HisRoyalSweetness wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Richie wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 11:42 am
It's hard to dress up 6th highest run ratio as being "Oh, well... it was just all of the scrambles". Mitch also rarely scrambled last year.
Which of course is not what I suggested. I was just posing the question about how the stats re. pass/rush are calculated and whether they factor in details such as sacks and scrambles or not. I don’t know the answer. Do you?
As we have seen unfold in this thread. Conjecture often falls on its face. Facts/data go a long way. Can you back this claim up?
Here are a few whole game examples:
Wildcard Game 2019 vs the Eagles
Jordan Howard had finished the season strongly. In the last 5 games he averaged 17.5 carries and 80 rushing yards a game at 4.5 ypc and he scored 4 TDs. He finished the regular season with his best game of the year, a 109 yard, 5.3 ypc, 2 TD effort against the Vikings. The following week in a close, low scoring game against the Eagles he got just 10 carries despite half of them gaining 5 yards or more.
Week 1 2019 vs the Packers
The Bears only ran the ball 15 times (including a Trubisky scramble) and 11 of those carries came in the first quarter. Every one gained yardage with 7 of them gaining at least 4 yards. Yet in a game that finished 10 - 3 they only ran 4 more times the rest of the game.
Week 7 2019 vs the Saints
The Bears only ran the ball 7 times in the whole game, which was Trubisky's first back from injury and following their bye-week. The score was 12 - 10 at half time.
I know you sort of touched on this... but it's a classic conflating of correlation/causation. A huge reason nothing opens up in the run game is because defense's have ZERO respect for our passing attack. That list is also a whole lot of name power, but not much else. Rivers and Brady are on their last legs and played poorly. Their passing games were bad too. Goff has been largely exposed going back to mid-late 2018.
I could also arbitrarily cut this off at "teams who average less than 100 YPG on the ground" and boom... KC/Mahomes appears.
One of those 7 teams was also TB. Who passed at a fantastic clip and possessed the #1 overall passing offense. Winston's issues with his rating stems from his turnovers. However, there was zero issue moving the ball.
Brady and Goff led their teams to the Super Bowl earlier in the year, Brady's third in a row, and Ryan was only a couple of years removed from doing the same whilst winning league MVP. Rivers had taken the Chargers to the playoffs in 2018 too. All but Brady had passer ratings of over 100 in 2018 and his wasn’t far short at 97.7. Targets of the calibre of Julio Jones, Keenan Allen and Austin Hooper can't be ignored either.
Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.5/3.8
Quarterback Passer Rating: 108.1/92.1
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 15%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 17%
Los Angeles Chargers - Philip Rivers
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.7/4.0
Quarterback Passer Rating: 105.5/88.5
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 15%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 16%
Los Angeles Rams - Jared Goff
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.9/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 101.1/86.5
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 24%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 14%
New England Patriots - Tom Brady
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.3/3.8
Quarterback Passer Rating: 97.7/88.0
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 12%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 10%
Chicago Bears - Mitch Trubisky
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.1/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 95.4/83.0
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 10%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 13%
Tampa Bay Buccanneers - Jameis Winston
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 3.9/3.7
Quarterback Passer Rating: 90.2/84.3
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 7%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 5%
Cincinatti Bengals - Andy Dalton
2018/2019
Team Rushing Average (ypc): 4.7/3.9
Quarterback Passer Rating: 89.6/78.3
Team Rushing Average (ypc): Down 17%
Quarterback Passer Rating: Down 13%
I find hard it hard to conclude that all these QBs’ passer ratings and their teams’ rushing averages fell so substantially from one year to the next simply because their personal play did, especially those who were amongst the best in the league just a season before. Winston was the QB whose rating was least impacted by the fall in ypc which was relatively small.
Teams that run effectively, as indicated by a good ypc, open up their offense to be successful by staying ahead of the chains, whether that is by continuing to run like the Ravens and Titans last year or via passing like the Chiefs. Whether you apportion the blame to the QBs for a poor ypc or not, this notion doesn’t alter.
I agree that the run game needs to improve. I think a lot of it has to do with Nagy adjusting his scheme.
I just don't agree that we need to have more of a commitment to it.
I agree with you to a large degree. The running game just has to be effective and Nagy has to keep mixing in runs to keep the defense honest. It doesn’t need to dominate his play calling.