Mitch Trubisky & General Quarterback Banter

[UOK]

One could argue that "behind and playing catchup" is pretty much where he should be, considering he barely played in college, wasted his rookie year tutoring under Mike Glennon, Mark Sanchez, and Dowell Loggains, had a major shoulder injury, and has a crisis of confidence on an hourly basis as people will eternally compare him to Mahomes and Watson.

I'm not saying Trubisky will develop to or exceed their level, but he needs time. Problem with the Bears is that their window is currently open, and closing fast, so you have to decide if the patience is worth risking wasting the primes of several great players around the roster.

And rolling with Mitch is definitely a pragmatic decision for 2020 if for no other reason than the Bears are limited in resources to upgrade the position, let alone the other holes. So, I agree let's give him another whirl and hope he is a late developer, but G08 has tried to spin this system BS before and make Mitch's development look normal and it's just patently false. Other QBs in the Reid scheme have done just fine picking it up and seeing positive play fairly quickly.

I don't think anyone can really say with too much confidence that one quarterback's development is equal to another. Some may pick things up faster or slower, but each requires a different puzzle of elements, including their own gumption.

[crueltyabc]

Except at the moment, Dalton isn't affordable. He's going to cost a pick and come with a significant cap number.

You're right, I'm assuming that
1. Nobody wants to trade draft picks for the right to pay Andy Dalton $17m to play like Andy Dalton
2. Dalton doesn't want to hold a clipboard for Joe Burrows
3. No team that actually wants a week 1 starter wants Andy Dalton to be their week 1 starter because he's Andy Dalton
4. The Bears want Trubisky to be their week 1 starter
Do you disagree with any of those??

[BamaBear09]

BamaBear09 great posts and valid points. Regarding Wentz, I will point to his 2019 "regression" and look at his total production in this offense (92.7 rating). I'm not saying a QB rating is the end-all-be-all, it's just a quick and lazy way to offer a metric while I'm on the shitter posting this (you're welcome for the image ).

As for how much time I give him? 3 years in the same system has always been my default when it comes to QBs. Both Nagy and Childress have said it takes 5 years to truly master THIS scheme (Alex Smith put up career numbers his 5th year in this offense) but we don't live in a patient world.

If it's me, I do everything I can to support the kid this year in terms of protection, run game, and a legit TE. If he shits the bed, cut bait and draft / acquire his replacement for 2021. That kid should then walk into a developed offense, rather than one that is being built on the fly.

The only thing I really don't agree with here is the waiting... with the Mack trade, Pace kinda put the team into win now mode and he may have screwed up his own plan... because at that point the guy who needs time was pushed into fast forward... and in year 1 he showed promise... and then in year 2, with everyone waiting for the step forward, he kinda stepped back... and I know the oline regressed and in such the running game failed again... and I feel like his early season struggles sort of put the team into an indifferent mode through the middle of the season and I believe that is what lead to the drops and the penalty issues... what worries me about him is does he need everything around him to be perfect for him to get to a baseline of average?

I mean we have seen the flashes... and damn I do love watching him carve up Detroit, not sure what black magic he has there as Detroit was one of only two teams to hold Mahomes TD-less... hopefully a solid TE will open things up for Cohen again... but I just don't see them waiting throughout the entire year... I mean this team last year with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over from the first Minny game is a playoff team...

[IE]

That context around QBR is helpful and explains perfectly why the QB-only stats that sort along with it are dramatic outliers to the low side while that measure of the overall team (QBR) and situational stuff is high. Mitch's QBR from '18 was a measure of the team not him.

There was that other article that then used that QBR presence of Mitch to rate his performance under pressure (one of many stats that roll into QBR, I understand) against other high-QBR QBs. That analysis measured the delta in performance between low-pressure to high pressure situations, and declared him tops because his % delta was highest and notably positive implying he was better under pressure. But again measuring the delta didn't really justify saying he was at the top. Top QB performance was good in both low and high-pressure situations, resulting in smaller delta. Mitch did perform decently under pressure, but no so well with less pressure. He still didn't compare with the performances of top QBs in raw performance under pressure or less pressure.

Stats are fun.

[IE]

I mean we have seen the flashes... and damn I do love watching him carve up Detroit, not sure what black magic he has there as Detroit was one of only two teams to hold Mahomes TD-less... hopefully a solid TE will open things up for Cohen again... but I just don't see them waiting throughout the entire year... I mean this team last year with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over from the first Minny game is a playoff team...

