use a fullback, you use a friggin fullback. I believe a certain type of offense and certain ways of successful passing are pretty solidly a religion to Matt Nagy, and he will likely default to that faith at our expense. I will remain cynical about Matt Nagy until he proves otherwise.

2. With Mitch Trubisky I believe the differing opinions come down to "the promise of development" versus "innate skill set". Promise is alluring, and hope springs eternal. But I never form opinions based on hope. I believe it is very clear that he is not a "natural QB", no matter how much experience he has or doesn't have. He IS a natural great athlete - so in theory he could learn the right motions and mechanics over time, and internalize them until they become habit even under duress. But in practice I actually can't remember that ever happening too often, or of really many examples of where an athlete became a really elite passing QB. I keep coming back to Jim Harbaugh as the best example of an athlete in a QB role... and he topped out at around average. Tannehill could be another. Actually Eli is probably another example of a guy who was not natural (in spite of his bloodline) but had some great moments obviously. I think that is a great example to keep in mind this has nothing to do with whether I believe the Bears can win with Mitch. I really do. But see #1 here - he must be used right, and his strengths emphasized and weaknesses mitigated. So I'll remain skeptical of Mitch's future BECAUSE of Nagy and as a coach/QB duo with Nagy... until proven wrong.

[UOK]

Maybe we can agree that Pace is a very good salesman?

It appears that we're destined not to agree on much.

[Drone7]

--You still miss the point. So by now I shouldn't expect you to understand. I don't believe the Bears have had a demanding, competent organization for quite a while. Apparently, you are satisfied with product and direction.

--Aware you meant Nagy. But I steered it back to where the discussion should be. On Pace. Because the GM is the most important person on the football side.

--Pace is one of the 6-7 best evaluators in the game? I doubt it.

--As far as the Strawman alert goes...name someone that holds Nagy responsible for Trubisky? Most people I've read might question whether he has reached Trubisky or played to his few strengths, but few if any blame Nagy for Trubisky's disappointing play.

--So we won't agree on Belichick's approach. He is not only a much better evaluator than anyone the Bears have, but also much more demanding about improvement and performance.

As for the QB debate. I'm not going to repost opinions someone has expressed no or grudging interest to read. You seem interested in nurturing Trubisky. I'm more interested in putting better players around him, including pitting genuine competition against him for the first time in his career. Asap.

[Drone7]

Here's my very detailed talent assessment of our roster

QB - Deficient Need genuine competition in the room
RB - Excellent Pretty good, but not excellent. Want to see how Monty comes along this year. They could use a better #2 back with speed and power. Cohen is talented, but made too many mental errors this past season--more of a gadget player
WR - Good to Very Good. ARob's excellent. Question marks about all the others. They need more speed for this O.
TE - Extremely Deficient
OL - Deficient Below average OTs, no RG

DL - Excellent
LB - Excellent (will be interesting to see what they do with some players that might leave)
DB - Very Good Good. I wasn't bowled over with the 1 year rental, Dix. Not a fan of Bush. They might move on from Prince.

K/P - Good. Punter getting better. Not sold on the PK, so they should pit him against the best they can reasonably bring in

[Drone7]

Maybe we can agree that Pace is a very good salesman?

It appears that we're destined not to agree on much.

We'll see what happens. You're intelligent and you don't pull rank which you're entitled to, so we're cool.

[Drone7]

--You still miss the point, Breads. So by now I shouldn't expect you to understand. I don't believe the Bears have had a demanding, competent organization for quite a while. Apparently, you are satisfied with product and direction.

--Aware you meant Nagy. But I steered it back to where the discussion should be. On Pace. Because the GM is the most important person on the football side.

--Pace is one of the 6-7 best evaluators in the game? I doubt it.

--As far as the Strawman alert goes...name someone that holds Nagy responsible for Trubisky? Most people I've read might question whether he has reached Trubisky or played to his few strengths, but few if any blame Nagy for Trubisky's disappointing play.

--So we won't agree on Belichick's approach. He is not only a much better evaluator than anyone the Bears have, but also much more demanding about improvement and performance.

As for the QB debate. I'm not going to repost opinions someone has expressed no or grudging interest to read. You seem interested in nurturing Trubisky. I'm more interested in putting better players around him, including pitting genuine competition against him for the first time in his career. Asap.

[UOK]

--You still miss the point. So by now I shouldn't expect you to understand.

Message boards, gotta love em!

I don't believe the Bears have had a demanding, competent organization for quite a while. Apparently, you are satisfied with product and direction.

I believe it could be infinitely worse, and I also don't live in the utopian fantasy where the Bears are sold to competent ownership in my lifetime. The alternative is that Ted Phillips retires/passes away and some other football savant is hired, in which case I guess hope exists of aforementioned utopia. I'm accepting of the current product until there's demonstrative incompetence at a level so barren that the foundation of the current administration needs to be washed away.

--Aware you meant Nagy. But I steered it back to where the discussion should be. On Pace. Because the GM is the most important person on the football side.

--Pace is one of the 6-7 best evaluators in the game? I doubt it.

I think he's top 15 or thereabouts, and for the moment that's acceptable. Team should re-evaluate in another 1-2 years.

--As far as the Strawman alert goes...name someone that holds Nagy responsible for Trubisky? Most people I've read might question whether he has reached Trubisky or played to his few strengths, but few if any blame Nagy for Trubisky's disappointing play.

I think you missed a great deal of the season here. The game threads are ripe with contempt for Nagy. Several on this board are not fans at all, many more at best are critical of his development and gameplanning, among other things. Once the 2020 season gets rolling and if things go south, I think you'll find this board much more critical than at this point of the offseason.

--So we won't agree on Belichick's approach. He is not only a much better evaluator than anyone the Bears have, but also much more demanding about improvement and performance.

Winning one Super Bowl, much less several, affords you that kind of flexibility and deference.

As for the QB debate. I'm not going to repost opinions someone has expressed no or grudging interest to read. You seem interested in nurturing Trubisky. I'm more interested in putting better players around him, including pitting genuine competition against him for the first time in his career. Asap.

As are we all.

It appears that we're destined not to agree on much.

We'll see what happens. You're intelligent and you don't pull rank which you're entitled to, so we're cool.

Thanks! Yeah, I'm not THAT much of a bastard.

[Drone7]

Sorry about the double post, UOK. I meant to edit and add "Breads" just to make plain it was a response to Breads because of intervening posts. Not sure I can delete the iteration if someone else posts after. Maybe you can?

As for being hard on Nagy. I have more confidence in his development than I do Pace's or Trubisky's. He was served some humble pie this past season, so we'll see what the product looks like next. I haven't called for his firing. He's a work in progress.

[Drone7]

Sorry about the double post, UOK. I meant to edit and add "Breads" just to make plain it was a response to Breads because of intervening posts. Not sure I can delete the iteration if someone else posts after. Maybe you can?

As for being hard on Nagy. I have more confidence in his development than I do Pace's or Trubisky's. He was served some humble pie this past season, so we'll see what the product looks like next. I haven't called for his firing, which always seems silly from a fan. He's a work in progress.

[BreadNCircuses]

--You still miss the point. So by now I shouldn't expect you to understand. I don't believe the Bears have had a demanding, competent organization for quite a while. Apparently, you are satisfied with product and direction.

No, I don't "Miss the point" -- I disagree with your opinion and the conclusions drawn from that opinion. You haven't made any factual point here.

If you wanted to further the conversation, you could attempt to add further details supporting your opinion in an attempt to persuade me that your perception of the situation is more accurate than I currently observe it to be. That's how a mature discussion evolves.

--Aware you meant Nagy. But I steered it back to where the discussion should be. On Pace. Because the GM is the most important person on the football side.

So you were aware that I was purposefully referring to one person, but then attempted to correct me as if I was in fact referring to another person. That, quite literally, is a straw man, since you're not addressing what I was actually saying. This is weak sauce on your part.