Detroit's pass defense was one of the worst in the league, and I think you know that Detroit wasn't really stopping Mahomes. He threw for 318 and ran for 56 against the Lions, and they had 3 short rushing TDs after good drives. If KC didn't have like 4 fumbles they would have won by 30.

Mitch's success being limited to Lions-like teams is more of a question about him than evidence of promise. The one good team he beat this year (the Cowboys) had a really strange home/away schizophrenia this past season (that made me quite a bit of money once the patter had established itself).

[crueltyabc]

QBR, and other stats (DVOA, too) that incorporate rushing yards by the QB, are favorable for Mitch in 2018. I think the eye test matches - he was better when he was also a running threat. He kept drives alive and worried defenders.

[G08]

BamaBear09 great posts and valid points. Regarding Wentz, I will point to his 2019 "regression" and look at his total production in this offense (92.7 rating). I'm not saying a QB rating is the end-all-be-all, it's just a quick and lazy way to offer a metric while I'm on the shitter posting this (you're welcome for the image ).

As for how much time I give him? 3 years in the same system has always been my default when it comes to QBs. Both Nagy and Childress have said it takes 5 years to truly master THIS scheme (Alex Smith put up career numbers his 5th year in this offense) but we don't live in a patient world.

If it's me, I do everything I can to support the kid this year in terms of protection, run game, and a legit TE. If he shits the bed, cut bait and draft / acquire his replacement for 2021. That kid should then walk into a developed offense, rather than one that is being built on the fly.

The only thing I really don't agree with here is the waiting... with the Mack trade, Pace kinda put the team into win now mode and he may have screwed up his own plan... because at that point the guy who needs time was pushed into fast forward... and in year 1 he showed promise... and then in year 2, with everyone waiting for the step forward, he kinda stepped back... and I know the oline regressed and in such the running game failed again... and I feel like his early season struggles sort of put the team into an indifferent mode through the middle of the season and I believe that is what lead to the drops and the penalty issues... what worries me about him is does he need everything around him to be perfect for him to get to a baseline of average?

I mean we have seen the flashes... and damn I do love watching him carve up Detroit, not sure what black magic he has there as Detroit was one of only two teams to hold Mahomes TD-less... hopefully a solid TE will open things up for Cohen again... but I just don't see them waiting throughout the entire year... I mean this team last year with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over from the first Minny game is a playoff team...

I understand that the waiting part sucks, especially because the defense is built to win now, but it is what it is. Mack is under contract for 5 more seasons so it's not as if he is going anywhere. Do we give up on Trubisky too early, like the Dolphins did with Tannehill? I'd hate that more than anything and would rather give him 2020 to show improvement/development.

I don't think Mitch Trubisky is a QB who is going to put you on his back and win games single-handedly for you -- especially right now. Can he develop into that as he grows in this offense and in his understanding of reading coverages? Maybe, but none of us really know that right now. Some can say 'no' and others can say 'I hope so'.

I see no reason why he can't be a Jimmy Garoppolo type in the league... but that is the furthest thing from what we are running schematically in Chicago. If I'm Pace and Nagy, I fortify the offensive line, ensure a commitment to the run game, and do everything I can to acquire a top-tier TE that this offense so desperately requires.

[wab]

Except at the moment, Dalton isn't affordable. He's going to cost a pick and come with a significant cap number.

You're right, I'm assuming that
1. Nobody wants to trade draft picks for the right to pay Andy Dalton $17m to play like Andy Dalton
2. Dalton doesn't want to hold a clipboard for Joe Burrows
3. No team that actually wants a week 1 starter wants Andy Dalton to be their week 1 starter because he's Andy Dalton
4. The Bears want Trubisky to be their week 1 starter
Do you disagree with any of those??

Assuming that he's released due to his massive cap number, yes, I agree. I believe he makes a ton of sense under those circumstances. I would not however, trade a pick for him and take that cap number on.

[dplank]

@G08...I don't agree with the sentiment that the Dolphins gave up on Taneyhill too soon. I think he wasn't fitting in to what they were doing when they had to make that decision so they moved on, it's a different thing. It's relevant because I think we're in the same situation with Mitch. I think Mitch is a bad fit for Nagy's offense, who may "turn it around" if he got to another team that played an offense more tailored to his strengths. Kyle Long said roughly the same thing, I think he's right.