--Pace is one of the 6-7 best evaluators in the game? I doubt it.

So again, we're stating opinions here. You think X, I think Y. And, given that we don't know each other, neither of us have demonstrated any reasons for why we should treat the other's opinion as any more than noise in the wind.

Consider that the GM's job does involve talent evaluation, but that is not the sole part of their job. Let's agree it's the most important part and take this beyond simply stating opinions, let's try and add some metrics here:

I saw this post previously that at least attempted a metric-based approach. I won't quote the entire post, but I'm going to quote the methods piece and you can click through and read the rest. I thought it was quite good, I'd be curious to see what changes you would propose to his methods
https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comme ... ryan_pace/

Data
Pulled the AV of every pick for every team over the 2015-2018 drafts, and compared that against the AV of Pace's picks by round and in total.
Overdrafting / under drafting is determined by subtracting a draft picks rank by AV in their draft class by their pick number.
i.e. Eddie Jackson has the 8th highest AV of the 2017 draft class and was drafted #112. (8 - 112 = -104). Eddie was under drafted by 104 picks, and is considered a "GEM".

When analyzing each pick against the AV rank in their respective draft class, the verdict on the pick is graded as follows:
Bust = overdrafted by 75-300 picks
Bad = overdrafted by 51-75 picks
Below Average = overdrafted by 26-50 picks
Average = overdrafted by 25 picks to under drafted by 25 picks
Above Average = under drafted by 26-50 picks
Good = under drafted by 51-75 picks
Gem = under drafted by 76-MAX LIMIT picks

Rule 1: A player with 0 AV who was not overdrafted will not be considered to be lower than below average.
Rule 2: A player with 0 AV who was not overdrafted, and currently on the active roster will not be considered to be lower than average.

So that's this guy's approach, which seems at least a reasonable approach to attacking the question. His conclusion using this methodology

"I know Pace gets knocked for all the trade ups, but he has generated top 6 value over his tenure with the bears despite trading up so often and lowering his pool of picks available. As noted above, despite having the 6th least draft picks over the 4 year span and a major bust at #7 overall, Pace has still generated the 6th most value of any team drafting over the 4 year span. Also interesting that the only team with a higher AV per draft pick is the Saints, where Pace spent years before becoming the Bears GM."

--As far as the Strawman alert goes...name someone that holds Nagy responsible for Trubisky? Most people I've read might question whether he has reached Trubisky or played to his few strengths, but few if any blame Nagy for Trubisky's disappointing play.

Ahh the old "name somebody" challenge, along with an undefined "most people I've read" claim.

Let's start with Dan Orlovsky https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/11/ ... -trubisky/

Or Zack Willis https://www.sportscasting.com/bears-coa ... n-chicago/

Or Parker Hurley https://beargoggleson.com/2019/09/06/ch ... -trubisky/

Or Jeff Hughes https://dabearsblog.com/2019/nagytrubisky

There's been plenty of digital ink spilled on that question, with plenty of blame pointed at Nagy. Agree or disagree with it, but it's certainly there.

--So we won't agree on Belichick's approach. He is not only a much better evaluator than anyone the Bears have, but also much more demanding about improvement and performance.

More like I don't agree that your understanding of Belichick's approach is sufficient It's simply not so simplistic that you can boil it down to "oh he's demanding" -- any professional coach is demanding, they're detail oriented, they demand performance. There's more going on than those simple adjectives.

As for the QB debate. I'm not going to repost opinions someone has expressed no or grudging interest to read. You seem interested in nurturing Trubisky. I'm more interested in putting better players around him, including pitting genuine competition against him for the first time in his career. Asap.

That's cool. You do you, boo. I'll say this --- when I read professional journal articles, written by people whose job it is to create knowledge, it's understood that not every reader of one's current paper has, will, or can go back and re-read everything else one has previously said on the topic, so in the course of making one's current argument, it's the responsibility of the writer to summarize or restate one's prior argument to the new audience.