It just feels to me like Pace needs to decide between Mitch and Nagy.

[BamaBear09]

I understand that the waiting part sucks, especially because the defense is built to win now, but it is what it is. Mack is under contract for 5 more seasons so it's not as if he is going anywhere. Do we give up on Trubisky too early, like the Dolphins did with Tannehill? I'd hate that more than anything and would rather give him 2020 to show improvement/development.

I don't think Mitch Trubisky is a QB who is going to put you on his back and win games single-handedly for you -- especially right now. Can he develop into that as he grows in this offense and in his understanding of reading coverages? Maybe, but none of us really know that right now. Some can say 'no' and others can say 'I hope so'.

I see no reason why he can't be a Jimmy Garoppolo type in the league... but that is the furthest thing from what we are running schematically in Chicago. If I'm Pace and Nagy, I fortify the offensive line, ensure a commitment to the run game, and do everything I can to acquire a top-tier TE that this offense so desperately requires.

Can we say they gave up too early on Tannehill? I mean they dropped that huge contract on him... I'd say they failed more by not giving him good coaching. I feel like Nagy is a much better coach and has done everything he can so far to bring the best out of Trubisky. Trying his best to make the game easier for him...

Sadly teams in the currently MASSIVE QB contract era of the NFL don't have the luxury of waiting and hoping for the best... his cap number is escalating to 9m this season and if they accept the 5th year option it escalates to 25m+ for the 5th year... just don't want to get locked into a contract with a guy who needs help to be average... if anything this super bowl should show just how important it is to have a great QB... yes, you can win with Jimmy G but he's not gonna get you past a great QB...

I'd like to see the team keep trying on QBs until they find the right one... be bold like Arizona and not be afraid to select another 1st round QB the year after using a 1st round pick on a QB if the new prospect appears to be better than the other one... I would have either kept the first QB to battle with the new QB or I would have traded him on draft day to get more picks rather than wait after the draft... being bold is how KC ended up with Mahomes and GB ended up with Rodgers and SF ended up with Young... none of those teams NEEDED a QB, they had starters locked in... being content and waiting until you absolutely need a replacement QB and then you are forced to try and pick the best of the available group, which as we have seen in the past can be a group of awful choices, is how you end up with Cade McNown...

[BamaBear09]

@G08...I don't agree with the sentiment that the Dolphins gave up on Taneyhill too soon. I think he wasn't fitting in to what they were doing when they had to make that decision so they moved on, it's a different thing. It's relevant because I think we're in the same situation with Mitch. I think Mitch is a bad fit for Nagy's offense, who may "turn it around" if he got to another team that played an offense more tailored to his strengths. Kyle Long said roughly the same thing, I think he's right.

It just feels to me like Pace needs to decide between Mitch and Nagy.

I love Kyle Long but his analysis is off by a ton... if you bring in Trubisky to be an I-formation play action QB, you don't go and hire a spread WCO HC to be his groomer... also I don't think Trubisky is an I-formation QB considering he played in the shotgun spread his year in college and the shotgun is normally used for younger guys to allow them to see the field better...

[G08]

@G08...I don't agree with the sentiment that the Dolphins gave up on Taneyhill too soon. I think he wasn't fitting in to what they were doing when they had to make that decision so they moved on, it's a different thing. It's relevant because I think we're in the same situation with Mitch. I think Mitch is a bad fit for Nagy's offense, who may "turn it around" if he got to another team that played an offense more tailored to his strengths. Kyle Long said roughly the same thing, I think he's right.

It just feels to me like Pace needs to decide between Mitch and Nagy.

Yeah that's fair, extremely poor word choice on my behalf. He was there for 7 seasons for fuck's sake (missed all of 2017).

I guess my over-arching point is that I would hate -- HATE -- for us to give up too quickly on the most inexperienced QB ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 1967 (post-merger).

I don't think Pace is the type to double down on a mistake, but we'll learn a lot about what he has in mind as this off-season progresses.

[G08]

@G08...I don't agree with the sentiment that the Dolphins gave up on Taneyhill too soon. I think he wasn't fitting in to what they were doing when they had to make that decision so they moved on, it's a different thing. It's relevant because I think we're in the same situation with Mitch. I think Mitch is a bad fit for Nagy's offense, who may "turn it around" if he got to another team that played an offense more tailored to his strengths. Kyle Long said roughly the same thing, I think he's right.