But I understand those are experts in their fields, who take communication seriously, vs some random dude on an internet forum who thinks what they've previously written in other threads is so valuable and genius that it is beneath them to restate or even directly quote their previous words in a new conversation with a new person.

In short, get over yourself.

[Drone7]

That's a lot of work you put in. Maybe someone else will want to take you on. But I don't believe we'll get anywhere discussing.

I need to get over myself? Some might read your arrogant comments and conclude you're the one that needs an attitude adjustment. But that's your business.

I doubt anyone here is a football expert, so let it ride.

[The Marshall Plan]

Here's my very detailed talent assessment of our roster

QB - Deficient
RB - Excellent
WR - Good to Very Good
TE - Extremely Deficient
OL - Deficient

DL - Excellent
LB - Excellent
DB - Very Good

K/P - Good

QB - Below Average.
RB - Monty - Very promising. Others - Pathetic.
WR - Above Average.
TE - Dogshit.
OL - Dogshit.

DL - Pretty good.
LB - Average. Mack disappeared. Roquan got hurt. Danny got hurt. Floyd sucks. Kwit stepped up bigly.
DB - A little above average.

K/P - Acceptable.

[wab]

Everyone that brings up the Pats ability to "evaluate" need to look no further than their draft history over the last several years. Having the best QB to ever play in the NFL masks a lot of faults.

[BreadNCircuses]

Everyone that brings up the Pats ability to "evaluate" need to look no further than their draft history over the last several years. Having the best QB to ever play in the NFL masks a lot of faults.

[dplank]

Everyone that brings up the Pats ability to "evaluate" need to look no further than their draft history over the last several years. Having the best QB to ever play in the NFL masks a lot of faults.

Not to mention the greatest HC and defensive coach IMO of all time. It's tough to base any thoughts on that franchise, they are such an outlier.

[wab]

--Aware you meant Nagy. But I steered it back to where the discussion should be. On Pace. Because the GM is the most important person on the football side.

--Pace is one of the 6-7 best evaluators in the game? I doubt it.

I think he's top 15 or thereabouts, and for the moment that's acceptable. Team should re-evaluate in another 1-2 years.

I think it's hard for us fans to understand that the goal of an NFL team isn't really "SUPER BOWL OR BUST BABY" every season. It's building a team that can be competitive and be in a position to win more games than it loses.

If you can do that as an organization, you can stay above water and hopefully you can catch the magic that takes you to the championship a couple of times.

That's what Pace is doing. Building a team that can win games and be competitive. So to that end, I think he's done a great job.

The goal of building a Patriots style dynasty is unattainable and only sets fans up for disappointment.

[Drone7]

I think he's top 15 or thereabouts, and for the moment that's acceptable. Team should re-evaluate in another 1-2 years.

I think it's hard for us fans to understand that the goal of an NFL team isn't really "SUPER BOWL OR BUST BABY" every season. It's building a team that can be competitive and be in a position to win more games than it loses.

If you can do that as an organization, you can stay above water and hopefully you can catch the magic that takes you to the championship a couple of times.

That's what Pace is doing. Building a team that can win games and be competitive. So to that end, I think he's done a great job.

The goal of building a Patriots style dynasty is unattainable and only sets fans up for disappointment.

This is going to be hard to explain, I guess. I don't expect any team to replicate what the Pats have done for the past 2 decades. That was an incredible run.

I disagree with those that don't respect their ability to evaluate and manage draft capital though. They usually draft down low so the talent pool isn't as full with blue and red chip players so to speak, but they still have managed to churn their roster well. Comp picks, a lot of trade downs or "trade outs" into subsequent years, so they manage a good "net" draft infusion. And they are also adept at finding temporary fills from cuts and FAs, then getting those players up to speed quickly in their systems. But the core of what I meant earlier is that they are tough evaluators of their own players and demand they hit performance standards or they get rid of them. Players aren't sentimentalized or clung on to like so many other franchises seem to do. They are replaceable cogs in a machine.

As for Pace, I readily admit that I likely won't forgive the Trubisky trade-up. That was flat-out botched and revealed several mistakes on his part. The Wiederer article in the Trib on what went wrong detailed the miscues fairly well.

He seems to evaluate a lot better on the D side than the O side. What disturbs me now on the O--aside from players that need to be upgraded--is they are a finesse team that's soft.

Anyway, there are several teams whose prospects look better for playoff and SB contention. I would probably feel better if I had more confidence in the starting QB, but he seems to be a slow learner (on the field).

[BreadNCircuses]

Ok, so regarding this statement: "Players aren't sentimentalized or clung on to like so many other franchises seem to do. They are replaceable cogs in a machine."

Which players on the Bears current roster have been sentimentalized or clung onto?

Outside of Trubisky, which by your own admission you're never going to forgive that decision (and also, anyone making the decision to draft someone with 13 college starts has to expect a longer development period), who would you say the Bears have clung onto unreasonably here?

Leonard Floyd wouldn't qualify for that yet, we've picked up the 5th year option but haven't given a big extension, but that might be a candidate to watch. Not Adrian Amos or Bryce Callahan, obviously. Bobbie Massie, at the end of last season, was considered the best available RT going into Free Agency, and we made signing him a priority -- and this year he struggled with injuries. They renegotiated Long's deal in hopes he'd be able to be full-go this year after years of injuries, and looks like moving on this year.
Not Christian Jones. We'll see this year if Taylor Gabriel gets released or traded, arguably keeping him at the current contract is over-paying, but he'll still be making less than Patterson this year. We obviously didn't sentimentally hang onto Jordan Howard but instead got what value we could in the last year of his rookie deal.

Outside of Trubisky, which again, should be viewed as a long-development window player, who have the bears hung onto for sentimental reasons?

[Richie]

At least they started the season off letting us know what we were in for. No soul-crushing late season choke from our guys.

Up front.

I appreciated that.

I don't know. They rallied to win the next three and two were quite dominating. All were quite dominating defensively and our offense actually showed up in the Washington game.

I personally thought the GB game was an outlier at that point and it wasn't until the New Orleans game that I actually went "oh, shit".

October through early November was a brutally sobering month. To me, that period was just as bad as a late season choke.

[Richie]

Ok, so regarding this statement: "Players aren't sentimentalized or clung on to like so many other franchises seem to do. They are replaceable cogs in a machine."

Which players on the Bears current roster have been sentimentalized or clung onto?

Outside of Trubisky, which by your own admission you're never going to forgive that decision (and also, anyone making the decision to draft someone with 13 college starts has to expect a longer development period)

I don't want to make this about Trubisky because there is enough of that. But good lord... the guy has 41 NFL starts and 3 years behind him. When is the "13 college games" excuse going to stop being used to kick the can down the road? What's enough? lol. He's about to be a 4th year veteran.

[UOK]

When is the "13 college games" excuse going to stop being used to kick the can down the road? What's enough? lol. He's about to be a 4th year veteran.

Really 2020 is THE year for Trubisky. If he has a start like he did in 2019 and you have a backup quarterback that's not a glorified position coach, he'll be benched.

These are big years for Nagy and Pace, but not as big as it is for #10. It sucks because the guy could go to his next team and really find his groove, but the Bears as a franchise will have no other choice but to move on. Once you cripple the guys confidence with a performance benching, his tenure is essentially over.

A lot of people, myself probably included, said that once Trubisky was drafted that this was the make-or-break horse Pace was tying his cart to, and if Trubisky crashed and burned, Pace would as well.

Yet it's a little more complicated than that. Emery giving Cutler a bigass extension was symbolically the same thing, yet it wasn't the main reason he got fired - he poisoned the locker room with Trestman and Marshall, exiled Urlacher, burned bridges with Briggs and Tillman, and took chances on guys like Allen and Houston that turned into catastrophes. In short, he pissed a lot of people off.

Pace has restored sanity and dignity to Halas Hall, and the McCaskeys really, really like him (by all accounts). It lets the McCaskeys and Phillips do their "big picture" shit and not be the faces of the day to day football stuff that they are absolutely and admittedly unqualified to handle.