It just feels to me like Pace needs to decide between Mitch and Nagy.

I love Kyle Long but his analysis is off by a ton... if you bring in Trubisky to be an I-formation play action QB, you don't go and hire a spread WCO HC to be his groomer... also I don't think Trubisky is an I-formation QB considering he played in the shotgun spread his year in college and the shotgun is normally used for younger guys to allow them to see the field better...

I think he was saying that Trubisky was drafted by a regime that believed heavily in pounding the rock, moving the pocket, and taking shots off play-action. A stupider (Loggains) version of what Kyle Shanahan is doing in San Fran.

[southdakbearfan]

Good coaches adjust to talents strengths.

Bad coaches coach the dolphins, release a qb and watch him lead the nfl in passer rating for another team.

At any given time there are 3-5 maybe qbs that don’t need certain things like a great line, receiving Corp or something else around them to be effective. Mahomes, Wilson come to mind right off, maybe that puke Rogers and Brees. A young Big Ben and Brady have done it in the past. Brady is hard to judge on this because was it him falling off or having no wr or TE talent. Watson is fun to watch but they haven’t won anything while having a stellar defense.

Then there are probably 10-15 qbs that could go far in the playoffs with the right management and team around them. The number could be higher or lower but it’s so hard to tell because 2-4 plays a game are really the difference.

What’s the point? QBs are fickle. Tannehill sucks in Miami and then leads the league in passer rating for the titans. Cutler has the tools but never the talent around him. Dalton can’t win a playoff game. Brees get ran out of San Diego then turns into a hof qb in New Orleans. Young sucks for the bucs and turns into a hof qb for San Fran.

For 95% of successful qbs it’s a combo of talent, coaching and teams around them meshing up.

[crueltyabc]

All of this ex-Dolphins QB talk got me thinking I wouldn't mind Rosen as an alternative to a late round flier. He could be had for a 5th or 6th rounder and an extra million bucks or so. I loved him going into the draft and wonder if he's truly ruined/bust yet.

[wab]

All of this ex-Dolphins QB talk got me thinking I wouldn't mind Rosen as an alternative to a late round flier. He could be had for a 5th or 6th rounder and an extra million bucks or so. I loved him going into the draft and wonder if he's truly ruined/bust yet.

I really thought Rosen was going to be special in AZ. I'd absolutely be on board with him being a Bear. He kinda has a punchy face, but man he has amazing touch on his throws.

[UOK]

I'd be okay with Rosen coming in on a tryout basis. I personally think he blows.

[IE]

All of this ex-Dolphins QB talk got me thinking I wouldn't mind Rosen as an alternative to a late round flier. He could be had for a 5th or 6th rounder and an extra million bucks or so. I loved him going into the draft and wonder if he's truly ruined/bust yet.

His stats are horrible, but I suspect he's better than that. I mean think about it... the guy's confidence had to be down a bit after being traded after 1 year. And then he was trotted out there to start the season against Baltimore, NE, Dallas at Dallas (it mattered) and the Chargers. Talk about getting mind-fucked. By the Washington game he had to be totally lost, and ready to sit.

Considering the Bears' needs, I think getting a guy like that would probably indicate a lot more confidence on Mitch than I personally have, given what we've seen out of Rosen. If Mitch continued to struggle, I don't know if we'd even see Daniel's level of competence out there in substitution.

There is probably a lot of upside to the guy, though. He's only 23 NOW going into year 3 of his career.

And think of the potential nickname scenarios with a QB named Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen. MUCH much better than trying to work with Mitch Trubisky. LOL

[Drone7]

Put me down for trying to get Rosen. Not expensive to acquire. More natural passer than Trubisky with better pocket fundamentals. Seems intelligent.

Legit questions about his leadership, mental toughness, but maybe the past 2 years humbled him. AZ had a lousy OL his rookie year and the Dolphins' OL played poorly when he was thrust into the lineup on a rebuilding team in meltdown trade assets mode. Vet Fitz was more quick to pick up the O and rally the beleaguered remnants down the stretch (which was impressive)

Anyway, he has upside and getting him early would allow him time to pick up a complex new O (for the third time)

[BreadNCircuses]

Josh Rosen over Trubisky...

Josh Rosen... career numbers: 54.8% completion percentage, 2.4 TD%, 3.8 Int %

Over 63.4% completion percentage, 3.8 TD%, 2.3 Int %

I'm not even going to try and be diplomatic, that's fucking stupid.