He's young, he's still growing as a league executive, and he's done well enough in the draft, free agency, and coaching hires to merit his position for the short term future. When you have all these things going for you, particularly for a franchise as conservative and stubborn as the Bears, it's unlikely for them to burn the whole shit down again unless they feel like there is a fundamental crisis occurring within the locker room.

[BreadNCircuses]

Ok, so regarding this statement: "Players aren't sentimentalized or clung on to like so many other franchises seem to do. They are replaceable cogs in a machine."

Which players on the Bears current roster have been sentimentalized or clung onto?

Outside of Trubisky, which by your own admission you're never going to forgive that decision (and also, anyone making the decision to draft someone with 13 college starts has to expect a longer development period)

I don't want to make this about Trubisky because there is enough of that. But good lord... the guy has 41 NFL starts and 3 years behind him. When is the "13 college games" excuse going to stop being used to kick the can down the road? What's enough? lol. He's about to be a 4th year veteran.

Let me ask you this -- what does a typical development curve look to you for most players? How does that change for a QB?

It wasn't that long ago where it was considered normal to withhold evaluation of a player until the end of their 3rd or 4th season, and that it was generally accepted that players at any position who were only 1-year starters in college were farther behind developmentally than multi-year starters. It doesn't seem unreasonable to me to think that a guy with 70 starts under his belt is more likely further along developmentally than a guy with 40 starts under their belt, before any discussion of quality of coaching, system fit, etc.

My overall opinion of year 1 of Trubisky, starting 12 games in a scheme that seemed outdated for the modern NFL is that the system hamstrung him but he showed promise in spite of it.
Transitioning to an entirely different system in year 2, he was farther behind than someone who had gotten to play in the same system both years. That seems like a relatively uncontroversial point, right? Year 2, but Year 1 in Nagy's offense, he showed development, but he also showed that he was thinking too much (again, to be expected in a new system with limited experience), so again, what's the learning curve look like given those changes?

Year 3, year 2 in Nagy's offense, Trubisky took steps both forward and back, and caught a lot of the blame for things outside his control (especially regression on the line, but also less consistency in the run game and more dropped passes). Positive things to look at include bringing his Interception % down (from 2.8% in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019). There were certainly downsides to his play and the offense overall, but I saw development.

None of the above seems unreasonable to me, but the longer I pay attention to the average fan, the less reasonable the average fan seems to me. Given my previous belief that in most cases, you're not going to begin to evaluate success/failure of a QB until end of 3rd season, and for QBs with significantly less college experience, you extend the development and evaluation window 1 more year to end of 4th season, I'm still very comfortable, based on the development I've seen, going into 2020 with Mitch as the unquestioned starter, because I think this is the most important year evaluation-wise. Hopefully he continues to take steps forward every week and we're back in the playoffs competing for a championship next year.

But if not? Ok, he's not the guy, give Nagy another chance with another QB in 2021 (or 2022 if the Bears are willing to ride Trubisky's 5th year option for one more year to evaluate).

People thought Tannehill was a bust. People who knew how to watch offensive lines knew that the fault was probably more on the line (and some inept coaching) than it was on him, and surprise surprise, he goes to a team with a better line and running game and catches fire and now people are reevaluating Tannehill.

Then again, maybe I'm too patient and believe too much in developmental curves.

[Mikefive]

When is the "13 college games" excuse going to stop being used to kick the can down the road? What's enough? lol. He's about to be a 4th year veteran.

Really 2020 is THE year for Trubisky. If he has a start like he did in 2019 and you have a backup quarterback that's not a glorified position coach, he'll be benched.

These are big years for Nagy and Pace, but not as big as it is for #10. It sucks because the guy could go to his next team and really find his groove, but the Bears as a franchise will have no other choice but to move on. Once you cripple the guys confidence with a performance benching, his tenure is essentially over.

A lot of people, myself probably included, said that once Trubisky was drafted that this was the make-or-break horse Pace was tying his cart to, and if Trubisky crashed and burned, Pace would as well.