[The Cooler King]

I don't know if I'd go past a conditional pick for Rosen honestly. He could end up on the waiver wire for all we know after 53 man cuts.

[wab]

Josh Rosen over Trubisky...

Josh Rosen... career numbers: 54.8% completion percentage, 2.4 TD%, 3.8 Int %

Over 63.4% completion percentage, 3.8 TD%, 2.3 Int %

I'm not even going to try and be diplomatic, that's fucking stupid.

Where did someone say they would take Rosen "over Trubisky"?

[G08]

G08 those stats are garbage in that context.

Will Mitch break out as a 100 rated passer in year 3* like Wentz? No, because Wentz broke out as a 100 rated passer in year 2, the same year that Mitch put up a 83 rating.

*in this system

Wentz has been in the same offense his entire career, keep in mind.

[G08]

And rolling with Mitch is definitely a pragmatic decision for 2020 if for no other reason than the Bears are limited in resources to upgrade the position, let alone the other holes. So, I agree let's give him another whirl and hope he is a late developer, but G08 has tried to spin this system BS before and make Mitch's development look normal and it's just patently false. Other QBs in the Reid scheme have done just fine picking it up and seeing positive play fairly quickly.

What spin, exactly?

I've shown you their numbers in the offense at the exact same point in their careers in terms of starts in said offense. I've shown how established veterans like Alex Smith put up the best numbers of his NFL career year 5 in this offense. I'm not sure what more transparency you want from me here...

[southdakbearfan]

Fuck it, sign Jay.

[G08]

I think if I'm guilty of one thing when it comes to player development (in any sport) it is that I always give the benefit of the doubt to dedicated, hard-working, talented athletes.

[The Cooler King]

G08 those stats are garbage in that context.

Will Mitch break out as a 100 rated passer in year 3* like Wentz? No, because Wentz broke out as a 100 rated passer in year 2, the same year that Mitch put up a 83 rating.

*in this system

Wentz has been in the same offense his entire career, keep in mind.

Carson put up year two numbers, "in the system" that Mitch hasn't touched in two years in the system. You've several times tried to make year 3 look like his breakout year by combining his first two year numbers and it's some of the most disengenous and outright false bullshit I've seen.

[G08]

*in this system

Wentz has been in the same offense his entire career, keep in mind.

Carson put up year two numbers, "in the system" that Mitch hasn't touched in two years in the system. You've several times tried to make year 3 look like his breakout year by combining his first two year numbers and it's some of the most disengenous and outright false bullshit I've seen.

I think it's fairly standard knowledge that QBs are expected to have this West Coast derivative offense click in year 3. Having 4 years of college experience in a pro-style system helps with development as well, but I'm sure some will say "stop making excuses".


Regardless, if you want to call my highlight of these facts disingenuous and outright false bullshit, I won't stop ya. I will ask where the anger comes from, though.

[docc]

All of this balder all..we gonna see Mitch play this year.. We as fans can watch..yell..happy or miserable..
Backups..? Need to be cheap..get us an O line repair..

[The Cooler King]

Carson put up year two numbers, "in the system" that Mitch hasn't touched in two years in the system. You've several times tried to make year 3 look like his breakout year by combining his first two year numbers and it's some of the most disengenous and outright false bullshit I've seen.

I think it's fairly standard knowledge that QBs are expected to have this West Coast derivative offense click in year 3. Having 4 years of college experience in a pro-style system helps with development as well, but I'm sure some will say "stop making excuses".


Regardless, if you want to call my highlight of these facts disingenuous and outright false bullshit, I won't stop ya. I will ask where the anger comes from, though.

I've honestly never heard that 3 year rule, but the Reid tree guys you keep listing all showed pretty early results, at least by year 2. That's even if you want to go back to McNabb who was a really bad rookie in 6 games his first year, then was league average by year two, and top 10 by year 3. Mike Vick, after sitting out of football for two years also put up pretty early strong results. To me, all signs point to it actually being pretty QB friendly.

And angry I guess, but it irks me that you keep trying to paint Wentz's year three as his breakout as support for your cause and get called out and keep pretending it was. His year 2 and 3 results were nearly the same by passer rating and year 2 was the better QBR. But just keep tacking on his rookie results (when most QBs suck) and act like he broke out in year 3. Cool cool cool.