Yet it's a little more complicated than that. Emery giving Cutler a bigass extension was symbolically the same thing, yet it wasn't the main reason he got fired - he poisoned the locker room with Trestman and Marshall, exiled Urlacher, burned bridges with Briggs and Tillman, and took chances on guys like Allen and Houston that turned into catastrophes. In short, he pissed a lot of people off.

Pace has restored sanity and dignity to Halas Hall, and the McCaskeys really, really like him (by all accounts). It lets the McCaskeys and Phillips do their "big picture" shit and not be the faces of the day to day football stuff that they are absolutely and admittedly unqualified to handle.

He's young, he's still growing as a league executive, and he's done well enough in the draft, free agency, and coaching hires to merit his position for the short term future. When you have all these things going for you, particularly for a franchise as conservative and stubborn as the Bears, it's unlikely for them to burn the whole shit down again unless they feel like there is a fundamental crisis occurring within the locker room.

Pretty well stated.

Have to say though...
These playoffs have been a huge downer for me.
- Watson in the Divisional playoffs.
- GB... who pretty well handed it to us twice this year... got destroyed in the NFCC game.
- Mahomes goes to the SBowl.
- Garappolo goes to the SBowl. Say what you want about him... But we could've had him for a R2 selection and we would've had a top 3 R1 selection to utilize elsewhere. Yeah, he barely had to show up in the NFCC game. But he's better than what we have now.

Woof.

[wab]

If a Bears QB only threw 8 times in a playoff game, people would be talking about how the team doesn't trust him to win and how they should find someone who can actually throw the ball so it doesn't all fall on the running game because of how unsustainable that is...

[BreadNCircuses]

If a Bears QB only threw 8 times in a playoff game, people would be talking about how the team doesn't trust him to win and how they should find someone who can actually throw the ball so it doesn't all fall on the running game because of how unsustainable that is...

Very true. Also, let's see if Jimmy G can hang with Mahomes

As a pure fan, I'm very interested in seeing this Super Bowl play out. Somewhere, Alex Smith is having complicated feelings over it, though.

[dplank]

Wab, at least appreciate this irony: as cynical as some Bears fans are about the team, you are equally cynical about Bears fans. If anyone is at all critical, you jump their shit. Allow room for thoughtful criticism, it’s healthy.

[crueltyabc]

We had key long term injuries this year to very expensive players - the most expensive in their position group:

Hicks - 5%
Burton - 4%
Trevathan - 4%
Long - 3%

I can't find anyone who has compiled this particular stat so we can compare to other teams, but I've been thinking about it when thinking about how I evaluate Pace. You can only have so many expensive players in a position group, so if your expensive guys get hurt and you don't hit on the cheap guys, you're in trouble. So in sum, Pace is an idiot for thinking that Coward and Braunaker were adequate depth, but otherwise did a good job.

Our interior DL depth was a bit of a miracle and a credit to Pace's roster building. Cheap young players and castoff Nick Williams held up fairly well. Similarly, ILB. Kwit and some no-names filled in very well at ILB.

The opposite was true at TE and OG. I would say our RG was the worst Bear on the field for the whole season. This has to be improved for sure, and Pace has already hit (in my opinion) on two interior OL guys. I can't say I have any faith in his ability to spot TE talent but I did really like Burton for the first half of the 2018 season so fingers crossed on that I guess?

The 2020 Bears need to solidify TE, OG, ILB, CB, and SS next year along with the existing talent. Those guys might be on the team or might not. I like the coaching hires so I'll be watching these positions through the offseason and training camp but it feels doable. Two second rounders, two FAs, and one guy stepping up from the current roster would do it. Then we just need Trubisky to be average or better...

[wab]

Wab, at least appreciate this irony: as cynical as some Bears fans are about the team, you are equally cynical about Bears fans. If anyone is at all critical, you jump their shit. Allow room for thoughtful criticism, it’s healthy.

I'm nothing if not consistent.